Back in August, I headed to Sin City and made a few wagers. Now, four months later, we get to take stock of those wagers and see the good, the bad, and the ugly. In hopes of getting better at this prediction business, I am also going to take an unbiased look at the process and ideas behind each wager. As you know, a broken clock is right twice a day, just as the best laid plans of mice and men sometimes go astray.
Over/Under Win Totals
Miami over 6 wins -200 ($150 to win $75)
Process: Six wins seemed awfully low for a team with Miami's solid peripheral numbers from 2014.
Result: Winner. Yes, one of their victories may have been tainted thanks to some dubious officiating, but the Hurricanes still would have hit even if you go back and award that game to Duke as some on the internet have suggested. Ironically, Miami was probably a better team in 2014, yet they won two fewer regular season games. Ah, the vagaries of a twelve game season. We'll call this a good bet.
South Carolina over 6.5 wins -125 ($50 to win $40)
Process: South Carolina won eleven games in three consecutive seasons. Surely 2014 was a blip on the radar and not a sign of things to come.
Result: Loser. The season began promisingly with a neutral site win against North Carolina. It was all downhill from there though. The coach quit, the team finished dead last in the SEC East, and for good measure lost to the Citadel. An optimist might point out that five of their losses came by a touchdown or less, but that is the only silver lining. This was a horrible bet.
Syracuse over 4.5 wins -120 ($40 to win $33.35)
Process: The offense couldn't possibly be as bad as it was in 2014 and the Orange play in the ACC.
Result: Loser. The Orange won their first three games, then lost eight in a row before winning their season finale for their lame duck head coach. Even though it didn't hit, I still think this was a good bet. I certainly didn't foresee the rise of South Florida (a non-conference game the Orange lost) and the Orange nearly beat Virginia and Pitt. This was a decent bet.
Texas over 6.5 wins +105 ($30 to win $31.50)
Process: This is Texas. They should roll out of bed and win seven games.
Result: Loser. If you had told me after I made this bet that Texas would beat both Oklahoma and Baylor, I would have assumed Texas would at worst be playing in a New Year's Six Bowl. Alas, those were pretty much the only highlights of the season for the Longhorns. Realistically, this bet was toast when Texas botched a late extra point to lose to Cal in their third game of the season. The victory against Oklahoma provided a glimmer of hope, but three weeks later, the Longhorns were shut out by Iowa State. This was another bad bet.
Texas A&M under 8 wins -120 ($40 to win $33.35)
Process: I figured the Aggies one of the more overrated teams in the country. Playing in the SEC West and facing Arizona State in the non-conference, I figured the Aggies could be headed for a 6-6 season.
Result: Push. The Aggies lost four games, with each defeat coming by at least twelve points. They played three games this season outside their home state (and one was against Vanderbilt), yet they still lost four games. Despite the result, I think this was at worst a decent bet. I did not foresee Arizona State being hot garbage this year and the Aggies came very close to losing to both Arkansas and South Carolina.
West Virginia under 7.5 wins -115 ($40 to win $34.80)
Process: West Virginia plays in the deep Big 12 and in 2015 had to play road games at Baylor, Kansas State, Oklahoma, and TCU. Plus their non-conference slate featured a tricky Georgia Southern and a Maryland team that was bowl eligible in 2014.
Result: Winner. It came down to the first Saturday in December, but my main man Bill Snyder came through for me as the Wildcats upset the Mountaineers 24-23 to drop them to 7-5. Throughout my life watching college football, I have found that Bill Snyder is a lot like Jesus. Both were born roughly 2000 years ago and neither will ever let you down. All sacrilege aside, this was a bad bet. West Virginia is probably the best five loss team in the country with some metrics rating them a good team and others a very good team. I was fortunate this one hit.
Games of the Year
October 3rd
South Carolina +6.5 Missouri -110 ($25 to win $22.75)
Process: As I mentioned earlier, I thought South Carolina would improve. Couple that with some expected regression at Missouri and I figured the Gamecocks would keep this one close.
Result: Loser. Missouri won 24-10. Let me rant for a moment here. Missouri scored six, yes, SIX, offensive touchdowns in their eight SEC games. They scored three in this one. You can do the math. In their other seven games, they averaged less than half a touchdown per game! Thanks Jon Hoke and Lorenzo Ward. I'll send you an invoice. I guess this shouldn't have come as a huge surprise though as this Gamecock defense made Greyson Lambert look like the best quarterback in history two weeks prior. Still, if you go by the spread at kickoff, this was a good bet. By the time the game kicked off, Missouri was about a field goal favorite, so I was catching an extra three of three and half points.
October 31st
Oregon State +16 Utah -110 ($25 to win $22.75)
Process: Utah finished in the year end top-25 poll in 2014, but all their conference wins came by six points or fewer.
Result: Winner. Utah won 27-12. The Beavers were a lot less competitive than I assumed they would be in 2015. Thankfully, they played well in about a third of their conference games, and this happened to be one of them. By kickoff, this line had jumped to 25 or 26 points in Utah's favor. I figured I would be ripping this ticket up for sure. I was home for Halloween and my parents do not have the Pac-12 Network. I was handing out candy and causally watching other games and I saw the Beavers were hanging around. Don't ask me how they did it, as I decided to refrain from keeping up with this game on my computer. Amazingly, the Beavers barely covered this number. This was a bad bet that worked out.
October 17th
Pittsburgh +11 Georgia Tech -110 ($25 to win $22.75)
Process: Georgia Tech was overrated heading into 2015. I figured they would win this game by about a touchdown.
Result: Winner. Pitt won outright 31-28. I did a pretty good job of identifying Georgia Tech as a stock to short in 2015. When the game kicked off, the Yellow Jackets were only favored by three and they never came close to covering this larger number. This was a great bet.
November 12th
Virginia Tech +6 Georgia Tech -110 ($25 to win $22.75)
Process: Georgia Tech was overrated heading into 2015 and their games with the Hokies are always close.
Result: Winner. Virginia Tech won outright 23-21. The Hokies fell behind 14-0 early, but Georgia Tech did not score an offensive touchdown the rest of the way. At kickoff, Georgia Tech was favored by one or two points, so I had an extra four points to spare with this line. This was a good bet.
November 21st
Miami +3 Georgia Tech -110 ($25 to win $22.75)
Process: Georgia Tech was overrated heading into 2015 and they have never won in Miami under Paul Johnson.
Result: Winner: Miami won outright 38-21. Georgia Tech turned the ball over 50 times or so (okay, it was only four) and after an early lead, they never threatened to win this game. By kickoff, this game was a pick 'em, so I bought at a good price. This was a good bet.
Miscellaneous Bets
Pittsburgh Pirates 10-1 to win World Series ($15 to win $150)
Process: Pittsburgh is good and baseball is random. Why not?
Result: Loser. The Pirates finished with the second-best record in all of baseball, but ran into the Jake Arrieta buzz saw in the Wild Card Game. This was a decent bet.
Toronto Blue Jays 30-1 to win World Series ($10 to win $300)
Process: Toronto had a great run differential in late July and would improve as their luck evened out. I had no idea they would get David Price.
Result: Loser. Toronto got red hot and won the AL East. Alas, as I said before, baseball is very random and the Blue Jays lost in six games to the eventual World Series Champions. I still had a great time following this team though. I saw one of the more exciting playoff games in history complete with a baffling play that caused the stereotypically laid back Canadians to nearly riot. This was a great bet and if I could have sold this ticket like a stock once the playoffs started, I certainly would have.
Reckless Parlay
$10 to win $900
Process: I only have to get all seven right? Easy money.
Result: I got 4 out of 7 right. I guess that's not too bad. But you don't win any money for that.
Game 1: September 3rd
South Carolina -3 North Carolina (@Charlotte)
Winner
Game 2: September 3rd
Michigan +5.5 Utah
Loser
Game 3: September 3rd
Western Kentucky +2.5 Vanderbilt
Winner
Game 4: September 5th
Northwestern +12 Stanford
Winner
Game 5: September 5th
Arizona State +3 Texas A&M (@ Houston)
Loser
Game 6: September 5th
BYU +5.5 Nebraska
Winner
Game 7: September 5th
Georgia Southern +19 West Virginia
Loser
So that is how the bets went and her is the tale of the tape.
Money Wagered: $510
Money Won: $530.80
Return on Investment: 4.1%
So we won a little money. The economist or investment banker might point out that winning twenty bucks does not cover the opportunity cost of a flight to Vegas and a hotel room. I would point out to that smug individual that my 401(K) lost value over the last quarter and I didn't even get to watch some 18-22 year-olds make that money disappear. And, as I'm sure Las Vegas had hoped, I was just successful enough to come back next year.
Sunday, December 06, 2015
Thursday, December 03, 2015
The Magnificent Seven: Week XIV
We finally got back in the good graces of the football gods as we posted a 4-3 week. This is the last full (or partly full) Saturday of games for like nine months. Let's try and go out on a winning note. As always, home teams in BOLD.
Last Week: 4-3
Overall: 45-44-2
Southern Miss +7.5 Western Kentucky
Southern Miss is one of the biggest surprises of the 2015 college football season. After hitting rock bottom in 2012 following the departure of Larry Fedora, the Eagles have progressed ever so slightly, winning a single game in 2013, three in 2014, and surging to nine wins this season. Head coach Todd Monken will likely be a finalist for some postseason awards. The Eagles are balanced on both sides of the ball ranking second in Conference USA in yards per play and first in yards per play allowed (both stats in league play). In fact, since losing to Marshall in early October, the Eagles have won six straight games with each victory coming by at least three touchdowns. Of course, the Eagles are an underdog in this game primarily because Western Kentucky has been quite impressive as well, in running the table in league play. The Hilltoppers are led by senior quarterback Brandon Doughty who has tossed 40 touchdowns for the second consecutive season. However, the Hilltoppers have gone from seven regular season wins to ten because their defense has gone from a liability to a strength. After allowing 6.7 yards per play against league foes last season (dead last in Conference USA), the Hilltoppers have allowed just 5.2 yards per play to conference opponents this year. Nick Holt, the former head coach of Idaho, has been the defensive coordinator both seasons, so one would think the talent level has improved. I expect this to be one of the more entertaining game of Championship Saturday, and while I wouldn't bet on Southern Miss winning outright, their per play yardage differentials are superior to Western Kentucky's. Look for the Eagles to keep this one close.
Temple +6.5 Houston
The inaugural American Athletic Conference Championship Game will serve as a play-in game for the New Year's Six Bowl bid for the Group of Five. Neither the Owls nor the Cougars were favorites in the preseason to make it to the title game, though both were expected to finish in the top half of their respective divisions. I expected Temple to be an underdog when this line came out as Houston is hosting the game, but this spread seems like it is about about a field goal too high. Outside of their game against a red hot South Florida team, Temple has had a chance to win every game they have played. Their offense is not dynamic enough to run away from anyone, and that likely causes them to be undervalued by the general public. The Owls are also 8-3 against the number as a road underdog under head coach Matt Rhule. Look for that tend to continue here, and don't be surprised if they leave Texas with an outright upset.
Georgia State +21 Georgia Southern
At 5-6, and a huge underdog on Saturday, Georgia State will likely look back on this season as one of missed opportunity. The Panthers have had by far their best season since joining FBS, but they have also lost home games to FBS newbie Charlotte and FCS Liberty. If they had won either of those games, they would be preparing for a bowl bid. As it is, the Panthers will probably have to settle for marked improvement thanks to some patented Trent Miles Third Year Magic. The Panthers will take on another program that is new to FBS. Georgia Southern moved up last year, and despite nine wins and a conference title, were not eligible to play in the postseason. That has been rectified this season as the Eagles have already accepted a bid to the GoDaddy Bowl. Even when they were struggling through their first two seasons as an FBS program, Georgia State was a strong play as a road underdog, and this year they have been even better. The Panthers are 13-3 against the number as a road underdog and 11-2 as a double digit road underdog. The Panthers will be motivated to get to a bowl and upset their in-state brethren. They won't win, but they will stay within three touchdowns.
New Mexico State +3 Louisiana-Monroe
Remember the good old days of Warhawk football? It wasn't that long ago when Louisiana-Monroe was America's Team. In 2012, the Warhawks beat Arkansas and put a scare into both Auburn and Baylor. The Warhawks went 8-5 in 2012 and followed that up with another bowl eligible 6-6 campaign in 2013. However, since then, the Warhawks are just 5-19 and have struggled mightily on offense. The Warhawks have been held below 20 points 13 times in 24 games and are averaging just 18.5 points per game against FBS competition. Their struggles cost them their coach a few weeks ago. The good news for the Warhawks is that they should be able to put some points on the board against a New Mexico State team that is allowing over 45 points per game this year. Despite their struggles defensively, the Aggies have managed to win three games (or thrice as many as the Warhawks). Louisiana-Monroe is the worst team in the Sun Belt and it is shocking to see them favored against anyone. This should be a competitive game, but since you are getting three points, the Aggies are the play.
Kansas State +6.5 West Virginia
As I have written numerous times on this blog, I have a great reverence for Kansas State head coach Bill Snyder. Perhaps my affinity for The Wizard has clouded my judgment here. However, since returning to the sidelines in 2009, the Wildcats have been money in the bank under Snyder. They are an incredible 49-25-1 against the number when facing FBS teams since 2009. Many of those games have begun with the Wildcats as underdogs and ended with an outright victory. In fact, it has happened 15 times, including twice against West Virginia. This is not a vintage Kansas State team, but playing at home and needing a win to guarantee bowl eligibility, I think they are a solid play here.
Florida +17 Alabama (@ Atlanta)
This rematch of the 2009 SEC Championship Game (and 2008, 1999, etc.) appears to be a mismatch. Alabama is one win away from entering the College Football Playoff for the second consecutive year (only Ohio State with the assistance of much chaos could join them as repeat offenders) after winning nine in a row, with eight coming by double digits. Meanwhile, Florida has struggled mightily the past few weeks, barely putting away Vanderbilt, South Carolina, and Florida Atlantic before losing by a humiliating final score against their arch rival. The Gators have averaged just 4.3 yards per play and scored just 55 total points in those four games. One might figure points would be at a premium against an Alabama team that has allowed just 102 points in their nine-game winning streak. This may come as a surprise, but I too expect Florida to struggle scoring points against the Crimson Tide. However, I think this number is a little high considering the game is at a neutral site. If the game were in Brian Dennehy Stadium, I could fathom a line this high. As it is, I think Florida is a shade undervalued, and I expect their defense to keep them (relatively) in this game.
South Alabama +18 Appalachian State
Appalachian State is probably the best team in the Sun Belt, but thanks to their head-to-head loss to Arkansas State, the Mountaineers will probably have to settle for a second place tie in the league. The Mountaineers have one final tuneup before they prepare for their inaugural bowl game. The Mountaineers will play in the Camellia Bowl, which happens to be the bowl game South Alabama played in last year. Spooky eh? At 5-6, South Alabama is playing for a bowl game and should be sufficiently motivated. The Jaguars are also competent enough on defense to keep this one within three scores.
Last Week: 4-3
Overall: 45-44-2
Southern Miss +7.5 Western Kentucky
Southern Miss is one of the biggest surprises of the 2015 college football season. After hitting rock bottom in 2012 following the departure of Larry Fedora, the Eagles have progressed ever so slightly, winning a single game in 2013, three in 2014, and surging to nine wins this season. Head coach Todd Monken will likely be a finalist for some postseason awards. The Eagles are balanced on both sides of the ball ranking second in Conference USA in yards per play and first in yards per play allowed (both stats in league play). In fact, since losing to Marshall in early October, the Eagles have won six straight games with each victory coming by at least three touchdowns. Of course, the Eagles are an underdog in this game primarily because Western Kentucky has been quite impressive as well, in running the table in league play. The Hilltoppers are led by senior quarterback Brandon Doughty who has tossed 40 touchdowns for the second consecutive season. However, the Hilltoppers have gone from seven regular season wins to ten because their defense has gone from a liability to a strength. After allowing 6.7 yards per play against league foes last season (dead last in Conference USA), the Hilltoppers have allowed just 5.2 yards per play to conference opponents this year. Nick Holt, the former head coach of Idaho, has been the defensive coordinator both seasons, so one would think the talent level has improved. I expect this to be one of the more entertaining game of Championship Saturday, and while I wouldn't bet on Southern Miss winning outright, their per play yardage differentials are superior to Western Kentucky's. Look for the Eagles to keep this one close.
Temple +6.5 Houston
The inaugural American Athletic Conference Championship Game will serve as a play-in game for the New Year's Six Bowl bid for the Group of Five. Neither the Owls nor the Cougars were favorites in the preseason to make it to the title game, though both were expected to finish in the top half of their respective divisions. I expected Temple to be an underdog when this line came out as Houston is hosting the game, but this spread seems like it is about about a field goal too high. Outside of their game against a red hot South Florida team, Temple has had a chance to win every game they have played. Their offense is not dynamic enough to run away from anyone, and that likely causes them to be undervalued by the general public. The Owls are also 8-3 against the number as a road underdog under head coach Matt Rhule. Look for that tend to continue here, and don't be surprised if they leave Texas with an outright upset.
Georgia State +21 Georgia Southern
At 5-6, and a huge underdog on Saturday, Georgia State will likely look back on this season as one of missed opportunity. The Panthers have had by far their best season since joining FBS, but they have also lost home games to FBS newbie Charlotte and FCS Liberty. If they had won either of those games, they would be preparing for a bowl bid. As it is, the Panthers will probably have to settle for marked improvement thanks to some patented Trent Miles Third Year Magic. The Panthers will take on another program that is new to FBS. Georgia Southern moved up last year, and despite nine wins and a conference title, were not eligible to play in the postseason. That has been rectified this season as the Eagles have already accepted a bid to the GoDaddy Bowl. Even when they were struggling through their first two seasons as an FBS program, Georgia State was a strong play as a road underdog, and this year they have been even better. The Panthers are 13-3 against the number as a road underdog and 11-2 as a double digit road underdog. The Panthers will be motivated to get to a bowl and upset their in-state brethren. They won't win, but they will stay within three touchdowns.
New Mexico State +3 Louisiana-Monroe
Remember the good old days of Warhawk football? It wasn't that long ago when Louisiana-Monroe was America's Team. In 2012, the Warhawks beat Arkansas and put a scare into both Auburn and Baylor. The Warhawks went 8-5 in 2012 and followed that up with another bowl eligible 6-6 campaign in 2013. However, since then, the Warhawks are just 5-19 and have struggled mightily on offense. The Warhawks have been held below 20 points 13 times in 24 games and are averaging just 18.5 points per game against FBS competition. Their struggles cost them their coach a few weeks ago. The good news for the Warhawks is that they should be able to put some points on the board against a New Mexico State team that is allowing over 45 points per game this year. Despite their struggles defensively, the Aggies have managed to win three games (or thrice as many as the Warhawks). Louisiana-Monroe is the worst team in the Sun Belt and it is shocking to see them favored against anyone. This should be a competitive game, but since you are getting three points, the Aggies are the play.
Kansas State +6.5 West Virginia
As I have written numerous times on this blog, I have a great reverence for Kansas State head coach Bill Snyder. Perhaps my affinity for The Wizard has clouded my judgment here. However, since returning to the sidelines in 2009, the Wildcats have been money in the bank under Snyder. They are an incredible 49-25-1 against the number when facing FBS teams since 2009. Many of those games have begun with the Wildcats as underdogs and ended with an outright victory. In fact, it has happened 15 times, including twice against West Virginia. This is not a vintage Kansas State team, but playing at home and needing a win to guarantee bowl eligibility, I think they are a solid play here.
Florida +17 Alabama (@ Atlanta)
This rematch of the 2009 SEC Championship Game (and 2008, 1999, etc.) appears to be a mismatch. Alabama is one win away from entering the College Football Playoff for the second consecutive year (only Ohio State with the assistance of much chaos could join them as repeat offenders) after winning nine in a row, with eight coming by double digits. Meanwhile, Florida has struggled mightily the past few weeks, barely putting away Vanderbilt, South Carolina, and Florida Atlantic before losing by a humiliating final score against their arch rival. The Gators have averaged just 4.3 yards per play and scored just 55 total points in those four games. One might figure points would be at a premium against an Alabama team that has allowed just 102 points in their nine-game winning streak. This may come as a surprise, but I too expect Florida to struggle scoring points against the Crimson Tide. However, I think this number is a little high considering the game is at a neutral site. If the game were in Brian Dennehy Stadium, I could fathom a line this high. As it is, I think Florida is a shade undervalued, and I expect their defense to keep them (relatively) in this game.
South Alabama +18 Appalachian State
Appalachian State is probably the best team in the Sun Belt, but thanks to their head-to-head loss to Arkansas State, the Mountaineers will probably have to settle for a second place tie in the league. The Mountaineers have one final tuneup before they prepare for their inaugural bowl game. The Mountaineers will play in the Camellia Bowl, which happens to be the bowl game South Alabama played in last year. Spooky eh? At 5-6, South Alabama is playing for a bowl game and should be sufficiently motivated. The Jaguars are also competent enough on defense to keep this one within three scores.
Thursday, November 26, 2015
The Magnificent Seven: Week XIII
It was bound to happen. We posted our worst week of the year in terms of handicapping amateur athletic contests. I have a good feeling about this week though. As always, home teams in BOLD.
Last Week: 2-5
Overall: 41-41-2
San Jose State +7.5 Boise State
Boise State is in a very unfamiliar position heading into their final regular season game. The preseason favorite in the Mountain West currently resides in third place in their division, and a loss to the Spartans would give them four conference losses for the first time since 1996, their first as an FBS program. Their normally stout defense has been shredded in the past three games, as UNLV, New Mexico, and Air Force have combined to average 7.6 yards per play and 31.7 points per game. The Broncos dropped two of those games to drop out of contention in the Mountain Division. Now the Broncos hit the road to take on a San Jose State team that needs a win to become bowl eligible for the second time in three seasons under head coach Ron Caragher. This may be the worst Boise State team in at least a decade, so backing them as a touchdown favorite on the road appears to be a foolhardy endeavor.
Old Dominion +4 Florida Atlantic
I think recency bias is the only explanation for this spread. As you may have heard, Florida Atlantic nearly upset SEC East champion Florida inHank Ben Hill Peter Griffin Stadium last week. The Owls took the Gators to overtime, and could have won with a touchdown and extra point as the Gators botched their point after touchdown. Alas, the Owls were not able to put the ball in the endzone and had to settle for a cover as a 30+ point underdog. While the win would have been historic for the Owls, it would also have been a fluke. The Owls have just a pair of wins on the season, and have lost games to traditional football factories like Buffalo, Rice, and UTEP. In fact, other than FBS newbie, Charlotte, the only other team the Owls have defeated is Florida International. In fact, outside of their win against Charlotte, the Owls have not won a road game in over two years. Old Dominion is playing for a bowl bid, so motivation will not be an issue for the Monarchs. The Owls have nothing to play for, and likely shot their wad last week.
Southern Miss +6.5 Louisiana Tech
Both these teams have come a long way since 2013. That season, the first for head coaches Todd Monken and Skip Holtz, the two squads combined for a 5-19 record and were about two to three touchdowns worse than the average FBS team based on the Simple Rating System. Louisiana Tech improved dramatically last season, finishing 9-5 and winning the West Division in Conference USA. Southern Miss had further to climb, but did manage three wins last season before improving to eight wins thus far in 2015. Both teams sport identical 8-3 overall records and matching 6-1 marks in Conference USA. Thus, this game in Ruston serves as a play-in game for next week's Conference USA Championship Game. I think Louisiana Tech will win, but Southern Miss has been downright dominant against their recent (inferior) competition, outscoring their last five opponents by 157 points. Louisiana Tech has won their share of blowouts as well, but have also struggled to put away Florida International, Texas-San Antonio, and UTEP. Take the Eagles to soar and cover here.
Ohio State +1 Michigan
I don't know that I have seen a bandwagon empty quicker than Ohio State's after last week's loss to Michigan State. Amazing what a last second loss in poor conditions against a quality foe will do. Now, Ohio State has issues to be sure. Anytime you gain less than 150 yards and have your star player openly criticize the coaching staff, things are not great. However, let's not overreact. Ohio State is still 10-1 on the year, and while their resume lacks a signature win, point out to me Michigan's great win. Sure, beating Northwestern is nice, especially in dominant fashion, but let's not kid ourselves with that notion that the Wildcats are a great team. Plus, I would make the argument that Michigan is nowhere near as dominant defensively now as they were seven weeks ago when that game was played. In the five game span beginning with Oregon State and ending with Northwestern, the Wolverines allowed just 2.6 yards per play and an even more impressive 2.8 points per game. Much of that success was likely schedule driven as Oregon State is the worst team in the Pac-12, UNLV is well, UNLV, Maryland is winless in the Big 10, and Northwestern has the worst offense in the Big 10. Since the Northwestern game, the Wolverines have been much more mortal, allowing 5.3 yards per play and 25 points per game. Even with their conference and national title hopes likely dashed, the Buckeyes will still be plenty motivated to continue their domination of the Wolverines. Oh, and Urban Meyer has not lost back-to-back regular season games since 2010. Take the Buckeyes to cover and win outright here.
Syracuse +3 Boston College
Think about this for a second, do you really trust Boston College as any type of favorite? Against FBS foes, the Eagles are currently averaging less than ten points per game! The Eagles have been favored in two games this season, and covered in neither, winning by three against Northern Illinois as a three and a half point favorite and losing the ugliest game of football this year to my alma mater as a nine point favorite. The Eagles are favored her because they played Notre Dame tough last week. But my friends, there is a big difference between playing an opponent tough as a huge underdog and covering a number as a favorite. The Orange are 3-0 against the number as a home underdog this season, and despite the firing of head coach Scott Shafer earlier this week (Shafer will coach this game), will make it 4-0 in the role on Saturday.
Illinois +3.5 Northwestern @ Soldier Field
Northwestern is one of the more interesting teams of 2015. The Wildcats are very bad on offense, averaging just 4.2 yards per play against Big 10 foes (last in the conference). However, their defense keeps them in games (fourth in the Big 10 in yards per play allowed in league games) and they have won all the close ones (5-0 record in one-score games) thanks to come combination of clutch play, turnovers, randomness, or voodoo. The Wildcats have some good wins this season, beating Stanford, Penn State, and Wisconsin (not to mention, although I guess I am mentioning Duke, Minnesota, and Nebraska). Now, to get to ten regular season wins for the first time since 1995, all the Wildcats have to do it beat listless Illinois. Simple right? Well, for one, the Illini are not that listless. Under interim head coach Bill Cubit, Illinois needs just a single win to become bowl eligible. On a per play basis, the Illini actually appear to be a better team than the Wildcats, so this line appears to be artificially inflated by Northwestern's record. Since the spread is more than a field goal, take the Illini to cover here and don't be surprised if they win outright.
Cal -3.5 Arizona State
Since opening the year 5-0, the Cal Bears have hit the proverbial skids, winning just once in their last six games. Thankfully, Oregon State is enduring a season of futility and provided the Bears with the additional win necessary for bowl eligibility. Arizona State joined the Bears in becoming bowl eligible by beating their in-state rival last week. While the Sun Devils won by 15, the final score was misleading thanks to a pair of interception return touchdowns. Arizona State is notoriously poor as a road underdog under Todd Graham, going just 3-7 against the number in such a role. Look for that trend to continue in an easy home win for Cal.
Last Week: 2-5
Overall: 41-41-2
San Jose State +7.5 Boise State
Boise State is in a very unfamiliar position heading into their final regular season game. The preseason favorite in the Mountain West currently resides in third place in their division, and a loss to the Spartans would give them four conference losses for the first time since 1996, their first as an FBS program. Their normally stout defense has been shredded in the past three games, as UNLV, New Mexico, and Air Force have combined to average 7.6 yards per play and 31.7 points per game. The Broncos dropped two of those games to drop out of contention in the Mountain Division. Now the Broncos hit the road to take on a San Jose State team that needs a win to become bowl eligible for the second time in three seasons under head coach Ron Caragher. This may be the worst Boise State team in at least a decade, so backing them as a touchdown favorite on the road appears to be a foolhardy endeavor.
Old Dominion +4 Florida Atlantic
I think recency bias is the only explanation for this spread. As you may have heard, Florida Atlantic nearly upset SEC East champion Florida in
Southern Miss +6.5 Louisiana Tech
Both these teams have come a long way since 2013. That season, the first for head coaches Todd Monken and Skip Holtz, the two squads combined for a 5-19 record and were about two to three touchdowns worse than the average FBS team based on the Simple Rating System. Louisiana Tech improved dramatically last season, finishing 9-5 and winning the West Division in Conference USA. Southern Miss had further to climb, but did manage three wins last season before improving to eight wins thus far in 2015. Both teams sport identical 8-3 overall records and matching 6-1 marks in Conference USA. Thus, this game in Ruston serves as a play-in game for next week's Conference USA Championship Game. I think Louisiana Tech will win, but Southern Miss has been downright dominant against their recent (inferior) competition, outscoring their last five opponents by 157 points. Louisiana Tech has won their share of blowouts as well, but have also struggled to put away Florida International, Texas-San Antonio, and UTEP. Take the Eagles to soar and cover here.
Ohio State +1 Michigan
I don't know that I have seen a bandwagon empty quicker than Ohio State's after last week's loss to Michigan State. Amazing what a last second loss in poor conditions against a quality foe will do. Now, Ohio State has issues to be sure. Anytime you gain less than 150 yards and have your star player openly criticize the coaching staff, things are not great. However, let's not overreact. Ohio State is still 10-1 on the year, and while their resume lacks a signature win, point out to me Michigan's great win. Sure, beating Northwestern is nice, especially in dominant fashion, but let's not kid ourselves with that notion that the Wildcats are a great team. Plus, I would make the argument that Michigan is nowhere near as dominant defensively now as they were seven weeks ago when that game was played. In the five game span beginning with Oregon State and ending with Northwestern, the Wolverines allowed just 2.6 yards per play and an even more impressive 2.8 points per game. Much of that success was likely schedule driven as Oregon State is the worst team in the Pac-12, UNLV is well, UNLV, Maryland is winless in the Big 10, and Northwestern has the worst offense in the Big 10. Since the Northwestern game, the Wolverines have been much more mortal, allowing 5.3 yards per play and 25 points per game. Even with their conference and national title hopes likely dashed, the Buckeyes will still be plenty motivated to continue their domination of the Wolverines. Oh, and Urban Meyer has not lost back-to-back regular season games since 2010. Take the Buckeyes to cover and win outright here.
Syracuse +3 Boston College
Think about this for a second, do you really trust Boston College as any type of favorite? Against FBS foes, the Eagles are currently averaging less than ten points per game! The Eagles have been favored in two games this season, and covered in neither, winning by three against Northern Illinois as a three and a half point favorite and losing the ugliest game of football this year to my alma mater as a nine point favorite. The Eagles are favored her because they played Notre Dame tough last week. But my friends, there is a big difference between playing an opponent tough as a huge underdog and covering a number as a favorite. The Orange are 3-0 against the number as a home underdog this season, and despite the firing of head coach Scott Shafer earlier this week (Shafer will coach this game), will make it 4-0 in the role on Saturday.
Illinois +3.5 Northwestern @ Soldier Field
Northwestern is one of the more interesting teams of 2015. The Wildcats are very bad on offense, averaging just 4.2 yards per play against Big 10 foes (last in the conference). However, their defense keeps them in games (fourth in the Big 10 in yards per play allowed in league games) and they have won all the close ones (5-0 record in one-score games) thanks to come combination of clutch play, turnovers, randomness, or voodoo. The Wildcats have some good wins this season, beating Stanford, Penn State, and Wisconsin (not to mention, although I guess I am mentioning Duke, Minnesota, and Nebraska). Now, to get to ten regular season wins for the first time since 1995, all the Wildcats have to do it beat listless Illinois. Simple right? Well, for one, the Illini are not that listless. Under interim head coach Bill Cubit, Illinois needs just a single win to become bowl eligible. On a per play basis, the Illini actually appear to be a better team than the Wildcats, so this line appears to be artificially inflated by Northwestern's record. Since the spread is more than a field goal, take the Illini to cover here and don't be surprised if they win outright.
Cal -3.5 Arizona State
Since opening the year 5-0, the Cal Bears have hit the proverbial skids, winning just once in their last six games. Thankfully, Oregon State is enduring a season of futility and provided the Bears with the additional win necessary for bowl eligibility. Arizona State joined the Bears in becoming bowl eligible by beating their in-state rival last week. While the Sun Devils won by 15, the final score was misleading thanks to a pair of interception return touchdowns. Arizona State is notoriously poor as a road underdog under Todd Graham, going just 3-7 against the number in such a role. Look for that trend to continue in an easy home win for Cal.
Tuesday, November 17, 2015
The Magnificent Seven: Week XII
Well, after what seemed like months of losing, we finally posted a winning mark in handicapping games. 4-3 is not great, but we'll take it. Let's try for a repeat. As always, home teams in BOLD.
Last Week: 4-3
Overall: 39-36-2
Central Florida +17 East Carolina
Both the Pirates and Knights have endured disappointing seasons in 2015. These two former Conference USA powers combined for a 17-9 record last season (12-4 in the American Athletic Conference). Ah, but things can change in a hurry in college football. The Knights are winless in 2015, having lost to good teams (Stanford), bad teams (Tulane), and FCS teams (Furman). East Carolina has also struggled and at 4-6, the Pirates are in danger of missing out on a bowl for the first time since 2011. East Carolina has had a real tough go of it on offense, with the departure of offensive coordinator Lincoln Riley to Oklahoma and the matriculation of quarterback Shane Carden and record setting receiver Justin Hardy. After ranking no lower than fourth in their conference in terms of yards per play over the past three seasons, the Pirates are an uncharacteristic ninth in that category in the twelve team American. Taking a team that struggles on offense to cover a double-digit spread on the road against a team hungry for their first win is a recipe for disaster.
Florida International +16.5 Western Kentucky
Florida International is coming off a 52-0 beatdown at the hands of Marshall. So naturally, they are the play at home against perhaps the best team in Conference USA right? Here are a few reasons I think the Panthers are a good play. For starters, the Panthers have five wins, and obviously need a sixth qualify for a bowl game. Despite the tough odds, the Panthers will likely be inspired to get to the postseason. In addition, this game is virtually meaningless to Western Kentucky. Their hopes for a division and eventual conference title will come down to their Black Friday showdown at home against Marshall. I think the Hilltoppers will be looking ahead. Finally, Western Kentucky has not covered as a double digit favorite this year, failing to cover a large spread at North Texas and pushing later in the year at Old Dominion. Western Kentucky won't lose, but the Panthers will keep this one close.
Duke +2.5 Virginia
The Duke Blue Devils are in uncharted territory under head coach David Cutcliffe. Barring some sanctions that manifest themselves over the final three weeks of the season, Duke will be playing in their fourth consecutive bowl game for the first time in school history. That is quite an accomplishment considering the Blue Devils played in just two bowls between 1961 and 2011. Incidentally, Duke has not won a bowl game since 1960, when they were coached by Bill Murray (unfortunately, it was not that Bill Murray). The Blue Devils have been money in the bank as a road underdog the past few seasons, posting a 6-2 mark against the number in such a role (with six outright upsets). Meanwhile, Virginia is just 2-7-1 as a home favorite against the number since 2012. Couple that with the fact that Duke is probably the better team and has won three straight in the series, and they are an easy play here.
Louisville +2.5 Pittsburgh
Louisville disappeared from the national radar after their 0-3 start, but the team coached by one of the easiest men to hate in sports has won six of seven and with a win here, would finish tied for second in the Atlantic Division of the ACC. On the other sideline, the Panthers actually have an outside shot at winning the Coastal Division. The Panthers need to win their final two games (against Louisville and Miami) and have North Carolina lose both of their final games (Virginia Tech and NC State). It could kindly be referred to as a 'snowball's chance', but the possibility does exist. While a division title by Pitt is a longshot, a much more likely outcome is a close game on Saturday. Louisville has played nine games against FBS opponents. Seven have been decided by a touchdown or less. Pitt has also played nine games against FBS opponents. Six have been decided by a touchdown or less. With Pitt's upset win over Duke last week, they are probably a little overvalued here. Take the Cardinal to cover and win outright here.
New Mexico State +15.5 Louisiana-Lafayette
The Ragin' Cajuns are in danger of missing out on a bowl game for the first time under head coach Mark Hudspeth. At 4-5, Lafayette needs two victories in their final three games to become bowl eligible. After facing the Aggies, the Cajuns go on the road to take on Appalachian State (perhaps the best team in the Sun Belt) and then return home to face Troy. Winning in Boone will be a challenge, so it behooves the Cajuns to beat the Aggies. That will not be as easy as it would have been in past years. While the Aggies have just a pair of wins, they have beaten more than one FBS team for the first time since 2011! Lafayette has no business being favored by double-digits against any team in FBS, even at home. Take the Aggies to keep this one close.
Colorado State -2 New Mexico
For the first time since 2007, New Mexico is bowl eligible. The Lobos have won their past two games in increasingly improbable fashion. Two weeks ago, they were twenty point home underdogs to Utah State. They won by a point. Then last week, they were thirty point underdogs at Boise State. They won by seven, although the margin at the end was incredibly close. Now the Aggies return home with a shot at the Mountain Division title (the Lobos play Air Force next week). They will face a Colorado State team looking for its third consecutive bowl appearance, and first under rookie head coach Mike Bobo. You may remember Bobo for his work as the offensive coordinator of the Georgia Bulldogs, where he is probably still blamed for Georgia's offensive struggles this season. The Rams struggled in the first half of the season, primarily due to the schedule, going 2-4 with losses to Minnesota, Colorado, Utah State, and Boise State. Since the schedule has eased up in the second half, the Rams have improved, winning three of four with the lone loss coming to perhaps the best team in the conference. Colorado State still needs one win to become bowl eligible, and after two huge wins by the Lobos, I think the Rams will be more hungry than the wolves on Saturday.
Missouri +9 Tennessee
After a rough three game stretch where they scored a grand total twelve points, the Missouri offense has gotten on track (by their standards) in the last two games, scoring 33 combined points and even winning a game for the first time in six weeks. The win came amidst a week of turmoil where the Missouri players threatened to not play against BYU and head coach Gary Pinkel announced his retirement effective the end of the season. With five wins, Pinkel will coach at least two additional games and needs an upset win over the Vols or Arkansas to coach in a postseason game. Whether they win or not, this clash with Tennessee will mark Pinkel's final home game as coach of the Tigers. That intangibility coupled with the strong Missouri defense makes the Tigers the play here.
Last Week: 4-3
Overall: 39-36-2
Central Florida +17 East Carolina
Both the Pirates and Knights have endured disappointing seasons in 2015. These two former Conference USA powers combined for a 17-9 record last season (12-4 in the American Athletic Conference). Ah, but things can change in a hurry in college football. The Knights are winless in 2015, having lost to good teams (Stanford), bad teams (Tulane), and FCS teams (Furman). East Carolina has also struggled and at 4-6, the Pirates are in danger of missing out on a bowl for the first time since 2011. East Carolina has had a real tough go of it on offense, with the departure of offensive coordinator Lincoln Riley to Oklahoma and the matriculation of quarterback Shane Carden and record setting receiver Justin Hardy. After ranking no lower than fourth in their conference in terms of yards per play over the past three seasons, the Pirates are an uncharacteristic ninth in that category in the twelve team American. Taking a team that struggles on offense to cover a double-digit spread on the road against a team hungry for their first win is a recipe for disaster.
Florida International +16.5 Western Kentucky
Florida International is coming off a 52-0 beatdown at the hands of Marshall. So naturally, they are the play at home against perhaps the best team in Conference USA right? Here are a few reasons I think the Panthers are a good play. For starters, the Panthers have five wins, and obviously need a sixth qualify for a bowl game. Despite the tough odds, the Panthers will likely be inspired to get to the postseason. In addition, this game is virtually meaningless to Western Kentucky. Their hopes for a division and eventual conference title will come down to their Black Friday showdown at home against Marshall. I think the Hilltoppers will be looking ahead. Finally, Western Kentucky has not covered as a double digit favorite this year, failing to cover a large spread at North Texas and pushing later in the year at Old Dominion. Western Kentucky won't lose, but the Panthers will keep this one close.
Duke +2.5 Virginia
The Duke Blue Devils are in uncharted territory under head coach David Cutcliffe. Barring some sanctions that manifest themselves over the final three weeks of the season, Duke will be playing in their fourth consecutive bowl game for the first time in school history. That is quite an accomplishment considering the Blue Devils played in just two bowls between 1961 and 2011. Incidentally, Duke has not won a bowl game since 1960, when they were coached by Bill Murray (unfortunately, it was not that Bill Murray). The Blue Devils have been money in the bank as a road underdog the past few seasons, posting a 6-2 mark against the number in such a role (with six outright upsets). Meanwhile, Virginia is just 2-7-1 as a home favorite against the number since 2012. Couple that with the fact that Duke is probably the better team and has won three straight in the series, and they are an easy play here.
We came. We saw. We kicked their ass.
Louisville +2.5 Pittsburgh
Louisville disappeared from the national radar after their 0-3 start, but the team coached by one of the easiest men to hate in sports has won six of seven and with a win here, would finish tied for second in the Atlantic Division of the ACC. On the other sideline, the Panthers actually have an outside shot at winning the Coastal Division. The Panthers need to win their final two games (against Louisville and Miami) and have North Carolina lose both of their final games (Virginia Tech and NC State). It could kindly be referred to as a 'snowball's chance', but the possibility does exist. While a division title by Pitt is a longshot, a much more likely outcome is a close game on Saturday. Louisville has played nine games against FBS opponents. Seven have been decided by a touchdown or less. Pitt has also played nine games against FBS opponents. Six have been decided by a touchdown or less. With Pitt's upset win over Duke last week, they are probably a little overvalued here. Take the Cardinal to cover and win outright here.
New Mexico State +15.5 Louisiana-Lafayette
The Ragin' Cajuns are in danger of missing out on a bowl game for the first time under head coach Mark Hudspeth. At 4-5, Lafayette needs two victories in their final three games to become bowl eligible. After facing the Aggies, the Cajuns go on the road to take on Appalachian State (perhaps the best team in the Sun Belt) and then return home to face Troy. Winning in Boone will be a challenge, so it behooves the Cajuns to beat the Aggies. That will not be as easy as it would have been in past years. While the Aggies have just a pair of wins, they have beaten more than one FBS team for the first time since 2011! Lafayette has no business being favored by double-digits against any team in FBS, even at home. Take the Aggies to keep this one close.
Colorado State -2 New Mexico
For the first time since 2007, New Mexico is bowl eligible. The Lobos have won their past two games in increasingly improbable fashion. Two weeks ago, they were twenty point home underdogs to Utah State. They won by a point. Then last week, they were thirty point underdogs at Boise State. They won by seven, although the margin at the end was incredibly close. Now the Aggies return home with a shot at the Mountain Division title (the Lobos play Air Force next week). They will face a Colorado State team looking for its third consecutive bowl appearance, and first under rookie head coach Mike Bobo. You may remember Bobo for his work as the offensive coordinator of the Georgia Bulldogs, where he is probably still blamed for Georgia's offensive struggles this season. The Rams struggled in the first half of the season, primarily due to the schedule, going 2-4 with losses to Minnesota, Colorado, Utah State, and Boise State. Since the schedule has eased up in the second half, the Rams have improved, winning three of four with the lone loss coming to perhaps the best team in the conference. Colorado State still needs one win to become bowl eligible, and after two huge wins by the Lobos, I think the Rams will be more hungry than the wolves on Saturday.
Missouri +9 Tennessee
After a rough three game stretch where they scored a grand total twelve points, the Missouri offense has gotten on track (by their standards) in the last two games, scoring 33 combined points and even winning a game for the first time in six weeks. The win came amidst a week of turmoil where the Missouri players threatened to not play against BYU and head coach Gary Pinkel announced his retirement effective the end of the season. With five wins, Pinkel will coach at least two additional games and needs an upset win over the Vols or Arkansas to coach in a postseason game. Whether they win or not, this clash with Tennessee will mark Pinkel's final home game as coach of the Tigers. That intangibility coupled with the strong Missouri defense makes the Tigers the play here.
Sunday, November 15, 2015
Poll Position: November 15
With the introduction of the College Football Playoff last season, polls are a superfluous endeavor. However, they still give us a rough approximation of the general consensus of teams. With eleven weeks of the college football season in the books (frowny face), and with the internet being invented so that random people can bitch about trivial things they have no control over, here are my thoughts on the latest AP Poll. I apologize for not giving my thoughts on the poll last week, but I was busy and the poll was relatively unchanged from the week before.
Overrated:
Iowa (6th) - With the laws of polls, I guess you have to move these guys up as they keep winning. Feel like they are destined to lose to Nebraska on Black Friday.
Iowa (6th) - With the laws of polls, I guess you have to move these guys up as they keep winning. Feel like they are destined to lose to Nebraska on Black Friday.
Underrated:
Oklahoma (7th) - They moved up five spots after their win in Waco, and I am still 'all in' on the Sooners bandwagon.
Oklahoma (7th) - They moved up five spots after their win in Waco, and I am still 'all in' on the Sooners bandwagon.
Leaving the Poll:
UCLA - Bruins still have a chance to get to the Pac-12 championship game, but it will take consecutive road wins (Utah and Southern Cal) to do it.
Mississippi State - They moved the ball their first few drives against the Tide, but had no points to show for it. Then, the avalanche came.
Temple - Such is the life of a mid-major. One upset undoes a season of great work.
Memphis - See Temple comment. Although, the Tigers did blow a great chance to get back in the division race in the American West.
UCLA - Bruins still have a chance to get to the Pac-12 championship game, but it will take consecutive road wins (Utah and Southern Cal) to do it.
Mississippi State - They moved the ball their first few drives against the Tide, but had no points to show for it. Then, the avalanche came.
Temple - Such is the life of a mid-major. One upset undoes a season of great work.
Memphis - See Temple comment. Although, the Tigers did blow a great chance to get back in the division race in the American West.
Joining the Poll:
Southern Cal (22nd) - Trojans survived a Friday night in Boulder. Their next two are against Oregon and UCLA. If they win them both (or split and get some help), they will be in the Pac-12 Championship Game.
Oregon (23rd) - Ducks have won four straight and their latest likely keeps the Pac-12 out of the playoff picture.
Washington State (24th) - Congrats to the Cougars who are in the poll for the first time since a brief stay in 2006. The upset over UCLA also clinched their first wining season since 2003!
Ole Miss (25th) - I guess with four open spaces, they had to add an SEC team.
Southern Cal (22nd) - Trojans survived a Friday night in Boulder. Their next two are against Oregon and UCLA. If they win them both (or split and get some help), they will be in the Pac-12 Championship Game.
Oregon (23rd) - Ducks have won four straight and their latest likely keeps the Pac-12 out of the playoff picture.
Washington State (24th) - Congrats to the Cougars who are in the poll for the first time since a brief stay in 2006. The upset over UCLA also clinched their first wining season since 2003!
Ole Miss (25th) - I guess with four open spaces, they had to add an SEC team.
Around the Mid-Major Universe:
I am an admitted mid-major apologist, so I always enjoy it when some non-traditional powers find their way into the poll. Houston (13th) and Navy (19th) are the only mid-majors remaining in the poll. They will face off on Black Friday with the American West division on the line. Barring an upset this week or a loss in the American Athletic Championship Game (Temple is the likely opponent), the Midshipmen or Cougars are your likely Group of Five representative in the New Year's Six Bowl games. In the MAC, Bowling Green has clinched the East division for the third straight year (and received a handful of votes in the latest poll). The Falcons opponent is TBD as Northern Illinois, Toledo, and Western Michigan are all 5-1 in league play. Northern Illinois hosts Western Michigan on Wednesday while Toledo travels to Bowling Green on Tuesday. By Thursday morning, Northern Illinois could clinch a spot in the MAC Championship Game. In the Mountain West, Boise State and Utah State both lost over the weekend. Boise fell as a huge home favorite to New Mexico (congrats to Los Lobos who are bowl eligible for the first time since 2007) and Utah State lost at Air Force. The Aggies are out of division contention after their third loss in four games, and Air Force is alone in first place. The Falcons travel to Boise on Friday night with a chance to clinch the Mountain Division. In the West Division, San Diego State is quietly unbeaten in league play and can clinch the division with another win and make plans to host the Mountain West Championship Game. The Conference USA storyline is the same as it has been for most of the season. Marshall and Western Kentucky will decide the East on Black Friday while Louisiana Tech ans Southern Miss will decide the West the following day. In the Sun Belt, Arkansas State remains unbeaten in league play and with New Mexico State and Texas State left on the docket (combined 4-14 record), an outright league title seems a foregone conclusion. Independent BYU blew their chance to join the poll as they lost to an inspired Missouri squad on Saturday.
Ranked Matchups This Week:
Michigan State (9th) @ Ohio State (2nd) - GameDay will be there. Hopefully the game is competitive even though Michigan State has been far from elite this season.
Baylor (10th) @ Oklahoma State (4th) - A win by the Cowboys will have them set up for perhaps the biggest Bedlam in history.
TCU (11th) @ Oklahoma (7th) - See previous comment.
LSU (17th) @ Ole Miss (25th) - The AVB (Arkansas Victims' Bowl).
Northwestern (20th) @ Wisconsin (21st) - Wisconsin has faint division title hopes and Northwestern has a shot at ten wins in the regular season.
Southern Cal (22nd) @ Oregon (23rd) - A month ago, these two were huge disappointments. Now, the winner has a chance to finish in the top-ten of the final polls.
I am an admitted mid-major apologist, so I always enjoy it when some non-traditional powers find their way into the poll. Houston (13th) and Navy (19th) are the only mid-majors remaining in the poll. They will face off on Black Friday with the American West division on the line. Barring an upset this week or a loss in the American Athletic Championship Game (Temple is the likely opponent), the Midshipmen or Cougars are your likely Group of Five representative in the New Year's Six Bowl games. In the MAC, Bowling Green has clinched the East division for the third straight year (and received a handful of votes in the latest poll). The Falcons opponent is TBD as Northern Illinois, Toledo, and Western Michigan are all 5-1 in league play. Northern Illinois hosts Western Michigan on Wednesday while Toledo travels to Bowling Green on Tuesday. By Thursday morning, Northern Illinois could clinch a spot in the MAC Championship Game. In the Mountain West, Boise State and Utah State both lost over the weekend. Boise fell as a huge home favorite to New Mexico (congrats to Los Lobos who are bowl eligible for the first time since 2007) and Utah State lost at Air Force. The Aggies are out of division contention after their third loss in four games, and Air Force is alone in first place. The Falcons travel to Boise on Friday night with a chance to clinch the Mountain Division. In the West Division, San Diego State is quietly unbeaten in league play and can clinch the division with another win and make plans to host the Mountain West Championship Game. The Conference USA storyline is the same as it has been for most of the season. Marshall and Western Kentucky will decide the East on Black Friday while Louisiana Tech ans Southern Miss will decide the West the following day. In the Sun Belt, Arkansas State remains unbeaten in league play and with New Mexico State and Texas State left on the docket (combined 4-14 record), an outright league title seems a foregone conclusion. Independent BYU blew their chance to join the poll as they lost to an inspired Missouri squad on Saturday.
Ranked Matchups This Week:
Michigan State (9th) @ Ohio State (2nd) - GameDay will be there. Hopefully the game is competitive even though Michigan State has been far from elite this season.
Baylor (10th) @ Oklahoma State (4th) - A win by the Cowboys will have them set up for perhaps the biggest Bedlam in history.
TCU (11th) @ Oklahoma (7th) - See previous comment.
LSU (17th) @ Ole Miss (25th) - The AVB (Arkansas Victims' Bowl).
Northwestern (20th) @ Wisconsin (21st) - Wisconsin has faint division title hopes and Northwestern has a shot at ten wins in the regular season.
Southern Cal (22nd) @ Oregon (23rd) - A month ago, these two were huge disappointments. Now, the winner has a chance to finish in the top-ten of the final polls.
Wednesday, November 11, 2015
The Magnificent Seven: Week XI
On the plus side, I had my best week since September last week. On the downside, I still went just 3-3-1. Hopefully, we can finally breakthrough this week. As always, home teams in BOLD.
Last Week: 3-3-1
Overall: 35-33-2
Purdue +16 Northwestern
Northwestern is 18th in the latest College Football Playoff Rankings, coming off an exciting home win over Penn State, and on their way to their first bowl appearance since 2012. And now, sorry ass Purdue strolls into town as a big underdog. Northwestern should roll right? As Lee Corso might say, 'Not so fast, my friend!'. While Purdue has been horrendous under Darrell Hazell, posting a 6-27 overall record, the Boilermakers have been solid plays as a double digit road underdog. They are 6-3 against the spread in that role with five consecutive covers. Plus, Northwestern finds themselves in the dreaded sandwich game. After a tight contest with Penn State last week, the Boilermakers have Wisconsin on deck in Madison next week. Think they might be looking ahead? I do.
Georgia +1.5 Auburn
I am having a little trouble reconciling this spread with the seasonal numbers. Yes, Auburn has played better of late, beating Texas A&M after staying close with Ole Miss and taking Arkansas to overtime in their previous two games. However, despite their improved play, the Auburn offense has still only averaged 5.6 yards per play in that three-game span. Prorated to an entire season, that number would rank sixth in the SEC, hardly an elite showing. It should also be noted that Arkansas ranks dead last in the SEC in yards per play allowed and Texas A&M ranks twelfth in that category (Ole Miss is fifth, but is not quite as stout as we all thought back in early October). Of course, Georgia has had offensive difficulties of their own, scoring zero touchdowns in their two games going into Kentucky. As is usually the case for SEC teams, Kentucky is the cure for what ails you. The Bulldogs put three touchdown on the board and gained 300 yards on the ground against the Wildcats. It should also be noted the two teams that shut down Georgia prior to their clash with the Wildcats, Florida and Missouri, rank first and second in the SEC in yards per play allowed. Georgia has won seven of the last nine in this series with the two losses coming courtesy of Cam Newton and a miracle conversion. I like Georgia to win this one outright.
Ohio State -16 Illinois
I know the talking heads have repeated it ad nauseum on ESPN and FS1, but the Ohio State Buckeyes are a different team with JT Barrett under center. Barrett returns this week after his suspension for operating a vehicle while intoxicated. With Barrett replacing Cardale Jones, the Buckeye offense should click and eclipse the 30-point barrier. If the Buckeyes can move the ball and finish drives, they should be able to cover this large number as Illinois lacks the offensive firepower to generate explosive plays against Ohio State. I think the Buckeyes win this one by three touchdowns.
Utah State -1 Air Force
Barring another Boise State loss, Utah State likely blew their chance at a division title last week when they fell at New Mexico (as 20 point favorites). The Aggies significantly outplayed the Lobos everywhere, but the scoreboard. They averaged nearly a yards more per play than the Lobos, but turned the ball over on downs twice inside the New Mexico 30, lost a fumble inside the New Mexico 30, lost a fumble inside their own five, and missed a field goal. Of course, we must give New Mexico credit for capitalizing on the Aggies' woes, but that result seems to have significantly depressed the point spread in this game. Air Force has been tough at home since the start of 2014, winning eleven consecutive games at Falcon Stadium. However, the combined record of the FBS teams they have beaten at home this season is an unimpressive 9-28. Utah State is by far the best team they will have faced in the friendly confines this year. With a spread this low, the Aggies are the play.
Rutgers +9.5 Nebraska
Thanks to some dubious officiating last week, Nebraska may have saved their season. And by saved their season, I mean potentially earned themselves a nondescript bowl bid. Nebraska needs to win their final two games, on the road at Rutgers and after a week of respite, at home against Iowa to get to 6-6. I know Iowa is unbeaten, but a rested, better than their record Nebraska team playing at home feels like at least a 50/50 proposition in my mind. However, before the showdown with Iowa, Nebraska must do something they have never done - win at Rutgers. Alright, full disclosure, Nebraska has never played at Rutgers, but that doesn't make the preceding statement any less true. The Cornhuskers did beat the Knights in New York in 1920 (I'm sure your grandfather has great stories about that game), but last year's battle in Lincoln was their first meeting since Woodrow Wilson was running things. The Cornhuskers have been road favorites in two games this season, and have lost both. I would be very shocked if Rutgers pulls out the win here, but Nebraska's defense is just bad enough to allow the Knights to stay close.
LSU -7.5 Arkansas
While I am usually loathe to back Les Miles as a favorite, primarily because he does a pretty bad job of covering the spread, I think the Tigers are a good play here for several reasons. The public seems to have not only cleared the LSU bandwagon after their loss to Alabama, but spray painted it a certain hue of Crimson, set it on fire, and rolled it down the hill. How else to explain why LSU, a team that has won all their home games save versus Florida by at least 21 points, is scarcely more than a touchdown favorite against Arkansas. I know the Hogs are coming off a big road win at Ole Miss, but if you watched that game, it perfectly summed up their season. The Hogs have a powerful offense, but are held back by a defense that is the worst in the SEC (based on yards per play). Against the six Power Five teams Arkansas has faced (five SEC teams and Texas Tech), the Hogs have allowed 34.7 points per game and 6.57 yards per play. The Hogs allowed three teams (Texas Tech, Texas A&M, and Ole Miss) to average more than eight yards per play against them. Add in the revenge factor after last year's bloodletting in Fayetteville and you have all the ingredients for an LSU blowout.
Arizona +6 Utah
Like TCU, Utah had a rough start to life in a power conference. In their first three seasons in the Pac-12, the Utes won just a third of their conference games and endured two consecutive losing seasons. However, over the past year and a half, the Utes have won twice as many Pac-12 games as they have lost and are in contention for a division title. The Utes aren't great on either side of the ball, but they win the close ones (6-2 league record in one-score games since the start of last season), score in unconventional ways (seven non-offensive touchdowns in their last 15 league games), and rush the passer (60 sacks in Pac-12 games over the past two seasons). Their opponent on Saturday will be plenty motivated. Rich Rodriguez and the Wildcats still need an additional win to be bowl eligible for the fourth consecutive season. Having already played ten games, they only have two more shots at it. After winning the Pac-12 South last season, Arizona has experience significant regression on both sides of the ball in 2015. Their offense and defense are both below average by Pac-12 standards and their two league wins have come against league lightweights Oregon State and Colorado. So naturally, they are the pick right? Well, here are a few reasons to go against Utah this week. They pulled off a minor upset last week when they won at Washington. Utah also has a huge home game next weekend against UCLA that will go a long way toward determining the division championship. Finally, Arizona is unbeaten against the spread under Rich Rodriguez as a home underdog (4-0). Take the Wildcats to keep this one within a touchdown.
Last Week: 3-3-1
Overall: 35-33-2
Purdue +16 Northwestern
Northwestern is 18th in the latest College Football Playoff Rankings, coming off an exciting home win over Penn State, and on their way to their first bowl appearance since 2012. And now, sorry ass Purdue strolls into town as a big underdog. Northwestern should roll right? As Lee Corso might say, 'Not so fast, my friend!'. While Purdue has been horrendous under Darrell Hazell, posting a 6-27 overall record, the Boilermakers have been solid plays as a double digit road underdog. They are 6-3 against the spread in that role with five consecutive covers. Plus, Northwestern finds themselves in the dreaded sandwich game. After a tight contest with Penn State last week, the Boilermakers have Wisconsin on deck in Madison next week. Think they might be looking ahead? I do.
Georgia +1.5 Auburn
I am having a little trouble reconciling this spread with the seasonal numbers. Yes, Auburn has played better of late, beating Texas A&M after staying close with Ole Miss and taking Arkansas to overtime in their previous two games. However, despite their improved play, the Auburn offense has still only averaged 5.6 yards per play in that three-game span. Prorated to an entire season, that number would rank sixth in the SEC, hardly an elite showing. It should also be noted that Arkansas ranks dead last in the SEC in yards per play allowed and Texas A&M ranks twelfth in that category (Ole Miss is fifth, but is not quite as stout as we all thought back in early October). Of course, Georgia has had offensive difficulties of their own, scoring zero touchdowns in their two games going into Kentucky. As is usually the case for SEC teams, Kentucky is the cure for what ails you. The Bulldogs put three touchdown on the board and gained 300 yards on the ground against the Wildcats. It should also be noted the two teams that shut down Georgia prior to their clash with the Wildcats, Florida and Missouri, rank first and second in the SEC in yards per play allowed. Georgia has won seven of the last nine in this series with the two losses coming courtesy of Cam Newton and a miracle conversion. I like Georgia to win this one outright.
Ohio State -16 Illinois
I know the talking heads have repeated it ad nauseum on ESPN and FS1, but the Ohio State Buckeyes are a different team with JT Barrett under center. Barrett returns this week after his suspension for operating a vehicle while intoxicated. With Barrett replacing Cardale Jones, the Buckeye offense should click and eclipse the 30-point barrier. If the Buckeyes can move the ball and finish drives, they should be able to cover this large number as Illinois lacks the offensive firepower to generate explosive plays against Ohio State. I think the Buckeyes win this one by three touchdowns.
Utah State -1 Air Force
Barring another Boise State loss, Utah State likely blew their chance at a division title last week when they fell at New Mexico (as 20 point favorites). The Aggies significantly outplayed the Lobos everywhere, but the scoreboard. They averaged nearly a yards more per play than the Lobos, but turned the ball over on downs twice inside the New Mexico 30, lost a fumble inside the New Mexico 30, lost a fumble inside their own five, and missed a field goal. Of course, we must give New Mexico credit for capitalizing on the Aggies' woes, but that result seems to have significantly depressed the point spread in this game. Air Force has been tough at home since the start of 2014, winning eleven consecutive games at Falcon Stadium. However, the combined record of the FBS teams they have beaten at home this season is an unimpressive 9-28. Utah State is by far the best team they will have faced in the friendly confines this year. With a spread this low, the Aggies are the play.
Rutgers +9.5 Nebraska
Thanks to some dubious officiating last week, Nebraska may have saved their season. And by saved their season, I mean potentially earned themselves a nondescript bowl bid. Nebraska needs to win their final two games, on the road at Rutgers and after a week of respite, at home against Iowa to get to 6-6. I know Iowa is unbeaten, but a rested, better than their record Nebraska team playing at home feels like at least a 50/50 proposition in my mind. However, before the showdown with Iowa, Nebraska must do something they have never done - win at Rutgers. Alright, full disclosure, Nebraska has never played at Rutgers, but that doesn't make the preceding statement any less true. The Cornhuskers did beat the Knights in New York in 1920 (I'm sure your grandfather has great stories about that game), but last year's battle in Lincoln was their first meeting since Woodrow Wilson was running things. The Cornhuskers have been road favorites in two games this season, and have lost both. I would be very shocked if Rutgers pulls out the win here, but Nebraska's defense is just bad enough to allow the Knights to stay close.
LSU -7.5 Arkansas
While I am usually loathe to back Les Miles as a favorite, primarily because he does a pretty bad job of covering the spread, I think the Tigers are a good play here for several reasons. The public seems to have not only cleared the LSU bandwagon after their loss to Alabama, but spray painted it a certain hue of Crimson, set it on fire, and rolled it down the hill. How else to explain why LSU, a team that has won all their home games save versus Florida by at least 21 points, is scarcely more than a touchdown favorite against Arkansas. I know the Hogs are coming off a big road win at Ole Miss, but if you watched that game, it perfectly summed up their season. The Hogs have a powerful offense, but are held back by a defense that is the worst in the SEC (based on yards per play). Against the six Power Five teams Arkansas has faced (five SEC teams and Texas Tech), the Hogs have allowed 34.7 points per game and 6.57 yards per play. The Hogs allowed three teams (Texas Tech, Texas A&M, and Ole Miss) to average more than eight yards per play against them. Add in the revenge factor after last year's bloodletting in Fayetteville and you have all the ingredients for an LSU blowout.
Arizona +6 Utah
Like TCU, Utah had a rough start to life in a power conference. In their first three seasons in the Pac-12, the Utes won just a third of their conference games and endured two consecutive losing seasons. However, over the past year and a half, the Utes have won twice as many Pac-12 games as they have lost and are in contention for a division title. The Utes aren't great on either side of the ball, but they win the close ones (6-2 league record in one-score games since the start of last season), score in unconventional ways (seven non-offensive touchdowns in their last 15 league games), and rush the passer (60 sacks in Pac-12 games over the past two seasons). Their opponent on Saturday will be plenty motivated. Rich Rodriguez and the Wildcats still need an additional win to be bowl eligible for the fourth consecutive season. Having already played ten games, they only have two more shots at it. After winning the Pac-12 South last season, Arizona has experience significant regression on both sides of the ball in 2015. Their offense and defense are both below average by Pac-12 standards and their two league wins have come against league lightweights Oregon State and Colorado. So naturally, they are the pick right? Well, here are a few reasons to go against Utah this week. They pulled off a minor upset last week when they won at Washington. Utah also has a huge home game next weekend against UCLA that will go a long way toward determining the division championship. Finally, Arizona is unbeaten against the spread under Rich Rodriguez as a home underdog (4-0). Take the Wildcats to keep this one within a touchdown.
Sunday, November 08, 2015
Poll Position: November 8th
With the introduction of the College Football Playoff last season, polls are a superfluous endeavor. However, they still give us a rough approximation of the general consensus of teams. With ten weeks of the college football season in the books (frowny face), and with the internet being invented so that random people can bitch about trivial things they have no control over, here are my thoughts on the latest AP Poll. I apologize for not giving my thoughts on the poll last week, but I was busy and the poll was relatively unchanged from the week before.
Overrated:
Alabama (3rd) - Talk about always getting the benefit of the doubt. Yes, the Tide looked great against LSU, but there are a few not so great data points on their resume too, including the home loss to Ole Miss and the narrow home win over Tennessee. Hopefully Mississippi State can do everyone a favor and beat them this weekend. Then maybe they drop to what, sixth?
Alabama (3rd) - Talk about always getting the benefit of the doubt. Yes, the Tide looked great against LSU, but there are a few not so great data points on their resume too, including the home loss to Ole Miss and the narrow home win over Tennessee. Hopefully Mississippi State can do everyone a favor and beat them this weekend. Then maybe they drop to what, sixth?
Underrated:
Oklahoma (12th) - I think the Sooners have a real chance to win out and make a case for a playoff berth. If they do, their resume would include road wins over Tennessee, Baylor, and Oklahoma State. Of course, the bad loss to Texas remains a black mark, but those wins would trump any Ohio State had last year.
Oklahoma (12th) - I think the Sooners have a real chance to win out and make a case for a playoff berth. If they do, their resume would include road wins over Tennessee, Baylor, and Oklahoma State. Of course, the bad loss to Texas remains a black mark, but those wins would trump any Ohio State had last year.
Leaving the Poll:
Texas A&M - Can we stop hyping these guys in the preseason? After their breakthrough 2012 campaign, the Aggies are just 10-12 in conference play.
Ole Miss - Mr Freeze continues to under perform with those great athletes. His teams lost three times as a betting favorite last season and all three of their losses this year have come when they entered the game as a favorite. Think Robert Nkemdiche might be regretting switching his college choice?
Toledo - A season's worth of respect evaporates in one game. The real issue is that the Rockets received just four votes in the current poll.
Texas A&M - Can we stop hyping these guys in the preseason? After their breakthrough 2012 campaign, the Aggies are just 10-12 in conference play.
Ole Miss - Mr Freeze continues to under perform with those great athletes. His teams lost three times as a betting favorite last season and all three of their losses this year have come when they entered the game as a favorite. Think Robert Nkemdiche might be regretting switching his college choice?
Toledo - A season's worth of respect evaporates in one game. The real issue is that the Rockets received just four votes in the current poll.
Joining the Poll:
Navy (22nd) - Midshipmen are ranked for the first time since the end of the 2004 season and just the second time since 1980.
Wisconsin (23rd) - Is Wisconsin even any good? Both teams that beat them are a combined 17-1, but this doesn't feel like a vintage dominant Wisconsin team.
Northwestern (24th) - This has been a nice bounceback season for the Wildcats after consecutive losing campaigns. The offense is very limited, but with Purdue and Illinois left on the schedule, the Wildcats have an outside shot at going into the bowl with a shot at ten wins.
Navy (22nd) - Midshipmen are ranked for the first time since the end of the 2004 season and just the second time since 1980.
Wisconsin (23rd) - Is Wisconsin even any good? Both teams that beat them are a combined 17-1, but this doesn't feel like a vintage dominant Wisconsin team.
Northwestern (24th) - This has been a nice bounceback season for the Wildcats after consecutive losing campaigns. The offense is very limited, but with Purdue and Illinois left on the schedule, the Wildcats have an outside shot at going into the bowl with a shot at ten wins.
Around the Mid-Major Universe:
I am an admitted mid-major apologist, so I always enjoy it when some non-traditional powers find their way into the poll. With Toledo's loss to Northern Illinois (you may have missed it as it happened on Tuesday) and Memphis' loss to Navy, the havenots have only a single unbeaten - Houston. The Cougars host Memphis this weekend in a game that will either eliminate Memphis from the American West race or suddenly put Navy alone in first place in the division (Houston hosts Navy on the Friday after Thanksgiving). The chances of a Group of Five team sneaking into the playoff are likely kaput after Memphis' loss. While Houston will certainly rise if they beat Memphis, they really needed this game to be a matchup of undefeated teams to have even a glimmer of hope of rising into the top four. As it is, the next few weeks in the American should be entertaining. Houston and Memphis play this week, Memphis faces the likely East division champ Temple in Philly next week, and then Houston hosts Navy. The two teams left standing will then play in the inaugural American Championship Game on the first weekend in December. In the Mountain West, New Mexico did Boise State a big favor in knocking off Utah State and giving the Broncos control of the Mountain Division (don't worry, I had to look up which division they were in too). If the Broncos can win their last three or have Utah State lose another game or two, they will face San Diego State in the Mountain West Championship Game (the Aztecs haven't clinched yet, but they are pretty much a sure thing). If Boise wins and the American teams beat each other up over the next four weeks, they could conceivably be in position to grab a New Year's Six bowl bid. However, the Mountain West has been garbage this season, so I would not be a huge fan of Boise getting the invite this year. Toledo's loss opens the door for several teams in the MAC West. Western Michigan at 5-0 has a one game lead on Central Michigan, Northern Illinois, and Toledo. The Broncos can do the Rockets a favor by beating Northern Illinois on November 18th and giving the Huskies a second league loss. The Broncos and Rockets play at Toledo on the Friday after Thanksgiving. There is still a lot to be decided in the West. In the East, Bowling Green has won six straight games and has all but wrapped up the division. The Falcons will be challenged in their next two games with potential MAC Championship Game previews against Western Michigan and Toledo. The Falcons did not receive any votes in the current poll, but if they pull out both of those, to go with competitive losses to Tennessee and Memphis earlier in the year, they would be deserving of a place in the top-25 in my opinion. Both divisions in Conference USA will likely come down to the Friday after Thanksgiving (sensing a trend here?). Western Kentucky improved to 6-0 in the East while Marshall dropped an overtime game to Middle Tennessee State to fall to 5-1. I watched a little of the fourth quarter and overtime of that game and I have a message for Doc Holiday: Sprout a sack and play to win! After missing three field goals in regulation, the Herd scored a touchdown to trail by a point in the first overtime. Instead of following Bret Bielema's lead and going for two and the win, Holiday opted to kick the extra point. The game went to an additional period where the Herd...wait for it...missed a field goal. Because the football gods enjoy torturing those who make foolish decisions, the Herd survived to a third overtime where they again missed a field goal. Why would you not play to win when you know you have serious kicking issues and in all likelihood will have to kick again to win or extend the game? There was less drama in the West, where Louisiana Tech won to move to 5-1 in league play and gain a half-game on idle Southern Miss. In the Sun Belt, the dream of a ranked team is likely over. Appalachian State fell at home to Arkansas State. The loss drops the Mountaineers into a second place tie with Georgia Southern at 4-1. The Red Wolves move to 5-0 in Sun Belt play and with no Georgia Southern on the schedule (Louisiana-Monroe, New Mexico State, and Texas State are their remaining three games), they are in prime position to win the Sun Belt for the fourth time in five seasons (under their fourth different head coach). BYU beat San Jose State by a point late Friday. The win moved the Cougars to 7-2. Their final three games are against Missouri (terrible offense, but still a dangerous defensive team), Fresno State (garbage), and Utah State (decent, but hardly unbeatable). If they win out, the Cougars should enter bowl season in the polls. Finally, while their may not have been any sublime endings as their have been the past three weeks (technically The Hog and Ladder did not win the game for Arkansas) in the FBS, there was in the FCS. Follow this link and feel sorry for the Idaho State Bengals.
Ranked Matchups This Week:
Alabama (3rd) @ Mississippi State (20th) - Like I said before, Dan Mullen, please do the world a favor and beat these guys.
Oklahoma (12th) @ Baylor (4th) - Baylor has a chance to prove themselves with their new quarterback and Oklahoma has a chance to remind everybody that they are pretty damn good.
Memphis (25th) @ Houston (16th) - It's a shame Memphis will leave the poll if they lose this game.
I am an admitted mid-major apologist, so I always enjoy it when some non-traditional powers find their way into the poll. With Toledo's loss to Northern Illinois (you may have missed it as it happened on Tuesday) and Memphis' loss to Navy, the havenots have only a single unbeaten - Houston. The Cougars host Memphis this weekend in a game that will either eliminate Memphis from the American West race or suddenly put Navy alone in first place in the division (Houston hosts Navy on the Friday after Thanksgiving). The chances of a Group of Five team sneaking into the playoff are likely kaput after Memphis' loss. While Houston will certainly rise if they beat Memphis, they really needed this game to be a matchup of undefeated teams to have even a glimmer of hope of rising into the top four. As it is, the next few weeks in the American should be entertaining. Houston and Memphis play this week, Memphis faces the likely East division champ Temple in Philly next week, and then Houston hosts Navy. The two teams left standing will then play in the inaugural American Championship Game on the first weekend in December. In the Mountain West, New Mexico did Boise State a big favor in knocking off Utah State and giving the Broncos control of the Mountain Division (don't worry, I had to look up which division they were in too). If the Broncos can win their last three or have Utah State lose another game or two, they will face San Diego State in the Mountain West Championship Game (the Aztecs haven't clinched yet, but they are pretty much a sure thing). If Boise wins and the American teams beat each other up over the next four weeks, they could conceivably be in position to grab a New Year's Six bowl bid. However, the Mountain West has been garbage this season, so I would not be a huge fan of Boise getting the invite this year. Toledo's loss opens the door for several teams in the MAC West. Western Michigan at 5-0 has a one game lead on Central Michigan, Northern Illinois, and Toledo. The Broncos can do the Rockets a favor by beating Northern Illinois on November 18th and giving the Huskies a second league loss. The Broncos and Rockets play at Toledo on the Friday after Thanksgiving. There is still a lot to be decided in the West. In the East, Bowling Green has won six straight games and has all but wrapped up the division. The Falcons will be challenged in their next two games with potential MAC Championship Game previews against Western Michigan and Toledo. The Falcons did not receive any votes in the current poll, but if they pull out both of those, to go with competitive losses to Tennessee and Memphis earlier in the year, they would be deserving of a place in the top-25 in my opinion. Both divisions in Conference USA will likely come down to the Friday after Thanksgiving (sensing a trend here?). Western Kentucky improved to 6-0 in the East while Marshall dropped an overtime game to Middle Tennessee State to fall to 5-1. I watched a little of the fourth quarter and overtime of that game and I have a message for Doc Holiday: Sprout a sack and play to win! After missing three field goals in regulation, the Herd scored a touchdown to trail by a point in the first overtime. Instead of following Bret Bielema's lead and going for two and the win, Holiday opted to kick the extra point. The game went to an additional period where the Herd...wait for it...missed a field goal. Because the football gods enjoy torturing those who make foolish decisions, the Herd survived to a third overtime where they again missed a field goal. Why would you not play to win when you know you have serious kicking issues and in all likelihood will have to kick again to win or extend the game? There was less drama in the West, where Louisiana Tech won to move to 5-1 in league play and gain a half-game on idle Southern Miss. In the Sun Belt, the dream of a ranked team is likely over. Appalachian State fell at home to Arkansas State. The loss drops the Mountaineers into a second place tie with Georgia Southern at 4-1. The Red Wolves move to 5-0 in Sun Belt play and with no Georgia Southern on the schedule (Louisiana-Monroe, New Mexico State, and Texas State are their remaining three games), they are in prime position to win the Sun Belt for the fourth time in five seasons (under their fourth different head coach). BYU beat San Jose State by a point late Friday. The win moved the Cougars to 7-2. Their final three games are against Missouri (terrible offense, but still a dangerous defensive team), Fresno State (garbage), and Utah State (decent, but hardly unbeatable). If they win out, the Cougars should enter bowl season in the polls. Finally, while their may not have been any sublime endings as their have been the past three weeks (technically The Hog and Ladder did not win the game for Arkansas) in the FBS, there was in the FCS. Follow this link and feel sorry for the Idaho State Bengals.
Ranked Matchups This Week:
Alabama (3rd) @ Mississippi State (20th) - Like I said before, Dan Mullen, please do the world a favor and beat these guys.
Oklahoma (12th) @ Baylor (4th) - Baylor has a chance to prove themselves with their new quarterback and Oklahoma has a chance to remind everybody that they are pretty damn good.
Memphis (25th) @ Houston (16th) - It's a shame Memphis will leave the poll if they lose this game.
Tuesday, November 03, 2015
The Magnificent Seven: Week X
The good news is, I did not go 3-4 last week. The bad news is, I did even worse, posting a 2-4-1 week. Thankfully October is over. Let's try and pick some winners. As always, home teams in BOLD.
Last Week: 2-4-1
Overall: 32-30-1
Syracuse +13 Louisville
Since football nomad Bobby Petrino returned home (for now at least), prior to the 2014 season, the expectation was that Louisville would become an offensive juggernaut despite the loss of Teddy Bridgewater. Alas, that has not been the case. The Cardinals ranked seventh in the ACC in yards per play in conference games last season and are currently tenth in that category. The defense has been the key to Louisville's success. Last season, they ranked second in the ACC in yards per play allowed in conference games, and this year, they are third in that metric. Thanks to their offensive difficulties, the Cardinals are 0-4 against the number as a double digit home favorite. Syracuse is a competent team, with too many deficiencies to win this game outright, but they should do enough to cover this large number.
Marshall +3 Middle Tennessee State
After a disjointed start that saw them win a back-and-forth game with a bad Purdue team and lose on the road by two scores to a bad Ohio team, the Thundering Herd have quietly returned to their winning ways. They have won seven straight and are likely to win ten games for the third consecutive year. In fact, regardless of what happens here, their division title hopes will likely come down to their Black Friday showdown with Western Kentucky. As expected, Marshall suffered a drop off on offense with the loss of Rakeem Cato, but the defense is perhaps even better than it was last season. The Herd are currently second in Conference USA in terms of yards per play allowed in league games. Middle Tennessee State is just 3-5, but their losses have come to Power 5 teams (Alabama, Illinois, and Vanderbilt) and two of the stronger teams in Conference USA (Louisiana Tech and Western Kentucky). Still, its hard to see how they are favored here. Marshall is the better team, and despite having to go on the road, should be able to eke out a win here.
Florida State +12.5 Clemson
If Florida State had not been buzzed two weeks against Georgia Tech, this matchup would be the third featuring unbeaten teams this weekend. As it stands, the winner of this game, particularly if it is Clemson, will have pretty much locked up the Atlantic Division of the ACC. Clemson enters this game as the newly christened number one in the initial College Football Playoff rankings. Barring an inexplicable turn of events that would have to involve Dabo Swinney being caught on tape offering a recruit hookers and cocaine, Clemson will be in the College Football Playoff if they win out. Clemson and Florida State have played each season since the Seminoles joined the ACC in 1992. The Seminoles owned the series (and the conference) early on, winning the first eleven contests. However, beginning in 2003, the series has been much more competitive, with the teams splitting six contests. It should be noted, most of those wins by Clemson came when Bobby Bowden was 'coaching' the team. Since Jimbo Fisher arrived, the Seminoles have won four of five. Speaking of Fisher, this marks the first time under his guidance that the Seminoles are double digit underdogs. I'll leave you with this. Jimbo Fisher has lost twelve games in his tenure at Florida State. In only two, at Oklahoma in his first season and against Oregon in the Rose Bowl last year, was the margin of defeat enough for the opposing team to cover a number this large.
Arkansas +11 Ole Miss
What happened to the Ole Miss team that was straight crushing kids in September? The Rebels opened the season looking nigh unstoppable, scoring over 70 points in consecutive games against Tennessee-Martin (runteldat!) and Fresno State and then dropping 43 on Alabama in Tuscaloosa. In those three games, the Rebels averaged 64 points per game. In the six games since, the Rebels have averaged just over 27 points per game. I know the schedule has stiffened, but their 52 point outburst against New Mexico State is included in that data set. It should also be noted the Rebels scored just 24 points against a Memphis team that allowed 41 points to Bowling Green, 46 to Cincinnati, and 42 points to Tulsa. Arkansas is a competent team and has already won a road game against a solid Tennessee squad. This line should be closer to a touchdown. Take the Hogs to cover here.
Old Dominion +12 Texas-San Antonio
So, Old Dominion has already burned me twice this season as a double-digit underdog. Yet, I continue picking the Monarchs undeterred by their performance and against my better judgement. Old Dominion is not a good football team, having beaten Eastern Michigan, Norfolk State, and Charlotte by a combined 21 points. However, Texas-San Antonio is not exactly Nebraska circa 1995. The Roadrunners have just a single win on the year, shafting the mighty UTEP Miners a month ago. The Roadrunners do have a trio of narrow defeats to Colorado State, Louisiana Tech, and North Texas, but should not be favored by double-digits against any team. The Roadrunners have big time issues on offense, ranking 12th in Conference USA in yards per play (conference games only). Take the Monarchs to keep this one close and potentially leave the Alamodome with a win.
LSU +6.5 Alabama
Ole Miss is still hanging around near the top of the SEC West standings, but you can trust the Rebels at your own peril. With the Rebels lurking, this game will serve as an eliminator if Alabama loses. The Tigers will have a narrow margin for error should they fall, but the division title will remain a possibility. The Tide have won the last four in this series (three in the regular season) which is their best stretch since they won four in a row from 1989 through 1992. There is reason to believe Alabama is overvalued going into this game. For starters, they are 0-5 against the number as a home favorite this season, including losing outright to Ole Miss. What you may not have noticed is that despite the wins, Alabama is tenth in the SEC in yards per play (conference games only). For perspective, that ranks below Kentucky! Hmmm....Maybe Lane Kiffin ain't so hot when he isn't drawing up plays for Amari Cooper. The Tide have been their usual dominant selves on defense ranking fourth in the SEC in yards per play allowed. Meanwhile, behind the powerful running of Leonard Fournette and the surprisingly efficient passing of Brandon Harris, the Tigers rank first in the SEC in yards per play. This line seems like it is about a field goal too high. Take the Tigers to keep this one close and potentially leave Tuscaloosa with the inside track to the SEC West title.
Cal +6 Oregon
One of the tenets I usually follow when picking games is never back a favorite if they are coming off an upset win. Of course, last week I ignored that rule by taking Georgia Tech, and like a horror movie character going outside to 'check on that noise', I caught a Jason Voorhees' machete right in the face. Unlike characters in horror movies, I hope to learn from my mistakes this week. Oregon is coming off an upset win in a bonkers game at Arizona State that saw the Ducks have to sweat out a win despite averaging over seven yards per play. The culprit, obviously, was the Duck defense which allowed over 30 points for the fifth time in eight games. Last season, the Ducks allowed 354 points in 15 games. This season, in just eight games, the Ducks have allowed 307 points. Suffice it to say, this game should be entertaining. Cal still needs one additional win to become bowl eligible for the first time since 2011, and even with a loss in this game will probably get there with a win next week against Oregon State. But, lets not get ahead of ourselves, as the Bears could end their three-game losing skid in Autzen Stadium. Oregon has beaten three teams by more than six points this season: Eastern Washington, Georgia State, and Colorado. Cal will not be added to that list.
Last Week: 2-4-1
Overall: 32-30-1
Syracuse +13 Louisville
Since football nomad Bobby Petrino returned home (for now at least), prior to the 2014 season, the expectation was that Louisville would become an offensive juggernaut despite the loss of Teddy Bridgewater. Alas, that has not been the case. The Cardinals ranked seventh in the ACC in yards per play in conference games last season and are currently tenth in that category. The defense has been the key to Louisville's success. Last season, they ranked second in the ACC in yards per play allowed in conference games, and this year, they are third in that metric. Thanks to their offensive difficulties, the Cardinals are 0-4 against the number as a double digit home favorite. Syracuse is a competent team, with too many deficiencies to win this game outright, but they should do enough to cover this large number.
Marshall +3 Middle Tennessee State
After a disjointed start that saw them win a back-and-forth game with a bad Purdue team and lose on the road by two scores to a bad Ohio team, the Thundering Herd have quietly returned to their winning ways. They have won seven straight and are likely to win ten games for the third consecutive year. In fact, regardless of what happens here, their division title hopes will likely come down to their Black Friday showdown with Western Kentucky. As expected, Marshall suffered a drop off on offense with the loss of Rakeem Cato, but the defense is perhaps even better than it was last season. The Herd are currently second in Conference USA in terms of yards per play allowed in league games. Middle Tennessee State is just 3-5, but their losses have come to Power 5 teams (Alabama, Illinois, and Vanderbilt) and two of the stronger teams in Conference USA (Louisiana Tech and Western Kentucky). Still, its hard to see how they are favored here. Marshall is the better team, and despite having to go on the road, should be able to eke out a win here.
Florida State +12.5 Clemson
If Florida State had not been buzzed two weeks against Georgia Tech, this matchup would be the third featuring unbeaten teams this weekend. As it stands, the winner of this game, particularly if it is Clemson, will have pretty much locked up the Atlantic Division of the ACC. Clemson enters this game as the newly christened number one in the initial College Football Playoff rankings. Barring an inexplicable turn of events that would have to involve Dabo Swinney being caught on tape offering a recruit hookers and cocaine, Clemson will be in the College Football Playoff if they win out. Clemson and Florida State have played each season since the Seminoles joined the ACC in 1992. The Seminoles owned the series (and the conference) early on, winning the first eleven contests. However, beginning in 2003, the series has been much more competitive, with the teams splitting six contests. It should be noted, most of those wins by Clemson came when Bobby Bowden was 'coaching' the team. Since Jimbo Fisher arrived, the Seminoles have won four of five. Speaking of Fisher, this marks the first time under his guidance that the Seminoles are double digit underdogs. I'll leave you with this. Jimbo Fisher has lost twelve games in his tenure at Florida State. In only two, at Oklahoma in his first season and against Oregon in the Rose Bowl last year, was the margin of defeat enough for the opposing team to cover a number this large.
Arkansas +11 Ole Miss
What happened to the Ole Miss team that was straight crushing kids in September? The Rebels opened the season looking nigh unstoppable, scoring over 70 points in consecutive games against Tennessee-Martin (runteldat!) and Fresno State and then dropping 43 on Alabama in Tuscaloosa. In those three games, the Rebels averaged 64 points per game. In the six games since, the Rebels have averaged just over 27 points per game. I know the schedule has stiffened, but their 52 point outburst against New Mexico State is included in that data set. It should also be noted the Rebels scored just 24 points against a Memphis team that allowed 41 points to Bowling Green, 46 to Cincinnati, and 42 points to Tulsa. Arkansas is a competent team and has already won a road game against a solid Tennessee squad. This line should be closer to a touchdown. Take the Hogs to cover here.
Old Dominion +12 Texas-San Antonio
So, Old Dominion has already burned me twice this season as a double-digit underdog. Yet, I continue picking the Monarchs undeterred by their performance and against my better judgement. Old Dominion is not a good football team, having beaten Eastern Michigan, Norfolk State, and Charlotte by a combined 21 points. However, Texas-San Antonio is not exactly Nebraska circa 1995. The Roadrunners have just a single win on the year, shafting the mighty UTEP Miners a month ago. The Roadrunners do have a trio of narrow defeats to Colorado State, Louisiana Tech, and North Texas, but should not be favored by double-digits against any team. The Roadrunners have big time issues on offense, ranking 12th in Conference USA in yards per play (conference games only). Take the Monarchs to keep this one close and potentially leave the Alamodome with a win.
LSU +6.5 Alabama
Ole Miss is still hanging around near the top of the SEC West standings, but you can trust the Rebels at your own peril. With the Rebels lurking, this game will serve as an eliminator if Alabama loses. The Tigers will have a narrow margin for error should they fall, but the division title will remain a possibility. The Tide have won the last four in this series (three in the regular season) which is their best stretch since they won four in a row from 1989 through 1992. There is reason to believe Alabama is overvalued going into this game. For starters, they are 0-5 against the number as a home favorite this season, including losing outright to Ole Miss. What you may not have noticed is that despite the wins, Alabama is tenth in the SEC in yards per play (conference games only). For perspective, that ranks below Kentucky! Hmmm....Maybe Lane Kiffin ain't so hot when he isn't drawing up plays for Amari Cooper. The Tide have been their usual dominant selves on defense ranking fourth in the SEC in yards per play allowed. Meanwhile, behind the powerful running of Leonard Fournette and the surprisingly efficient passing of Brandon Harris, the Tigers rank first in the SEC in yards per play. This line seems like it is about a field goal too high. Take the Tigers to keep this one close and potentially leave Tuscaloosa with the inside track to the SEC West title.
Cal +6 Oregon
One of the tenets I usually follow when picking games is never back a favorite if they are coming off an upset win. Of course, last week I ignored that rule by taking Georgia Tech, and like a horror movie character going outside to 'check on that noise', I caught a Jason Voorhees' machete right in the face. Unlike characters in horror movies, I hope to learn from my mistakes this week. Oregon is coming off an upset win in a bonkers game at Arizona State that saw the Ducks have to sweat out a win despite averaging over seven yards per play. The culprit, obviously, was the Duck defense which allowed over 30 points for the fifth time in eight games. Last season, the Ducks allowed 354 points in 15 games. This season, in just eight games, the Ducks have allowed 307 points. Suffice it to say, this game should be entertaining. Cal still needs one additional win to become bowl eligible for the first time since 2011, and even with a loss in this game will probably get there with a win next week against Oregon State. But, lets not get ahead of ourselves, as the Bears could end their three-game losing skid in Autzen Stadium. Oregon has beaten three teams by more than six points this season: Eastern Washington, Georgia State, and Colorado. Cal will not be added to that list.
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