Five Questions: American Athletic Conference

Our second batch of questions takes us to the American Athletic Conference. Enjoy.

1. How will the divisions play out?
For the first time in the short history of the American Athletic Conference, there will be divisional play. No more shared conference titles. There will be one true champion. With the American now sporting twelve teams, eight of the current crop of ten FBS conferences will feature a conference championship game on the first weekend in December (only the Big 12 and Sun Belt are not in on the fun).

2. How will Navy enjoy conference life?
With Navy leaving the leisurely life of independence behind, Notre Dame is now the only current FBS team to have never enjoyed conference membership. Remember, Army was a member of Conference USA from 1998 to 2004. Navy’s maiden voyage into conference life has them in the west division of the American. Yes, a team stationed in Annapolis is in the ‘west’. With seven teams (eight if you count Memphis) in the (mostly) eastern part of the United States, some team had to draw the short straw of playing in the west. My preference would have been for Cincinnati to join Memphis in the west, but no one ever asked. I will be rooting for the Midshipmen, not because I am a closeted fan of the Village People, but because I think it would be quite unique if Navy played a regular season game (their annual tilt with Army) after playing a postseason game (the inaugural American Athletic Conference Championship Game).

3. When is South Florida going to amount to anything?
Maybe my question is a little harsh. After all, South Florida did play in six consecutive bowl games between 2005 and 2010. However, try and remember back to mid-October of 2007. South Florida was ranked 2nd in the country and visiting Rutgers on a Thursday night. In the long ago pre-expansion days, the Bulls and Knights were conference opponents in the Big East. South Florida lost a close game to the Knights to start a three-game skid and fall out of the national and conference championship picture. Why do I bring up 2007? Well, that was the last time South Florida posted a winning conference record.

Yes, despite bowl trips the next three seasons, the Bulls never managed to win more than they lost in Big East play. That trend has continued through three coaches and two conferences. Yes, a team that was touted as a sleeping giant back in 2007 has failed to finish with a winning conference record for the duration of Barack Obama’s presidency. Is this the year? Can the Bulls finally shatter the .500 glass ceiling or is more heartbreak in store for the other directional Florida school?

4. What does Memphis do for an encore?
It would not be hyperbole to suggest that 2014 was perhaps the finest football season in school history for the Memphis Tigers. The feisty felines played relatively tight games with UCLA and Ole Miss, won a share of the American, brawled with BYU in the bowl game, won ten games, and finished ranked for the first time ever. Not bad for a team that averaged just over two wins per season between 2009 and 2013. Perhaps the best news for Memphis is that they were able to hang on to their head coach, Justin Fuente. Now the Tigers will look to post consecutive winning seasons for the first time since Tommy West road DeAngelo Williams to three straight bowls from 2003 to 2005. The Tigers return eleven starters including quarterback Paxton Lynch, a towering player who would not look out of place in the team picture for Josh Pastner’s squad. Do the Tigers have what it takes to win consecutive American Athletic Conference titles?

5. How fast will SMU play?
The June Jones era in Dallas ended not with a bang, but with a whimper. Jones resigned two games into last season and the Mustangs won only a single game under interim coach Tom Mason. If we take away Jones’ first season (2008) and his last (2014), in between the Mustangs enjoyed their greatest success since receiving the Death Penalty. To replace Jones, SMU hired Clemson offensive coordinator Chad Morris. Morris was the offensive coordinator at Clemson for four seasons and under his watch, the Tigers played with tempo. They averaged at least 75 plays per game each season, which represented a significant improvement in speed over the years prior to his arrival.

Can SMU expect a similar pace? To answer that question, it would be helpful to know how fast the Mustangs played under Jones. To put it succinctly, it varied.

That is a pretty big spread between the slowest and fastest seasons under Jones. Certainly, the 2008 team was poor offensively and thus likely endured a lot of three and outs, but the 2013 team was not an offensive dynamo and still managed to average nearly 79 plays per game. The Mustangs will play at a faster pace in 2015, but that will probably not result in significantly more plays if the offense does not improve enough to stay on the field.

Five Questions: Mountain West

19 days friends. That is all that separates us from the malaise of summer and real college football. Most of the major storylines in college football are covered (much better) elsewhere. Thus, I will focus on a few under the radar storylines for the five mid-major conferences. We'll begin in the Mountain West.

1. Can Tony Sanchez succeed at UNLV fresh out of high school?
Tony Sanchez is not literally fresh out of high school. By my estimation, he matriculated a little more than two decades ago. However, he is going from a high school coach to a head coach of an FBS program. To be fair, there are not many examples of coaches jumping from high school to the college ranks without a stop as a coordinator or position coach along the way. However, the few that do exist offer Faustian tales of caution. Still, it makes sense for UNLV to take a calculated risk on a local high school coach who enjoyed absurd success. Sanchez probably won’t turn the Titanic around in one season, but a competitive team could have the locals optimistic about something besides progressive jackpots.

Hey. I'm looking for Tom Walker. Have you seen him?

2. Can San Jose State capitalize on their SEC-esque recruiting rankings?
Ron Caragher’s seat is getting a little warm on the California coast. After debuting with a 6-6 mark, his Spartans fell to 3-9 in his second season, with losses in their final six games. Their statistical profile was interesting to say the least as their Yards Per Play numbers were befitting a team that should have won two or three more games in the Mountain West.

Alas, wins are the most important commodity in college football (and sports in general) so Caragher should probably refrain from touting those solid numbers at the next Spartan Club meeting. While wins are the most valuable commodity in college football, Caragher appears to be doing a great job of acquiring the second most valuable commodity – talent. His latest recruiting class ranked 58th in the nation and second in the Mountain West, hardly suitable for a team that is just 9-15 under his guidance. Will the reinforcement of talent (and some better luck) make the Spartans contenders this year? Furthermore, will Caragher be around to further coalesce and consolidate his talent if it does not pay immediate dividends?

3. Will Boise State fans forget Chris Petersen?
As far as debuts go, Bryan Harsin could not have asked for much more. While the Broncos were not able to take out another SEC heavyweight and despite an early season upset at Air Force, they played in a BCS New Year's Six Bowl for the first time since 2009. Their dramatic win against Arizona in the Fiesta Bowl gave them three such victories and raised the stakes for Harsin’s follow up. Under the new rules, one member from the Group of 5 (American, Conference USA, MAC, Mountain West, and Sun Belt) must be invited to play in a New Year's Six Bowl, so it may as well be Boise right? The Broncos were not quite on the level of vintage Petersen teams whether judging by the Simple Rating System (how many points better a team is than a hypothetical ‘average’ team on a neutral field) or Yards Per Play numbers, but they were good enough.

Can they improve and perhaps even join the conversation for getting in the actual playoff?

4. Can New Mexico make the leap from competitive ‘dust in your brakes’ to bowl team?
Bob Davie was (rightfully) given a great deal of leeway when he took over in Albuquerque. His predecessor won exactly two games in two and a half seasons before being fired for off the field reasons. Thus far, Davie has won a few more games, featured an exciting run-based offense, and not committed sexual harassment or had a teen arrested for DWI while driving his car (that we know of). Now would be a good time to start winning more. While the Lobos have not played in the postseason since the twilight of the George W. Bush administration, they were a consistent bowl team throughout the late 90’s and early 00’s. Another season of competitive play, but few breakthrough wins will not be enchanting for fans of the program.

5. Can Nevada survive without the services of Cody Fajardo?
While Fajardo did not quite have the college (and likely pro) career of his predecessor, he was a four-year starter who led the Wolfpack to three bowl appearances and accounted for over 13000 yards of total offense, and 101 touchdowns. Nevada continues to run the quarterback-friendly Pistol as installed by former coach and College Football Hall of Famer Chris Ault, but after eight years of more or less uninterrupted quality quarterback play, the Wolfpack could learn how the other half lives in 2015.

MACtion: When is a Point not a Point

While a pair of teams have dominated the MAC over the past decade (Northern Illinois and Central Michigan have combined for six MAC titles and nine MAC Championship Game appearances), fortunes for other teams in the conference seem to change on a regular basis. For example, in Frank Solich’s second season, Ohio improved from 3-5 in conference play to 7-1 and won the division. They dropped to 4-4 and 3-5 over the next two seasons before rebounding once again to 7-1. Miami of Ohio has enjoyed several zeniths and nadirs, finishing 2-6 in 2006, 5-2 (and division champ) in 2007, and back to 1-7 in 2008. They were 1-7 again in 2009 before jumping to 7-1 (and conference champion) in 2010. Buffalo jumped from 1-7 to 5-3 in a single season and Bowling Green fell from 6-2 to 1-7 before rebounding to 6-2 just two years later. Even entrenched powers like Northern Illinois and Central Michigan have seen losing seasons begat bowl trips and conference titles begat losing campaigns. I could go on, but you get the idea. In the MAC, very little is permanent. Why? Could it be because MAC school are fighting for the scraps of (mostly) Big 10 schools that their talent levels are very close together thereby making randomness a much bigger determinant of success in the MAC than other conferences? That is certainly a possibility. One idea I had was to look at the average point differential in conference games for each of the ten conferences playing in the FBS last season. The results are summarized below with commentary to follow.

The table should be pretty easy to read, but I’ll explain. In 2014, the average Big 12 conference game resulted in the winning team having about 19 more points than the losing team. This includes all the blowouts (i.e. all games involving Kansas), nailbiters, and overtime affairs. Obviously, the fewer blowouts a conference has, the lower the scoring margin will be. Lo and behold, look who is bringing up the rear. The average MAC conference game saw the winning team finish with about 13 more points than the losing one, the lowest in the FBS last season. These numbers were painstakingly compiled by me by hand, so I have not done any additional seasons. Therefore, the theory I am about to postulate could be totally invalidated with further research (probably an offseason project), but here goes. It is easier to improve or decline in the MAC because a point is more valuable. Since conference games are closer (pending further research) than the average conference, an additional point scored or fewer point allowed makes a bigger difference. For example, in 2014, a point in the MAC was worth about 40% more than a point in the Big 12. Of course, this could all be rendered moot by further research, but as it is, keep an eye on the downtrodden (Eastern Michigan, Kent State, and Miami) in 2015 to see if they can reverse course and make the MAC unpredictable.

Strangers in the Field

A few years ago I read Trading Bases, a book about a former Wall Street trader who decided to try his hand at investing in a different type of commodity. The book inspired me to work harder on my own regression formulas with college football and see if I could turn a profit in Sin City. Not being financially independent enough (or bold enough) to quit my job and move to Las Vegas and realizing how difficult it is to beat the casino by betting individual games, I decided to visit during the summer and use my preseason ratings to, in effect, bet every game a team plays via over/under win totals. I also decided to bet a few 'Games of the Year' where the line appeared off based on my preseason ratings. I just returned from my trip to Vegas, and in the interest of ensuring my bets win, I decided to post them here. Enjoy.

Over/Under Win Totals
The premise here is simple. These bets are on teams to either go 'over' or 'under' a baseline win total.

Miami over 6 wins -200 ($150 to win $75)
The Miami Hurricanes were the great enigma of the 2014 season. After an inauspicious 3-3 start, the Hurricanes seemed like a team coalescing over the second half of the season with three consecutive wins over bowl teams (Cincinnati, Virginia Tech, and North Carolina) by a combined 72 points. Heading into their mid-November showdown with Florida State, the Hurricanes were nearly even money to end the Seminoles 25-game winning streak. As was seemingly the case in every Florida State game in 2014, the 'Noles fell behind early before rallying to pull one out of the fire. Whether or not the Hurricanes were emotionally damaged by that blown opportunity, they struggled down the stretch, losing by double-digits to two ACC also-rans (Virginia and Pitt) before losing a tight Independence Bowl to South Carolina. The four-game skid gave Miami its first losing season under Al Golden, and had many questioning how far the program has come under his guidance. 2015 will likely serve as a referendum on his tenure. Either the Hurricanes will improve and set the stage for a few more years of white shirts and ties on the sidelines or regress and start looking to make a change. Despite their late-season struggles, the Hurricanes actually rated as the top team in the ACC based on their conference only Yards Per Play (YPP) numbers. In fact, if we plot Miami's YPP numbers for each year of Golden's tenure, we can see pretty clear improvement.

The Hurricane's defense has gone from a weakness to a strength, while the offense has maintained its standing near the top of the conference. If you didn't know Miami's record last season, and just looked at these numbers, it wouldn't take much to project them for at least seven wins in twelve games. Granted, wins and losses are pretty important in college football (and sports in general), but the Hurricanes appear destined to improve this season. The schedule is a bit tricky, as it includes non-conference clashes with Cincinnati and Nebraska as well as the toughest draw from the Atlantic Division (Clemson and Florida State), but this low number is too good to pass up even if you do have to pay a bit of a premium to get it.

South Carolina over 6.5 wins -125 ($50 to win $40)
Last year at this time, South Carolina was coming off three consecutive eleven win campaigns and was ranked in the preseason top-10. Despite the loss of some key pieces from perhaps the most successful multi-year run in school history, including Jadeveon Clowney, Connor Shaw, and Bruce Ellington, the optimism in Columbia was unbridled. And then Texas A&M came to town and eviscerated any hope that the Gamecocks would be a contender in the SEC East. The Gamecock defense elevated a player that would not finish the year as his team's starter into a premature Heisman candidate. And now, with memories of the year long struggle to tackle and hold leads fresh in the public's mind, I think the Gamecocks are undervalued. Keep in mind, although they finished 3-5 in SEC play, four of their losses were by a touchdown or less. In fact, despite their struggles, the Gamecocks were good enough to beat Georgia (at home) and Florida (on the road), not to mention mid-major bowl teams in East Carolina and South Alabama. I don't expect South Carolina to win the SEC East this season, but the Gamecocks have finished with at least seven regular season wins eight times in Spurrier's ten seasons as coach. There are some challenging non-conference games on the slate, including a pair of tilts with ACC foes Clemson and North Carolina, but I think the Gamecocks get to at least seven wins.

Syracuse over 4.5 wins -120 ($40 to win $33.35)
The Orange were a team that suffered through a second year stagnation. After a 7-6 maiden voyage that included a bowl upset over Minnesota, Syracuse saw their regular season win total cut in half as they struggled through a 3-9 season. The Orange were especially poor down the stretch as they lost their last five games while averaging just over nine points per game. In fact, if not for the presence of Wake Forest and their historically poor offense, Syracuse would have ranked last in the ACC in Yards Per Play by a significant margin. Some of their offensive struggles can be blamed on the loss of Terrel Hunt to injury in the fifth game. While Hunt only threw a single touchdown pass on the year, he did run for six scores and threw just four interceptions. If Hunt can stay healthy, Syracuse could double or triple last season's conference win total. The non-conference slate includes a pair of likely wins (Rhode Island and Central Michigan), a sure loss (LSU), and a tricky road game against another coach on the hot seat (South Florida). If the Orange are able to take care of the Bulls on the road, they stand a great chance at getting to another bowl game. While that may seem like faint praise, its important to remember that success is relative lest we forget the Greg Robinson era.

Texas over 6.5 wins +105 ($30 to win $31.50)
Charlie Strong begins his second season in the Lonestar state attempting to return the Longhorns to an elite level of football. Hard to believe, but since playing in the BCS National Championship Game following the 2009 season, Texas has finished the season in the final poll just once. Those are David McWilliams' numbers. There were some bright spots in Strong's first season, including a late three-game winning streak to become bowl eligible, and a near upset of UCLA. However, the Longhorns also lost five games (including the bowl) by at least three touchdowns. An optimist would point out that most of those losses came to elite teams (Arkansas, Baylor, BYU, TCU, and Kansas State), but that is still unbecoming of a team with the pedigree of Texas. Realistically, with Notre Dame and a tricky Cal on the non-conference schedule, I think Texas will probably end up with exactly six wins, but I figured I would roll the dice anyway. Hook 'em baby!

Texas A&M under 8 wins -120 ($40 to win $33.35)
Peruse a few college football coaching hot seat lists and either Kevin Sumlin's name will be close to the bottom, or not on them at all. However, if you take a closer look at his record, you can start to see some diminishing returns. Whether it be the actual record (11-2 in his first year to 9-4 in his second to 8-5 in his third) or the in-conference YPP numbers.

In order to address their critical deficiency on the defensive side of the ball, the Aggies hired John Chavis, an SEC lifer, to be their defensive coordinator. Chavis has coordinated some fine defenses during his time at Tennessee and LSU (see below), but asking for miracles like feeding the 105,000 at Kyle Field might be a bit much.

As a point of reference, the Aggies would have failed to go over this number last season (finished 7-5). They do have the good fortune of trading Missouri for Vanderbilt in one of their cross-division games, but they make up for it by adding Arizona State to the non-conference schedule. Give the Aggies a hand for challenging themselves outside the league as their first 12 non-conference games as SEC members included SMU (3 times), Rice (2 times), Sam Houston State (2 times and an FCS school), Lamar (FCS), Louisiana-Monroe, Louisiana Tech, South Carolina State (FCS), and UTEP. In the rugged SEC West, the Aggies look headed for a 6-6 or 7-5 finish.

West Virginia under 7.5 wins -115 ($40 to win $34.80)
Last year was a crucial one for the health of the West Virginia program and for the future employment opportunities of coach Dana Holgorsen. After guiding the Mountaineers to an historical Orange Bowl rout of Clemson in his first season and a 5-0 start and top-5 ranking in his second, the veneer of the program had cracked. The Mountaineers lost six of their final eight games in 2012 before cratering to 4-8 in 2013 with losses to both Kansas and Iowa State. Needing a rebound in 2014, the Mountaineers opened the season by hanging with Alabama in the Georgia Dome, then won six of their next seven, including a decisive home win over Baylor. Once again, the Mountaineers limped to the finish, losing four of their last five, albeit with close losses to TCU and Kansas State. With nine starters back from a defense that ranked second in the Big 12 in Yards Per Play allowed last season, I think West Virginia can get to a bowl in 2015. However, the odd year conference schedule will likely keep West Virginia from improving on last season's regular season win total. The Mountaineers must travel to Baylor, Kansas State, Oklahoma, and TCU this season. If the Mountaineers steal one of those games, it would qualify as a large upset. Throw in the depth of the Big 12, with Kansas and Iowa State as the only 'gimmes' on the schedule (and keep in mind West Virginia lost to both just two seasons ago) plus a non-conference game with Maryland (and Georgia Southern) and I can't see the Mountaineers doing better than 7-5.

Games of the Year
Typically betting lines are set on Sunday for games beginning the following week. However, sportsbooks set a few 'Game of the Year' lines for certain games that are months away from occurring. The home team in these games is listed in bold.

October 3rd
South Carolina +6.5 Missouri -110 ($25 to win $22.75)
These teams have played three times as SEC foes, with the Gamecocks winning two (a blowout and an overtime affair when Connor Shaw pulled a Willis Reed - although Shaw actually did something instead of just providing the always ephemeral motivation and inspiration) and losing a one-point decision when the OBC was asleep at the wheel in regards to two-point strategy. These teams did play a fourth time during the respective tenure of both coaches, but that came during the 2005 Independence Bowl, during which Missouri twice rallied from a 21-point deficit to upset the Gamecocks. While Missouri has won the SEC East the past two seasons, they only have a middling Against the Spread (ATS) performance as a home favorite, going 5-4 in that span. The real money to be made on Missouri has been when they are catching points. As an underdog of any kind (excluding postseason games), the Tigers are an incredible 7-1 ATS with seven outright victories. As I wrote earlier, I think the Gamecocks will improve this season and with them catching nearly a touchdown here, they are a good play.

October 31st
Oregon State +16 Utah -110 ($25 to win $22.75)
Is there a better team to back on Samhain than one that looks a little like a candy corn? Obviously, my analysis is a little deeper than that (but not much). Oregon State has a new head coach for the first time since 2002. Gary Andersen has already proven his coaching prowess at Utah State and Wisconsin, and while this year will probably be one of transition for the Beavers (in other words, no bowl game), they should be improved enough two months into the season to stay within two touchdowns of Utah. Since joining the Pac-12 in 2011, Utah is just 5-7 ATS as a home favorite against conference foes and 1-4 as a double-digit home favorite. I think that trend will continue here.

November 12th
Virginia Tech +6 Georgia Tech -110 ($25 to win $22.75)
Last season, Georgia Tech rode an outstanding offense and an opportunistic defense to a win over Georgia, an ACC Championship Game appearance, an Orange Bowl win, and a top-ten finish. However, despite their success, Georgia Tech continued their defensive struggles under Paul Johnson. I have been a huge fan of the former Georgia Southern and Navy head coach since the day he was hired. I love seeing the archaic triple option being run by a major conference program. And the option has not disappointed. However, after a solid showing during his first season, the defense has been a consistent liability for the Yellow Jackets under Johnson.

Even last season, the Jackets ranked second to last in the ACC in yards per play allowed. When they were not forcing turnovers, the Yellow Jackets struggled mightily in stopping opponents. The defense may improve this season, but they will be hard pressed to repeat their proclivity in the turnover department. For that reason, I think Georgia Tech is overrated heading into the 2015 season. And this spread in particular, seems way off. Since Johnson took over as head coach prior to the 2008 season, Virginia Tech and Georgia Tech have played seven times. Six of those games have been decided by seven points or less, and the one that was not was won by the Hokies. In addition, Virginia Tech has done a phenomenal job of holding the Georgia Tech option in check. In those seven games, Georgia Tech has averaged just under 21 points per game (compared to the 32.2 points per game the Yellow Jackets have averaged for the duration of the Johnson era). I like the Hokies to keep this one close even though the game is in Atlanta.

October 17th
Pittsburgh +11 Georgia Tech -110 ($25 to win $22.75)
I already summed up my reasons for fading Georgia Tech in the previous paragraph, but even with those qualifiers, this spread seems egregiously high. Georgia Tech did beat Pitt by four touchdowns last season, but keep in mind the Panthers lost five fumbles in the first quarter! Even though the game is in Atlanta, I'll take the Panthers to stay within double-digits.

November 21st
Miami +3 Georgia Tech -110 ($25 to win $22.75)
This appears to be another Georgia Tech spread that is artificially high. In last season's game, Miami only scored 17 points, but they moved the ball efficiently, averaging eight yards per play. In three previous trips to south Florida under Paul Johnson, the Yellow Jackets are 0-3, with each loss coming by at least 15 points. With the Hurricanes catching points here, this is too good to pass up.

Miscellaneous Bets
This is a college football blog, but there were a few other events I wanted to bet on.

Pittsburgh Pirates 10-1 to win World Series ($15 to win $150)
Hard to believe I bet on a team with the tatted AJ Burnett playing a prominent role to win the World Series. Maybe I had one too many midori sours. While the risk here is minimal, this could wind up being something I regret more than when I signed up for Ashley Madison. Yes, the Pirates will likely have to win a do or die Wildcard Game to even get in the 'real' playoffs, but they have the 3rd best record in baseball, strong pitching and defense combo (fourth in the NL in runs allowed behind Burnett, Gerrit Cole, and Francisco Liriano), and one of the best players in baseball manning center field. I would't hold my breath on Pittsburgh winning their first title since 1979, but at 10-1, I thought the odds were solid.

Toronto Blue Jays 30-1 to win World Series ($10 to win $300)
With Jamie Moyer retired, I decided to bet on the team that employs my other favorite soft-tossing lefty. I made this bet because I felt like the Blue Jays were due for a market correction of sorts as their run differential is one of the best in baseball and belies their mediocre record. I made this bet in the morning on the 30th, and later that afternoon they acquired one of the best arms available in David Price. I can't take credit for having inside information on that one. At least, that's my story. The addition of Price bolsters the Blue Jays starting rotation that was one of the weaker links on the team. They are probably too far behind to catch the Yankees for the division (six games, but more importantly seven losses behind as of this writing), but the Wildcard and a potential one game playoff are certainly on the table. The Blue Jays have a long way to go, but at 30-1, I couldn't pass this up. Oh, and one more thing. With the addition of Price, the Blue Jays now have both 2012 Cy Young Award winners in the rotation.

Reckless Parlay
I couldn't leave Las Vegas without buying at least one lottery ticket. This is your standard seven team parlay. All games must be correct for the parlay to pay out and each game occurs over Labor Day Weekend.
$10 to win $900

Game 1: September 3rd
South Carolina -3 North Carolina (@Charlotte)
I think South Carolina will be better than they were last year. Plus, the Gamecocks have performed quite well against ACC teams over the last half-decade.

Game 2: September 3rd
Michigan +5.5 Utah
Am I putting too much stock in the Jim Harbaugh Effect? Probably.

Game 3: September 3rd
Western Kentucky +2.5 Vanderbilt
Vanderbilt was bad last year. They will probably be better this season. However, Western Kentucky could win Conference USA. Regardless, I think this will be one of the more entertaining game on the season's first Thursday.

Game 4: September 5th
Northwestern +12 Stanford
NERDS! Stanford travels to the Central Time Zone and gives double-digits.

Game 5: September 5th
Arizona State +3 Texas A&M (@ Houston)
Can the Aggies fix the defense in their first game under John Chavis? I certainly hope not.

Game 6: September 5th
BYU +5.5 Nebraska
These two teams have a long and storied rivalry. Just kidding. They have never played each other except in NCAA Football.

Game 7: Georgia Southern +19 West Virginia
The Eagles nearly upset a pair of ACC teams last year. If you got tackling problems I feel bad for ya son, the Eagles got 99 problems, but a p*tch ain't one.

10-Year Anniversary: Dominance Points in the SEC

The final stop in our review of Dominance Points takes us to the mighty SEC. Want to know how good they are? Just ask em’. The SEC schools are listed below by Dominance Points. The 12 teams that made up the SEC when the league expanded in 1992 are listed first and the Big 12 teams that joined and stretched the concept of ‘southeast’ to its breaking point are listed next.

I don’t think many college football fans are surprised to see Alabama as the most dominant team in the SEC. What may surprise college football fans is that Alabama ‘only’ won three SEC titles in the past decade. In the same way that Ronald Reagan ‘only’ won 59% of the popular vote in 1984, this is both impressive and yet not quite as remarkable as you remembered. The leaderboard aligns closely with the number of conference titles. After Alabama’s trifecta, Auburn, Florida, and LSU all have a pair of SEC titles with Georgia adding a single championship. Alabama also has the most SEC Championship Game appearances with four. In 2010, South Carolina enjoyed a historic season by not only playing in their first SEC Championship Game, but also breaking the Florida/Georgia/Tennessee hegemonic hold on the SEC East. In the first 18 seasons of divisional play, some combination of the Gators, Bulldogs, or Volunteers captured every SEC East crown. And speaking of divisional crowns, in just three seasons of play in the SEC, Missouri has already won twice as many SEC East titles as Kentucky, South Carolina, and Vanderbilt combined. In the SEC Championship Game itself, the west has reeled off six consecutive victories (with five coming by at least 17 points). Before we close this chapter of Statistically Speaking, I will leave you with what I feel is an extraordinary piece of statistical minutia regarding the SEC. Since 2005, every SEC team (including newbies Missouri and Texas A&M) has had at least one season with at least four conference wins and one season with at least five conference losses (i.e. a .500 conference record and a losing conference record). Kentucky is the only team to not have a winning SEC record in that span (topping out at 4-4 in 2006). Do with that what you will. Until next time.

10-Year Anniversary: Dominance Points in the Big 12 and Pac-12

In this look back on the last decade, we will examine the Big 12 and the Pac-12. What do both of these leagues have in common? Despite their nomenclature, it is certainly not the number of teams, but both conferences did offer a seat at the big boy table to a former Mountain West power, TCU and Utah respectively.

The Big 12 teams are listed below by Dominance Points. The 12 teams that made up the Big 12 from its inception through the 2010 season are listed first. The two teams that were thrown life preservers and granted access (or continued access) to big time football are listed separately.

The Big 12 was the only major conference to decline in membership following realignment (that is of course discounting the Big East and WAC, which lost all their members). While it could be argued the Big 12 is a better league since realignment, there is no question the league has become more egalitarian since the divisional format was scrapped following the 2010 season. During the six season span from 2005-2010, either Oklahoma or Texas won the conference each season (if we go back to the turn of the century, either the Sooners or Longhorns won the league in nine of eleven seasons). Perhaps not surprisingly, Oklahoma and Texas rank first in Dominance Points by a significant margin. However, since 2011 a new posse of barbarians has stormed the gate. In 2011, Oklahoma State won their first conference title since 1976, Kansas State shared the 2012 championship with Oklahoma, and former whipping boy Baylor won back to back titles in 2013 and 2014 with newbie TCU grabbing a share of the latter. Speaking of TCU, how has the former mid-major fared when going toe-to-toe with the big boys on a regular basis? The Horny Toads are a middling 14-13 in Big 12 play, but are coming off an 8-1 campaign and have the Heisman frontrunner under center heading into 2015. At the bottom of the standings, Colorado technically comes in last, but they have not played a Big 12 game since November 26, 2010. Kansas is your real cellar dweller. After going 11-5 in Big 12 games during the 2007-2008 seasons, the Jayhawks have gone just 4-48 in Big 12 play over the past six seasons and are on their fifth head coach with no respite in sight.

The Pac-12 teams are listed below by Dominance Points. The 10 teams that occupied the conference when it was known as the Pac-10 are listed first. Newbies Colorado and Utah are listed separately.

I figured Oregon and Southern Cal would be engaged in a much tighter race at the top. The reason Oregon is in front by a relatively comfortable margin has everything to do with expansion. Southern Cal and Oregon both won four Pac-10/12 titles. However, Southern Cal’s all came when the league had ten members, while two of Oregon’s came in the current 12-team incarnation. That means the Ducks get four additional points because a 12-team league is ostensibly harder to win than a 10-team league. In addition, there is a bigger penalty for not winning the conference once divisional play begins. If a team finished in second place in the old Pac-10, they could accrue up to nine points. However, in divisional play, the most a team could accrue without winning the conference is six points. These small tweaks to the conference, coupled with Oregon’s fantastic play over the past six seasons ensure the Ducks are prestigiously ranked as the most dominant Pac-10/12 team of the last decade by one random blogger with no press credentials and a Geocities quality website. Stanford’s high ranking may be somewhat surprising as the Cardinal were atrocious prior to Harbaugh’s arrival. However, since 2009, they have finished no lower than second in the conference or division and have captured a pair of Pac-12 titles. This may come as a surprise to you, but Cal and Arizona State have each won a share of a Pac-10 title in the last decade. Cal shared the 2006 crown with the Trojans and Arizona State, in their first season under Dennis Erickson, shared the title with the Trojans the next season. Of the original ten teams, the duo from the Evergreen State occupy the bottom of the standings. Washington has finished in the cellar of the conference or division thrice (but none since 2008), while their Apple Cup opponents have finished in that spot six times since 2005!

10-Year Anniversary: Dominance Points in the ACC and Big 10

We have finished our survey of Dominance Points for the extinct and mid-major conferences. We now turn our attention to a pair of conferences that condescending SEC elitists might classify as mid-majors, the ACC and Big 10. And yet, which two conferences have produced the past two national champions (in de face!)?

The ACC teams are listed below by Dominance Points. The 12 teams that formed the core of the conference are listed first, even Maryland, The Betrayer. The three Big East schools they added (for whatever reason) are listed separately.

With three consecutive conference crowns, Florida State has been the most dominant ACC team since 2005. While the Seminoles are not anywhere close to their 90’s dominance of the conference, they have gone 23-1 against league foes since 2012. Both divisions have been dominated by a pair of teams. In the Atlantic, Clemson and Florida State have combined for seven of the ten division titles since 2005 (Boston College and Wake Forest account for the other three). Meanwhile, in the Coastal, Georgia Tech and Virginia Tech have won nine of ten divisional crowns. Those four teams have combined to win nine of the first ten ACC Championship Games, with the other victor coming via Wake Forest in true Cinderella fashion in 2006. Despite a resurgence over the past two seasons, that included a division title in 2013, Duke was so poor in the early part of the decade they still rank last in Dominance Points.

The Big 10 teams are sorted below by Dominance Points. The 11 teams that formed the core of the conference are listed first. Newcomers, Nebraska, Maryland, and Rutgers are listed separately.

The top of the Big 10 heap is not a dramatic revelation. Prior to the conference expanding and splitting into divisions in 2011, Ohio State won at least a share of the first six Big 10 titles in the period we are examining. Since the league expanded, Wisconsin has the most Big 10 Championship Game appearances with three (although they won in 2012 thanks to sanctions in Columbus and State College) while Ohio State and Michigan State are tied with two. Nebraska has the other appearance. For those easily distracted by the new East/West division set up, during the first three years of divisional play (the Leaders and Legends fiasco), Ohio State and Wisconsin were actually in the same division. Whether that was the Leaders or Legends division is a question that should never be asked. Maryland and Rutgers acquitted themselves reasonably well during their respective preliminary forays into Midwestern football. For Rutgers, after slumming with gridiron peasants like Connecticut, South Florida, and Temple for the past quarter century or so, the guaranteed yearly battles with Ohio State, Michigan, Michigan State, and Penn State likely have fans partying like its 1869.

10-Year Anniversary: Dominance Points in the American

After sorting through a pair of extinct and four existing mid-major leagues, we will now examine the most nascent conference in college football, The American Athletic Conference.

The American Athletic Conference teams are sorted below by Dominance Points. Since the league is entering its third season and has been in constant flux since the very beginning, I have listed each team together.

It’s hard to proclaim any bold truths after just a pair of seasons of play, but UCF is the early leader in the clubhouse. After a historic 2013 season when they upset presumed overlord Louisville and earned the league’s first and only BCS bowl berth, the Knights finished in a three-way tie atop the standings in 2014 with Cincinnati and Memphis. For Memphis, this represented a tremendous reversal of fortune, as the Tigers shared the cellar with Temple just a season before. Much like the Atlanta Braves a quarter century ago, the Tigers went from worst to first. They were also ranked in the final AP Poll (their first ever end of season ranking) and the second year in a row the American finished with a least one team ranked in the final poll. The American will experience another change in 2015 when Navy joins the conference (the first ever conference appearance for the Midshipmen) and the league adds a championship game. How long will the American remain in its current incarnation? The dog days of summer have seen rumors emerge (some credible, some incredible or is that uncredible) about another round of conference expansion. Enjoy this edition of the American while it lasts folks. The classic Tulsa/Navy intersectional matchup may not stand the test of time.

10-Year Anniversary: Dominance Points in the Mountain West and Sun Belt

The 10-year anniversary celebrations continue. Any monetary contributions you would like to make to ensure this blog continues ad infinitum are greatly appreciated. In this episode, we’ll examine the Mountain West and the Sun Belt.

The Mountain West teams are sorted below by dominance points. The core teams (nine) that made up the Mountain West for the majority of the time since 2005 are listed first with their interloping brethren listed separately.

The dominance that TCU, BYU, and to a lesser extent Utah exerted over the Mountain West can still be seen. Despite playing in the Big 12 for three seasons, TCU ranks first among Mountain West members in terms of dominance points. BYU has been an independent since 2011, and yet they still rank fourth overall (and tied with TCU for the best per season average of the nine core teams). TCU, BYU, and Utah won each of the Mountain West championships during the seven seasons beginning in 2005 during which at least one was a member of the Mountain West. The only other member of the nine core teams to win the conference title was San Diego State. The Aztecs shared the 2012 title with Boise State and Fresno State.

The Sun Belt teams are sorted below by dominance points. The core teams (eight) that made up the Sun Belt for the majority of the time since 2005 are listed first with the newcomers listed separately.

The theme for the Sun Belt in the last decade has been one of sharing. Five of the league’s ten championships have been shared, including a three-way tie atop the standings in 2005. Only three teams, Troy, Arkansas State, and Georgia Southern this past season have won an outright conference title. Arkansas State ranks as the most dominant team of the last decade despite employing five different coaches. A few years ago, Troy would appear to have the dominance part locked up, but the Trojans have fallen on (relative) hard times in the past four seasons after winning five consecutive titles (three shared) from 2006-2010. Former Southern Conference powers Georgia Southern and Appalachian State enjoyed auspicious debuts in Sun Belt play, winning a combined 14 of their 16 league games and finishing first and third respectively. At the other end of the success spectrum, Georgia State is still looking for their first conference win after two seasons in the league.

10-Year Anniversary: Dominance Points in Conference USA and the MAC

As I noted in the last post, this blog is celebrating its 10-year anniversary this summer. In that last post, I introduced the concept of ‘Dominance Points’ to determine who has dominated their respective conferences. This system is not designed to compare across conferences (say the Big 12 against the Big 10), but it is designed to compare within conferences (the Big 12 in 2005 versus the Big 12 in 2011). In the last post, we looked at two leagues that no longer exist. In this post we’ll examine a pair of extant conferences.

We'll begin with Conference USA. The Dominance Points for Conference USA teams from 2005-2014 are listed below. The core 12 teams that made up the conference for the majority of that time period are listed first with the eight new members listed separately.

Conference USA still exists, but it has undergone quite the makeover in the last decade. Seven of the twelve teams that populated the conference in 2005 (East Carolina, Houston, Memphis, SMU, Tulane, Tulsa, and UCF) have moved on to the American Athletic Conference and one team has ceased playing Division I football altogether (at least temporarily). To replace the octet, Conference USA has called up teams from the Sun Belt, WAC, FCS, and in direct opposition to the laws of thermodynamics, from nothingness. While the teams that departed were of varying quality, with the four most dominant teams (East Carolina, Tulsa, UCF, and Houston) being joined by a pair of second division squads (Memphis and Tulane), the heft the league lost was significant. From 2005-2012, 14 of the 16 berths in the Conference USA Championship game were held by teams that are now members of the American Athletic Conference with Southern Miss (2006 and 2011) being the lone holdover who appeared in the title game in that span. And recently, the Eagles have gone through a bit of a dry spell. It is entirely too early to get a handle on how the neophytes will perform in the conference, but Middle Tennessee has finished as a runner-up in the East division during both of their campaigns.

Here are the Dominance Points for MAC teams. Once again, the core teams are listed first, with a pair of teams that have been members at different times in the last decade listed separately.

Northern Illinois has dominated the MAC, particularly in the recent past. The Huskies have an active streak of five consecutive West division titles (six overall) and three championships. Central Michigan has also captured three MAC championships, emerging victorious in each of their championship game appearances. In the East division, things have been a little different. Four teams have won the MAC from the East (Akron, Bowling Green, Buffalo, and Miami). Each winner also engineered a mild to massive upset in the MAC Championship Game. Ohio has reached the limits of how dominant a team can be without ever quite reaching the mountaintop. The Bobcats have been consistent winners under coach Frank Solich since his second season in 2006, owning three East division titles. However, the Bobcats have never been able to break through and win the MAC Championship Game, losing twice to Central Michigan and once to Northern Illinois. Bowling Green is the only school from the East division to win consecutive division titles. Temple enjoyed a brief productive period in the MAC, first under Al Golden and then under Steve Addazio before returning to the Big East and later the American Athletic Conference. The Owls never played in the MAC Championship Game, but they did tie for the East division crown in 2009 (with Ohio) and finish a strong second to the Bobcats in 2011.

10-Year Anniversary: Dominance Points in the Big East and WAC

It’s hard to believe, but at the end of July, this blog will be celebrating its 10-year anniversary. As someone who starts a lot of things and rarely finishes them, I am quite surprised I have been able to keep this up for a solid decade. If you’re into nostalgia, or simply a Tennessee hater, here’s a link to my first post (it proved quite clairvoyant). In the interest of celebrating the anniversary, I wanted to come up with a theme I could post about over the course of the summer. I decided to look at each conference and determine which team dominated that conference over the past decade. One way to do this would be to simply look at won/loss record or championships or divisions won. However, I have a lot of free time, so I decided on something a little different. We’ll call them ‘Dominance Points’ and here is how they are calculated. For a conference without divisions, take the number of teams in the conference and award the champion(s) that many points. The larger a conference is, the more points that champion receives as it is ostensibly harder to win an 11-team conference that it is an eight-team conference. Take the second place team and award them the number of teams minus one. Take the third place team and award them the number of teams minus two. Continue on. For example, TCU and Baylor tied for the Big 12 title in 2014. Since the Big 12 had ten teams, both Baylor and TCU receive ten points apiece. Kansas State finished third (there was no second place team since Baylor and TCU tied) so they receive eight points. At the other end of the standings, last place Iowa State gets credit for participating and receives a single point. But what about conferences that have divisions? Give the division champion(s) points equal to the number of teams in the division. So in a six-team division, first gets six, second gets five, third get four, etc. However, if that division champion also wins the conference, give them points equal to the total number of teams in the conference. No double-booking though. Northern Illinois, the 2014 MAC champion, gets 13 points for winning the conference, not 19 for winning their division and the conference. Bowling Green on the other hand, receives 7 for winning their division against six other teams. No attempt is made to break conference or division ties. If three teams tie for a division title, each receives the max number of points, regardless of the team that actually appeared in the conference title game.

With that out of the way, let’s delve into a pair of conferences that did not survive realignment, the Big East and the WAC. Both these conferences ceased to exist following the 2012 season. However, they both live on in my memories and as a pair of basketball leagues.

We'll start with the Big East. Here are the Dominance Points for Big East teams for the period 2005-2012. The eight teams that formed the Big East for the majority of this time period are grouped together, with Temple (a former conference member) listed separately as they were only a member for one season.

West Virginia easily accrued the most dominance points despite leaving the conference following the 2011 season. The Mountaineers never finished lower than second place in seven seasons during this time period. The Mountaineers and Bearcats tied for the most conference titles in this span with four (some shares) apiece. The final season of the Big East featured the always exciting four-way tie at the top of the standings, meaning that of the eight core Big East members, each except South Florida earned at least one share of a conference title from 2005-2012.

Moving on to the WAC. Once again, I have listed the nine core members separately from the Lone Star neophytes who were present for just a single season.

Amazingly, Boise State did not accrue the most Dominance Points, primarily because they were only in the WAC for six seasons. Nevada enjoyed an extra year in the conference and still only edged the Broncos by a single point. After the heavy hitters departed, leaving the WAC a shell of itself in 2012, the Aggies from Utah State won their first conference title since the sharing the Big West championship in 1997 (interestingly, that was also a micro-conference).

Kevin Wilson's War

Full disclosure, I have been pulling for Kevin Wilson ever since he became the head coach of Indiana prior to the 2011 season. I remembered him from such coordinating duties as North by Northwestern and Sam Bradford and the Fortress of Solitude. I had hopes that his brand of offense could bring a consistent winner to Indiana for the first time in nearly two decades. In four seasons, Wilson has gotten the offense humming, nearly pulled off bowl eligibility, and helped Tevin Coleman put up ridiculous video game rushing numbers. Alas, despite those successes, the Hoosiers have yet to have a winning season or qualify for a bowl. With that in mind, did it make sense to bring Wilson back for a fifth season? To answer this question, I looked at coaches from Power 5 (formerly BCS) conferences who did not post a winning season in their first four years and were brought back for a fifth season. I examined how long they lasted at their respective school after the fourth season and what record they produced. I went back and looked at any coach who was coaching during the BCS era (since 1998) because as far as arbitrary dates go, this gives us a decent sample of coaches. In all, twelve coaches in addition to Mr. Wilson, were able to coach four seasons without posting a winning record and were allowed back for a fifth season. The table featuring the twelve coaches is listed below sorted by winning percentage in the first four seasons. In depth analysis to follow.

I’ll start with what I think is the biggest takeaway. Among coaches with losing records in their first four seasons, winning percentage appears to have no impact on how long they stayed at the school or the success they enjoyed. The winningest coach among the cohort, Terry Allen (no, not that Terry Allen) lasted just one additional season at Kansas. In addition, the coaches with the longest tenure, Schiano and McCarney, ranked ninth and tied for eleventh respectively in terms of winning percentage. For me, the second biggest takeaway is that half of the coaches on this list qualified for at least one bowl, with four (one third of the sample) qualifying for multiple postseason appearances. And finally, and this takeaway should be obvious, is that with the exception of Colorado (and that is arguable now), none of these schools is a traditional power. That makes perfect sense. At a school like Alabama or Ohio State, you won’t keep your job for four seasons if you fail to produce a winning record. Meanwhile, at a school like Duke, you are afforded a little more leeway. Other interesting (to me) statistical minutia follows below.

Who is Tom Holmoe? I have been obsessively following college football for a decade now and was more than a casual observer for about twelve years before that, but I have to say, I didn’t recognize his name. Anyway, under his watch, the Cal program cratered before Jeff Tedford revived it.

Dan Hawkins actually got Colorado to a bowl game in his second season, but the Buffs lost that game to finish with a losing record (hence the asterisk). He probably would have been fired before his fifth season, but the school didn’t have the money.

My alma mater actually had the most patience, letting Jim Caldwell get away with six losing seasons before bringing him back for a seventh. Caldwell rewarded the patience with a bowl win, but was fired after another losing campaign in 2000. The move was good for both parties as Wake would go on to hire arguably the best coach in school history, while Caldwell would enjoy considerable success in the NFL. Granted he was asleep at the wheel in Super Bowl XLIV and proved himself to be a coward or slave to conventional wisdom this past January, but he won a bowl game at Wake Forest, a claim only three other men can make.

Another coach from this list (and from Indiana) also got to lead an NFL team. He did not have quite as much success.

So, in summary, if (relatively) recent history is any guide, bringing back a coach with four losing seasons to begin his career is not necessarily a bad move. With a Las Vegas over/under of six wins, statistical projections expect Indiana to be in the mix for a bowl bid in 2015. Waiting another year or two instead of blowing the whole thing up is probably a prudent decision.

The Second Year Stagnation

In the last post we looked at what to expect after teams experience a ‘Second-Year Surge’. Now I want to examine the aftermath of the opposite—the ‘Second-Year Stagnation’. Sometimes a coach steps into a great situation in his first year on campus. Perhaps the previous coach left the cupboard fully stocked, maybe the schedule was unusually easy, or maybe the team just experienced a great deal of good fortune. Then, in Year 2, when fans and administrators expect continued success, the team regresses. Perhaps star players graduated, maybe the team experienced an influx of injuries, or the new coach didn’t recruit very well. Whatever the reason, the team stagnated, and now the coach finds himself in need of a rebound to keep his job. In the macro sense, what are his prospects for a rebound? To answer this question, I looked at the results of all FBS coaches who debuted at a school from 2005-2012 and set the arbitrary definition of ‘stagnation’ to a decrease of at least three regular season wins. If you recall, I used four wins as the baseline for a ‘surge’, but frankly, if we use four wins as the baseline for stagnation, we won’t have very many teams to examine. Using three wins as the baseline yielded nine teams. They are listed chronologically in the table below. The table includes the record in the coaches’ first year, second year or Stagnation Year, and third year or Follow-Up Year. The Dif column is the difference in the Stagnation Year and the Follow-Up Year. Stanford and Temple are color-coded differently because their coaches left after the stagnation (Walt Harris was fired and Steve Addazio took a better job), so they are actually coached by a different guy in the Follow-Up Year.

You’re an adult. You can view the table and judge for yourself, but I will throw out some averages for you. In the ‘Follow-Up Year’, the nine teams that ‘Stagnated’ improved by an average of 1.5 wins in the regular season. However, if we remove the two teams that changed coaches (which we probably should since coaching change represents a great deal of upheaval), the seven remaining teams improved by an average of 1.86 regular season wins. So we know the average team improved by around 1.9 wins, but what if we look at a different kind of average? Yes, I am talking about one of the most unappreciated averages, the mode.

Using the mode, we see the average team improved by one game the following season. However, the mode for this sample is only two teams. This low number should set off a sample size alert. If we look at it another way, five of the seven teams improved by at least one game, six of the seven teams won just as many games the following season, and only one team continued their descent. Here is a visual look at what I just wrote about.

So the most likely expectation after a ‘Stagnation’ is for a modest improvement the following year. With this in mind, which teams from 2014 ‘Stagnated’? Glad you asked.

These four teams declined by an average of three wins in 2013, and Auburn was the lone squad to play in the postseason both years. The good news for this quartet and their head coaches is that they are likely to see modest improvement in 2015. Of course, modest improvement would impact each team differently. An extra two wins would put Auburn in contention for the SEC West title, while modest improvement for the other three teams would get them closer to bowl eligibility.

The Second Year Surge

What images come to mind when I mention the word ‘Surge’? Perhaps the word conjures images of a strategy in the most recent Iraq War. Or perhaps a mid-90s soda. Or perhaps it brings to mind an awkward seven foot basketball player. Unfortunately, this is neither a political, soda connoisseur, nor college basketball blog, so when I speak of surges, I am referring to dramatic increases in win totals for college football teams. Of particular interest here is the ‘Second-Year Surge’. Sometimes when a coach takes over a team, his first season is a lost cause as he must deploy players who were recruited for a different system and likely had a different skill set, or in some cases were just plain bad. With his own system in place for a year and some of his own recruits, the team can sometimes make a dramatic leap forward in his second season. Hence the name, ‘Second-Year Surge’. Well, what happens in the third season or the afterglow if you will? After the team improves, does the arrow keep pointing up, does the team plateau, or do they decline? To answer this question, I looked at the results of all FBS coaches who debuted at a school from 2005-2012 and set the arbitrary definition of a ‘surge’ to an increase of at least four regular season wins. This research yielded 22 teams that surged. They are included with the two tables below listed chronologically (I split the table in two so it would be easier to view). The tables include the record in the coaches’ first year, second year or Surge Year, and third year or Follow-Up Year. The Dif column is the difference in the Surge Year and Follow-Up Year. Kent State, Miami, and San Diego State are color-coded differently because their coaches left after their surge, so they were actually coached by a different guy in the Follow-Up Year.

You’re an adult. You can view the table and judge for yourself, but I will throw out some averages for you. In the ‘Follow-Up Year’, the 22 teams that ‘Surged’ declined by an average of 1.98 wins in the regular season. However, if we remove the three teams that actually changed coaches (which we probably should since coaching change represents a great deal of upheaval), the 19 remaining teams declined by an average of 1.71 regular season wins. So we know the average team declined by around 1.7 wins, but what if we look at a different kind of average? Yes, I am talking about one of the most unappreciated averages, the mode.

Using the mode, we see the average team stayed the same the following season. Seven of the 19 teams finished with the same regular season record in the ‘Follow-Up Year’. Three teams declined by either a half or a whole game (a negligible decline in the grand scheme of things). One team declined by two games, two declined by three games, two declined by four games, one declined by five games, two teams declined by an astounding seven games, and only one team improved (but by an amazing five games). Here is a visual look at what I just wrote about.

So the most likely expectation after a ‘Surge’ is for either a similar record the following year or a slight decline. With this in mind, which teams from 2014 ‘Surged’? Glad you asked.

These six teams improved by an average of almost five wins in 2014, with four playing in postseason games. While it may be tempting to pencil them in for even more success in 2015, recent history suggests we should pump the breaks when projecting their 2015 win total.