Big 12 SDPI

It's only March and we're already half way through the BCS leagues. This week, we'll examine the Big 12 and what to expect from that conference in the fall.

This first paragraph will explain how SDPI is calculated. So if you want the meat of this article skip on down. In the 2009 Big 12 regular season, conference play only, championship games excluded, the average Big 12 team gained and allowed 2926.917 yards. The standard deviation for yards gained (offense) was 419.36 yards. The standard deviation for yards allowed (defense) was 507.96 yards. Colorado gained 2352 yards and allowed 2721 yards. Their offensive SDPI was -1.37 = [(2721-2926.917)/419.36]. Their defensive SDPI was 0.41 = [(2926.917-2721)/507.96]. Their total SDPI was -0.97. This number ranked 10th in the Big 12.

To refresh your memory, here are the 2009 Big 12 standings.
Now here are the 2009 Big 12 SDPI standings. The standings are sorted by division by total SDPI with ranking for each category (out of 12 teams) in parentheses.The actual standings and the SDPI standings are a little misalligned. In the North, Missouri rates as the best team, despite the fact that Nebraska beat them on the field and in the standings. Elsewhere in the North, Iowa State ranks as the worst team (by far), yet they qualified for a bowl game, while Colorado and Kansas finished below them in the standings. In fact, the middle-four teams in the division (Nebraska, Kansas, Kansas State, and Colorado) were separated by only half a standard deviation. In the South, Oklahoma rated out as the best team, despite losing outright to both Texas Tech and Texas. Speaking of the Red Raiders, they rate as the second best team in the league, but they are always overvalued by SDPI because of the type of offense they run. We'll see if that continues with the changes at head coach.

Conference Superlatives

Best Offense: Texas Tech 1.52
In an interesting twist, the Red Raiders were held in check only once in Big 12 play, when they were held to 259 total yards against Nebraska (worst since a loss to TCU in 2006). Nebraska featured the 2nd best defense in the Big 12. Against the league's best defense (Oklahoma), the Red Raiders rolled up 549 yards. Perhaps venue had a little something to do with that. The Nebraska game was in Lincoln, while the game against the Sooners came in Lubbock.

Worst Offense: Nebraska -1.60
The Cornhuskers gained over 400 yards only once in conference play, versus Kansas. They were held below 300 yards 6 times in league play. In the Big 12 Championship Game, the offense was what prevented the Huskers from shaking up the BCS standings, as they wasted a great defensive performance by gaining 106 total yards!

Best Defense: Oklahoma 1.29
Outside of the aforementioned game against Texas Tech, the Sooners held their Big 12 foes in check. Kansas (305) and Kansas State (364) were the only other Big 12 teams to gain over 300 yards against the Sooners defense.

Worst Defense: Texas A&M -1.50
The Aggies defense kept them from enjoying a sensational season as they featured the 2nd best offense in the league. Only Baylor (297) and Iowa State (324) failed to gain over 400 yards against the Aggies in Big 12 play.

What's in Store for Next Year?
North Division:
Just as a duumvirate has emerged in the South Division with Texas and Oklahoma, I have a feeling the same is well on its way to occurring in the North. Nebraska and Missouri have won the past 4 North Division titles, and since Nebraska's resurrection began under Bo Pelini in 2008, the Tigers and Huskers are a combined 14-2 against the rest of the Big 12 North, with the average win coming by more than 2 touchdowns (16.9 points per game). Missouri is set in the backfield with cannon-armed quarterback Blaine Gabbert and running back Derrick Washington, but the Tigers lose Gabbert's favorite target, receiver Danario Alexander, who hauled in 113 balls last season. The Tigers will also be without the services of do-it-all linebacker Sean Weatherspoon. The Huskers will be more limited on offense, but should improved upon their dismal showing from last season. The defense, even with the loss of superstar defensive tackle Ndamukong Suh, should once again be one of the Big 12's best. Couple the still strong defense with minor improvements on offense and the venue of this year's clash (Lincoln, Nebraska), and Nebraska should be the odds on favorite heading into 2010. The other 4 teams in the division, Colorado, Iowa State, Kansas, and Kansas State should not pose a serious threat to either Nebraska or Missouri. However, at least one, and perhaps two of the four will be participating in the bowl season. Colorado was a trendy sleeper last season, and the university's financial trouble could be a godsend for embattled coach Dan Hawkins. In most other economic climates, Hawkins would have been axed after a 4th straight losing season in 2009. However, Colorado couldn't afford his buyout, and Hawkins is around for year 5. I don't know that Colorado is a sleeper, but the Buffs were much better than a team that won only 2 league games. The defense was actually solid last season, and with only 4 starters gone, should remain the strength of the team. Colorado won't set the Big 12 afire in 2010, but with a little luck, Hawkins should have his first winning season in Boulder. Whether or not that's grounds for remaining employed is not up to me. Of the other 3 schools, Kansas State has the next best shot at getting to a bowl. In Bill Snyder's first year back in Manhattan, the Wildcats went from the worst defense in the Big 12 to merely below average. The offense, despite the loss of 1st round pick Josh Freeman, stayed about the same. Like Colorado, the Wildcats shouldn't be a legitimate threat to the top teams in the conference, but should only need to corral 3 league wins to get to the postseason. Iowa State was a great story last season, as only a madman or genius would have picked them to go to a bowl after an 0-8 Big 12 season in 2008. However, statistically, the 2009 bowl-winning Cyclones were a shade worse than their 0-fer Big 12 play 2008 incarnation. The difference was close games (3-2 in one-score games in 2009 after going 0-4 in such games in 2008) and turnovers (+8 in Big 12 play in 2009 and -2 in 2008). The Cyclones won't go winless in the Big 12 in 2010, but I wouldn't pencil them in for postseason play either. Kansas should compete with the Cyclones for the cellar in the North. Kansas is under new management with Turner Gill taking the reigns from Mark Mangino. Unfortunately, Gill will not have the services of 3 key skill position players that helped the Jayhawks win the Orange Bowl in 2007 (quarterback Todd Reesing, running back Jake Sharp, and receiver Kerry Meier). This will likely be a rebuilding year in Lawrence.

South:
I'm not gonna come up with any ground-breaking predictions for the Big 12 South. For the 100th straight year (actually just the 12th) either Oklahoma or Texas will win the division. Oklahoma should be the odds on favorite for several reasons. Statistically, the Sooners had both a better offense and defense than Texas in 2009. Oklahoma was done in by poor luck in close games (1-4 in one-score contests) and an average turnover margin (even in Big 12 play). Meanwhile, Texas won both their one-score games, and featured a fabulous turnover margin (+11 in Big 12 play). Texas also scored 11 non-offensive touchdowns to Oklahoma's 4. Those other facets of play all help to win football games, but unfortunately for Texas, they are also not as consistent year-to-year as outperforming your opponent on a down-by-down basis. Another big reason to like the Sooners in 2010 is that their quarterback was thrown into the fire last season. Following Sam Bradford's injury in the season opener against BYU, Landry Jones threw passes in each game save one (Baylor). He learned on the job, and also performed well overall (130.82 passer rating ranked 52nd nationally), though he did have a few stinkers in the Sooners losses (3 touchdown passes and 8 picks in the 5 games the Sooners lost). Texas also had their quarterback get some crucial on the job training, but unfortunately it came in the BCS National Championship Game after Colt McCoy was knocked out early. Garret Gilbert had an uneven performance against one of the best defenses in the nation, and he probably won't face any circumstances as dire as that game in his college career. Still, the Sooners have a decided edge at perhaps the most important position. Elsewhere in the South, Oklahoma State enjoyed yet another solid campaign under Mike Gundy, posting one of their best defensive performances in recent memory. It's a true shame Dez Bryant only got to play in 3 games before the NCAA kicked him to the curb, as the accomplishments in Stillwater could have been historic. Without him, the offense was only 7th in the Big 12, and the Cowboys proved to be paper tigers against the more elite teams they faced. A downturn is sure to ensue after the Cowboys bid adieu to 8 starters on defense and the school's all-time leading passer in Zac Robinson. Texas Tech will be a team everyone has their eye on in 2010. Can Tommy Tuberville maintain the pace set by Mike Leach at a football outpost in Lubbock? Tuberville is a fine coach, but Mike Leach did some amazing things in his decade-long run at Tech. Texas A&M will also be an interesting team to watch. They were certainly the epitome of an unbalanced team in 2009. Their offense, behind quarterback Jerrod Johnson, was 2nd in the Big 12, but their defense was dead last. The defense loses only one significant contributor, but again, it was dead last. If the offense can at least somewhat resemble their 2009 form and the defense can become bad instead of awful, the Aggies could be a proverbial darkhorse in 2010. And finally, Baylor will attempt to qualify for their first bowl game since joining the Big 12. The Bears do have a stud in quarterback Robert Griffin, who was sidelined in the 3rd game last season with a torn ACL. If he returns to form, the Bears will have a puncher's chance of picking up some wins against the Big 12 underbelly (Kansas, Kansas St, and Texas A&M all come to Waco), and could play in their first bowl game since 1994.

Big 10 Recap: 2005-2009

Thus far, in our offseason half-decade look back, we've examined the ACC and Big East. Now we move toward the mid-west and the Big 10 (11).

First off, here are the combined Big 10 standings from 2005-2009.While the Trojans from Southern California get a great deal of the national pub for 'dominating' their conference, its clear the Buckeyes have also been on quite a roll over the last 5 years. Ohio State is 7 games clear of their closest competitor (Penn State), and their worst finish in that span has been a tie for first. Minnesota and Indiana are the lone Big 10 schools to not post a winning conference record in the past 5 seasons. The Golden Gophers finished 4-4 in 2005, while the Hoosiers best finishes were consecutive 3-5 marks in 2006 and 2007. Two teams have gone winless in league play, Illinois in 2005 and Minnesota in 2007, and only one team has gone unbeaten (Ohio State in 2006). Besides Ohio State, Penn State is the only Big 10 team to not have a losing record since 2005. Their worst finish was 4-4 in 2007.

Now here is the standard deviation of each team's conference record (in wins). Teams are ranked from the most inconsistent to the least.The most inconsistent Big 10 team in the past 5 years has been Michigan. The Wolverines were 18-6 in league play from 2005-2007, but are just 3-13 since. The second most inconsistent team is Illinois. In the past 5 years, the Illini have a winless conference campaign on their ledger as well as a second place conference finish that earned them a Rose Bowl berth. The most consistent Big 10 team has also been the best team. Ohio State finished 7-1 four times in the past 5 seasons, and in the other year went 8-0.

Now here is each team's point differential in conference play since 2005.These numbers line up pretty well with the actual standings. Ohio State once again stands as the most dominant Big 10 team, outscoring their conference foes by over 19 points per game since 2005.

With this being the end of the decade, here's the tally of conference titles.Please note that this does not include shared titles. Iowa is conspicuously absent from this list despite tying for a pair of titles in 2002 and 2005. The real travesty is that the 2002 undefeated Big 10 team never got to face off against the undefeated Buckeyes from the same season. I bet you had forgotten about the pair of titles won by Purdue and Illinois at the beginning of this past decade.

And finally, what was the biggest takeway from the 00 decade in the Big 10?
I would say it was the death and subsequent resurrection of Penn State football. If you asked most football fans in the middle of the 2004 season if Joe Pa would still be coaching at the dawn of the next decade, the answer would likely be 'absolutely not'. Penn State was 16-24 in the Big 10 from 2000-2004 (26-33 overall) with just a single bowl appearance and had lost 13 of 16 Big 10 games. Since then, Penn State is 29-11 in the Big 10 and 51-13 overall with 5 consecutive bowl appearances and a pair of conference titles.

Big 10 SDPI

On our sojourn through the 2009 college football season we now head west, to the Big 10. Don't look now, but the Big 10 may have been the best conference in 2009. Here's the link to last year's SDPI post on the Big 10.

As usual, this first paragraph will explain how SDPI is calculated. So if you want the meat of this article skip on down. In the 2009 Big 10 regular season, conference play only, the average Big 10 team gained and allowed 2843.273 yards. The standard deviation for yards gained (offense) was 287.49 yards. The standard deviation for yards allowed (defense) was 428.63 yards. Illinois gained 2825 yards and allowed 3163 yards. Their offensive SDPI was -0.06 = [(2825-2843.273)/287.49]. Their defensive SDPI was -0.75 = [(2843.273-3163)/428.63]. Their total SDPI was -0.81. This number ranked 9th in the Big 10.

To refresh your memory, here are the 2009 Big 10 standings.
Now here are the 2009 Big 10 SDPI standings. The standings are sorted by total SDPI with ranking for each category (out of 11 teams) in parentheses.There's not a great deal of disconnect between the actual and SDPI standings. I suppose the biggest difference is Penn State. The Nittany Lions ranked as the best team according to SDPI, yet they lost to the 2 teams that finished directly ahead of them in the standings, at home no less. No ranking system is perfect, but it should be noted that in their other 6 conference games, Penn State was very dominant, winning by an average of 20.5 points per game. Meanwhile, Ohio State lost to Purdue and made up for their modest yardage differential by leading the conference in turnover margin (+12 in league play) and scoring 4 non-offensive touchdowns, including 3 in their win over Wisconsin. Iowa was the master of winning ugly. Their 6 Big 10 wins came by an average of 9.2 points. Iowa and Ohio State are underrated by this system primarily because their defenses were so good (just ask Oregon and Georgia Tech) and because this system does not give any weight to special teams or turnovers, 2 key elements that can swing any football game. Conversely, Penn State is a little overrated because outside of those 2 contests (and the defense actually played very well against Iowa), the Nittany Lions were not really challenged in Big 10 play.

Conference Superlatives

Best Offense: Penn State 1.26
When they weren't being suffocated by the league's 2 best defenses (508 combined yards against Ohio State and Iowa), the Lions carved up Big 10 defenses to the tune of nearly 450 yards per game.

Worst Offense: Minnesota -1.67
Can't we all just admit you made a mistake in letting Glen Mason go? At least when the Gophers were a fledgling Big 10 team, they were fun to watch. Remember Laurence Maroney, Marion Barber, and Gary Russell? To be fair, the Gophers were without super star receiver Eric Decker for the last half of their Big 10 schedule. However, the Gophers actually averaged more yards per game over their last 3 conference games (326) than their first 5 (277) when Decker was healthy.

Best Defense: Ohio State 1.45
At this point, its only surprising when Ohio State doesn't field the best defense in the Big 10. The Buckeyes narrowly edged Iowa for this honor, allowing 11 fewer yards over the course of 8 Big 10 games.

Worst Defense: Michigan -1.36
Oh, how the mighty have fallen. It should be noted that Michigan was 10th last season (ahead of only Indiana). Rich Rod has now presided over the 2 worst Michigan defenses in the program's history.

What's in Store for Next Year?
Surprise, surprise. The favorite for next year according to all of the preseason magazines and this blogger extraordinaire will be Ohio State. Ohio State is seemingly underrated by SDPI each season thanks to Tressel's ultra-conservative nature. The Buckeyes take very few risks on offense and usually rank in the bottom half of the Big 10 in yards per game. However, they create a lot of turnovers and use their fine special teams to produce a field position advantage (or actual defensive or special teams scores) that help them win games. The chart below illustrates what I'm referring too. When this happens consistently over the course of time, it's a trend. If Indiana or Purdue or Minnesota does it for one season, it's a fluke and they are not likely to be as fortunate the next season. Judging from past returns, Ohio State will probably field a mid-level Big 10 offense in 2010, but with help from a superb defense and special teams play, should finish at or near the top of the league in scoring. The only issue standing against the Buckeyes and yet another Big 10 title is their road schedule. While the Buckeyes get key rivals Penn State and Michigan at home, they must travel to Madison to take on the Badgers and Iowa City to take on the Hawkeyes. Those 2 teams are your 2 best bets to dethrone the Buckeyes. Iowa loses some key players from their fantastic defense, including leading tackler linebacker Pat Angerer, but should be poised to do their best Ohio State-lite impersonation and win a lot of low-scoring blue collar battles. SDPI saw Wisconsin as the 2nd best team in the Big 10 last season. With the emergence of quarterback Scott Tolzien, receiver Nick Toon, and tight end Garrett Graham the Badgers finally had a passing offense to compliment their always potent running game. Graham has exhausted his eligibility, but Tolzien and Toon remain along with running back John Clay who rushed for over 1500 yards last season. Elsewhere in the Big 10, Penn State should be bowl bound again, but will likely struggle to compete with the league's elite thanks to the loss senior quarterback Daryll Clark. Purdue was much better than their record in Danny Hope's first season as coach and could return to the postseason for the first time since 2007 despite the loss of senior quarterback Joe Elliott. The rest of the league is very muddled. Michigan seemed to be back on track early in 2009 behind hot-shot quarterback Tate Forcier, yet the Wolverines still finished only 9th in the league in offense to go along with their poor showing on defense. Still, its Michigan, so a 3rd straight bowl-less winter would be unthinkable. Minnesota has been playing like the worst team in the Big 10 for a few years now, and their actual record may end up matching it in 2010. Northwestern will likely take a step back after losing what amounted to their entire offense in the person of quarterback Mike Kafka. Illinois has and always will be an enigma. After a solid performance in 2008 than belied their poor conference record, the Illini backed it up with a putrid showing in both categories in 2009. Who knows what the Zooker has in store for us in 2010? Indiana has typically been the league's whipping boy, but the Hooisers showed signs of life in 2009, losing 3 conference games by a combined 7 points. With a senior quarterback at the helm, they could get back to a bowl for the 2nd time in 4 seasons.

Big East Recap: 2005-2009

A few weeks ago we looked at the last half-decade in the ACC. Now we'll move to the league the ACC plundered and left for dead in the mid-00's, the Big East.

First off, here are the combined Big East standings from 2005-2009.I was a little surprised West Virginia still has the best league record since 2005. In the 2 seasons Bill Stewart has been at the helm, the Mountaineers have continued to play well in the league, going 10-4. Against teams not named Cincinnati, the Mountaineers are 10-2 in that span. In fact, of the Mountaineers 8 league losses in the past 5 seasons, 7 have come to either Cincinnati (2), Pitt (2), or South Florida (3). The other loss came to what used to be known as Louisville. After winning 14 of their last 15 conference games, the Bearcats from Cincinnati rose up to take the silver medal. West Virginia is the only Big East team to not have a losing record since 2005. Not surprisingly, Syracuse is the only Big East team to not have a winning record since 2005.

Now here is the standard deviation of each team's conference record (in wins). Teams are ranked from the most inconsistent to the least.The most inconsistent team has been Louisville. From 2005-2006, the Cardinals went 11-3 in Big East play and seemed poised to be a national player. Since then, they are 5-16 in league play, besting only Syracuse over that period (3-18). Speaking of the Orange, they are the most consistent Big East team over the past 5 seasons. After going 0-7 in league play in 2005, the Orange have been remarkably consistent since, notching a single Big East win in each season. West Virginia has also been very consistent, following up their 7-0 campaign in 2005 with 4 straight 5-2 league records.

Now here is each team's point differential in conference play since 2005.In this methodology, the Mountaineers come out head and shoulders above every other Big East team. Their point differential is nearly 300 points better than 2nd place Rutgers. Teams 3-5 are clustered very closely together, with only 11 points separating 3rd place Pitt from 5th place South Florida. The main reason why Cincinnati is so far ahead of South Florida in the actual standings (+6 games) despite having a nearly identical scoring differential is their performance in one-score games. The Bearcats are 11-6 in one-score conference games since 2005, while the Bulls are only 2-9.

With this being the end of the decade, here's the tally of conference titles.
And finally, what was the biggest takeway from the 00 decade in the Big East?
History is no barrier to success, particularly if no one in the conference has a great history. Of the 8 current Big East teams, Pitt and Syracuse are the only 2 that can claim a national title. Pitt has 6 with their most recent coming in 1976, while Syracuse can claim the 1959 title. At the beginning of this decade, Rutgers was a perennial doormat, Cincinnati and Louisville were on the outside looking in at big money leagues as members of Conference USA, South Florida was still playing IAA ball, and Connecticut had just made the jump to IA. West Virginia had some moderate success under Jim Carlen, Bobby Bowden, and Don Nehlen, but nothing like the spoils they enjoyed under Rich Rodriguez from 2003-2007. I didn't include them in the above table, but West Virginia was actually the co-champions in both 2003 and 2004, giving them a technical run of 4 titles in 5 seasons. Who knows what the future holds for the Big East, but the conference appears to be in much better shape than was imagined when re-allignment began in 2004.

Big East SDPI

Moving right along through major college football, we come to our second conference, the Big East. If you want to remember how clairvoyant I was last year at this time, here's the link to the Big East SDPI review from 2009. Before we jump into this edition of SDPI, let me go ahead and warn you to be sure you are sitting down. One of the results will certainly shock. I almost dropped my abacus, and certainly checked and rechecked my work when I saw it.

As usual, this first paragraph will explain how SDPI is calculated. So if you want the meat of this article skip on down. In the 2009 Big East regular season, conference play only, the average Big East team gained and allowed 2560 yards. The standard deviation for yards gained (offense) was 476.04 yards. The standard deviation for yards allowed (defense) was 335.60 yards. Connecticut gained 2957 yards and allowed 3208 yards. Their offensive SDPI was 0.83 = [(2957-2560)/476.04]. Their defensive SDPI was -1.93 = [(2560-3208)/335.60]. Their total SDPI was -1.10. This number ranked 6th in the Big East.

To refresh your memory, here are the 2009 Big East standings.Now here are the 2009 Big East SDPI standings. The standings are sorted by total SDPI with ranking for each category (out of 8 teams) in parentheses.Obviously, the huge shocker I was referring to earlier is the ranking of the Orange from Syracuse. Thanks to a superb defensive ranking, the Orange rated out as the 3rd best team in the league despite winning only a single conference games all season. How is that possible? Is the ranking system screwed up, or was Syracuse really better than you thought they were? I'm inclined to say that the Orange were a little better than you thought, especially on defense. On offense, the Orange were nothing special, ranking 6th in the league, ahead of only Louisville and Rutgers (!? more on the Knights later). In addition to this, the Orange offense under former Duke hoopster Greg Paulus repeatedly put the defense in harms way via the turnover. The Orange had the worst turnover margin in Big East play (see chart below) by a pretty healthy margin. Paulus threw 10 picks in 7 Big East games (versus just 6 touchdowns). Here are just a few examples of how the offense (and occasionally the special teams) hung the defense out to dry. In their Big East opener, the Orange held the South Florida Bulls to 333 yards of offense, but also committed 7 turnovers, including an interception that was run back for a touchdown in a 14 point loss. In mid-November against fellow cellar dweller Louisville, the Orange held the Cardinals to 151 yards of offense, but botched an extra point and gave up a huge 44-yard punt return late in the game that set up the winning score to allow the Cardinals to escape with a 10-9 win. In their season finale against Connecticut, the Orange outgained the Huskies by over 100 yards (489-377), but allowed Connecticut to return both a kickoff and a fumble for a touchdown in a 56-31 loss. Later on, we'll discuss how likely it is that Syracuse can maintain their solid defensive play in 2010. Elsewhere in the Big East, Cincinnati and Pitt were almost as close statistically as they were on the field in a game the Bearcats won thanks to a missed Pitt extra point. SDPI likes the Panthers just a hair more, but statistically speaking, its a wash. One other surprise in the SDPI rankings is the lowly position occupied by Rutgers. Only Louisville ranks lower in SDPI.

Conference Superlatives

Best Offense: Cincinnati 1.71
Brian Kelly's Bearcats moved the ball at will against everyone in the Big East. They opened the season with a 564-yard and 45-point performance at Rutgers and continued their domination no matter who played quarterback. The 2nd best offense, Connecticut, was less than half as prolific as the Bearcats.

Worst Offense: Rutgers -1.17
While they were not historically bad (the -1.17 is the highest lowest offensive rating for any team in 2009--hooray), the Knights did lay a few eggs in 2009. They netted 130 yards of offense in their blowout loss to Syracuse, and managed only 218 yards in the regular season finale against West Virginia.

Best Defense: Pitt 1.28
Not surprisingly, in their 2 losses, the Panthers had their worst defensive showing against Big East foes. They allowed 370 yards per game to West Virginia and Cincinnati, but only permitted 278 yards per game in their 5 Big East wins.

Worst Defense: Connecticut -1.93
Part of the culprit for this low ranking is the unholy 711 yards they allowed to Cincinnati. Still, even without that monstrosity weighing them down, the Huskies would have been the worst defense in the Big East (but it would have been a little closer).

What's in Store for Next Year?
So now I want to take a closer look at Syracuse. As previously mentioned, the Orange boasted a significant statistical jump on defense. How likely are they to maintain and perhaps build on that performance? I have calculated SDPI for the seasons from 2005-2009, so I may be able to answer that question. The jump Syracuse experienced on defense in SDPI from 2008 to 2009 was over 2 standard deviations (2.02). They went from 7th (2nd to last) in the conference to 2nd. How often has this occurred in the Big East in the recent past? Probably more than you would think. 3 teams have seen their defensive SDPI jump at least 1.5 standard deviations from one season to the next. In fact, it seems to happen at least once a year. The table below lists those jumps, along with conference ranks in defense for each season. As you can see, the leap made by Syracuse was hardly unprecedented. Cincinnati and Pitt both made larger single season leaps in 2006 and 2007 respectively. Now the big question is, what happened in the season after the large improvements? And the answer in the table below is not exactly encouraging for Syracuse fans. Cincinnati and Pitt experienced drops in performance of a little more than a single standard deviation, while Connecticut fell off the map. The Huskies boasted the league's number one defense in 2008 and the worst defense in 2009. One rudimentary way to guesstimate how Syracuse will do on defense in 2010 is to look at how many starters they will return and compare it to the number of starters these other defenses brought back. While looking at returning starters is inherently flawed, as defenses must deal with injuries and different personnel groupings over the course of a season, it can give us a reasonable place to start. Cincinnati returned 7 starters from their 2006 defense, Pitt returned only 5 from their 2007 defense, and Connecticut returned 6 from their 2008 defense. While we won't know until late in the summer how many starters Syracuse will return in 2010, only 2 of their top-12 tacklers were seniors. On the one hand, while this means the Orange will have a great deal of experience returning in 2010, looking at the other teams that improved significantly on defense in one season means the Orange were likely playing over their heads in 2009 and regression should be imminent. Still, if the offense can cut down on the turnovers, the Orange stand a very good chance of returning to postseason play for the first time since 2004. What about the other team in the New York/New Jersey area, the Scarlet Knights from Rutgers? While the Knights played in their 5th consecutive bowl (4th straight win), they were far from a dominant Big East outfit. In league play they were outscored by 2 points on the season and outgained by over 500 yards. The Knights were fantastic at winning the turnover battle, finishing +4 within the league and +20 overall. The Knights also scored 9 non-offensive touchdowns, which helped them to win games despite their offensive struggles. The Knights were breaking in a freshman quarterback in 2009, so the offense will likely be able to move out of the cellar, but on the whole the Knights enjoyed some good fortune that is unlikely to be repeated in 2010. With a non-conference slate that includes Norfolk State, Tulane, FIU, and Army, a 6th straight bowl bid is likely, but barring significant improvement, the Knights are not legitimate threats to win the conference. That designation likely belongs to the usual suspects--Cincinnati and Pitt. Butch Jones followed Brian Kelly at Central Michigan and won 2 MAC titles in 3 years there. He'll have an excellent quarterback in Zach Collaros (much like he had in Dan LeFevour at CMU) to keep the offense humming along. Pitt loses their starting quarterback, but they do return arguably the best running back in the league in super sophomore Dion Lewis. All the diminutive Lewis did as a freshman was rush for 1799 yards, closing the year with 8 straight 100-yard games. The biggest question mark in the Big East in 2010 for me will be Louisville. Steve Kragthorpe promptly took the Big East champion Cardinals and instead of wrapping the proverbial sports car around a tree at 100 mph, he simply neglected to change the oil and decided to fill the engine with 83 octane gas. The chart below shows Louisville's SDPI for the past 5 seasons. The first 2 were Bobby Petrino's doing, and the final 3 were the woeful Steve Kragthorpe era. Winning at Louisville is certainly not unprecedented, but Charlie Strong will have some house to clean in his first season.

ACC Recap: 2005-2009

Last season I took a look at how each of the 11 Division IA conferences had played out since 2005 (the last year of major realignment). We're gonna do the same thing this offseason with a few minor tweaks and also with a little commentary on the decade that was. So without further adieu, I present the our first installment: the ACC.

First off, here are combined ACC standings from 2005-2009.

No real surprise at the top. Virginia Tech has won 2 ACC titles in the 5 seasons since the league split into 2 divisions, and has made 3 ACC Championship Game appearances. The 2nd place team may surprise a few folks. Georgia Tech has not had a losing season since division play began in the ACC, and the Jackets own the other 2 Coastal Division titles not captured by the Hokies. Boston College may also be a surprise to some folks at number 3, but they are the only ACC team besides Virgina Tech to not have a league record worse than 5-3 since 2005. 3 teams have yet to post a winning record in league play since 2005, and they all reside in the state of North Carolina (and neither of them is Wake Forest). Duke had their best season since division play began in 2009 when they posted a 3-5 record. North Carolina and NC State have both maxed out at 4 conference wins.

Now here is the standard deviation of each team's conference record (in wins). Teams are ranked from the most inconsistent to the least.

It's a close race at the top with Miami, Virginia, and Maryland ranking as the most inconsistent teams. Each has competed (though never won) a division title--Miami was second in 2005, Maryland was second in 2006, and Virginia was second in 2007, and each has also finished at or near the cellar--Miami was ahead of only Duke in 2007, Virginia was last in 2008, and Maryland was last in 2009. The most consistent team has been Boston College. The Eagles have won 5 league games each season, except for 2007 when they won 6.

Now here is each team's point differential in conference play since 2005.

No surprise that the team with the best record (Virgina Tech) also has the best point differential by far. What is shocking is that Clemson is safely in 2nd place, with more than double the differential of 3rd place Georgia Tech. I think its safe to say Clemson has been a little unlucky in the close game department. Since 2005, the Tigers are only 6-12 in one-score games. If a few of those games had gone the other way, the Tigers could be looking at more than one Atlantic Division Championship.

With this being the end of the decade, here's the tally of conference and division titles.



And finally, what was the biggest takeway from the 00 decade in the ACC?
It's pretty simple, the fall of the mighty Florida State dynasty. In the 1990's, Florida State went 62-2 against the rest of the ACC. They had conference win streaks of 29 and 18 in that span. If we add in the first half of this decade, when the Seminoles still went a solid 34-6, Florida State was 96-8 in their first 13 seasons in the ACC. They had only lost a single time at home, and had never lost more than twice in a single season. They had won 11 of 13 conference titles. Not a bad run. In the last half of this decade, as we've already pointed out, the Seminoles went 21-19. They lost more than twice as many games in less than half the time. In fact, in two separate two seasons spans, they lost as many or more games as they did in their first 13 years in the league. From 2005-2006, they lost 8 games, and from 2006-2007, they lost 9. However, perhaps more amazing is the fact that Florida State has lost 9 conference home games since 2005, after losing just once at home from 1992-2004. It's highly doubtful that Florida State can ever resume the dominance they enjoyed in the 1990's and early 2000's, but a change was likely needed at the top. A team with the resources of Florida State should not struggle to win more than half of its home league games.

ACC SDPI

After a brief respite to recharge my batteries, your humble narrator has returned. This offseason will be a lot like the last few here at Statistically Speaking. Each conference will get the SDPI treatment (starting alphabetically with the BCS leagues), and we'll also do another multi-year review of each conference. So let's jump right in, shall we? We'll begin with a league very near and dear to my heart, the ACC. If you want a refresher on just what SDPI is trying to measure, here's the link to last year's article on the ACC.

As usual, this first paragraph will explain how SDPI is calculated. So if you want the meat of this article skip on down. In the 2009 ACC regular season, conference play only, championship games excluded, the average ACC team gained and allowed 2913.167 yards. The standard deviation for yards gained (offense) was 542.56 yards. The standard deviation for yards allowed (defense) was 436.64 yards. Maryland gained 2379 yards and allowed 3108 yards. Their offensive SDPI was -0.98 = [(2379-2913.167)/542.56]. Their defensive SDPI was -0.45 = [(2913.167-3108)/436.64]. Their total SDPI was -1.43. This number ranked 9th in the ACC.

To refresh your memory, here are the 2009 ACC standings.

Atlantic
Clemson 6-2
BC 5-3
Fla St 4-4
Wake 3-5
NC St 2-6
Maryland 1-7

Coastal
Ga Tech 7-1
Va Tech 6-2
Miami 5-3
UNC 4-4
Duke 3-5
Virginia 2-6

Now here are the 2009 ACC SDPI standings. The standings are sorted by division by total SDPI with ranking for each category (out of 12 teams) in parentheses.

Offense Defense Total

Atlantic

Clemson 0.17 (7) 1.15 (2) 1.33 (3)

Wake 0.86 (2) -0.75 (10) 0.11 (5)
Fla St 1.23 (1) -1.63 (12) -0.40 (8)
BC -1.04 (11) 0.15 (6) -0.89 (9)
NC St 0.35 (6) -1.41 (11) -1.06 (10)
Maryland -0.98 (9) -0.45 (9) -1.43 (11)

Coastal
Va Tech 0.61 (5) 1.56 (1) 2.17 (1)
Ga Tech 0.85 (4) 0.63 (4) 1.48 (2)
Miami 0.85 (3) 0.25 (5) 1.10 (4)
UNC -1.00 (10) 1.07 (3) 0.07 (6)
Duke 0.04 (8) -0.39 (8) -0.35 (7)
Virginia -1.93 (12) -0.19 (7) -2.12 (12)

As you can see, there's not a great deal of disconnect between the actual standings and the SDPI standings. According to SDPI, the 2nd and 3rd best teams in the conference faced off in the title game with the 2nd best team walking away with the Orange Bowl bid. SDPI sees Virginia Tech as the best team in the conference, but the Hokies had to play at Georgia Tech, where they lost a close game in what eventually decided the Coastal Division race. The Coastal Divsion was far stronger than the Atlantic with Virginia Tech, Georgia Tech, and Miami all rating out as one standard deviation above average, while Clemson was the lone team from the Atlantic to rate as one standard deviation better than average. The 2 teams the numbers and the actual standings disagree on are Boston College and Wake Forest. The Eagles won 4 of their 5 conference games by a combined 16 points, and each of their 3 league losses came by at least 18 points. Over their 8 league games, Boston College was outscored by 22 points, indicating their record was a little inflated. Meanwhile, Wake Forest boasted perhaps their best offense in school history behind senior quarterback Riley Skinner. However, the Deacons defense had equal trouble stopping opponents and Wake Forest lost 3 league games by a combined 7 points (including 2 in OT) resulting in their first losing season since 2005.

Conference Superlatives

Best Offense: Florida State 1.23
The Seminoles were the lone ACC team with an offense greater than one standard deviation above average. Florida State gained over 400 yards in 7 of their 8 conference games, missing that mark only once; against Clemson. As we'll see in a moment, that offense had to be good.

Worst Offense: Virginia -1.93
The Cavs offense was nearly one whole standard deviation worse than the 2nd worst offense (Boston College). The Cavs never gained more than 298 yards in ACC play, and during a 4-game stretch from mid-October to early-November, the Cavs averaged 186 yards per game. All the more bizarre, is that immediately before that span of suckitude, the Cavs hammered Indiana to the tune of 536 yards and 47 points in an easy 40-point win.

Best Defense: Virginia Tech 1.56
Ho-hum. Another season, another great defense for Virginia Tech. Kudos to Bud Foster.

Worst Defense: Florida State -1.63
The Seminoles gave back all the strides they made on offense by posting perhaps their worst defense in the Bobby Bowden era. Florida State gave up yards in bunches to anyone and everyone. Add to that the fact that the ACC was not an extremely offensive league, and you have the resume of perhaps the worst BCS-conference defense this side of Washington State.

What's in Store for Next Year?
Atlantic Division:
Florida State and Clemson should be your prohibitive favorites heading into the fall of 2010. The Seminoles bring back a ton of talent from the league's best offense with the lone major loss being leading receiver Rod Owens. While Owens did lead the team in catches and yards, he only hauled in 61 balls for 729 yards, indicating Christian Ponder did a great job of spreading the ball around. New head coach Jimbo Fisher proved he could bring the offense back around, now if he can just do something to being the defense back to 'average' Florida State could go back to being a force in the ACC. Fresh off their first Atlantic Division title, Clemson loses 3 of its biggest playmakers on offense (running back CJ Spiller, receiver Jacoby Ford, and tight end Michael Palmer), but does bring back an experienced quarterback and 4/5ths of the starting offensive line. Plus, for the last half decade or so, Clemson has made their mark on defense. From 2006-2009, Clemson finished 2nd, 1st, 2nd, and 2nd in the ACC in defensive SDPI. They're like a poor man's Virginia Tech on that side of the ball. Whatever kinks they may have to work out on offense, Clemson should still be in contention for another division title in 2010. Elsewhere, this may finally be the year Boston College drops from the top of the Atlantic standings. As mentioned earlier, despite their 5 league wins (won at least 5 league games in all 5 years in the ACC), the Eagles were a shell of their former selves. Take a look at the graph below that shows the yearly SDPI of Boston College in the ACC.As you can see, the defense, with the exception of 2008 has maintained a performance level either a little above or below average. With Matt Ryan at the helm from 2005-2007, the offense steadily improved, peaking with a phenomenal year in 2007. However, since Ryan's matriculation, the offense has fallen off not one, but two separate cliffs. The Eagles were not a good football team last year, and barring substantial improvement, should see their record fall more in line with their unimpressive SDPI numbers. The other 3 teams in the division are very much a mystery. As mentioned earlier, Wake Forest boasted perhaps their best offense ever, or at least in the 'modern era' of college football. Unfortunately, that offense loses its trigger man, quarterback Riley Skinner and 4 starters along the offensive line. Wake was a little better than their 3-5 conference record last season, but getting back to a bowl game is not a sure thing. NC State was a huge disappointment last season, and the majority of the blame can once again be laid at the feet of the defense. In Tom O'Brien's 3 seasons as head coach, the Wolfpack have ranked last, last, and 2nd to last in defensive SDPI. I guess an optimist would say 2nd to last equates to marginal improvement. I would agree, and then ask them which Bush campaign they worked on (00 or 04). NC State has a very talented quarterback in Russell Wilson, who has 2 years of eligibility remaining. They would be wise not to waste those years forcing Wilson to win shootout after shootout in the hopes of going 6-6. And finally we have Maryland. The Terps hit rock bottom in 2009, winning only one conference game for the first time since 1998. One of the biggest mysteries, at least to me, is how Ralph Friedgen was able to win 31 games (including an ACC title) in his first 3 years at a program with just one winning season in the previous decade, yet only win 35 games in the next 6 years. Maryland was very young on offense last season, so despite the loss of a mediocre senior quarterback in Chris Turner, the Terps should return to mediocrity, and in this day and age in college football, that means a potential bowl bid.

Coastal Division:
This is where the action should be in 2010 with 4 teams having legitimate shots at the division crown. North Carolina's defense was legit last year, finishing 3rd in the conference in SDPI behind Virginia Tech and Clemson. Almost everyone returns in 2010, so if the offense can improve upon its rather dismal showing, the Tar Heels could take their first division crown. Paul Johnson has proven his triple option attack can succeed in a BCS conference. Unfortunately, the defense let the Yellow Jackets down at times last season. Things won't get any easier in 2010 with the exodus of 4 players with eligibility remaining. Safety Morgan Burnett, defensive end Derrick Morgan, running back Jonathan Dwyer, and receiver Demaryius Thomas will all likely be on NFL rosters in the fall. Thankfully, the Jackets do not have to replace the most important member of their triple option offense, quarterback Josh Nesbitt, who will be in Atlanta for one more season. Since effectively razing their team in 2007 (see the graph below), the Hurricanes have been improving and could finally grab their first division title in 2010.The program was on a steady downward course at the end of Larry Coker's reign, and in Randy Shannon's first year (2007) hit rock bottom. The U has improved on both sides of the ball in both seasons since and with a talented young quarterback (Jacory Harris), the pieces are in place for a run at the division title in 2010. Even with those 3 teams in the mix, its hard to bet against the 'old money' program in the new ACC. Virginia Tech has won the Coastal Division 3 times in the 5 years the ACC has had the division format. In the 2 seasons they did not advance to the ACC Championship Game, the Hokies finished just one game back of the eventual division winner. 2009 marked the first time since I have been calculating SDPI that Duke did not finish dead last in the conference. That's a testament to head coach David Cutcliffe. The big problem for Cut and the Blue Devils in 2010 is that they must break in a new quarterback to replace the departed Thaddeus Lewis who threw for 10,065 yards and 67 touchdowns in his 4 seasons in Durham. The other problem for Duke is they play in the Coastal Division and must face the aforementioned Four Horsemen of the ACC each and every season. Once again, Duke will be undermanned, and well coached as they journey the ACC. The only other ACC team besides Florida State that will be starting over with a new coach in 2010 is Virginia, who plucked Mike London from nearby Richmond. London guided the Spiders to 2 playoff appearances in 2 seasons as coach, including a run to the National Championship in 2008. London was previously the defensive coordinator here at Virginia, holding that title in the 2006 and 2007 season. In those seasons, Virginia ranked 4th and 3rd respectively in the ACC in defensive SDPI. In the 2 seasons, since the Cavs have ranked 7th both times in that category. London clearly is a solid if not excellent defensive mind, but so was Al Groh. If London is to be truly successful at Charlottesville, he will have to fix an offense that has not been better than average since Matt Schaub left after the 2003 season.

Bowl Preview IV

BCS National Championship Game
January 7
Alabama vs Texas
Alabama -4
The curtain goes down on the college football season on Thursday night, and for the first time since 2005, we will be guaranteed and undefeated national champion. This game has a lot of interesting factoids. For starters, the SEC will be seeking its 4th straight BCS National Title with its 3rd different university. The last non-SEC school to win the national championship? Texas of course. Mark Ingram of Alabama will attempt to become the first Heisman Trophy winner to also don a national championship ring since Matt Leinart in 2004. Colt McCoy of Texas will attempt to become only the 2nd quarterback ever to win 4 bowl games. Mack Brown and Nick Saban will be seeking to win their 2nd national title each. The winner of this game will also join Ohio State from 2002 and Boise State from this season as the only 14-0 teams in IA history. So with that out of the way, who's gonna win? In a somewhat shocking development, neither of these teams finished as the best team in their conference according to my SDPI statistic. SDPI is far from a perfect measure of team strength, but its very interesting that neither undefeated conference champion finished as the best in their league. Alabama finished second behind Florida in the SEC, but humbled the Gators in the SEC Championship Game. Texas actually finished 3rd in the Big 12, behind Oklahoma and Texas Tech. As always, Tech's numbers are inflated by the type of offense they play, but the Longhorns still finished well behind Oklahoma, a team they beat on the field. So how did these teams win their respective conferences? Alabama finished a little behind Florida in both offense (5th in the SEC) and defense (2nd in the SEC), but led the conference in turnover margin at +12. They also won both one-score conference games they played in (versus Tennessee and Auburn), and then used a fantastic gameplan to upset the Gators to earn a spot in Pasadena. Texas finished a little behind Oklahoma in both offense (5th in the Big 12) and defense (3rd in the Big 12), but they also led the league in turnover margin (+11), non-offensive touchdowns (11), and defeated Oklahoma in their only one-score game in the regular season (won despite being slightly outgained thanks to a +2 turnover margin). As you may have heard, Texas played another one-score game in the Big 12 Championship Game, narrowly edging Nebraska on a field goal as time expired. If we go by resumes, Alabama is certainly the superior team. They have beaten 3 top-15 teams (Virgina Tech, LSU, and Florida), with 2 coming at a neutral site. 9 of their 13 wins were over teams with winning records, and those 9 teams all came from BCS conferences. Texas has beaten 2 teams in the top-25 (Oklahoma State and Nebraska) with both coming either on the road or on a neutral site. I'll also give Texas credit for beating Oklahoma, a team much better than their 8-5 record would indicate. All told, Texas defeated 8 bowl teams (7 finished with winning records), but only 6 of those bowl teams hailed from BCS conferences. Still, Texas is probably a little undervalued because their last game happened to be one of the worst they have played all season, while Alabama's last game was arguably their best. Texas at +4 is a good value. Alabama is probably not as good as they showed against Florida, and conversely Texas is probably not as bad, particularly on offense, as they showed against Nebraska. If you're feeling extra lucky, try the Longhorns on the moneyline.

Bowl Preview III

We have entered the stretch run. Only 4 games remain in the 2009-10 college football season. In this preview, we'll tackle 3 of them. Look for the BCS National Championship Preview on Wednesday night.

Fiesta Bowl
January 4
TCU vs Boise State
TCU -7
The 2 best mid-major teams from 2009 duke it out in a rematch of last year's Poinsettia Bowl. One season after dominating the Mountain West, but falling in a close game to Utah, the TCU Horned Frogs once again dominated their conference brethren, in addition to defeating a pair of ACC teams in the non-conference portion of their schedule. Had things broken a little differently, the Horned Frogs could very well have become the first non-BCS team to play for the mythical national title. As it stands, the Horned Frogs will have to settle for a potential number 2 ranking at the end of the season. The Horned Frogs boasted both the best offense and best defense in the Mountain West. They were challenged only twice in a pair of road games at Clemson in the non-conference and at Air Force that they won by a combined 7 points. Boise State is also undefeated (their 3rd undefeated regular season in 4 years under coach Chris Petersen), and while they dominated the WAC, this is arguably Boise's worst defense in Petersen's tenure. While it was still the best in the WAC, the Broncos allowed 3 conference opponents to score more than 30 points and 5 to score more than 20. In 2007 and 2008, only 4 WAC opponents scored more than 30 and 5 scored more than 20 against the Boise defense. The Broncos did of course famously crush Oregon in the non-conference portion of their schedule, but they also struggled to win on the road against a bowl-less 5-7 Tulsa team. TCU seems to have by far the superior team, and the Horned Frogs are likely the best mid-major team in the BCS era. Of course, Boise State is well coached and will likely have a great game plan and a few tricks up their sleeve. A Boise win would not be a total shocker, but the smart money is on the Horned Frogs.


Orange Bowl
January 5
Georgia Tech vs Iowa
Georgia Tech -5
Before their late-season losses to Northwestern and Ohio State, the Hawkeyes were the spitting image of Ohio State circa 2002. The Hawkeyes won close game after close game thanks to their superb defense, some blocked kicks, and timely if erratic play from quarterback Ricky Stanzi. Though they failed in their lofty goal of an undefeated season and Big 10 title, the Hawkeyes still have a shot at ending their season on a high note and earning some much needed respect for the Big 10. The other top defensive teams in the conference (Ohio State, Penn State, and Wisconsin) have all performed well in the bowl season. Ohio State held Oregon to its 2nd lowest yardage and point totals in their Rose Bowl upset. Penn State held LSU to its 2nd lowest yardage and 3rd lowest point total in their Capital One Bowl win. Wisconsin held Miami to its 2nd lowest point and yardage totals in their Champs Sports Bowl upset. Iowa boasted the 2nd best defense in all the Big 10, just a notch below Ohio State. The Georgia Tech offense was very good, but hardly elite in the ACC. The Yellow Jackets finished 4th in the league in both offense and defense on their way to victory in the ACC Championship Game. The ACC's champions have not fared well in BCS bowl games, going just 2-9 since the BCS was formed in 1998. Iowa's defense is legit, and the Hawkeyes should probably be favored. Don't be shocked if Iowa pulls the outright upset on Tuesday night.


GMAC Bowl
January 6
Central Michigan vs Troy
Central Michigan -3
How bad does the MAC need this one? Since Central Michigan won the Motor City Bowl over MTSU on December 26, 2006, the MAC has lost 14 consecutive bowl games. Some have been close (Bowling Green losing on a last second 2 point conversion to Idaho in this year's Humanitarian Bowl), and some have been the antithesis of close (Bowling Green losing by 56 to Tulsa in the 2007 GMAC Bowl), but all have been losses. Can the Chippewas end that streak? They are certainly the best candidate to do so. The Chips boasted the number one offense and number two defense in the MAC as they rolled to an undefeated conference season. They also managed to upset Michigan State outside the conference and hung tough with Arizona. Troy also finished unbeaten in their conference, cruising to at least a share of their 4 straight Sun Belt title. The Trojans finished with the top-ranked offense in the Sun Belt and the 4th best defense. Central Michigan will probably end the MAC's run of futility in what should be an entertaining game, but I wouldn't bet on it.

Bowl Preview II

Hope your holidays are treating you right, and I hope you've had the opportunity to catch at least a smattering of football in between meals and parties. Here now, is part deux of our little preview. Once again, your best bowl bets have asterisks and bold print. This preview covers games up through January 2nd.

Humanitarian Bowl
December 30
Bowling Green vs Idaho
Bowling Green -1
The Vandals from Idaho, had won 3 games in the first 2 seasons of head coach Robb Akey's tenure. They more than doubled that number this season, going 7-5 and qualifying for their 2nd ever bowl game and first since 1998. The Vandals also played in the Humanitarian Bowl that season and won as huge underdogs against Southern Miss. 2009 was a tale of 2 seasons for the Vandals. They began the season 6-1, with their lone loss coming at Washington. However, the schedule toughened up over the second half and the Vandals lost 4 of 5 with their lone win coming by a single point over Louisiana Tech. The offense actually improved over the second half of the season, as the Vandals averaged 494 yards per game in their last 5 after averaging 420 yards per game in their first 7. The defense on the other hand, was a different story. After allowing 364 yards per game through their 6-1 start, the Vandals allowed 509 yards per game in their 2nd half swoon. All told, the Vandals finished 8th in the conference in defense (ahead of only New Mexico State). It should also be noted that the WAC is not exactly known for its defensive acumen. Over in Ohio, Bowling Green followed a similar script en route to a 6-2 finish in the MAC. The Falcons, under first year coach Dave Clawson finished 11th in the 13-team MAC in defense, but made up for it by finishing 4th in offense. The amazing thing is last season, the team's strength were exactly the opposite as the Falcons boasted the 9th ranked offense, but 2nd ranked defense. Go figure that wacky MAC. The Falcons offense is centered around their explosive passing attack. With a great game, senior quarterback Tyler Sheehan could leave as the school's all-time leading passer (he needs 551 yards to reach the precipice). The Falcons also boast the nation's leading receiver (in terms of catches) in fellow senior Freddie Barnes. Barnes has 138 catches on the season, after catching 143 passes in his first 3 years at the school. This should be one of the more entertaining games of the bowl season featuring 2 teams with very good offenses, but lackluster defenses. If you're itching to make a play, take Bowling Green or have a look at the over (currently sitting at 68.5), but don't sink too much into this one.


*Holiday Bowl*
December 30
Arizona vs Nebraska
Arizona -1.5
Nebraska very nearly turned the BCS upside down and allowed an unsung interloper (either Cincinnati or TCU) to waltz into the title game. Alas, the officials put time back on the clock and Texas kicker Hunter Lawrence made a clutch kick to send the Longhorns to Pasadena. While Nebraska deserves all the credit in the world for hanging with the Horns, its clear their offense is one of the worst in the nation. With Joe Ganz at the helm last season, Nebraska boasted the 3rd best offense in the Big 12, and the top-ranked unit in the North. This season, Nebraska finished dead last in the Big 12 in offense. That's right, even behind Colorado. While the Buffs may have their numbers inflated by playing the worst defense in the Big 12 (Texas A&M), while Nebraska drew the best defense in one of their games against the South (Oklahoma), its accurate to say Nebraska was awful on offense. They did make up for it by featuring a stout defense that finished 2nd in the league. However, it was easy to see the team's shortcomings in the Big 12 Championship Game. Nebraska gained 106 yards over the course of the game and nearly won! That continued a season long trend. In 5 of their 6 Big 12 wins, Nebraska gained under 300 yards, pinning their hopes for victory entirely on the defense. The defense obliged more often than not, but that's usually not a winning strategy. A little further west, Arizona will be making their 2nd straight bowl appearance after taking a decade off. If the ball had bounced their way a few more times, the Wildcats could be playing in Pasadena on New Year's Day. They'll have to settle for their biggest bowl game in 11 years. Arizona was extremely balanced this season, finishing 4th in the Pac-10 in offense and 3rd in defense. Half of Arizona's losses this season came to teams currently ranked in the top-10 (Oregon and Iowa). The Wildcats are much better than you think and have steadily improved in each of Mike Stoops' 6 seasons as coach. Arizona should be favored by about 3 or 4 points, so getting them at nearly a pick 'em makes this one of your best bets of the bowl season.


Armed Forces Bowl
December 31
Houston vs Air Force
Houston -4.5
This is the rubber game in the historic Air Force/Houston rivalry. After never having played before last season, this is the 3rd meeting between these teams in 15 months. Air Force won the first game in September 2008 by 3. Houston won the bowl game last December by 6. For Air Force, this is their 3rd consecutive appearance in the Armed Forces Bowl. They dropped their first game to Cal and then fell to Houston as previously mentioned. In fact, the Falcons are seeking their first bowl victory since 2000. The Falcons were solidly the 4th best team in the Mountain West, behind the hydra of mid-major powers at the top of the league (BYU, TCU, and Utah). The Falcons managed only a 5th place finish in offense, but made up for it by fielding the best defense in the league this side of TCU. The Falcons also won the turnover battle quite handily, going +13 in the Mountain West play (tops in the league). The Falcons throw so few passes (139 attempts was more than only Navy) that interceptions are rare (only 3 all season). The Falcons are not a flashy team, but like their brethren at the Naval Academy, they win by not making mistakes. Meanwhile, the Houston Cougars win by outscoring their opponents. The Cougars finished number one in Conference USA in offense (by a large margin), but finished second to last in defense (ahead of only Memphis). Their lapses on defense cost them in games against UTEP and UCF which the Cougars lost despite scoring 41 and 32 points respectively. Their defense also let them down in the Conference USA Championship Game which they also lost despite scoring 32 points (4 turnovers did not help). The Falcons will be able to move the ball against the generous Cougar defense, but I don't think they will be able to score enough to actually win the game. Still, Houston is no stranger to failing as a favorite, particularly away from home. In addition to the 3 games already highlighted, the Cougars also needed an onside kick recovery to beat a bad Tulsa team by a point away from home. Astute wagerers will want no part of this game.


Sun Bowl
December 31
Oklahoma vs Stanford
Oklahoma -8
Oklahoma is a team that most computer rankings still regard rather highly despite their 7-5 record. This is because all their losses, save the Texas Tech game, were close. The Sooners lost to BYU, Miami, Texas, and Nebraska by a combined 12 points. In addition to the closeness of the losses, each loss, again save for the Tech game, came against teams currently ranked in the top-20. The Sooners also balanced their close losses with huge wins. They beat Tulsa by 45, Baylor by 26, Kansas by 22, Kansas State by 12, Texas A&M by 55, and Oklahoma State by 27. On a down by down basis, the Sooners were again amongst the best teams in the Big 12. They finished 3rd in the league in offense and boasted the league's number one defense. The Sooners did have interesting home/road splits though. In their 4 Big 12 home games, they averaged 513 yards per game. In their 3 Big 12 road games, they averaged 324 yards per game. The Sooners defense yielded 242 yards per game in their Big 12 home games and 345 in their Big 12 road games. Part of this difference is due to schedule strength. The Sooners faced Baylor and Texas A&M in half of their league home games, the 2 worst defenses in the league. On the road, the Sooners had to tangle with the best offense in the league, Texas Tech. Of course, they also got to deal with the league's worst offense (Nebraska) on the road, and while the Aggies from Texas A&M did have a deplorable defense, they also had an offense that finished 2nd in the league. The Sooners appear to be an extremely different team away from Norman. Unfortunately for the Sooners, this game is played in El Paso. Stanford put together a solid season and was actually in contention for the Rose Bowl until a late loss to Cal sealed their fate. Behind running back (and Heisman candidate) Toby Gerhart and freshman quarterback Andrew Luck, the Cardinal posted the 2nd best offense in the Pac-10 (behind only Oregon). They did have issues on defense, finishing 8th in that category, but the end result is the most wins (and first bowl bid) for the program since 2001. Obviously, I'm inclined to agree with the computers on the relative strength of Oklahoma. That being said, they do appear to be a far different (worse) team away from Norman. 8 points is entirely too much to lay against a solid Stanford team. Enjoy the Sun Bowl and save your money for better games.


Texas Bowl
December 31
Missouri vs Navy
Missouri -6.5
After losing so many key skill players from a team that had won consecutive Big 12 North titles, the Missouri Tigers figured to take a step back in 2008. It turns out, that step wasn't was far as many observers predicted. The Tigers overcame an 0-3 start in league play to win 4 of their last 5 and finish with a .500 or better conference record for the 5th consecutive season. The Tigers also finished 4-1 against teams from their division making them 13-2 against North teams since 2007. Behind sophomore quarterback Blaine Gabbert and the nation's leading receiver (in yards), Danario Alexander, the Tigers remained near the top of the league in offense, finishing 4th. The defense was only 7th in the league, but a little regression was to be expected with the team breaking in 7 new starters. Methinks its time to start mentioning Gary Pinkel as one of the more underrated coaches in college football. Missouri's opponent, the Naval Academy will be making their 7th consecutive bowl appearance, an unthinkable accomplishment at the beginning of the decade when the Midshipmen were 3-30 from 2000-2002. This season's incarnation of the Naval Academy has their strength on the defensive side of the ball. Navy is currently allowing just 334 yards per game, the best defensive numbers they have posted since their run began in 2003. That's a good thing as the offense is posting its worst output (344 yards per game) since the Midshipmen returned to the ranks of the college football living. The Missouri Tigers have far more talent than the Naval Academy, but so did Notre Dame, Wake Forest, and Ohio State, teams the Midshipmen either beat or played very close. Missouri will probably win this game, but I wouldn't feel comfortable playing this game unless the line were below a field goal.


Insight Bowl
December 31
Minnesota vs Iowa State
Minnesota -2.5
When people float the opinion that there are too many bowl games, this matchup serves as their ammunition. This game features what are likely the 2 worst bowl participants from BCS conferences. Both teams went 3-5 in their respective leagues, and neither masked that poor record with a solid underlying performance. The Gophers from Minnesota finished dead last in offense in the Big 10 for the second consecutive season. They averaged a feeble 2.9 yards per rush. That's a far cry from the fantastic running game the Gophers consistently fielded under Glen Mason. The Gophers didn't play defense particularly well either, finishing 7th in the Big 10 in that category. Don't feel sorry for Minnesota though. When a no-account program fired the best coach they've had in a half-century, well they got what was coming to them. Meanwhile, in Ames, Iowa, the Cyclones got rid of a no-account coach and are now going to their first bowl game since 2005. Only a crazy man, or super-genius, would have predicted that in the offseason. Paul Rhoads is the first coach in Cyclone history to lead Iowa State to a bowl game in his maiden voyage. In one season, Rhoads surpassed his predecessor's (Gene Chizik) wins at the school (5) and conference wins (2). Seems he should be in line for the Alabama job now right? While the Cyclones were a great story, and a team I will certainly be rooting for in bowl season, they did not really play any better than they did last season. The Cyclones finished 8th in the Big 12 in offense both seasons and 10th in defense both season. Their winless league campaign in 2008 was the result of bad luck in close games (0-3 in one-score league games), a poor turnover margin (-2 in league play), and probably a dose of bad coaching (as you can probably guess, I'm not a huge Chizik fan--at least as a head coach). This season, the Cyclones were 2-2 in one-score conference games and their in-conference turnover margin of +8 was second only to Texas. Oh, and Chizik is no longer the coach. As I said before, I'll be rooting hard for the Cyclones in this game. However, rooting does not equate wagering. Don't put a dime on this game wither way.


Chick-Fil-A Bowl
December 31
Virginia Tech vs Tennessee
Virginia Tech -4.5
The Virginia Tech Hokies look to become the first ACC team to win the bowl formerly known as the Peach since 2003 when Clemson beat...wait for it...Tennessee. Speaking of the Vols, they improved from 3-5 in the SEC in Phil Fulmer's last season to 4-4 in Lane Kiffin's first (controversy-filled) season thanks to improvement on offense. In 2008, the Vols featured the 2nd worst offense in the SEC (ahead of only Mississippi State). In 2009, they improved and finished in the middle of the pack (6th in the SEC). However, the team failed to contend for the SEC East title thanks to the decline of the defense. Last season under John Chavis, the Vols finished number one in the entire SEC in defense. This season, with Kiffin's father Monty coordinating the defense, the Vols fell to the middle of the pack (6th in the SEC). Perhaps Kiffin's charges had a hard time adjusting to a more pro-style coach and a more pro-style defense. Still, Tennessee's defense was nowhere near as strong as it was in 2008. Meanwhile, for Virginia Tech, it was business as usual. Since joining the ACC in 2004, the Hokies have finished either 1st or 2nd in the conference in defense. 2009 marked their 2nd consecutive finish as the top of the league in defense. The offense was not fantastic, but it was above-average (5th in the ACC) and marked a stark improvement from 2008 when they were only 10th in the ACC. This may be one of the better games of the bowl season. Tennessee is probably a little better than their 7-5 record as they were only 1-3 in one-score game. A little better luck, and they could be heading into the bowl with a shot at 10 wins. The difference in this game (shocker) could come down to special teams. The Hokies scored 3 touchdowns on special teams this season and they allowed none. The Vols scored none and allowed 2. The Hokies will probably win this game, but this spread is too high to make any wagers.


Outback Bowl
January 1
Auburn vs Northwestern
Auburn -7.5
After stumbling through a lackluster 5-7 season in 2008 when they struggled moving the football (finishing 9th in the SEC in offense), the Auburn Tigers hired Gus Malzahn as their offensive coordinator. The team immediately improved to 3rd in the league in offense and, especially early on, looked to be unstoppable. Unfortunately, the defense, which showed flashes of awfulness in the early season win over West Virginia (the Tigers won despite allowing 509 yards of total offense to the Mountaineers), ultimately proved to be the team's undoing, as they finished 8th in the SEC. The Tigers also struggled on the road, winning only once in 4 tries. The Tigers will take on a Northwestern team making their second consecutive bowl appearance. The Wildcats went 47 seasons between their first bowl appearance in 1948 and their second in 1995. This Outback Bowl will mark their 7th bowl appearance in the past 15 seasons, an unthinkable notion at the dawn of the 1990's. By some measures, the Wildcats appear to be a solid team coming out of the Big 10. They finished 3rd in the league in offense and 4th in defense. However, the Wildcats finished 6-1 in one-score games, meaning their margin for error is razor thin. Only 2 of their 8 wins came against bowl teams (Iowa and Wisconsin). They also lost to Syracuse in the non-conference season and barely outlasted winless Eastern Michigan by 3 points. Their SEC pedigree and scoring margin would suggest Auburn will have an easy go of it on New Year's Day. However, trust Gene Chizik at your own peril. Were I a betting man, I'd be inclined to take the Wildcats and the points.


Capital One Bowl
January 1
Penn St vs LSU
Penn St -2.5
Despite losing to both Iowa and Ohio State (at home no less), Penn State rated out as better than the Hawkeyes and Buckeyes thanks to possessing the top-ranked offense in the Big 10 and 3rd best defense. Outside of those 2 teams, Penn State played only 3 additional bowl squads (Minnesota, Northwestern, and Michigan State). The Nittany Lions crushed all those teams, but neither of the 3 are elite. Despite posting the best offense in the Big 10, Joe Pa's charges were held in check against the 2 best defenses they faced--Iowa and Ohio State. The Nittany Lions netted only 307 yards against Iowa and a putrid 201 yards against Ohio State. They also scored 17 total points in those 2 games. LSU is solid on defense, but by SEC standards, they were hardly elite in 2009. The Tigers finished 5th in the SEC in defense and an unbelievable 11th in offense (ahead of only Vanderbilt). The Tigers boosted their record by going 5-1 in one-score games and scoring 4 non-offensive touchdowns that provided the winning margin in 3 of those one-score games. I would look for this game to be a very low-scoring defensive struggle, but take either of these teams to cover at your own risk.


Gator Bowl
January 1
West Virginia vs Florida St
West Virginia -3
Bobby Bowden's last game as coach of Florida State will be against the team he coached for 6 seasons in the 1970's. Bowden won 42 games in 6 seasons at West Virginia and led the Mountaineers to 2 bowl games. He moved on to Tallahassee and has become one of the most successful coaches of all time. His career has not concluded as he would have liked as his Seminoles have lost more games this decade (44) than they lost in the 80's and 90's combined (41). Some folks have been complaining that the Seminoles at 6-6 did not deserve a bid to a bowl as prestigious as the Gator Bowl. True, it may have required some back room dealing, but in reality, if you aren't playing in the BCS National Championship Game, you're really only playing in a glorified exhibition. The Gator Bowl did what they had to do to sell tickets and manufacture a television audience. As for the game itself, Florida State comes in with the dubious distinction of having the best offense in the ACC and the worst defense in the conference. The problems on the defensive side of the ball led to the resignation of long-time Bowden lieutenant Mickey Andrews who will also be coaching his last game in the Gator Bowl. As for West Virginia, they were about average within the Big East on both sides of the ball, finishing 4th in the conference in offense and 3rd in defense. The Mountaineers should be able to move the ball consistently against the Seminole defense, but don't be surprised if Florida State picks up chunks of yardage as well. If you're must make a selection on this game, take the Seminoles on the moneyline as a victory here is a real possibility.


Rose Bowl
January 1
Oregon vs Ohio St
Oregon -3.5
After opening the season with a pair of lackluster performances (the shellacking at Boise and then a tight 2-point home win over Purdue where the Ducks scored 2 defensive touchdowns), Oregon rebounded to win the Pac-10. In the process, Oregon posted both the league's best offense and defense. Their lone defeat within the league was a 9-point setback at Stanford that begat Toby Gerhart's near successful Heisman campaign. Statistically, the Ducks were the best team in the Pac-10, but they were also somewhat fortunate to end up 10-2. They were 4-0 in one-score games (including their last 2 games of the regular season when they upended fellow contenders Arizona and Oregon State by a combined 7 points) and they scored 6 non-offensive touchdowns. The Ducks will be matching up against the Ohio State Buckeyes who finished with at least a share of the Big 10 title for the 5th consecutive season. Ohio State boasted the league's best defense, but even with Terrelle Pryor under center, finished a distant 8th in the Big 10 in offense. It seems patently unfair for a quarterback of Pryor's talents to be hamstrung under such an ancient offensive system as that run by Jim Tressel and offensive coordinator Jim Bollman. Ohio State won games this season as they always have under Tressel, by utilizing a great defense, winning the turnover margin (Buckeyes were tops in the Big 10 at +12 in league play), and scoring on defense and special teams (5 non-offensive touchdowns). Ohio State is a team I never want to take a favorite as they seem content to win by the thinnest of margins, but as a dog they are an enticing play. The Buckeyes have covered in their 2 games as underdogs this season (vs Southern Cal and at Penn State) and covering a 3rd time would not surprise me. Still, there are much better values on the board than laying any cash on this game.


Sugar Bowl
January 1
Florida vs Cincinnati
Florida -11.5
Now before you go laying this month's mortgage on the Gators to cover this large number, let me point out a few things. Since the start of the 2005 bowl season, double digit favorites are 5-14 against the spread (including 0-2 this postseason). Those favorites are a somewhat solid 12-7 straight up (including 0-2 this postseason), but its clear, the dog has been the way to go in games like this one. The Bearcats will have a hard time stopping Florida (they finished as the 4th best defense in the Big East), but they will probably be able to mount a few drives of their own (number one offense in the Big East) even sans Brian Kelly. Plus, its not as if Florida doesn't have some coaching controversy of their own as you may have heard. And another thing, it was just 2 years to the day when the Gators were poised to destroy a team from the mid-west as double digit favorites. In fact, that mid-western team had lost to Appalachian State earlier in the year. However, that team from the mid-west not only covered, but they beat the Gators straight up. I'm not saying Cincinnati has what it takes to win this game, just that it will probably be a lot closer than you imagined.


International Bowl
January 2
South Florida vs Northern Illinois
South Florida -7
Thank goodness for the Bulls this game is played indoors. After once again harboring conference title and BCS bowl aspirations in late September, the Bulls staggered to the finish line and will have to settle for a nondescript bowl bid. Since joining the Big East in 2005, the Bulls are 19-3 in games played in August or September. In that same span, the Bulls are 20-21 in games played in October, November, December, and January. Of course, the August and September slate includes games against overmatched non-conference opponents, but playing in the Big East may afford the Bulls a climate disadvantage compared to other teams from Florida. Consider the 3 other major programs in Florida (Florida, Florida State, and Miami) all play in southern leagues. Miami and Florida State could potentially have to travel to Boston College, Maryland, Virginia, or Virginia Tech in October or November games. Florida could potentially have to travel as far north as Arkansas, Tennessee or Kentucky. However, the Bulls can go as far north as Rutgers (New Jersey), West Virgina, Pittsburgh, Connecticut, Cincinnati, and Louisville (Kentucky). Plus, since their schedule only includes 7 conference games, those contests usually all fall later in the season. In the offseason, I plan on taking a more comprehensive look at South Florida's performance outdoors in the cold. Back to this game. South Florida was thoroughly mediocre in the Big East. They finished 5th in the conference in both offense and defense, and outside of a home win over West Virginia (3rd in their last 4 games with the Mountaineers) only managed to defeat the dregs of the conference (Syracuse and Louisville). Northern Illinois is playing in their second bowl game in a row under coach Jerry Kill, who took the reigns prior to the 2008 season. Kill was successful at previous stops at Saginaw Valley State and Southern Illinois where he posted a combined 93-46 record. Kill's defenses have been particularly good at Northern Illinois thus far, leading the MAC in defense in both 2008 and 2009. The offense has improved slightly, finishing 10th last season and 8th this year. With the departures of quarterback Dan LeFevour and coach Butch Jones at Central Michigan, Kill may be poised to lead the Huskies to a MAC title next season. In the interim, don't be surprised if his charges give the Bulls at lot of trouble in the early afternoon hours of January 2nd. The Bulls certainly have better athletes than the Huskies, but the coaching prowess of Kill may be enough to keep the Huskies in this one.


Papa Johns Bowl
January 2
South Carolina vs Connecticut
South Carolina -4.5
One season after finishing with the best defense in the Big East and an offense that struggled throwing the football, Connecticut had the best offense in the Big East this side of Cincinnati, but the worst defense in the entire conference. With a decent game from running back Andre Dixon (967 rush yards on the season), the Huskies will have 2 backs top the 1000-yard mark. Dixon and Jordan Todman have combined for over 2100 yards and 27 touchdowns on the ground. While the Huskies may well boast 2 1000-yard rushers by games end, South Carolina has not had one since 2000! The Gamecocks do boast a strong defense (4th in the SEC behind the behemoths at Florida and Alabama and the surprisingly strong defense from the Rebels at Ole Miss) and perhaps the best quarterback in Spurrier's tenure at the school in Stephen Garcia. While Garcia struggled somewhat with accuracy (completing only 56.6% of his passes), he did a good job of avoiding turnovers, throwing only 9 interceptions all season. South Carolina is far from a polished offensive unit, but they should be able to move the ball against the weak Connecticut defense. I will be fortunate enough to watch this game in person, and while some may be tempted to lay a few dollars on the Gamecocks, I would strongly caution against it. The Gamecocks have allowed at least 31 points in each of their 3 bowl games under Spurrier. If Connecticut gets to that number, the Gamecocks probably will not cover.


Cotton Bowl
January 2
Ole Miss vs Oklahoma State
Ole Miss -3
The Rebels from Ole Miss were somewhat of a disappointment this season, finishing with only 4 league wins, just a year removed from an out of nowhere 5-win conference campaign. Last season, the Rebels were statistically the 3rd best team in the conference, behind both Alabama and Florida. This season, the Rebels were once again the 3rd best team in the conference behind both Alabama and Florida. What was the big difference? Turnovers. Last season Ole Miss passers threw 10 interceptions in league play (9 by quarterback Jevan Snead and 1 by running back Dexter McCluster). The Rebels also lost 7 fumbles against SEC foes for a total of 17 turnovers. This season, Snead upped his total to 15 interceptions in league play and the Rebels lost 5 fumbles for 20 total turnovers in SEC play. However, in 2008, the Rebels forced 16 turnovers (10 interceptions and 6 fumbles) for a net turnover margin of -1, hardly devastating. In 2009, the Rebels only forced 7 turnovers in SEC play (3 interceptions and 4 fumbles) for a net turnover margin of -13. That number is devastating, and is the biggest reason Ole Miss failed to live up to the preseason hype. While 2009 was disappointing for Ole Miss, it was bittersweet for Oklahoma State. After finishing with above-average Big 12 offenses for 3 straight seasons and below average defenses for even longer, the Cowboys finally fielded a solid defense (4th in the Big 12) only to have their offense, through injuries and suspensions let them down (7th in the Big 12). The Cowboys still had an outside shot at an at-large BCS bid until they were shutout by Oklahoma in the regular season finale. Even with that bitter defeat, the Cowboys have a chance at 10 wins for the first time since 1988. This rematch of the 2003 Cotton Bowl (Eli Manning's last college game) seems pretty evenly matched. If Ole Miss can actually create some turnovers in this game, instead of just giving the ball away, they should walk out of Dallas with their second straight Cotton Bowl win.


Liberty Bowl
January 2
Arkansas vs East Carolina
Arkansas -8
Exactly 4 weeks to the day after winning the Conference USA Championship against a team with a great offense and a lousy defense, the Pirates from East Carolina will match up with another team with a great offense and a lousy defense. The Razorbacks from Arkansas finished 2nd in the SEC in offense (behind only Ole Miss), but failed to contend in the SEC West thanks to a defense that ranked dead last in the conference. Bobby Petrino's prolific passing attack scored at least 30 points in 9 of their 12 games and was only held in check by Alabama (7 points), Florida (20 points), and Ole Miss (17 points). East Carolina was good on defense, finishing 2nd in Conference USA, but a good defense in Conference USA is usually a lot different from a good defense in the SEC. Thankfully for the Pirates, they did field their best offense yet under Skip Holtz (5th in Conference USA). East Carolina will probably need to score at least 35 points and finish at least +3 in turnover margin to win this game. Stranger things have happened, and while I think Arkansas will win this game, I don't know that they can cover this number.


Alamo Bowl
January 2
Texas Tech vs Michigan State
Texas Tech -8.5
Texas Tech did what they always do under Mike Leach. They finished 1st in the Big 12 in offense and 5th in defense. They yacked up one game you didn't expect them to (Texas A&M), but they made up for it by pulling off at least one upset (Oklahoma). Michigan State had a good run of back luck, finishing 2-5 in one-score games, including 3 straight such defeats beginning against Central Michigan. Michigan State was solid on offense, finishing 4th in the Big 10, but they had issues on defense finishing 8th. Michigan State only lost one game all season by more than 8 points, but it came against the only very good team they played--Penn State. The Spartans beat one bowl team all season--Northwestern. This one has all the trappings of a Texas Tech blowout. If the spread was under a touchdown, I'd be all over the Red Raiders. As it is, the Red Raiders may be a good play, but the size of the line has scared me off.