Twitter-ific Preview: Mountain West and WAC

It's almost time, can you feel it? We're just a little more than 3 weeks away from kickoff of the 2009 college football season, so its time for my iron-clad predictions for each conference race. Since Twitter is all the rage with kids now, my predictions will come in scrumptuous, bite size blurbs. Rest asured though, a lot of thought, effort, and excel spreadsheets went into these predictons. After the predictions, I'll give you an interesting fact about each team you may not have known, followed by a short statistical prose about a player or team from the particular conference I happen to be previewing. Theres something for everyone here. If all you want is some nuggets of insight, you can be happily on your way, but if you want a more polished look at the conference feel free to stay and read the whole thing. I'm doing this Noah-style, as we'll go two-by-two until the season starts. This week, we examine the Mountain West and the WAC.

Mountain West Prediction

Mountain West: Muy Interesante

WAC Prediction

WAC: Muy Interesante

Which Utah Team is Better? 2004 or 2008

The long and arduous offseason is an excellent time to reflect on the season that was. 2008 was unique in that it ended with a team from outside the 6 BCS leagues ranked as high as #2 in the nation in some polls. The Utah Utes finished the season 13-0 with a victory over Alabama in the Sugar Bowl. 4 season earlier, Utah also finished undefeated (12-0) with a victory over Pitt in the Fiesta Bowl. Which Utah team was better? Let's break it down by the numbers and decide. We'll start with SDPI. I won't go into detail explaining it again, as there are numerous posts on this blog dealing with the subject. Here are the yardage SDPI rankings (Mountain West games only) for Utah in 2004 and 2008.The 2004 version of the Utes was stronger than the 2008 version against their conference brethren. In 2004, the team with the second highest SDPI in the league was BYU. Their rating of 0.90 is more than 1 full standard deviation below Utah's. In 2008, Utah did not even have the best SDPI in the league. That honor belongs to the TCU Horned Frogs who posted an SDPI nearly double that of the Utes at 2.92. If you feel like reading my previous write-up of the Mountain West in 2008, the link is here. If we stopped here we would have to give a huge edge to 2004 Utah. But let's look at some other stats.

In 2004, Utah's 12 opponents finished with a combined record of 61-76. They faced only 4 teams that finished the season with winning records. None of those 4 teams (Texas A&M, New Mexico, Wyoming, and Pitt) finished better than 8-4. The 2008 team played 13 games, but one of those was against IAA Weber State. If we leave the Wildcats out of the equation, the 12 IA teams Utah played finished with a combined record of 78-73. Utah beat 6 teams that finished with winning records (Air Force, Oregon State, Colorado State, TCU, BYU, and Alabama), including 3 that finished with at least 10 wins (TCU, BYU, and Alabama). Here are teams that finished the season ranked in the t0p-25 that were beaten by Utah in 2004 and 2008.As you can see, the 2008 Utah team had a much tougher schedule and pulled some much bigger scalps. They defeated 2 legitimate top-10 teams, while the 2004 team beat one fringe top-25 team.

Another way to measure schedule strength is to look at 2nd order wins. 2nd order wins are wins by teams that you have beaten. Here are the 2nd order top-25 wins (teams that finished in the top-25) for both Utah teams.Both teams have 5 2nd order top-25 wins, but clearly again the heft belongs to the 2008 team. The 2008 team has 4 2nd order wins in the top-15, including a top-5 2nd order win, whereas the 2004 team has one solitary 2nd order win in the top-15. Here's a break down of the 2nd order wins. In 2004, Utah beat North Carolina, who upset later Miami. Utah also beat New Mexico and Texas A&M, who both went on to beat Texas Tech. They also beat Arizona, who upset their rival Arizona State. Finally, they defeated Pitt in the Fiesta Bowl. The Panthers had beaten Boston College earlier in the year. In 2008, Utah beat Oregon State, who had previously knocked off Southern Cal. They beat TCU, who had already defeated BYU and would go on to defeat Boise State in the Poinsettia Bowl. Finally, in the Sugar Bowl, Utah upset Alabama, who had previously defeated both Georgia and Ole Miss.

Lastly, here are some sundry statistics.As you can see, the 2004 team was much more dominant, winning games by an average of 6 points per game more than the 2008 team. The 2008 team was involved in 5 games decided by 7 points or less, including 4 decided by 3 points or less. They won all 5. No team came closer than 14 points against the 2004 team. The 2004 team was much better offensively, with future number one pick Alex Smith running Urban Meyer's offense to perfection (it will never work in the SEC). The 2008 team was much better on defense with second round pick Paul Kruger causing nightmares for opposing offenses with a team-leading 7.5 sacks. The final column is Pythagorean Win %, which is calculated by dividing the square of the points scored by the sum of the squares of the points scored and points allowed (actually to the power of 2.37 to be exact). The Pythagorean Win % rewards better defenses, as you can by the small difference in winning percentage despite the large gap in point differential.

So who's better? Well, if you totally ignore schedule strength, the 2004 team is the pick. They were never challenged all season and were clearly the dominant force in the Mountain West. However, schedule strength is vital to correctly ranking teams. Going undefeated in the Sun Belt is nowhere near as difficult as going undefeated in the SEC. For that reason, I have to give the nod to the 2008 team. Despite possibly not being the best team in their conference, the fact that they beat 2 top-10 teams as well as a host of other solid teams is impossible to ignore. Perhaps if the BCS had given us what we really wanted, an Auburn/Utah Sugar Bowl in 2004, we might know just how good that Utah team was. Unfortunately, the Utes were matched up against the weakest BCS team from that season, and we can only wonder how sweet that Sugar Bowl could have been.

A Brief History of the WAC

If you pulled a Rip Van Winkle or Captain America and took a long nap or just chilled in suspended animation beginning in the fall of 1995 and just woke up a few minutes ago, lemme tell ya, the WAC you know is no more ;(

In 1995, the WAC consisted of 10 teams--Air Force, BYU, Colorado State, Fresno State, Hawaii, New Mexico, San Diego State, Utah, UTEP, and Wyoming. Prior to the 1996 season, the WAC added 6 more teams (UNLV, TCU, Rice, SMU, Tulsa, and San Jose State) and split into two divisions. The conference hosted a championship game for three seasons (1996-1998), but by 1999, half the league had had enough. Air Force, BYU, Colorado State, New Mexico, San Diego State, UNLV, Utah, and Wyoming split to form the Mountain West. The remaining 8 teams soldiered on as the WAC, and prior to the 2000 season added Nevada to bring their membership to 9 teams. TCU bolted after the 2000 season, but the WAC, in perhaps their shrewdest manuever extended an invite to a relatively unknown program that played their home games on a blue field--Boise State. The WAC also added Louisiana Tech that season, givng them 10 teams. This formation lasted an eternity (4 seasons), but prior to the 2005 season, Rice, SMU, UTEP, and Tulsa left to join Conference USA. The WAC responded to this exodus by adding 3 teams from the dregs of IA football--Idaho, New Mexico State, and Utah State. This incarnation of the WAC will begin its 5th season of play shortly, thus making it the most stable version of the WAC in the last decade and a half. If you were scoring at home, only 2 teams remain from the 1995 version of the WAC (Fresno State and Hawaii).

Twitter-ific Preview: Pac-10 and SEC

It's almost time, can you feel it? We're just a little more than 4 weeks away from kickoff of the 2009 college football season, so its time for my iron-clad predictions for each conference race. Since Twitter is all the rage with kids now, my predictions will come in scrumptuous, bite size blurbs. Rest asured though, a lot of thought, effort, and excel spreadsheets went into these predictons. After the predictions, I'll give you an interesting fact about each team you may not have known, followed by a short statistical prose about a player or team from the particular conference I happen to be previewing. Theres something for everyone here. If all you want is some nuggets of insight, you can be happily on your way, but if you want a more polished look at the conference feel free to stay and read the whole thing. I'm doing this Noah-style, as we'll go two-by-two until the season starts. This week, we examine the Pac-10 and SEC.

Pac-10 Prediction

Pac-10: Muy Interesante

SEC Prediction

SEC: Muy Interesante

Sgt Stroughter

Over the past three seasons, the Oregon State Beavers have acquitted themselves as the best team in the Pac-10 not named Southern Cal. The Beavers are 19-8 versus conference foes in that span, three games behind the Trojans and three games clear of Oregon and Cal. In addition, the Beavers are the only team to have beaten the Trojans twice in that same time period. One big reason for the Beaver's success has been the play of wide receiver Sammie Stroughter. I am now going to construct an argument, albeit, a potentially circumstantial and arbitrary one, identifying Stroughter as the most important member of the Oregon State offense. The following table lists the Oregon State cumulative team passing numbers from 2005 and 2006.Why is this important you ask? In 2005, Stroughter was a sophomore who rarely saw the field on offense. He caught only 5 passes all season and was used primarily as a punt and kickoff returner. As a junior in 2006, Stroughter emerged as a playmaker, catching 74 balls for 1293 yards. The team's passing as a whole also improved dramatically. The primary quarterback in both 2005 and 2006 was Matt Moore, who plays in the NFL. It's entirely possible Moore's improvement was simply the natural progression of an NFL-caliber player, but its hard to ignore the effect Stroughter's emergence had on the team's passing game. The next table lists the team passing numbers from 2007 and 2008.As a senior in 2007, Stroughter played in only four games and caught passes in only two (15 catches on the season). He was able to obtain a redshirt for a fifth season of eligibility. As a healthy fifth-year senior in 2008, Stroughter caught 70 passes and gained 1040 yards. Once again the team's passing fortunes improved with further contributions from Strougter. Just like in 05/06 there was no new quarterback in 07/08. Sean Canfield and Lyle Moevao split time in 2007, with Canfield throwing about twice the number of passes as Moevao. Both were terrible, sporting quarterback ratings of 106.38 for Canfield and 98.77 for Moevao. Both also played markedly better in 2008. Moevao took the majority of the snaps, and posted a quarterback rating of 128.41. In limited action, Canfield posted a rating of 155.78. Again, perhaps their improvement just happened to coincide with the return of Stroughter. Both men are back for their senior seasons in 2009. Keep an eye on how well they perform sans Stroughter. If they regress significantly, it will become increasingly difficult to decry the passing game's improvement with Stroughter as happenstance.

Revenge of the Smith

Know who was second in the SEC in rushing yards per game last season? Know who is the second-leading returning rusher in 2009? They're the same person. Michael Smith from Arkansas was second in the SEC in rushing yards per game last season (behind Knowshon Moreno) and was fourth overall in rushing yardage behind Moreno, Glen Coffee, and Charles Scott. Smith accomplished this feat despite missing two games (the season opener against Western Illinois and the finale against LSU) and playing for an Arkansas team that went only 5-7. Smith is overshadowed, not only because of his somewhat generic last name, but also because of those who came before him. In Smith's first two seasons at Arkansas, he backed up one of the most explosive running back duos in college football history--Darren McFadden and Felix Jones. In 2006 and 2007, McFadden and Jones combined for 5807 yards rushing and 47 touchdowns. While Smith won't come close to matching those prodigious numbers, but he would be a wise choice to snatch up for your collegiate fantasy football team and is a darkhorse contender for the Doak Walker Award, given annually to the nation's top running back. Here are a few reasons why.

1. Despite having a reputation as a quarterback guru, running backs under Bobby Petrino have also posted some pretty good numbers. At Louisville in 2004, top-running back Eric Shelton gained 938 yards on the ground and scored 20 touchdowns. In 2005, top-runner Michael Bush gained 1143 yards and scored 23 touchdowns. Petrino used more of a committee approach in his first (2003) and last season (2006) at Louisville, but if Smith establishes himself as the go-to guy, Petrino will not be shy about giving him touches.

2. Arkansas should be better this season. Last season, Arkansas lost games by 35, 42, and 31 points (to Alabama, Texas, and Florida). Arkansas ran the ball an average of 27 times in those three games. In their other 9 games, the Hogs ran the ball an average of 33 times per game. Fewer blowout losses and more wins mean more runs, and more runs means more potential touches for Smith.

3. The passing game should be better. No offense to Casey Dick, but he wasn't exactly the prototypical quarterback Bobby Petrino desires. For his career, Dick completed about 55.6% of his passes, with 2008 his best season at 57.4%. At Louisville, Petrino's quarterbacks never completed fewer than 60.5% of their passes over an entire season. Stepping in to replace Dick is Ryan Mallet, the top-rated recruit from 2007, who began his career at Michigan. I'd wager any amount that Petrino is able to coax at worst a solid season, and potentially a great season, out of Mallet. And if opponents have to fear the passing game for the first time since the days of Clint Stoerner, that should open more lanes for Smith in the running game.

4. Smith has value as a receiver. No, he's not Reggie Bush, but Smith was second on the team in catches last season (32) and sixth in yards (298). From the looks of things, a lot of those were dump-offs from Dick, so he may see his catches drop, but with the defense likely concerned with bigger threats further down the field, he could see his yardage and touchdown totals increase.

If he can stay healthy, Michael Smith may just well be the best running back in the SEC in 2009.

Twitter-ific Preview: Big 10 and Big 12

It's almost time, can you feel it? We're just a little more than 5 weeks away from kickoff of the 2009 college football season, so its time for my iron-clad predictions for each conference race. Since Twitter is all the rage with kids now, my predictions will come in scrumptuous, bite size blurbs. Rest asured though, a lot of thought, effort, and excel spreadsheets went into these predictons. After the predictions, I'll give you an interesting fact about each team you may not have known, followed by a short statistical prose about a player or team from the particular conference I happen to be previewing. Theres something for everyone here. If all you want is some nuggets of insight, you can be happily on your way, but if you want a more polished look at the conference feel free to stay and read the whole thing. I'm doing this Noah-style, as we'll go two-by-two until the season starts. This week, we examine the Big 10 and Big 12.

Big 10 Prediction

Big 10: Muy Interesante

Big 12 Prediction

Big 12: Muy Interesante

Beating the Workhorse: Javon Ringer

By all accounts, Javon Ringer had a pretty successful senior season at Michigan State. Ringer finished fourth in the nation in rushing yards (1637), fourth in rushing yards per game (125.92), and first in rushing touchdowns (22). The Spartans also won 9 games for the first time since 1999 (10-2). But did his coach (Mark Dantonio) hamper his performance and potentially his NFL future by giving him the ball too much? I think a cogent arguement can be made that he did. In the first 9 games of the season, Ringer carried the ball 300 times and gained 1373 yards for an average of 4.58 yards per rush. Ringer had 6 100-yard games and his low yardage total was 67 against Ohio State; a game in which the Spartans fell behind early and had to abandon the running game in a 45-7 loss. In the final 4 games of the season, Ringer carried the ball 90 times and gained only 264 yards for an average of 2.93 yards per rush. He had only a single 100-yard game and failed to average over 3 yards per rush in the other 3 games. I don't think there is any doubt Ringer tired as the season progressed. Did Ringer really need to carry the ball 34 times in an easy win over Eastern Michigan or 43 times in a shutout of Florida Atlantic? In the four-game span that included the aforementioned games as well as Notre Dame and Indiana, Ringer carried the ball 160 times! In addition, all this work was being piled on a back who is just a shade over 200 pounds and had carried the ball 453 times in the previous 3 seasons combined. 390 totes is just too many to give a college player, no matter how special they are. For point of reference, only 10 times in the NFL has a player been given 390 carries, and their season is of course, 3 games longer. I hope for Mr. Ringer's sake that his career is not irreparably damaged by the beating Dantonio allowed him to absorb. I imagine the Tennessee Titans hope so as well.

Aren't First Round Quarterbacks Supposed to be Good?

Aside from the Raiders selection of Darrius Heyward-Bey, I thought the most questionable first round pick in the 2009 NFL Draft was Josh Freeman by the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. In the last 4 drafts, 10 quarterbacks have been selected in the first round. The chart below lists their numbers in their final season of college ball against BCS conference foes (and Notre Dame). Notice Joe Flacco is not on the list as he played his college ball at a IAA school (Delaware).Freeman has the lowest completion percentage, the third lowest yards per pass attempt, by far the fewest touchdowns, and the lowest quarterback rating of the bunch. Some might note the relatively pedestrian totals of Jay Cutler and Matt Ryan and posit that Freeman can make a similar transition to the NFL. I disagree for several reasons. For starters, Jay Cutler played at Vanderbilt, a school traditionally lacking top-end talent. Cutler probably fainted when he found discovered the caliber of players he would be able to throw to in Denver. Both Cutler and Ryan also played in conferences more conducive to defense than the 2009 incarnation of the Big 12. Big 12 teams allowed roughly 431 yards per game on average in league play last season. The second most offensive BCS league was the Big 10 where teams allowed about 352 yards per game in conference play. Finally, both Cutler and Ryan were seniors. Freeman left school a year early. Cutler and Ryan were 23 when they were in NFL training camps. Freeman is only 21. Asking him to develop in the professional ranks when he had trouble against Kansas and Colorado does not seem like the foundation on which Super Bowl dreams are built.

Twitter-ific Preview: ACC and Big East

It's almost time, can you feel it? We're just a little more than 6 weeks away from kickoff of the 2009 college football season, so its time for my iron-clad predictions for each conference race. Since Twitter is all the rage with kids now, my predictions will come in scrumptuous, bite size blurbs. Rest asured though, a lot of thought, effort, and excel spreadsheets went into these predictons. After the predictions, I'll give you an interesting fact about each team you may not have known, followed by a short statistical prose about a player or team from the particular conference I happen to be previewing. Theres something for everyone here. If all you want is some nuggets of insight, you can be happily on your way, but if you want a more polished look at the conference feel free to stay and read the whole thing. I'm doing this Noah-style, as we'll go two-by-two until the season starts. First off are the ACC and Big East.

ACC Prediction

ACC: Muy Interesante

Big East Prediction

Big East: Muy Interesante

Russell Wilson: An Encore Performance?

Last season Russell Wilson was a big reason why NC State played in their first bowl game since 2005. He was the top-rated passer in the ACC and under his guidance, the Wolfpack had the league's second best offense. He was also dangerous with his feet, accounting for 388 yards and four touchdowns on the ground. However, what Wilson did better than any player in college football last season was avoid throwing interceptions. He threw one solitary in pick 275 passes, for a microscopic interception rate of 0.36%. Robert Hooke would have had trouble seeing that rate. How likely is Wilson to continue his vigilant ways with the football in 2009? To answer that question, I looked at all quarterbacks since 2004 who: were underclassmen that returned the folllowing season, threw at least 200 passes, and had an interception rate of 1.5% or less. I had to use 1.5% as the cutoff point because if we drop it any lower, there would be practically no sample. Wilson was certainly operating on a different level in 2008. Those criteria gave us 10 gentlemen: Omar Jacobs (Bowling Green 04), Reggie McNeal (Tx A&M 04), Matt Leinart (So Cal 04), Rudy Carpenter (Ari St 05), Stephen McGee (Tx A&M 06), Colin Kaepernick (Nevada 07), Drew Weatherford (Fla St 07), Tom Brandstater (Fresno St 07), Nate Davis (Ball St 07), Cullen Harper (Clemson 07). I threw out Weatherford because he didn't play significantly the following season (23 pass attempts as Christian Ponder took the reigns of the offense). Here are the combined stat lines of those 9 quarterbacks (sans Weatherford) in their low interception year along with Wilson's from last season. The first thing that jumps out at you is those other players were much more accurate passers than Wilson. Their combined completion percentage is nearly 8 percentage points better than Wilson's. Of those 9 players, only McNeal (58.1%), Kaepernick (53.8%), and Davis (56.5%) completed less than 60% of their passes. In fact, the 9 combined quarterbacks bested Wilson in every category except interception percentage. They averaged more yards per pass, threw touchdowns more often, and had a higher quarterback rating. Now here is what happened to those players the following season. On average, the quarterbacks stayed pretty good. Their completion percentage dropped a little, their yards per pass dropped a little, their touchdown percentage dropped a little, their interception percentage more than doubled, and their quarterback rating dropped a little. All the other stats dropped a little , but interception percentage changed the most. Why? I think its safe to say, all these quarterbacks enjoyed a modicum of good luck in their low interception season. Defensive players likely dropped a few picks and some were probably nullified by defensive penalties. In the next season, their luck just evened out. For the most part, these were still good players the following season (Cullen Harper is open to debate), but they were not able to duplicate their extreme performance. The same will more than likely be true for Mr. Wilson. He's already proven himself to be much less accurate than his peers, so a few of those passes that hit the turf in 08 will likely find their way into defender's hands in 09. That's not saying he won't be one of the top quarterbacks in the conference this season, as he most certainly should be provided he stays healthy, just that his interception total will likely 'balloon' at least compared to last season. One final note on this little study. The two players who declined the most from one season to the next, Carpenter and Harper, were also two of the three quarterbacks who had negative rushing totals in their low interception season (Matt Leinart was the other, but he had the benefit of playing alongside a stable full of future NFL players). Could elusive, athletic quarterbacks, be more likely to post low interception totals? Hopefully I'll find some time to answer this query in the near future.

The Big East: A League With No Favorite

Sorry Big East fans, this won't be nearly as in-depth as the last issue. The Big East is by far the most wide-open BCS conference in 2009. Why? Look who's gone. Last season's two leading rushers (Donald Brown and LeSean McCoy) are gone. Syracuse, as if they needed any more bad news, is also without their own 1000-yard rusher from last season (Curtis Brinkley). Last season's two highest rated passers (Mike Teel and Pat White) are gone and Louisville and Connecticut also part ways with their starting quarterbacks (Hunter Cantwell and Tyler Lorenzen). Two of the league's three 1000-yard receivers (Kenny Britt and Dominick Goodman) are gone. The two players with the most sacks (Connor Barwin and Cody Brown) from last season are gone. The two players with the most tackles (Scott McKillop and Tyrone McKenzie) are gone. Three of the four defensive players with the most interceptions (Woodny Turenne, Mike Mickens, and Brandon Underwood) are gone. To say the league is in flux is an understatement. In bigger leagues, the personnel losses wouldn't be as significant, but when there are only 8 teams, attrition is magnified. My projection has South Florida taking the title, but if anyone other than Syracuse or Connecticut wins the championship, I wouldn't be surprised.

Sun Belt Review: 2005-2008

In addition to the SDPI posts, another offseason interest of mine has been to look at how each IA conference has shaken out since 2005. I chose 2005 as the starting point because that was the year the ACC expanded to 12 teams, the Big East added 3 new members and booted Temple, Conference USA added a championship game, the Mountain West added TCU, the WAC looted the Sun Belt after several of its members joined Conference USA, and the Sun Belt added 2 independents from Florida (FAU and FIU). Since 2005, there has only been one change in any IA conference. That was the expansion of the MAC by a single team with the addition of Temple. Our little sojourn concludes with a look at the Sun Belt, where Troy has done their best Boise State impression over the past three years. First here are the cummlative Sun Belt standings since 2005.Not surprisingly, the team that has won or shared three consecutive league titles also owns the best record in the conference over the past four seasons. Troy is 18-3 over the past three seasons and their three losses have come by 7, 6, and a single point. Six of the conference's eight teams have winning records in the league, meaning they have abused the league whipping boys (Florida International and North Texas) with great regularity. If we remove games against the Golden Panthers and Mean Green from the equation, the conference standings look like this. Middle Tennessee State has the worst record against those two squads at 5-3. Combined, the other six teams in the Sun Belt are 40-8 against Florida International and North Texas since 2005 (32-4 since 2006). Every team in the league save Florida International and North Texas has at least shared one conference crown. Troy of course has won three straight, but Florida Atlantic shared the title with Troy in 2007, Middle Tennessee State shared it with Troy in 2006, and Arkansas State, Louisiana-Monroe, and Louisiana-Lafayette all split the title in 2005.

Now here is each team's home record in conference play since 2005.The Red Wolves from Arkansas State have set the pace for protecting their house in the Sun Belt. Troy is a close second at 11-3, just a single game behind. Only three teams have winning records at home (less than half the league). The biggest discrepancy between home and road record belongs to the Red Wolves. They are a fantastic 12-2 at home, but only 4-10 on the road, for a difference of 8 games.

Now here is how homefield advantage shakes out in the Sun Belt (in conference play only) with respect to the nation at large (with rank out of the 11 IA conferences in parentheses).Homefield advantage has become more pronounced in the past two seasons. Home teams in the Sun Belt have won at a 60% clip in league play since 2007, while leading the nation in home winning percentage in 2008. Contrast that with 2005-2006, when home teams won only 45% of the time. It remains to be seen if 2008 was an outlier or a sign of things to come.

Next up is how each Sun Belt team stacks up offensively for each season. This is the ranking of yards per game in conference play.The most consistently good offense in the Sun Belt has been the Ragin' Cajuns from Louisiana-Lafayette. Head coach Ricky Bustle, the former offensive coordinator at Virginia Tech, has seen his charges average over 250 yards per game on the ground in three of the past four seasons (lone exception was 2006). After finishing last in the Sun Belt in offense in 2005, Troy brought in offensive coordinator Tony Franklin to install one of those new fangled spread offenses and the results were pretty darn good. As you may have heard, Franklin headed across the state to Auburn where the spread didn't exactly take the league by storm. Part of that was personnel, part was attitude, and part was just plain bad luck. Franklin is now the offensive coordinator at Middle Tennessee State, a team that just happened to finish last in the Sun Belt in offense in 2008. Could history, in its idiosyncratic way, be alligned to repeat itself? Florida Atlantic's rise from also-ran to contender alligns perfectly with the development of Rusty Smith-the best amateur quarterback in Florida not named Tebow.

And finally, here are the defensive rankings for each team. This is yards allowed per game in conference play.Aside from a hiccup in 2006, Troy has been the standard bearer for defense in the Sun Belt. Arkansas State has also consistently been near the top of the Sun Belt defensive rankings, netting the silver medal three seasons running. On the other end of the spectrum is North Texas. The Mean Green have yet to finish higher than sixth on defense the past four seasons.

Sun Belt SDPI

One of my favorite set of posts from the past two offseasons has been the SDPI recap/early preview. Don't know what SDPI is? It stands for Standard Deviation Power Index and is a tool Eddie Epstein used in his book Dominance to rate pro football's best teams. The basic idea is to look at how far above or below average (by standard deviations) a specific team is relative to their conference brethren. Since each team plays the same number of conference games, it can give us a good idea about who the best team was within the conference. However, it cannot tell us which conference is better. But the purpose of these posts is not to determine which conference is superior, but rather project ahead which teams in a conference will be contenders or also rans in the upcoming season. In the first post on SDPI two years ago, I calculated SDPI based on points scored and allowed within conference play. Last season I used points scored and allowed as well as yards gained and allowed. This season, I'm sticking with yards only. The yardage version of SDPI has a better correlation with future performance than points, and including both last season made the post seem (at least to me) quite muddled. Of course, this is by no means, the end all be all rating system, but it can give us an idea of which teams will improve and decline in 2009. This is our last stop on the SDPI train, wherein we will examine the youngest IA conference, the Sun Belt.

If you want the meat of the article, skip this next paragraph as it just gives an example of how SDPI is calculated. The mean yardage for and against for all Sun Belt teams in conference play was 2758.625 yards. The standard deviation for yards gained was 220.3. The standard deviation for yards allowed was 362.97. Florida International gained 2583 yards in conference play and allowed 2731. Their offensive SDPI was -0.80 = ([2583-2758.625]/220.3). Their defensive SDPI was 0.08 = ([2758.625-2731]/362.97). Their total SDPI was -0.72 which ranked 5th in the conference.

To refresh your memory, here are the 2008 Sun Belt Standings.

Now here are the 2008 SDPI Standings sorted by total SDPI, with conference rank in offense, defense, and total SDPI in parentheses.

The SDPI standings allign pretty well with the actual standings. Troy and Louisiana-Lafayette (now known as just Louisiana) were the cream of the crop, followed by Arkansas State and Florida Atlantic. North Texas was by far the worst team in the league.

Best Offense: Louisiana-Lafayette 1.81
The Ragin Cajuns had an eye-popping offensive game when they took on state rival Louisiana-Monroe. The Cajuns tabulated 728 total yards and averaged an unheard of 12.1 yards per play. Running back Tyrell Fenroy had nearly 300 yards on the ground (297), quarterback Michael Desormeaux added 149 yards rushing, and receiver Jason Cherry had 92 yards on just a pair of carries.

Worst Offense: Middle Tennessee State -1.49
Outside of an offensive showcase against the moribund defense of North Texas (489 total yards), the Blue Raiders averaged only 324 yards per game against their Sun Belt brethren.

Best Defense: Troy 1.41
No Sun Belt team gained more than 358 yards against the Trojans. The Trojans also proved their worth outside the league, holding Ohio State to 309 yards in Columbus and LSU to 340 in Baton Rouge.

Worst Defense: North Texas -1.59
Probably the worst defense in all the land last season. They did manage to hold Florida International to 347 yards in their best effort of the season, though they still gave up 42 points.

Looking ahead to next season, the prohibitive favorite should be...

Troy
The Trojans have either won outright or shared three consecutive Sun Belt titles, and they stand a good chance at making it four straight in 2008. The league's third ranked offense returns both a senior quarterback, Levi Brown, who took over in the sixth game last season and proceeded to throw 15 touchdowns against just three interceptions, and a running back who netted over 1000 yards on the ground, junior DuJuan Harris. Brown also has his top-target back, junior receiver Jerrel Jernigan, who paced the team with 868 yards last season. The offense should improve upon last season's performance. As a Troy fan, the only concern I would have for the offense is that other teams may leapfrog them. Troy was third in the conference in offense last season, but they only averaged about 11 yards more per conference game than the sixth ranked team (North Texas). Troy was good offensively, but their margin over the other Sun Belt teams is not exceptionally large. At least on offense. On defense, Troy was head and shoulders above everyone in the Sun Belt last season. However, that unit does lose six starters, and in particular, three from a secondary that was 29th in the nation in pass defense and 18th in pass efficiency defense. That side of the ball may experience some growing pains, especially considering the Trojans open with three of their first four games on the road. Troy is as good a bet as anyone to win the Sun Belt, but this is not Boise State we're talking about. It won't be a cakewalk.

The team(s) you should be buying are...

North Texas
The Mean Green suffered through an embarrassing 1-11 year in 2008, including a winless Sun Belt campaign. Their lone victory was against Western Kentucky (Sun Belt member starting this season). North Texas was quite pathetic last season (easily the worst team in the conference), but there is reason to expect improvement. For starters, the Mean Green boasted (?) a turnover margin of -17 (117th in the nation) and -13 in league play (last). The primary reason for the poor turnover margin was the 17 interceptions they threw (102nd in the nation) and the fact that they lost two-thirds of their own fumbles (16 of 24). This is the third year of head coach Todd Dodge's spread offense, so the quarterback (likely Dodge's son Riley) should be playing with a more knowledgeable cast, and the interceptions should drop. North Texas should also have better luck falling on their own fumbles, so their turnover margin should improve. The defense, statistically the worst in the nation last season in both yards and points allowed, returns nine starters, including the top seven tacklers, so its virtually impossible for that unit not to improve slightly. North Texas won't go bowling in 2008, but they have a realistic shot of matching their win total in coach Dodge's first two seasons combined (3).

The team(s) you should be selling are...

Louisiana-Lafayette
If the Ragin Cajuns were going to find their way to the first bowl game in school history, last year was the year. A senior quarterback, running back, and wide receiver powered the Cajuns offense to the best mark in the conference. They even challenged BCS-member schools Illinois and Kansas State on the road, before losing by 3 and 8 respectively. The Cajuns did finish second in the conference and were bowl eligible for the third time in four seasons. However, Florida Atlantic was the second Sun Belt team selected for a bowl game, and the Cajuns had to spend the holidays at home. Now those three skill players are gone, and despite the fact that seven other starters return, including all five along the offensive line, it appears as if the offense will decline. The defense, far from a strength last season (sixth in the league), does return 9 starters, so they should see some improvement on that end. The Cajuns have been very competitive under head coach Ricky Bustle, and they may even flirt with bowl eligibility this season, but expecting them to match their five league wins from last season is foolhardy.

The team(s) you should be holding are...

Arkansas State and Western Kentucky
Last season started out looking as if it could be a great one for the Arkansas State Red Wolves. They upset Texas A&M (at College Station) in the opener and then waylayed IAA Texas Southern 83-10 in their second game. Unfortunately, the rest of the way, they managed only a 4-6 record, lost four of five road games (with the lone win coming against punching bag North Texas), and despite finishing bowl eligibile for the fourth time in head coach Steve Roberts' seven seasons, were left out of the postseason. The Red Wolves return a plethora of offensive talent from a unit that surprisingly under-achieved last season. The Red Wolves were fourth in the league in offense, but were pretty much on equal footing with North Texas in terms of moving the ball (averaged about 6 yards more per league game). Returning for 2009 are a senior quarterback (Corey Leonard), on track to become the school's all-time leading passer, a senior running back (Reggie Arnold), on track to become the school's all-time leading rusher, and last year's top two receivers (Brandon Thompkins and Jahbari McLennan). The Red Wolves do lose three starting offensive linemen, so improvement is not a given, but the glut of skill position players means its likely. On defense, the Red Wolves bring back 8 starters from a unit that was the second best in the league behind Troy. Led by defensive end Alex Carrington, who paced the team and the Sun Belt with 10.5 sacks last season, the Red Wolves should be strong on defense. The Red Wolves also get to host league favorite Troy, so why are they not a team to invest heavily in? Road games. The last five seasons, Arkansas State has posted a Sun Belt road record of 5-13, including 1-3 last season and 0-3 in 2007. If they can win on the road, this could be a special year for Arkansas State. 2009 marks Western Kentucky's maiden voyage in the Sun Belt and in IA football. They were a transitional member in 2007 and 2008, and the results thus far have not been so good. The Hilltoppers were 7-5 in 2007, but just 1-5 against IA foes. They were 2-10 last season, and did not beat a single IA school. The Hilltoppers played five Sun Belt opponents in 2008 and in those five games they averaged 300 yards per game and allowed an average of 393 yards per game. The offensive numbers would rank dead last in the Sun Belt, about 47 yards below Middle Tennessee State. The defensive numbers would have ranked a respectable sixth in the league, just behind Florida Atlantic. The offense, last season's weak link, returns the most starters (8), but must break in a new quarterback, while the defense returns only four starters. Western Kentucky has a history of succes at the IAA level, including winning the national title in 2002 and posting a winning record for 12 consecutive seasons prior to 2008. Whether they can continue that success in the Sun Belt conference remains to be seen.

MAC Review: 2005-2008

In addition to the SDPI posts, another offseason interest of mine has been to look at how each IA conference has shaken out since 2005. I chose 2005 as the starting point because that was the year the ACC expanded to 12 teams, the Big East added 3 new members and booted Temple, Conference USA added a championship game, the Mountain West added TCU, the WAC looted the Sun Belt after several of its members joined Conference USA, and the Sun Belt added 2 independents from Florida (FAU and FIU). Since 2005, there has only been one change in any IA conference. That was the expansion of the MAC by a single team with the addition of Temple. Only two more conferences left to analyze, and only about 10 more weeks until kickoff :) This week we move to the nation's heartland, and take a look at the Big 10's little brother, the Mid-American Conference. First here are the cummlative MAC standings since 2005.Not surprisingly, the team with two league championships in the past four seasons is number one overall. Butch Jones, who took over at Central Michigan, following Brian Kelly's departure to Cincinnati prior to the Chippewas bowl game in 2006, has actually exceeded Kelly's winning percentage in conference play. Kelly went 12-4 in the MAC in 2005 and 2006 (15-9 if we include his first year in 2004). Butch has guided the Chippewas to a 12-3 conference record the past two seasons. That brings me to my next point. You'll notice six teams have played 32 conference games and six have played 31 (Temple has only played 8 as they joined before the 2007 season). The MAC thought it would be a great idea to have some teams play seven conference games in 2007 and others play eight because the addition of Temple gave the league 13 teams. The league counted only games against division opponents when determining the representatives in the 2007 MAC Championship Game. As Murphy could have predicted, the MAC East champion in 2007 (Miami) was actually a half game behind Bowling Green because they played only 7 league games (5-2) while the Falcons played 8 (6-2). Each team went 4-2 within the division (as did Buffalo). Both schools beat the Bulls and Miami beat Bowling Green so they were crowned division champs. The league corrected itself in 2008, having each school play 8 total conference games and making life easier on statisticians everywhere. Another interesting fact is that Bowling Green, despite owning the fourth best record overall and top record in the MAC East over the past four seasons, did not 'win' the division a single time. The Falcons, in a move they will probably wind up regretting, fired their coach, Gregg Brandon, after last season. It just seems like a stupid thing to do, firing a coach who consistently had the team in contention to win the division (tied for 1st in 2005, tied for 1st in 2006, tied for 2nd in 2008). No, he wasn't as good as his predecessor (you may know him) but he only had one losing season in six years and the Falcons participated in three bowl games under his watch.

Now here is each team's home record in conference play since 2005.Western Michigan and Temple!? are tied for the best home league mark since 2005. I'll give the nod to the Broncos since they have played twice as many games. The biggest discrepancy between home and road record belongs to the Temple Owls and Akron Zips. Temple is a robust 6-2 at home against MAC foes since joining the league in 2007, but only 2-6 on the road for a difference of four games. Akron is a solid 9-7 at home since 2005, but only 5-11 on the road. The most interesting home/road split probably belongs to Ball State. The Cardinals are a ho-hum 9-7 at home, but a league-best 13-2 on the road since 2005 (difference of 4.5 games).

Now here is how homefield advantage shakes out in the MAC (in conference play only) with respect to the nation at large (with rank out of the 11 IA conferences in parentheses).With the exception of 2007, the MAC has found itself in the bottom half of the nation in terms of the value of homefield advantage. Twice the conference's home teams have finished with losing records (2005 and 2008). Overall, homefield has meant next to nothing in the aggregate in terms of wins and losses within the league.

Next up is how each MAC team stacks up offensively for each season. This is the ranking of yards per game in conference play.If there is one thing that is constant in the MAC, its change. Outside of Central Michigan, which has finished either first or second in offense each of the past four seasons, no other team has been consistent. Temple has finished dead last in both of their seasons in the league, but every other full-time member has seen their fortune shift dramatically at least once. Toledo and Northern Illinois are the prime examples of this phenomenon. Toledo owned the league's best offense in 2005, drooped to eighth in 2006, rebounded to second in 2007, and fell back to second-to-last in 2008. Northern Illinois was third in 2005, tops in the league in 2006, fell to ninth in 2007, and then dropped one spot further to tenth in 2008. If you look at Ball State's numbers, its pretty easy to tell when Nate Davis became the starting quarterback.

And finally, here are the defensive rankings for each team. This is yards allowed per game in conference play. Change has been the story on defense as well. Here are just a few examples. Akron had the best defense in the league during their title-winning 2005 season. They dropped to the middle of the pack in 2006, and fell even further in 2007. Western Michigan and Ohio featured the two worst defenses in the league in 2005. They had the two best in 2006. Ball State and Buffalo had the two worst defenses in 2006. In 2007, they were both in the top five. Miami had the best defense in 2007. They had the third worst in 2008. Northern Illinois had the second worst defense in 2007. They had the league's best in 2008. What kind of shenanigans are in store for 2009? Will Eastern Michigan become the standard against which all MAC defenses are measured? Will Northern Illinois go back in the crapper? Stay tuned.

MAC SDPI

One of my favorite set of posts from the past two offseasons has been the SDPI recap/early preview. Don't know what SDPI is? It stands for Standard Deviation Power Index and is a tool Eddie Epstein used in his book Dominance to rate pro football's best teams. The basic idea is to look at how far above or below average (by standard deviations) a specific team is relative to their conference brethren. Since each team plays the same number of conference games, it can give us a good idea about who the best team was within the conference. However, it cannot tell us which conference is better. But the purpose of these posts is not to determine which conference is superior, but rather project ahead which teams in a conference will be contenders or also rans in the upcoming season. In the first post on SDPI two years ago, I calculated SDPI based on points scored and allowed within conference play. Last season I used points scored and allowed as well as yards gained and allowed. This season, I'm sticking with yards only. The yardage version of SDPI has a better correlation with future performance than points, and including both last season made the post seem (at least to me) quite muddled. Of course, this is by no means, the end all be all rating system, but it can give us an idea of which teams will improve and decline in 2009. Only two more conferences left. Our penultimate review will be the Mid-American Conference.

If you want the meat of the article, skip this next paragraph as it just gives an example of how SDPI is calculated. The mean yardage for and against for all MAC teams in conference play (championship game excluded) was 30777.46 yards. The standard deviation for yards gained was 376.11. The standard deviation for yards allowed was 302.15. Kent State gained 3344 yards in conference play and allowed 3019. Their offensive SDPI was 0.71 = ([3344-3077.46]/376.11). Their defensive SDPI was 0.19 = ([3077.46-23019]/302.15). Their total SDPI was 0.90 which ranked 4th in the conference.

To refresh your memory, here are the 2008 MAC Standings.

Now here are the 2008 SDPI Standings sorted by total SDPI, with conference rank in offense, defense, and total SDPI in parentheses.
The big head-scratcher here involves the eventual league champion Buffalo Bulls. On a down-to-down basis, the Bulls were about the fourth best team in the MAC East. However, they created a ton of turnovers (MAC best turnover margin of +10 in conference play), completed a Hail Mary to beat Temple, and outlasted Bowling Green in overtime to win the division. In the MAC Championship Game, they capitalized on a spate of Ball State fumbleitis (ran two fumbles back for touchdowns) and won their first conference title as a IA school. Speaking of Ball State, they were clearly the class of the conference, riding the top offense and third best defense to an undefeated regular season, including a 22-point beating of the Big 10's Indiana.

Best Offense: Ball State 1.59
Prior to their bowl game meltodown against Tulsa, Ball State failed to gain at least 400 yards in any game just once, when Toledo held them to 355. Heck, they gouged Buffalo for 503 in their MAC Championship Game loss, but could not overcome four lost fumbles and an interception.

Worst Offense: Temple -1.58
The Temple offense was bad, but without quarterback Adam DiMichele it was awful. In the five conference games DiMichele played in, the Owls averaged 338 yards of offense (would have ranked 11th in the conference), but in the three he missed, they averaged 264 yards.

Best Defense: Northern Illinois 1.76
Ball State put a hurting on the Huskies (529 yards of offense) and Central Michigan moved the ball reasonably well (430 yards), but the Huskies held five of their six remaining conference opponents to under 300 yards.

Worst Defense: Eastern Michigan -1.48
This is sad since Eastern Michigan had an offense capable of getting them to their first bowl game since 1987 (fourth best in the league). No surprise that when they matched up with Central Michigan (second best offense and second worst defense in the conference) the final score was 56-52. The victor may have been a little surprising though.

Hardest Schedule (based on cumulative SDPI of opponents): Miami 2.70
The Redhawks faced the four best statistical teams in the MAC (Ball State, Bowling Green, Northern Illinois, and Kent State) along with the eventual league champion (Buffalo).

Easiest Schedule (based on cumulative SDPI of opponents): Bowling Green -2.95
The Falcons avoided the league's best team (Ball State) and had the good fortune of facing three of the bottom four teams (Eastern Michigan, Toledo, and Miami).

Entire Schedule Strength (hardest to easiest)
Miami 2.70
Toledo 2.21
Eastern Michigan 2.06
Kent State 1.11
Akron 0.81
Central Michigan 0.60
Northern Illinois 0.48
Western Michigan -0.22
Buffalo -1.11
Ohio -1.52
Temple -1.67
Ball State -2.50
Bowling Green -2.95

Looking ahead to next season, the prohibitive favorite should be...

East: Look to the bottom of last year's standings
Ohio won the MAC East in 2006 one season after finishing with a 3-5 conference record. Miami won the division in 2007 after a 2-6 campaign in 2006. Buffalo, last year's East champ, did have a winning record in the league in 2007, but prior to that, they had not won more than two conference games since joining the MAC in 1999. Keep an eye out for some combination of Akron, Ohio, Kent State, or Miami. I'd be inclined to give the nod to Ohio.

West: Central Michigan
After two straight MAC West titles (and two wins in the MAC Championship Game), the Chippewas ceded control of the division to Ball State last year. Those Cardinals lost their coach, quarterback, and four starters along the offensive line. Without those key pieces, its hard to envision a repeat. On the other hand, Central Michigan returns a three-year starter at quarterback, senior Dan LeFevour, from the league's second most prolific offense (Ball State was first). LeFevour has already thrown for the most yards in school history, and with a monstrous season, he could pass Timmy Chang for most yards of total offense in NCAA history (a little over 5200 behind). LeFevour is a dynamic dual-threat quarterback (a Tim Tebow light), having thrown for over 9000 yards and 74 touchdowns in his career to go along with over 2200 yards and 32 touchdowns on the ground. LeFevour has his top three receivers from last season (Antonio Brown, Bryan Anderson, and Kito Poblah) back to throw to. Neither topped 1000 yards, but each had at least 532. The only concern any Chippewa fan should have about the offense is that fact that three starters depart along the offensive line. Even if the line takes some time to develop, the plethora of talented skill position players should keep the Chippewa offense near the top of the league. The other side of the ball is where Central Michigan must improve if they have designs on winning the division. The Chippewas had the second worst defense in the league last year, and they ranked 106th nationally in pass efficiency defense. Of course, that kind of defense does not necessarily preclude a conference title as they finished 106th in the same category in 2007. The major difference was that in 2007, they grabbed 18 interceptions and last season they only managed 8. As mentioned ad nauseum on this blog, extreme performances are unlikely to be repeated, so there's a great chance Central Michigan manages more than 8 interceptions in 2009. The defense should grab more interceptions and should also be a little better as 10 starters (including the top-13 tacklers) return. If the defense can just become mediocre, Central Michigan should roll to the MAC title.

The team(s) you should be buying are...

Eastern Michigan and Ohio
Last season, perennial MAC East doormat Buffalo rose up and won the whole conference. Can the MAC West doormat (Eastern Michigan) do the same this season? Probably not, but there is reason to believe Eastern Michigan could be much improved and perhaps challenge for a bowl game in 2009. For starters, the offense, which was the fourth best in the conference returns nine starters, including four starters along the offensive line, last season's leading receiver (Jacory Stone), last season's leading rusher (Terrence Blevins), and quarterback Andy Schmitt. Schmitt had a pair of historic games to close 2008, throwing a combined 156 passes against Temple and Central Michigan for 1000 yards and 8 touchdowns. Eastern Michigan scored 108 combined points in those games and only won one! I wouldn't expect Schmitt to post such amazing numbers over the course of 2009, but the offense should once again be one of the best in the conference. Improvement on defense will determine how successful Eastern Michigan is. Last season, they were dead last in the league in yards allowed within the conference. The good news is seven starters return in 2009. The bad news is the four leading tacklers from 2008 are gone. The other good news is new head coach Ron English has a solid track record of coordinating good defenses (we'll give him a mulligan on last season's unit at Louisville thanks to all the injuries suffered by the Cardinals) and like Central Michigan, they should come up with a few more interceptions on defense. The Eagles nabbed only 8 interceptions last year and should see that number improve. The Eagles are a long way from fielding a good defense (even by MAC standards), but with a little luck could find themselves in a bowl game for the first time since 1987. The Ohio Bobcats followed up consecutive non-losing seasons under Frank Solich with a 4-8 campaign in 2008. They finished 4-8 despite the fact that they outgained their opponents (both in conference play and overall). The primary culprit in their poor record was a 2-4 mark in one-score games (though they were 2-2 in league play) and a turnover margin of -13 which ranked 113th in the nation. Extreme turnover margins are rarely duplicated so the Bobcats should see their margin trend back toward zero in 2009. They should also experience better fortune in one-score games. But most importantly, the Bobcats have a number of key contributors returning in 2009 that should have them in contention for a MAC East title. Senior Boo Jackson is the best quarterback the Bobcats have had under Solich. Jackson threw 19 touchdown passes last season (a school record) against just 12 interceptions. In Solich's first three seasons as coach (2005-2007) the team had combined to throw 31 touchdowns and 40 interceptions. If we only consider conference games, Jackson was even better, throwing 16 touchdowns and 7 interceptions. He also showed solid athleticism, rushing for 333 yards and two scores on the ground. Joining Jackson in the backfield are last season's two leading rushers Chris Garrett and Donte Harden. The pair combined for nearly 1000 yards on the ground last season (983) and with three starters back along the offensive line, should continue their solid production. Last season's two leading receivers are also back (Taylor Price and LaVon Brazill), meaning the offense should break into the top half of the league (they were eighth last season). The defense also brings back seven starters from a unit that ranked fourth in the league in yards allowed, including linebacker and leading tackler Noah Keller, a 2nd Team All-MAC selection in 2008. The defense should remain in the top half of the league, and coupled with improvements on offense, and a better turnover margin, the Bobcats should return to a bowl game for the second time under Solich.

The team(s) you should be selling are...

Buffalo
Let me preface this by saying that the job Turner Gil has done at Buffalo in three short seasons is phenomenal. However, a ton of good fortune went into last season's MAC title campaign. For starters, the Bulls recovered an amazing 2/3rds of their opponents fumbles (26 of 39), aiding them in their turnover margin of +20 (3rd best in the nation). Forcing fumbles is a skill, and the Bulls clearly swarmed to the ball in 2008. However, recovering fumbles is not a skill. Case in point, the Bulls recovered only 8 of their opponents 23 fumbles in 2007. There's a great chance the Bulls won't force as many turnovers in 2009, which means their defense will have to improve in forcing 3 and outs in order to successfully defend their conference title. The Bulls were ninth of 13 teams in yards allowed last season, hardly numbers befitting a league champion. Fortunately for the defense, the top-eight tacklers are back from last season, so some improvement is likely imminent. On the other side of the ball, the offense did not fare much better, finishing seventh in the league despite the presence of Drew Willy, the school's all-time leading passer, a four-year starter, and a free agent signee of the Baltimore Ravens. The Bulls still have plenty of talent on offense, including the leading rusher in school history (James Starks) and the second-leading receiver in school history who also happens to be a likely NFL draft choice (Naaman Roosevelt). However, with 3/5ths of the offensive line gone and a new starter at quarterback, the offense will be hard pressed to improve. Gil has done great things here, and the future is much brighter than it was when he was first hired. However, 2009 looks to be a season when the Bulls have to pay the piper for all the good fortune they experienced last year.

The team(s) you should be holding are...

Bowling Green and Western Michigan
Last season Bowling Green was statistically the best team in the MAC East, and second best team in the league overall. However, they were snakebitten in close games, going 1-4 in games decided by one score. Those four close losses each occurred in conference play, including one to Buffalo, which caused them to finish tied for second in the division. After the disappoinment of not winning the division, the administration got rid of head coach Gregg Brandon, who was 44-30 in six seasons at Bowling Green with only a single losing season. They then hired Tennesee offensive coordinator Dave Clawson to replace him. Keep in mind, Tennessee had one of the worst offenses in college football last season (116th in total offense and 111th in scoring offense). To be fair, Clawson has had success as a head coach before at Fordham and Richmond. He lead Fordham to one playoff appearance and three winning records in five seasons and he got Richmond into the playoffs twice in four seasons. Still, schools like Bowling Green should work hard to keep coaches like Gregg Brandon, not let them go. That being said, Bowling Green has some conflicting indicators going forward, I already mentoned their poor record in close games which saddled one of the league's better teams with a .500 record. However, the strength of last year's team was the defense, which ranked second in the conference. That unit returns only three starters in 2009 and loses the best pass rusher on the team, defensive end Diyral Briggs, who lead the team with 9.5 sacks and 13.5 tackles for loss last season. On offense, the team does bring back a senior quarterback (Tyler Sheehan), who has thrown 43 touchdowns against just 20 interceptions the past two seasons. However, the leading rusher (Anthony Turner) and leading receiver (Corey Partridge) from last year's team are gone. It's hard to get a good read on this team going into 2009. The coaching change and the loss of so many starters from the defense may make this a rebuilding year despite the likely improvement in luck. While Bowling Green could not buy a win in a close game, Western Michigan seemed unable to lose one. The Broncos won three MAC games by six points or less and also knocked off Illinois from the Big 10 by six. Those close wins pushed Western Michigan to a 9-4 record despite the fat that they did not do any one thing particularly well. The Broncos were fifth in the MAC in offense and seventh in defense. The offense returns a senior quarterback (Tim Hiller) who threw 36 touchdowns last season and has a shot at becoming the school's all-time leading passer with another good year. Four starters also return along the offensive line, but Hiller will be without the services of his two leading receivers from last season (Jamarko Simmons and Schneider Julien) who combined for 163 catches and nearly 2000 yards. The defense loses eight starters including seven of the top-ten tacklers, and will be breaking in an entirely new secondary. Bill Cubit is an outstanding head coach, Tim Hiller is one of the best quarterbacks in the league, and the Broncos host MAC West favorite Central Michigan, however, I'd be hesistant to predict them to win the division with all the losses on defense and the likely reversal in good fortune. In addition, a bowl game is not a certain proposition with games at Michigan, Indiana, and Michigan State adorning the non-conference ledger.

WAC Review: 2005-2008

In addition to the SDPI posts, another offseason interest of mine has been to look at how each IA conference has shaken out since 2005. I chose 2005 as the starting point because that was the year the ACC expanded to 12 teams, the Big East added 3 new members and booted Temple, Conference USA added a championship game, the Mountain West added TCU, the WAC looted the Sun Belt after several of its members joined Conference USA, and the Sun Belt added 2 independents from Florida (FAU and FIU). Since 2005, there has only been one change in any IA conference. That was the expansion of the MAC by a single team with the addition of Temple. This week, we'll go west and meet the Gonzaga of college football, Boise State. First here are the cummlative Western Athletic Conference standings since 2005.There's domination, and then there's what Boise State has done to the rest of the WAC over the past four seasons (heck since they've been in the league). The table below lists each team's cummulative scoring margin in conference play since 2005. That +789 number means Boise has outscored their WAC opponents by more than 24 and a half points per game over the past four season. You can see, both by the record and scoring margin, that the Fresno State program has taken a fall over the past four seasons. They have been usurped as second banana to Boise by both Hawaii and Nevada. Louisiana Tech has had an interesting roller coaster ride over the past four seasons. In 2005, they finished 6-2 in the league (7-4) overall, but did not receive a postseason invite. The following season, the wheels came off and Tech finished 1-7 in the league (tied for last with Utah State). Head coach Jack Bicknell was given a pink slip and the progeny of Vince Dooley (Derek) was hired to coach the team. Tech improved to 4-4 in WAC play in 2007. In their first conference game, they nearly derailed Hawaii's dream season before it got started, falling to the Warriors 45-44 in OT. Tech went 5-3 this past season and won their first bowl game since 1977.

Now here is each team's home record in conference play since 2005.Again, no surprise at the very top. Boise has not lost a home game to a WAC foe since joining the conference in 2001. In fact, Boise has not lost a conference home game since 1998, when they fell to fellow Big West member North Texas on October 10th. Elsewhere in the WAC, Hawaii comes in with the second best homefield advantage. This won't surprise many observers, as Hawaii has a reputation as a notoriously tough place to play. However, what may surprise folks, is that Hawaii has been nearly just as good away from the islands. Their 11-5 road record in the WAC is the second best mark over the past four seasons (behind only Boise's 14-2 record). One unique aspect of the WAC since 2005 is that no team has a better road record than home record. New Mexico State and Idaho both have the same putrid record in Las Cruces and Moscow as they do away from home (2-14 for the Aggies and 3-13 for the Vandals). The biggest discrepancy between home and road record belongs to the San Jose State Spartans. The Spartans are 9-7 at home and 6-10 on the road against league foes since 2005. Of course, this is all relative as no WAC team has performed significantly better at home as compared with the other conferences we've examined.

Now here is how homefield advantage shakes out in the WAC (in conference play only) with respect to the nation at large (with rank out of the 11 IA conferences in parentheses).After two seasons of slightly above average home performances, the WAC has slipped toward the bottom of IA in homefield advantage. Overall, the league ranks eighth since 2005. This is a sign that the better teams tend to win no matter where the game is played,

Next up is how each WAC team stacks up offensively for each season. This is the ranking of yards per game in conference play.Until 2008, the most consistent offense in the WAC belonged to the Hawaii Warriors. Think the departure of June Jones may have had something to do with their slide? On the mainland, the most consistently good offenses have been those at Boise and Reno. It's a little surprising that Boise has never lead the league in total offense. The most consistently bad offense has been that of Idaho. The Vandals have finished second to last in total offense each of the past four seasons. If you had taken the pulse of the New Mexico State program after the 2006 season, one would have thought it was quickening. Hal Mumme had just completed his second season in Las Cruces and the Aggies had finished behind only Hawaii and Boise in offense. Surely his air raid attack would wreck havoc on the rest of the conference. However, his charges dipped to the middle of the league in 2007, and then bottomed out in 2008, finishing ahead of only offensive luminaries Idaho and San Jose State. Not surprsingly, Mumme ball has been laid to rest. One can only hope Brendan Frasier can revive it.

And finally, here are the defensive rankings for each team. This is yards allowed per game in conference play.This is where Boise State has made their mark in the WAC. The national media likes to emphasize the skill position players and the high-octane offense Boise has run as the key to their success (not to mention their numerous gadget plays like those employed in the Fiesta Bowl win over Oklahoma), but the defense has been the dominant force in their foray through the WAC. They have boasted the league's best defense three years running, with a silver medal thrown in for good measure in 2005. They are the only team to have been in the top half of the league's defensive rankings each season. What's happened to Fresno State? After owning the league's best defense in 2005 (the year they gave Southern Cal all they could handle), the Bulldogs have been either mediocre or awful defensively. Dick Tomey, who popularized the 'Desert Swarm' defense during his time at Arizona, still knows a thing or two about that side of the ball. After a rough go of it in his first season (2005), his Spartans have been in the top four defensively each of the past three seasons. Also note the uptick in Hawaii's defensive ranking when Greg McMackin returned to the coordinator duties in 2007 (he became the head coach in 2008).