MAC SDPI

Only a pair of leagues left to review. Even though summer has just begun, the long and perilous offseason is winding down. This week, we'll examine the Big 10's little brother, the MAC.

This first paragraph will explain how SDPI is calculated. So if you want the meat of this article skip on down. In the 2009 MAC regular season, conference play only, championship games excluded, the average MAC team gained and allowed 2955.615 yards. The standard deviation for yards gained (offense) was 458.77 yards. The standard deviation for yards allowed (defense) was 263.35 yards. Bowling Green gained 3313 yards and allowed 3193 yards. Their offensive SDPI was 0.78 = [(3313-2955.615)/458.77]. Their defensive SDPI was -0.90 = [(2955.615-3193)/263.35]. Their total SDPI was -0.12. This number ranked 7th in the MAC.

To refresh your memory, here are the 2009 MAC standings.

Now here are the 2009 MAC SDPI standings. The standings are sorted by division by total SDPI with ranking for each category (out of 13 teams) in parentheses.Out West, the SDPI standings are aligned pretty well with the actual standings. Central Michigan was head and shoulders above the rest of the MAC statistically, and they rolled to an undefeated league record. However, over in the East, we see some interesting results. 2008 champ, Buffalo, finished with a losing league record, but rates out as the 3rd best team in the league and best team in the East. Further down the standings, Miami of Ohio finished last in the East yet rates as the 2nd best team in the division and 4th best in the whole league! Furthermore, at the top of the East, we have a pair of teams (Ohio and Temple) that finished a combined 14-2 against the MAC, yet both were only middling according to SDPI. How can this be? Ohio and Temple posted the top-2 in-conference turnover margins last season (+11 for Temple and +10 for Ohio). Buffalo was -2 and Miami was awful at -15 (last in the league). Ohio was unbeaten in one-score league games (4-0) as was Temple (2-0). Meanwhile, Buffalo was 2-4 in such games and Miami was 1-2. Ohio and Temple also scored a lot of their points via special teams and defense. Ohio scored 5 non-offensive touchdowns in their 8 MAC games, with 3 coming via punt returner LaVon Brazill. Temple also scored 5 non-offensive touchdowns in 8 MAC games with Delano Green scoring twice on punt returns and James Nixon scoring twice on kickoff returns. Buffalo and Miami scored only once between them in non-traditional ways, with Miami returning an interception for a touchdown in their win versus Toledo.

Conference Superlatives

Best Offense: Central Michigan 1.88
It was a fitting swan song for the poor man's Tim Tebow, Dan LeFevour. LeFevour threw for 28 touchdowns and ran for 15 more in his senior campaign. Under his guidance, the Chippewas were never held below 406 yards against MAC opponents, until their closer than expected win in the MAC Championship Game versus Ohio.

Worst Offense: Eastern Michigan -1.72
The Eagles best performance was a 364-yard day against Western Michigan. Had they averaged that many yards per conference game, that figure would have only ranked 7th in the MAC!

Best Defense: Northern Illinois 1.98
Until their regular season finale with Central Michigan (allowed 512 yards), the Huskies held every MAC opponent to 387 yards or fewer. They held 5 of their 8 MAC foes under 300 yards.

Worst Defense: Eastern Michigan -1.82
Befitting a winless outfit, the Eagles had both the league's worst offense and its worst defense. Every team gained at least 310 yards against the Eagles, and 5 teams topped 400 yards.

What's in Store for Next Year?
East Division:
Last year's co-champion Temple Owls return the MAC's leading rusher in sophomore Bernard Pierce, so they will likely get the media's nod as the preseason favorite. However, the East has been very unpredictable the past few seasons. Off a 4-7 (3-5 conference) season in 2005, Ohio won the East in 2006. Off a 2-10 (2-6 conference) season in 2006, Miami won the East in 2007. Off a 5-7 (5-3 conference) season in 2007, but just a year removed from a 2-10 (1-7 conference) record in 2006, Buffalo won the East in 2008. Off a 4-8 (3-5 conference) season in 2008, Ohio won the East in 2009. Cinderella will likely be in contention once again in 2010. Look out for Buffalo and Miami, a pair of teams highlighted earlier who were better than their actual records last season. Buffalo has a new coach and quarterback, but returns 8 starters from the league's 4th ranked defense. Miami has 19 starters back, and despite a brutal non-conference slate (Florida, Missouri, and Cincinnati) could play in the MAC Championship Game, and finish with a losing record (as they did in 2007). With the exception of Akron and Bowling Green, the MAC East looks wide open heading into 2010.

West Division:
Central Michigan has won 3 of the least 4 MAC West titles, but without record-setting quarterback Dan LeFevour and with a new coach, the Chippewas look poised to fall back to the pack. Western Michigan and Toledo also lose experienced senior quarterbacks in Tim Hiller and Aaron Opelt respectively. So who is the favorite heading into 2010? A good bet to step up and take the West are the Huskies from Northern Illinois. Jerry Kill has continued a fine winning tradition in DeKalb. Under Kill and his predecessor Joe Novak, the Huskies have finished with a winning overall record 8 times in the past 10 years. The Huskies bring back 8 starters from the league's stingiest defense and also return their starting quarterback and running back.

Conference USA Recap: 2005-2009

In our half-decade retrospective, we now come to a league that spans from deep in the heart of Texas to the eastern part of North Carolina. While the league has yet to produce a BCS-caliber team like the Mountain West and WAC, Conference USA has seen its share of press clippings in the last few years. Who can forget East Carolina's tour de force upsets of Virginia Tech and West Virginia to begin the 2008 season or the similar path trekked by Houston at the beginning of 2009 when they knocked off Big 12 neighbors Oklahoma State and Texas Tech?

First off, here are the combined Conference USA standings from 2005-2009.The league has been dominated for the last 5 years by a handful of teams. The top-5 teams in the conference in that time span have all won more than 60% of their league games. Its a close race at the top with Houston narrowly edging out East Carolina and Tulsa as the kings of the conference. Houston, East Carolina, and Southern Miss are the only schools to not post a losing season in league play since 2005. Tulane is the only school to not finish with at least a .500 mark in conference play at least once. The Green Wave had their best season in 2007 when they went 3-5. SMU is the only team to have gone winless in league play, having accomplished that 'feat' in back-to-back seasons (2007 and 2008). Amazingly, even with the combined 0-16 record in those seasons, they still rank ahead of 2 teams in wins over the past 5 years. No team has gone undefeated in the league since the divisional format was introduced in 2005. However, at least one team has gone 7-1 in each season. UCF went 7-1 twice, in both 2005 and 2007. East Carolina went 7-1 in 2009, Tulsa and Rice both finished 7-1 in 2008, and Houston went 7-1 in 2006.

Now here is the standard deviation of each team's conference record (in wins). Teams are ranked from the most inconsistent to the least.Most conferences have one or two teams that have been remarkably inconsistent since 2005. Conference USA has 4. SMU has seen both the extremes (0-8 record twice and 6-2 this past season) and the middle (4-4 twice). Rice has gone 7-1 and 6-2 as well as 1-7 and 2-6. Memphis has pinballed from 5-3 to 1-7 to 6-2 to 4-4 to 1-7. UCF has won a pair of division titles and also finished in the basement. On the other end of the spectrum, Marshall has won either 3 or 4 conference games each season since 2005.

Now here is each team's point differential in conference play since 2005.The league's best team has also been its most dominant. After narrowly edging Tulsa in the standings, Houston also narrowly edges the Golden Hurricane in point differential. Surprisingly, Southern Miss is very close to the western powers in terms of per game dominance. However, the Golden Eagles have struggled to win one-score games, going 7-11 in such games since 2005. Conversely, East Carolina is 13-5 in such games, enabling them to finish near the top of the standings despite a weaker point differential. Tulane has been the league's most dominated team by a healthy margin. Their point differential of -576 is more than that of the 2nd (UAB) and 3rd (Rice) worst teams combined (-443).

With this being the end of the decade, here's the tally of conference and division titles.Ah Louisville, remember them? The Cardinals won a pair of Conference USA titles under John L Smith in 2000 and 2001, then won another in 2004 under Bobby Petrino in their final season before heading to the Big East. Another former member, Cincinnati, also won the title in 2002. Since the divisional format began in 2005, the West has been represented each season by Houston or Tulsa in the CUSA Championship Game. However, after taking the first 2 contests (Tulsa in 2005 and Houston in 2006), the West has dropped 3 straight. East Carolina is the current member with the most titles in the 2000's, having brought home consecutive wins to close the decade.

And finally, what was the biggest takeaway from the 00 decade in Conference USA?
The metamorphosis of the Rice offense. Ken Hatfield came to Rice in 1994 after being canned by Clemson. Hatfield implemented an option-style, run-centric offense. Hatfield stayed at Rice until his ouster following the 2005 season. I don't have passing numbers for his tenure in the 1990's but from 2000-2005 (6 seasons), Hatfield's Rice teams threw a combined 43 touchdowns, with 11 being the most in any single season. Over those 6 seasons, the Owls averaged 24.6 points per game, topping out at 28.6 points per game in 2003. Hatfield was replaced by Todd Graham in 2006 and the offense shifted dramatically. Behind the passing of quarterback Chase Clement, the hands of receiver Jarett Dillard, and the toughness of tight end hybrid James Casey the Owls went on quite a run from 2006-2008. Over those 3 seasons, Rice threw 106 touchdown passes as a team and averaged 33.2 points per game. They also did it under 2 different coaches. After leading Rice to a bowl game in 2006, Graham bolted for division rival Tulsa. His replacement David Bailiff didn't change offensive schemes and the Owls continued to produce. Switching from a run-heavy option offense to one that relies on the pass does not usually produce such extreme results so quickly. Clement, Dillard, and Casey matriculated after the 2008 season and there were some growing pains in 2009. The 2009 Owls threw only 14 touchdowns and averaged just over 18 points per game, but did improve as the season wore on, averaging 25 points per game over the final third of the season after managing only 14.9 per game over the first two-thirds. With 9 offensive starters back in 2010, expect the Owls to more closely resemble the offense that took the field near the end of the 2009 campaign.

Conference USA SDPI

Slowly, but surely we are getting there. The regular season is only a little more than 12 weeks away. And we only have 3 more conferences to review. We'll start the home stretch with Conference USA.

This first paragraph will explain how SDPI is calculated. So if you want the meat of this article skip on down. In the 2009 Conference USA regular season, conference play only, championship games excluded, the average Conference USA team gained and allowed 3334.75 yards. The standard deviation for yards gained (offense) was 626.06 yards. The standard deviation for yards allowed (defense) was 319.87 yards. Marshall gained 3070 yards and allowed 3088 yards. Their offensive SDPI was -0.42 = [(3070-3334.75)/626.06]. Their defensive SDPI was 0.77 = [(3334.75-3088)/319.87]. Their total SDPI was 0.35. This number ranked 5th in Conference USA.

To refresh your memory, here are the 2009 Conference USA standings.

Now here are the 2009 Conference USA SDPI standings. The standings are sorted by division by total SDPI with ranking for each category (out of 12 teams) in parentheses.There's not a great deal of disconnect between the actual and SDPI standings. However, UTEP and SMU did perform a little differently than their respective conference records would indicate. UTEP only managed 3 conference wins thanks to a poor record in one-score games (1-4 in such games). However, the Miners have only themselves to blame for being in those games in the first place. The Miners crushed conference bowl teams Houston and Marshall by a combined 48 points, but let the poorer teams on the schedule (league doormats UAB, Tulane, and Rice) hang around. The Miners lost those 3 games by a combined 13 points. Meanwhile SMU was able to tie for the Conference USA West title because they won nearly all their one-score games (5-1 in such games). In their 8 league games, SMU outscored their opponents by a total of 9 points, which is much more indicative of a team that wins about half of its conference games.

Conference Superlatives

Best Offense: Houston 2.36
The Cougars were head and shoulders above the rest of the league when it came to moving the football. They gained over 600 yards in 5 of their 8 conference games. In their worst offensive performance, they gained 394 yards. The worst offense in the league, Rice, gained 391 yards in their best offensive showcase.

Worst Offense: Rice -1.39
Rice was held below 300 yards in half their conference games, and averaged roughly half the yardage (308) in conference play compared to the league's top offense (602) in Houston.

Best Defense: UCF 2.03
The Knights won 6 straight conference games after beginning the year 0-2, but they had an interesting defensive split in their final 3 contests. They held Houston in check (relatively) in allowing 423 yards. The following week, they made Tulane look like a high school, permitting only 50 yards to the Green Wave. They then closed the regular season by allowing a season high (versus conference opponents) 527 yards to UAB.

Worst Defense: Memphis -1.25
The Tigers suffered through an awful season, and their defense was the main reason. Only 2 conference opponents failed to top 400 yards against them.

What's in Store for Next Year?
East Division:
The top of the East Division should be very competitive in 2010. Two-time reigning champ East Carolina will have a hard time holding onto their title. Not only do they lose coach Skip Holtz, but also 8 of their top-11 tacklers, their starting running back, and starting quarterback. Head coach Ruffin McNeill plans to bring at least an abridged version of the offense he learned under Mike Leach at Texas Tech, but it will probably take at least a year before all cylinders are firing in line. With the Pirates likely in rebuilding mode, the champion of the East will likely be either UCF, Southern Miss, or Marshall. UCF boasted the league's best defense last season and returns most of the key contributors from that defense with one large exception. Defensive end Jarvis Geathers, who finished 2nd in Conference USA in sacks, is gone, but defensive end Bruce Miller, who led Conference USA in sacks, is back. The Knights do have to replace their starting quarterback, but could still see an uptick on offense as they return 4 starters on the offensive line and an 1100-yard rusher. Southern Miss suffered through a disappointing 7-6 season in 2009, and even with the loss of the school's all-time leading rusher, Damion Fletcher, could see some improvement in 2010. Wide receiver DeAndre Brown will be 21 months removed from a gruesome broken tibia that he suffered in the 2008 New Orleans Bowl. After catching 67 balls for 1117 yards as a freshman in 2008, his numbers slipped to 47 catches for 785 yards last season. Expect a return to 2008 form in 2010. If you're looking for a surprise champion in the East, keep an eye on Marshall. The Thundering Herd qualified for their first bowl game since 2004 last year, but that was not enough to save Mark Snyder's job. New coach John 'Doc' Holliday is the new head man, having come from in-state big brother West Virginia. The 2010 version of the Herd will have a senior quarterback under center (Brian Anderson) and the best freshman receiver from the 2009 season (Antavious Wilson). The loss of running back Darius Marshall, who had a year of eligibility remaining, will hurt, but the improvements in the passing game could offset the loss of Marshall. On the other side of the ball, the Herd do lose some key contributors, but they return their best defender in linebacker Mario Harvey who led the team in both tackles and sacks in 2009. After those 4 teams, UAB and Memphis will likely be bringing up the rear in the East. UAB had a real chance at bowl eligibility last season, but a rough non-conference slate, including BCS-conference members Texas A&M and Ole Miss, as well as Sun Belt champ Troy, gave them no margin for error within the league. The Blazers went 4-4, but unfortunately dropped their season finale against UCF and finished a win shy of bowl eligibility. UAB boasted the best offense in the East last season, but that certainly won't be the case in 2010 as the Blazers lose their do-everything quarterback Joe Webb. Webb not only threw for over 2200 yards and 21 touchdowns last season, but he was also the team's leading rusher with over 1400 yards. Needless to say, he won't be easily replaced. Memphis hit rock bottom in 2009, notching just one league win and fielding the league's worst defense. Head coach Tommy West was let go and his replacement Larry Porter will likely fair a little better in his initial season (maybe 2 or 3 league wins), but don't expect any miracles.

West Division:
Houston will once again be a prime contender in the West Division thanks to their high-powered offense. Quarterback Case Keenum, who has thrown 88 touchdowns over the past 2 seasons, returns along with 3, thats right, 3 1000-yard receivers. If the defense can just be a little better (only Memphis was worse last season) Houston will be the prohibitive favorite in the West. Speaking of great offenses, UTEP should again have one of the best in Conference USA in 2010. Quarterback Trevor Vitttoe, who has thrown 75 touchdown passes in his career, will look to get the Miners back to the postseason for the first time since 2005. Vittatoe will have help in his quest in the form of running back Donald Buckram who gained 1594 yards on the ground in 2009. The defense loses a lot of starters, roughly 7 depending on your accounting practices, but the players who were there didn't exactly set a new standard for greatness last season (9th in the league in defense). SMU would also seem to be a legitimate threat to bring home the crown too. While the Mustangs were not quite as good as their sterling league record, 2010 will mark the 3rd year of the June Jones regime, which means his system will be almost fully integreated in Dallas. After winning 21 combined games in 2007 and 2008, Tulsa took a surprising step back in 2009. The Golden Hurricane posted their first losing record since 2004. The offense was still solid, finishing 4th in the league, but the defense regressed and Tulsa suffered through a 6-game losing streak where they allowed an average of 36.2 points and 3 consecutive times allowed at least 44. If the defense can improve, Tulsa will make the West a 4-team race. You can pencil Rice in near the bottom of the West standings in 2010. After posting one of the league's best offenses in 2008, en route to a 10-win season, the Owls lost their all-time leading passer (Chase Clement), receiver (Jarett Dillard), and Thor (James Casey), and saw their offense become the worst in the league. The defense stayed bad, and the Owls were statistically the worst team in Conference USA. The offense should be a little better in 2010, but it will need to reach the heights of 2008 to compensate for the lack of defense, and thats extremely unlikely. But hey, at least Rice isn't Tulane. The Green Wave went the entire decade of the aughts without posting a winning record within the conference. Their best finish was 4-4 in 2002. That was also the only time they broke even. There a little to like about Bob Toledo's team in 2010 including sophomore quarterback Ryan Griffin who played well at the end of last season (8 touchdown passes and 3 interceptions in the final 4 games) and a defense that is unlikely to replicate their futility at forcing turnovers last season (5 in conference play and just 10 overall--last in the nation). Still, the West is jampacked with good to solid teams, so improvement will likely only get to Tulane to 3 league wins tops.

Mountain West Recap: 2005-2009

Two weeks ago we looked at the WAC, a league that has been dominated for the past 5 years by one team. Now we turn our attention to the Mountain West, a league that has been dominated by a mid-major triumvirate.

First off, here are the combined Mountain West standings from 2005-2009.As you can see, BYU, TCU, and Utah have dominated the league over the last half-decade. In fact, the only other team with a winning record in that span is Air Force. BYU is the only Mountain West school that has posted a winning conference record each season since 2005. Utah and TCU both suffered through 4-4 seasons, with Utah's coming in 2005 and TCU's in 2007. Outside of records posted by BYU, TCU, Utah, and Air Force, there have only been 3 other winning conference seasons. Colorado State went 5-3 in 2005, Wyoming went 5-3 in 2006, and New Mexico went 5-3 in 2007. Against all conference foes not named TCU and Utah, BYU is 29-1 since 2005. Against conference foes not named BYU and Utah, TCU is 28-2 since 2005. Against conference foes not named BYU and TCU, Utah is 23-7 since 2005. I'll do the math for you. Since 2005, BYU, TCU, and Utah are a combined 80-10 against the rest of the conference.

Now here is the standard deviation of each team's conference record (in wins). Teams are ranked from the most inconsistent to the least.Colorado State has been the league's most inconsistent team over the past 5 seasons. They finished the 2005 season with a 5-3 record, but immediately fell on hard times in 2006, dipping to 1-7. They stayed near the bottom in 2007, finishing 2-6, before rebounding to post a 4-4 record in 2008. They then plummeted to the bottom of the standings once again in 2009, finishing 0-8. This marks the lone winless league record since 2005. UNLV has been the league's most consistent team, winning just a single conference games for 3 straight seasons (2005-2007) before winning 2 in 2008 and 3 in 2009.

Now here is each team's point differential in conference play since 2005.BYU owns the league's best record, but TCU has been the most dominant team in the Mountain West over the past 5 seasons. The main reason BYU has the better record is thanks to their sterling record in close games. Both BYU and TCU have played 11 one-score league games since 2005. TCU owns a decent 6-5 record in those games, but BYU is 9-2 in such contests, having not lost a close game to a conference foe since 2005. On the other end of the spectrum are the Rebels from UNLV. As noted earlier, UNLV has lost the most conference games of any Mountain West team since 2005 (32). Even worse, more than 70% of their losses (23) have been by double-digits.

With this being the end of the decade, here's the tally of conference titles.I bet you forgot about Colorado State. The Rams won 2 titles, early in the decade (2000 and 2002), continuing their solid run from the mid-90's. In the 9-season span from 1994-2002, the Rams won or shared 6 conference titles in the WAC and Mountain West. However, since 2002, the league title has been won by either BYU, TCU, or Utah. Over the past 6 seasons, the Mountain West champion has emerged with an unblemished league record (Utah in 2004, TCU in 2005, BYU in 2006 and 2007, Utah in 2008, and TCU in 2009).

And finally, what was the biggest takeway from the 00 decade in the Mountain West?
I would have to say its the rise, at least at the top, to almost a BCS-caliber league. Case in point, in the past 6 seasons, at least one Mountain West conference team has finished in the top-20 of the final BCS standings. On 3 separate occasions (2004, 2008, and 2009) the league has placed a team in the final BCS top-10. And twice more (2008 and 2009), the league has placed 2 teams in the final BCS top-15.

Mountain West SDPI

7 down, 4 to go. This week, we'll review what happened in the Mountain West in 2009, the second year in a row the mid-major league placed a team in a BCS Bowl.

This first paragraph will explain how SDPI is calculated. So if you want the meat of this article skip on down. In the 2009 Mountain West regular season, conference play only, the average Mountain West team gained and allowed 2901.67 yards. The standard deviation for yards gained (offense) was 502.05 yards. The standard deviation for yards allowed (defense) was 541.12 yards. BYU gained 3455 yards and allowed 2712 yards. Their offensive SDPI was 1.10 = [(3455-2901.67)/502.05]. Their defensive SDPI was 0.35 = [(2901.67-2712)/541.12)]. Their total SDPI was 1.45. This number ranked 2nd in the Mountain West.

To refresh your memory, here are the 2009 Mountain West standings.
Now here are the 2009 Mountain West SDPI standings. The standings are sorted by total SDPI with ranking for each category (out of 9 teams) in parentheses.At the top of the league, the actual standings line up pretty well with the SDPI standings. When we get to the middle though, things are a little scattered. Wyoming, which was statistically one of the worst teams in the league (just a shade better than UNLV), broke even in conference play and actually won a bowl game. Similarly, Colorado State and San Diego State were statistically the class of the conference outside of the top-4, but both combined to win only 2 league games, with the Rams actually going winless in league play. The culprit as usual, was close games and turnovers. Wyoming was 3-0 in one-score conference games, besting UNLV, San Diego State, and Colorado State by a combined 7 points. The Cowboys were also pretty successful in the turnover department, going +4 in conference play, good for 3rd in the league. Meanwhile, Colorado State lost all 3 of their one-score league games, falling to Utah, New Mexico, and Wyoming by a combined 10 points. The Rams also finished -6 in turnover margin, tied for 2nd to last in the league. San Diego State did not fare quite as poorly in close games, going 1-2 against their Mountain West foes, but they had by far the worst turnover margin in conference play finishing at -12.

Conference Superlatives

Best Offense: TCU 2.03
The Horned Frogs seemed to get better as the year progressed. After averaging 435 yards and 34 points in their first 3 conference games, TCU cranked those numbers up to 523 yards and 49 points over their final 5. They also hit the infamous 'double nickel' twice in wins over San Diego State and Utah.

Worst Offense: Wyoming -1.35
The Cowboys averaged under 300 yards per game in league play (278) and were held below 250 yards 5 times. Not surprisingly, the Cowboys went 1-4 in those games.

Best Defense: TCU 1.96
In an amazing feat, no Mountain West team topped the 300-yard mark against TCU. BYU came the closest, gaining 298 yards in their 31-point home loss to the Frogs.

Worst Defense: UNLV -1.26
Save for a stellar showing against New Mexico, when they allowed a season low (vs IA teams) 287 yards, other Mountain West teams had an easy go of it. Their other 7 conference opponents averaged 471 yards against the Rebel defense.

What's in Store for Next Year?
The battle at the top in 2010 should look much the same as it has for the past several seasons. TCU, BYU, and Utah should battle for league supremacy. TCU and Utah have the edge over the Cougars who are losing both their starting quarterback, who has exhausted his eligibility, and their starting running back, who violated the school's honor code. Air Force is once again poised to be the 4th bets team in the Mountain West, though its not inconceivable for them to overtake BYU if they catch some breaks. With 4 bowl slots likely spoken for, which team is most likely to rise from the mire and qualify for the postseason? I'd say take your pick from San Diego State, Colorado State, and if you're feeling very lucky UNLV. San Diego State and Colorado State were much stronger than their wins and losses showed last season. San Diego State brings back more talent on offense, but the Rams bring back more on defense. While UNLV was statistically the worst team in the league last season, they made one of the better coaching hires in the offseason by luring Bobby Hauck away from Montana. While at Montana, Hauck led the Grizzlies to the playoffs in each of his 7 seasons, thrice taking them to the I-AA Championship Game. Of course, the last successful Montana coach to come to the Mountain West (Hauck's predecessor as Grizzlies coach, Joe Glenn) didn't exactly work out. Elsewhere, Wyoming seems poised to take a dip after achieving far more than their middling peripherals would indicate. And finally, at the bottom of the league, we have Los Lobos. It wasn't that long ago that New Mexico was the clear cut 4th fiddle in the league, finishing bowl eligible for 7 consecutive seasons from 2001-2007 under Rocky Long. However, the Lobos suffered through some poor luck and finished 4-8 in 2008. Then in 2009, they were just plain poor, winning only a single game and dropping to 1-11. Their SDPI numbers didn't suggest they were much better and with a new quarterback throwing to inexperienced receivers, 2010 doesn't offer much hope.

WAC Recap: 2005-2009

We've blitzed through the 6 BCS leagues thus far in our 5-year recaps, so now we move to the little guys. We'll start with the WAC, a league that has been dominated not only for the past 5 seasons, but also for the past decade by Boise State.

First off, here are the combined WAC standings from 2005-2009.Boise State is a robust 10 games clear of the the second best team since 2005. The largest gap between a first and second place team from the BCS conferences in this same span is 7 games (Ohio State over Penn State in the Big 10). Boise is also an amazing 33 games better than last place New Mexico State. Similarly, the largest gap between a first and last place team from the BCS conferences in this span is 27 games (Ohio State over Indiana in the Big 10 and Virginia Tech over Duke in the ACC). I guess what I'm trying to get at is that Boise has been really, really good against their league. Outside of Boise, the 3-team upper class of Nevada, Hawaii, and Fresno have performed very well. If we remove games against each other (and Boise), those 3 teams are a combined 64-11 against the bottom 5 teams in the conference since 2005.

Now here is the standard deviation of each team's conference record (in wins). Teams are ranked from the most inconsistent to the least.Hawaii has been the most inconsistent team over the past 5 seasons. They have been great (8-0 in 2007), very good (7-1 in 2006), pretty good (5-3 in 2008), average (4-4 in 2005), and kinda bad (3-5 in 2009). Boise State has been the most consistent team in the conference, winning either 7 or 8 games in each season. New Mexico State has also been very consistent, albeit on the other end of the winning spectrum. The Aggies have rolled off 3 consecutive single win conference seasons.

Now here is each team's point differential in conference play since 2005.In an average conference game for Boise State over the past 5 seasons, the Broncos have won by a shade more than 25 points. Their scoring margin is nearly more than double that of the second best team. The scoring margins for the WAC teams line up identically with their position in the aggregate conference standings meaning no team has been exceptionally lucky or unlucky over the past 5 seasons.

With this being the end of the decade, here's the tally of conference titles.Boise State joined the WAC prior to the 2001 season. In 9 seasons of WAC football play, the Broncos have won 7 league titles (6 of them outright). Hawaii broke up their streak in 2007. Louisiana Tech captured the title in 2001, the Broncos first season of play in the WAC, and TCU (remember them?) won the WAC title in 2000 on the back of LaDainian Tomlinson. The Horned Frogs bolted the WAC after their league title and began playing in Conference USA before joining the Mountain West prior to the 2005 season.

And finally, what was the biggest takeway from the 00 decade in the WAC?
Without a doubt, its the dominance of Boise State. In 2001, the WAC opened its doors and allowed a relatively unknown school from Idaho into the fold. True, Boise State had posted consecutive 10-win seasons as a member of the Big West conference prior to joining the WAC, but its doubtful anyone could have envisioned what Boise would become by the end of the decade. Since joining the WAC, the Broncos have gone 102-15 overall, finished undefeated in the regular season 4 times, and won a pair of BCS bowl games. However, Boise's most impressive accomplishment since joining the WAC is their record at home against WAC foes. The Broncos have not lost a conference game at home, compiling a gaudy 36-0 record against the WAC. And with rare exceptions, they have not been challenged in doing so. The average home game against a WAC team has seen Boise score 50.1 points and their opponents score 15.8. Only thrice has a team come within one-score of Boise. Tulsa lost by 7 in 2003, Hawaii fell by 7 in 2006, and Nevada came the closest in 2007, losing by 2 in a 4 overtime classic (on a Sunday night no less). When a WAC team comes to Boise, rest assured, the lumber will be laid.

WAC SDPI

We've exhausted our coverage of the big boys in our sojourn through the 2009 college football season. Now we move on to the mid-major leagues. We'll start with examining the WAC, home of the biggest household name outside of the BCS leagues--Boise State.

This first paragraph will explain how SDPI is calculated. So if you want the meat of this article skip on down. In the 2009 WAC regular season, conference play only, the average WAC team gained and allowed 3315.33 yards. The standard deviation for yards gained (offense) was 765.77 yards. The standard deviation for yards allowed (defense) was 342.31 yards. Fresno St gained 3393 yards and allowed 3391 yards. Their offensive SDPI was 0.10 = [(3393-3315.33)/765.77]. Their defensive SDPI was -0.22 = [(3315.33-3391)/342.31]. Their total SDPI was -0.12. This number ranked 5th in the WAC.

To refresh your memory, here are the 2009 WAC standings.
Now here are the 2009 WAC SDPI standings. The standings are sorted by total SDPI with ranking for each category (out of 9 teams) in parentheses.Not surprisingly, Boise State rates out as the best team in the WAC, followed closely by Nevada. These numbers probably overrate Nevada a bit because they dominated the lesser teams on their schedule to such a degree. Unlike Boise, Nevada was unable to hang with the better teams they faced outside the WAC, losing to Notre Dame, Missouri, and SMU by a combined 80 points. The teams with the biggest discrepancies between the actual and SDPI standings are Louisiana Tech and Hawaii. The Bulldogs and Warriors ranked 3rd and 4th respectively in SDPI, yet both had identical 3-5 conference records. For Louisiana Tech, the culprit was close losses. 3 of their 5 losses came by a combined 5 points. In addition, their 3 conference wins all came by at least 21 points with an average margin of just over 31 points per game. For Hawaii, the culprit was turnovers. In league play, the Warriors boasted a turnover margin of -9, which was second to last. These turnovers (21 in league play) severely hampered their offense. Despite the fact that they finished 4th in the conference in yards gained, they were 7th in points scored.

Conference Superlatives

Best Offense: Nevada 1.41
Outside of their struggle (relatively speaking against Boise State), the Wolfpack curbstomped every other WAC team. They never gained fewer than 496 yards against another WAC foe and averaged over 573 yards in those other 7 games. They topped 600 yards in 3 of their 8 conference games.

Worst Offense: New Mexico St -1.87
The Aggies fielded perhaps the worst offense in all of Division IA. The Aggies peaked as an offense in their first game, when they rolled for 342 yards against Idaho. In their other 7 WAC games, they averaged 220 yards per game. And of course, who can forget their showing against Ohio State in Columbus, when they finished the game with 62 yards of total offense.

Best Defense: Boise State 1.69
As always, the Broncos do it with defense. Of course, that's not to say the Broncos were flawless on this end. Fresno State and Idaho both topped 500 yards against Boise. Fresno via the ground game (320 yards) and Idaho through the air (305 yards). In their other 6 conference games, Boise allowed their WAC foes an average of only 286 yards per game.

Worst Defense: New Mexico St -1.19
The Aggies pulled double duty at the bottom of the WAC. Their defense was not quite as bad as their offense (Idaho was was very close to them in terms of defensive ineptitude, while no one was close in terms of offensive performance), but that's damning with faint praise.

What's in Store for Next Year?
The race for first place in the WAC probably won't be very exciting. With a plethora of returning starters, Boise State looks poised to continue their dominance of the WAC. However, the race for second may end being quite contentious. Reigning silver medalist Nevada, returns 9 starters from the league's best offense and looks to continue Pistol-whipping their WAC foes. The biggest challenger to Nevada may end up being Louisiana Tech. The Bulldogs featured the second best defense in the WAC last season, but in 2010 they may unveil the league's most improved offense. Not only did they acquire Sonny Dykes, who helped run the spread at Texas Tech and who revived a dormant offense at Arizona, to replace Derek Dooley as head coach, but they also pried noted spread aficionado Tony Franklin from Middle Tennessee State where he helped drastically improve the Blue Raider offense in just one season. Louisiana Tech was also better than their record would indicate last season, so look no further than Ruston, Louisiana for your 2010 WAC sleeper. Another school that could challenge Nevada is Hawaii. The Warriors were also better than their poor conference record last season and with quarterback Bryant Moniz gaining valuable experience last season, the offense should be able to put more points on the board in 2010. Fresno State has long had the reputation of an elite WAC team, but the Bulldogs only have the 4th best WAC record since 2005 (stay tuned for more on this next week). The bad news for Fresno is they lose 3 of their top-4 receivers as well as running back Ryan Matthews who led the nation in rushing yards per game and decided to forgo his senior season to enter the NFL draft. Like Fresno, another team likely to take a step back in 2010 is Idaho. The Vandals were one of the best stories of the 2009 college football season, racking up 8 wins after winning just 9 in the previous 4 seasons. Still, the Vandals were a little lucky, going 5-1 in one-score games, and they still bested only New Mexico State in terms of defensive acumen in WAC play. And speaking of the Vandals, if there is one team poised to make an Idaho-like jump from obscurity to the postseason, its Utah State. The Aggies had a very tough non-conference schedule last season, losing to Utah, BYU, and Texas A&M all on the road. Within the league, they rated out as the 7th best team, but were within shouting distance of 2 teams that qualified for bowl games (Idaho and Fresno State). 2010 will mark the senior campaign for one of the best unknown quarterbacks in the nation, Diondre Borel of Utah State. Borel threw 17 touchdown passes against just 4 interceptions last season, and could end up being the best quarterback in the league outside of Kellen Moore (Boise State) and Colin Kaepernick (Nevada) this season. The rear of the WAC should be brought up by San Jose State and New Mexico State. The Spartans are replacing Dick Tomey who did pretty good things in his 5 years at the school. Tomey took the Spartans to one bowl, and had them bowl eligible in another season. Unfortunately, he could never quite get the offense going, and its doesn't appear new coach Mike MacIntyre (former Duke defensive coordinator) will be able to do any better in his first season. DeWayne Walker had a pretty miserable first season as head coach of New Mexico State. Year 2 will likely be a little better, but the Aggies should still be one of the WAC's worst teams on both sides of the ball.

SEC Recap: 2005-2009

In our half-decade retrospective, we've looked at all 6 BCS conferences save one. It's time to see how things have gone down in the deep south over the past 5 seasons. Or as it may one day come to be known, the Urban Era.

First off, here are combined SEC standings from 2005-2009.The Gators have dominated the SEC since Urban Meyer started coaching them, racking up 3 SEC East titles in his 5 seasons as coach. Alabama has made quite a run in the past 2 seasons, winning 16 straight league games to move into 2nd place after a ho-hum 12-12 mark from 2005-2007. Florida and Alabama are the only 2 teams to have gone undefeated in league play since 2005. Alabama did it in 2008 and both teams accomplished the feat in 2009. Meanwhile, Ole Miss and Vanderbilt are the only 2 teams to go winless in league play in that same span. Ole Miss did not win a single SEC game in 2007 before rebounding to win 5 in 2008. Vandy went winless this past season.

Now here is the standard deviation of each team's conference record (in wins). Teams are ranked from the most inconsistent to the least.The most inconsistent teams in the SEC have all played out west. All 6 teams from the West have had both a losing conference record since 2005 and at least a .500 mark in league play as well. If we remove Mississippi State from the equation (the most consistent team in the West), the other 5 SEC West teams have all had at least one losing and one winning conference record. Contrast this to the SEC East, where only South Carolina and Tennessee have had both a losing and winning conference record since 2005.

Now here is each team's point differential in conference play since 2005.Florida's dominance reveals itself even more when we examine point differential. The Gators' differential of +544 (13.6 per game) is nearly equal to that of the 2nd and 3rd place teams combined (+568). The point differentials line up exactly with the conference standings until we get to the bottom. Vanderbilt has an almost identical point differential with Kentucky, yet trails them by 4 games in the standings. The Commodores also have a much greater point differential than Mississippi State, yet trail them by a game in the standings.

With this being the end of the decade, here's the tally of conference and division titles.Florida and LSU won 6 conference titles between them this decade and also 4 BCS national titles. Not a bad decade. What's even more amazing is that 2 different coaches for each team won a conference title, and in LSU's case a national title as well. As for division titles, every team that won a division title in the 2000s won at least 2. However, Tennessee and Arkansas were unable to make their SEC Championship Game appearances count, going a combined 0-5 in the big game in the Georgia Dome.

And finally, what was the biggest takeaway from the 00 decade in the SEC?
I'm inclined to say its how competitive Vanderbilt has become. In 8 seasons under Bobby Johnson, the Commodores are still an SEC bottom-feeder, having gone just 12-52 against the league since Johnson took over prior to the 2002 season. However, in the 8 seasons before Johnson's arrival, the Commodores won only 7 conference games. Johnson has nearly doubled that output in his tenure. He has also made the Commodores much more competitive as the table below illustrates.In 5 of Johnson's 8 season, the Commodores have posted a better conference point differential than they did in any season in the previous 8. Johnson made the Commodores relevant for 5 consecutive seasons beginning in 2004, and culminating with their first bowl bid in a quarter century in 2008. The team slipped a little in 2009, but their point differential would have been an average season for the team in the late 90's and early 00's. Vandy is no longer an assured win on any team's schedule.

SEC SDPI

We now come to the last (but certainly not least) BCS conference--the SEC. What can we expect in the deep south this fall?

This first paragraph will explain how SDPI is calculated. So if you want the meat of this article skip on down. In the 2009 SEC regular season, conference play only, championship games excluded, the average SEC team gained and allowed 2757.583 yards. The standard deviation for yards gained (offense) was 362.41 yards. The standard deviation for yards allowed (defense) was 421.56 yards. Georgia gained 2867 yards and allowed 3035 yards. Their offensive SDPI was 0.30 = [(2867-2757.583)/362.41]. Their defensive SDPI was -0.66 = [(2757.583-3035)/421.56]. Their total SDPI was -0.36. This number ranked 7th in the SEC.

To refresh your memory, here are the 2009 SEC standings.
Now here are the 2009 SEC SDPI standings. The standings are sorted by division by total SDPI with ranking for each category (out of 12 teams) in parentheses.The 2 teams that combined to go 16-0 in conference play in the regular season rate out statistically as the 2 best teams in the league. The biggest disconnect between the actual and SDPI standings comes down on the bayou in the form of LSU. The Tigers finished all alone in second place in the SEC West despite being outgained by about 33 yards per game in league play. The Tigers' biggest deficiency was their anemic offense, which if not for Vanderbilt, would have been the worst in the SEC. However, the defense was solid and allowed the Tigers to hang around and pull out close victories (3-1 in one-score conference games). In 2 of those wins (Mississippi State and Arkansas), which the Tigers won by a combined 7 points, their special teams and defense contributed a combined 3 touchdowns. Those 3 individual plays were likely the biggest difference between a 5-3 and 3-5 conference record.

Conference Superlatives

Best Offense: Ole Miss 0.96
In a league dominated by defense, the Rebels moved the ball well against everyone save South Carolina and Alabama. The Gamecocks and Tide held the Rebels to 460 combined yards. In their other 6 conference games, the Rebels averaged 441 yards per game.

Worst Offense: Vanderbilt -2.42
The Commodore defense was not very good, but if you're looking for a culprit for their winless league season, its clearly the offense. The Commodores averaged 235 yards per game in SEC play. They never once eclipsed 300 yards (topped out at 297) and scored only 5 offensive touchdowns in their 8 conference games!

Best Defense: Florida 2.09
This was the area of the Gators team that really allowed them to contend for the SEC and national title. Prior to the SEC Championship Game, during which Alabama gashed the Gators for 490 yards, only a single conference foe topped 300 yards against the Gator defense (Arkansas had 357 in their near upset). Besides their yardage totals, one of the most amazing aspects of the Tide's performance against the Gators were their 3 rushing touchdowns. In the regular season, the Gators allowed exactly 3 rushing touchdowns to their other 8 SEC foes.

Worst Defense: Arkansas -1.42
Every SEC team gained at least 300 yards against the Hogs (best performance came when they allowed 326 versus LSU). If the defense had been just a little better, Arkansas could have had a special season. They lost 2 games when they scored 41 and 30 points respectively.

What's in Store for Next Year?
East Division:
If there is going to be a time for the Gators' strangle-hold on the East to be broken, this will be the year. The Gators have won 3 of the last 5 SEC East pennants since Urban Meyer took over prior to the 2005 season (and 3 out of the last 4). Meyer will be breaking in a new quarterback as John Brantley takes over for the departed Tim Tebow. The Gators also lose a pair of standout pass catchers in Riley Cooper and Aaron Hernandez. The defense, the real strength of last season's team, also loses some playmakers, particularly linebackers Ryan Stamper and Brandon Spikes. The window is open for other teams to sneak in, but who is most likely to do it? Georgia is coming off their worst season (statistically) of the Mark Richt era and will be playing with an inexperienced quarterback as well. Tennessee was the second best team in the division last season, but their polished quarterback and coaching staff have flown the coop and headed west. What about South Carolina? Can they end the triumvirate that has dominated the East since the divisional format began (Florida, Georgia, and Tennessee are the only schools to win the East)? One would think this is their best chance with an improving junior quarterback in Stephen Garcia and an emerging sophomore receiver in Alshon Jeffery. The Gamecocks also have a more favorable schedule this season, with Georgia, Tennessee, and Arkansas all making the trek to Columbia, while half of their SEC road games come against Kentucky and Vanderbilt. Speaking of the 'Cats and 'Dores, Kentucky will begin a new era under Joker Phillips in 2010. It will probably look very similar to the end of the Rick Brooks era. 3 non-conference body bag games (Western Kentucky, Akron, and Charleston Southern) will have them half way to bowl eligibility, so they will just need to find 3 other wins somewhere in the SEC schedule and in their in-state battle with Louisville. For Vanderbilt, the offense can't possibly be as bad as it was last season, so the 'Dores should once again be a competitive SEC lightweight that notches a few wins. However, they did themselves no favors with a non-conference slate that actually includes living, breathing, foes in Northwestern, Connecticut, and Wake Forest, so a bowl bid is unlikely.

West Division:
In the West, it looks like a repeat, at least for the division title (and in this case a 3-peat), is probable for the Tide. The quarterback, Heisman Trophy running back, and top-2 receivers all return to a solid, if unspectacular offense. The defense loses some talent at each level with monstrous tackle Terrence Cody, athletic linebackers Rolando McClain, and playmaking defensive back Javier Arenas all departing. Still, by season's end, Nick Saban should have the defense playing if not at an elite, then at a very high level. So who is their biggest threat? Arkansas has the offensive punch to hang with the Tide, but their defense was last in the conference last season. Ole Miss was statistically the division's second best team last year, but their quarterback and do-it-all running back are gone along with a pair of talented defensive linemen in Emmanuel Stephens and Greg Hardy. The Auburn offense improved by leaps and bounds under the tutelage of Gus Malzahn in 2009, but now the Tigers must also replace their starting quarterback and running back (sense a pattern here?). The other Tigers from Baton Rouge do bring back their starting quarterback, but lose his top-receiver and the team's top-2 rushers from an offense that was not exceptional to begin with. And finally we have Mississippi State, which for the first time in a long time had an average offense under first year coach Dan Mullen. Can it get even better in year 2? Unfortunately, the Bulldogs also lose their starting quarterback and running back, and just as anyone who has ever started an exercise regimen will inform you, its a lot easier to go from out of shape to average fitness than it is to take the next step and go from average to proficient.

Pac-10 Recap: 2005-2009

In our offseason retrospective, we now come to the Pac-10, the lone BCS conference on the west coast. Here's how its played out over the last 5 seasons.

First off, here are the combined Pac-10 standings from 2005-2009.No real surprise at the top. Despite a down year in 2009, the Trojans are still 4 games clear of their closest competition in the last half-decade. Washington and Washington St are the only Pac-10 teams to not have a winning conference record since 2005 (both topped out at 4-5) and they are also the only 2 teams to go winless in league play in that span. Washington did it first in 2008, and their brethren from Pullman followed them up with a winless conference season in 2009. Since the Pac-10 went to a 9-game conference season in 2006, no team has gone unbeaten in the league (Southern Cal finished 8-1 in 2008 and Oregon finished 8-1 in 2009).

Now here is the standard deviation of each team's conference record (in wins). Teams are ranked from the most inconsistent to the least.Stanford has been the most inconsistent Pac-10 team over the past 5 seasons. That's no real surprise when you examine their record. In 2005, under the tutelage of Walt Harris, they finished a respectable 4-4 in the Pac-10. The very next season, they endured one of the worst conference seasons in recent memory. If not for the lamentable seasons put up by both Washington schools in 2008 and Washington St in 2009, the 1-8 Cardinal campaign 0f 2006 would stand as the worst team season of the past 5 years in the Pac-10. Of course, just 3 short seasons later, Jim Harbaugh had the Cardinal in contention for the Rose Bowl as they finished with a 6-3 conference record. Southern Cal has been the most consistent Pac-10 outfit of the past 5 years. Aside from their plunge into mediocrity in 2009, the Trojans had won 7 or 8 conference games from 2005-2008.

Now here is each team's point differential in conference play since 2005.Again, no real surprises here. The Trojans have outscored their conference opponents on average by about 16 points per game since 2005. If we just focus on their run from 2005-2008 (the Trojans were just above the break even point in 2009), that number jumps to over 19.7 points per game. Oregon is the only team besides Southern Cal to not be outscored in any one season. Washington State has been outscored by 653 points over the past 2 seasons. This means, on average, their Pac-10 opponents have beaten them by 36.3 points per game!

With this being the end of the decade, here's the tally of conference titles.We're giving Washington State credit for the 2002 crown they shared with Southern Cal because they beat the Trojans head-to-head. Similarly, for Southern Cal's other split titles (2006 and 2007), California and Arizona State do not get any credit because the Trojans owned the head-to-head tiebreaker. Somewhat ironically, the 2 schools with the worst records over the past 5 seasons (combined 19-69) won 2 conference titles in the first 3 seasons of the decade (2000 and 2002).

And finally, what was the biggest takeway from the 00 decade in the Pac-10?
I'm not going to go with the obvious and say the re-emergence of the Trojan empire. No, I'll say its the shift in power in the Pacific northwest from the Washington schools to the Oregon schools. The table below lists the combined winning percentage of the Oregon and Washington schools broken down into 5 year windows beginning in 1990.As you can see, the Oregon schools began the 1990's as pretty forgettable outfits. Oregon was an occasional bowl contender, but the Beavers from Oregon State were awful (3 straight single win seasons from 1990-1992). Meanwhile Washington was busy winning conference and national titles (1991) and the Cougars from Washington State would balance out 3 and 4 win seasons with an occasional bowl bid. As the decade wore on, Oregon continued to contend for bowl games and also won the conference in 1995. Oregon State steadily rose, adding to their win totals each season beginning in 1996 and culminating with their first bowl bid in 35 years following the 1999 season. Washington slipped in the Pac-10 pecking order, and while the Cougars went to the Rose Bowl in 1997, they did not have a winning season in the 2 seasons prior or the 3 seasons after. When the new decade dawned, Oregon and Oregon State enjoyed some of their finest seasons in school history. Washington also stayed relevant at the beginning of the decade, and Washington State enjoyed 3 consecutive 10-win seasons from 2001-2003. However, in the second half of the decade, the Oregon schools continued to churn out winners, posting just a single losing season between them since 2005, while the Washington schools have not had a winning season between them since 2003! Washington appears to be back on the rise under Steve Sarkisian, but Washington State is mired in deficiency. Perhaps massive changes await in the new decade, but for now it appears the state of Oregon is king in the Pacific Northwest.

Pac-10 SDPI

This week in our SDPI posts, we'll try to shed our East Coast bias as we trek out west to examine the Pac-10.

As usual, this first paragraph will explain how SDPI is calculated. So if you want the meat of this article skip on down. In the 2009 Pac-10 regular season, conference play only, the average Pac-10 team gained and allowed 3383.4 yards. The standard deviation for yards gained (offense) was 617.95 yards. The standard deviation for yards allowed (defense) was 460.26 yards. Arizona gained 3630 yards and allowed 3044 yards. Their offensive SDPI was 0.40 = [(3630-3383.4)/617.95]. Their defensive SDPI was 0.74 = [(3383.4-3044)/460.26]. Their total SDPI was 1.14. This number ranked 3rd in the Pac-10.

To refresh your memory, here are the 2009 Pac-10 standings.
Now here are the 2009 Pac-10 SDPI standings. The standings are sorted by total SDPI with ranking for each category (out of 10 teams) in parentheses.The big story in the Pac-10 in 2009 was the fall of the mighty Trojans. After winning outright or sharing 7 straight conference titles, and being a national title contender year-in and year-out, the Trojans slipped to the middle of the Pac-10 standings. Based on SDPI, their fall was no fluke brought about by poor luck or happenstance. The Trojans' offense was slightly below average and their defense was just a shade above average. Altogether, the Trojans were a middling team and their record reflected as such. However, there were 2 Pac-10 teams with conference records that didn't quite match up with their actual performances. Despite the fact that they fielded the worst offense in the Pac-10 this side of Washington State, the Sun Devils from Arizona State made up for it by fielding one of the league's best defenses. However, their poor mark in close games (0-3 in Pac-10 play in one-score games) and poor turnover margin (league worst -12) led to a poor 2-7 league record. Meanwhile, Cal won more games than they lost in the league despite being statistically the worst team besides Washington State thanks to an unblemished mark in close games (3-0 in one-score league games) and a solid turnover margin (+3).

Conference Superlatives

Best Offense: Oregon 1.44
Maybe the Pac-10 had a lot of bad defenses, maybe it was just a statistical quirk based on a relatively small sample, or maybe the Oregon offense had a tough time getting going, but the Ducks had quite a conference/non-conference split in 2009. In their 4 non-conference games (began the year with 3 straight non-league games), the Ducks averaged 270 yards per game, never gaining more than 356 yards in any contest. In Pac-10 play, Oregon averaged 475 yards per game.

Worst Offense: Washington State -2.11
The Cougars were held below 200 yards in two-thirds (6) of their conference games. The Cougars somehow managed to gash Cal for 440 yards of offense, yet still lost by more than 4 touchdowns. The Cougars scored 10 touchdowns in their 9 conference games.

Best Defense: Oregon 1.17
Outside of a no-show at Stanford (505 yards allowed at 7 yards a pop), the Oregon defense acquitted itself very well, holding 5 league teams under 350 yards.

Worst Defense: Washington State -2.26
In their best defensive showing, the Cougars 'held' Southern Cal to 403 yards. If they allowed that many yards in every game, they would have finished 9th in the Pac-10 in defense!

What's in Store for Next Year?
The Trojans will be back in their customary place in 2010 right? 2009 was just a bump in the road and a slew of Rose Bowls are in the future right? Maybe not. Why? Well, as mentioned earlier, the Trojans were not a particularly good team in 2009. Their offense and defense were right around average by Pac-10 standards, and the Trojans were actually outscored by 9 points in their 8 conference games not involving Washington State. Don't forget the Trojans will also be breaking in a new coach, a coach who has yet to accomplish anything of note I might add, and will also be losing a great deal of talent including all 4 starters in the secondary. Don't pencil the Trojans in for a return to glory just yet. That's good news for the other 9 teams in the conference, but may be bad news for the Pac-10's national reputation. The 2010 Pac-10 could be a lot like the 2009 Big East in that it is a major conference with no real favorite heading into the season. So who could contend for the title in 2010? The defending champs from Oregon seemed poised to make another run at the Rose Bowl, until some minor legal issues emerged in the offseason. Stanford loses star running back Tobey Gerhart to the NFL Draft, but does return 7 other starters from the 2nd best offense in the conference. If the defense can get a little better, Jim Harbaugh will once again be one of the hottest coaching commodities come December. Mike Riley has built a consistent winner at a former college football outpost, and the Beavers have finished just one game shy of the Rose Bowl each of the past 2 seasons. The defense loses only 3 starters, and should remain one of the league's best, but the offense must break in a new quarterback and will likely go through some growing pains. Arizona State will certainly be better than their 2-7 conference record in 2009, but massive improvements on offense are unlikely as the starting quarterback, running back, and top-2 receivers must be replaced. Rick Neuheisel has yet to post a competent offense in his 2 seasons in Los Angeles, so the Bruins will likely play a few games in the Rose Bowl, but none in the postseason. Washington will likely be a trendy pick in the preseason, and the Huskies certainly showed marked improvement in Steve Sarkisian's first season, but they were still statistically one of the worst teams in the Pac-10 (below average on both sides of the ball). Cal won more Pac-10 games than they lost last season, but in their 4 losses, they were far from competitive. In loses to Oregon, Southern Cal, Oregon State, and Washington, the Bears were outscored by nearly 29 points per game (and 2 of those losses came at home). The Bears defense was also the 2nd worst in the Pac-10 last season, so the chance that they end their 52-year Rose Bowl drought is unlikely. As for Washington State, well if they somehow manage to win the league in 2010 (hell, if they qualify for a bowl game), it will be one of the biggest surprises of all time. So who does that leave? Arizona. Lesser Stoops has been quietly building a contender in Tucson. Sure the Wildcats didn't exactly end the season on a positive note, losing 33-0 to Nebraska in the Holiday Bowl, but they were solid on both sides of the ball in the Pac-10. If they can overcome the loss of offensive coordinator Sonny Dykes (head coach at Louisiana Tech) and some attrition on defense, the Wildcats could find themselves in their first ever Rose Bowl come early January.

Big 12 Recap: 2005-2009

Thus far in our offseason half-decade retrospective, we've looked at the ACC, Big East, and Big 10. Now we examine the Big 12. Care to hazard any guesses as to who the 2 best teams in this league are?

First off, here are combined Big 12 standings from 2005-2009.Texas and Oklahoma are the Yankees and Red Sox of the Big 12. However, Texas is the only team to have gone undefeated in league play (2005 and 2009). Over the past 5 seasons, the Red Raiders from Texas Tech have not only been the 3rd best team in what has amounted to a 2 team league, but they have gone a respectable 4-6 against Texas and Oklahoma (beating Oklahoma 3 straight times in Lubbock). And while the Red Raiders have made a habit of taking it to the bullies of the Big 12 on numerous occasions, they have also been subject to a few shockers as well. The Red Raiders have lost 3 straight at Oklahoma State, once to a very good Cowboy team (2009), once to a thoroughly mediocre Cowboy team (2007), and once to a Cowboy team that would have gone winless in the Big 12 if not for the generosity of Tech (2005). The Red Raiders also dropped home games to lackluster squads from Texas A&M (2009), Missouri (2006), and Colorado (2007) teams. If the Aggies and Buffs had not won those games, they would not have even been bowl eligible. Elsewhere in the standings, Missouri and Nebraska have clearly been the cream of the crop in the Big 12 North. Oklahoma State and coach Mike Gundy deserve major kudos. After bottoming out in his first season at 1-7, the Cowboys have nearly clawed their way back to .500, going 18-14 in league play over the past 4 seasons. Baylor is the lone Big 12 team to not post at least a break even mark in league play at least once since 2005. The Bears (2007) are also one of only 2 teams (Iowa St in 2008) to post winless seasons in league play.

Now here is the standard deviation of each team's conference record (in wins). Teams are ranked from the most inconsistent to the least.Kansas has been the most inconsistent Big 12 team of the last half-decade. This is primarily the result of their dream 2007 season (7-1), followed shortly thereafter by a 1-7 nightmare (2009) that saw them lose their final 7 games and ultimately cost Mark Mangino his job. Oklahoma has been the most consistent team, alternating 6 and 7 win seasons from 2005 through 2008, before bottoming out (relatively) with 5 league wins in 2009.

Now here is each team's point differential in conference play since 2005.The point differential standings align almost perfectly with the actual league standings. The only real head-scratcher is Missouri's large lead over Nebraska in point differential (+221 points) resulting in only a one-game lead in the standings. All of this difference can be attributed to the historic 2007 season that saw Nebraska sink to new lows and Missouri reach new heights. Missouri's point differential (+154) was 236 more than Nebraska's (-82) that season. if we remove 2007 from the equation, Nebraska actually has a slight advantage in point differential (+113 to +96) and in the standings (21-11 to 17-15).

With this being the end of the decade, here's the tally of conference and division titles.Again, no shocker. Well, maybe a little. While Texas has the better league mark since 2005, Oklahoma really dominated this conference in the first half of the aughts. They won 4 of 5 South Division titles and thrice went unbeaten in Big 12 play (regular season). They were 36-4 against the Big 12 from 2000-2004. Of course, Texas was no slouch, compiling a 34-6 record over the same span. However, the Longhorns never defeated the Sooners in that stretch and won only a single division title, which they blew as heavy favorites to Colorado in 2001. The South has been favored in each Big 12 Championship Game in the past decade, and the pair of titles won by the North occurred in somewhat shocking (Colorado over Texas in 2001) and ultra-shocking fashion (Kansas St over Oklahoma in 2003).

And finally, what was the biggest takeaway from the 00 decade in the Big 12?
The fundamental shift in power from the Big 12 North to the Big 12 South. When the Big 12 was formed in the mid-1990's the class of the conference was clearly in the North. Nebraska had just won back-to-back national titles (94 and 95). They would contend for another in 1996 before sharing the title with Michigan in 1997. Kansas State was experiencing its finest decade ever under Bill Snyder. Colorado was still a national player, appearing in bowl games in 10 out of 11 seasons from 1985-1995, along with a somewhat dubious national title in 1990. It should be noted that when the league formed, even perennial doormat Kansas was coming off a 10-win season in 1995. Meanwhile, the 2 big boy programs in what would be the South were experiencing some of their worst times. Howard Schnellenberger and John Blake conspired to run Oklahoma into the ground, posting a 17-27-1 record in their 4 combined seasons (1995-1998). While Texas did upset Nebraska in the first ever Big 12 Championship Game in 1996 (for which Steve Spurrier is eternally grateful), the Longhorns managed only a 41-28-2 record in 6 seasons under John Mackovic (1992-1997) and lost at least 4 games each season save one. After the schools canned Blake and Mackovic, they certainly hired the right men for the job. Meanwhile, back in the North, Nebraska slipped a little under Tom Osborne's successor Frank Solich. After releasing him of his duties, they slipped a lot more under Bill Callahan. Kansas State also slipped under Bill Snyder. Upon his retirement, the program slipped a lot more under his replacement Ron Prince. Colorado also slipped under Gary Barnett and then really faceplanted when they hired zen guru Dan Hawkins to take his place. The fall of these 3 powers allowed programs such as Missouri, Kansas, and Iowa State to enjoy some of their finest seasons in the late-1990's and 2000's. However, the fall of those formerly elite 1990's programs caused a severe divisional imbalance. In the 1990's, Big 12 North Division teams were a combined 42-30 against teams from the South. That's good for a winning percentage of .583. In those 4 seasons, the North never finished worse than 9-9 against the South. Since 2000, the North has enjoyed exactly 2 winning seasons against the South (2001 and 2007). In both those seasons, the North went 10-8 against the South. They also broke even in 2000. From 2000-2009, the North has gone 65-155 against the South. That's a winning percentage of .361. The chart below shows the Big 12 North's winning percentage versus the South since the conference formed prior to the 1996 season.