Pac-10 2008 SDPI

One of my favorite set of posts from the past two offseasons has been the SDPI recap/early preview. Don't know what SDPI is? It stands for Standard Deviation Power Index and is a tool Eddie Epstein used in his book Dominance to rate pro football's best teams. The basic idea is to look at how far above or below average (by standard deviations) a specific team is relative to their conference brethren. Since each team plays the same number of conference games, it can give us a good idea about who the best team was within the conference. However, it cannot tell us which conference is better. But the purpose of these posts is not to determine which conference is superior, but rather project ahead which teams in a conference will be contenders or also rans in the upcoming season. In the first post on SDPI two years ago, I calculated SDPI based on points scored and allowed within conference play. Last season I used points scored and allowed as well as yards gained and allowed. This season, I'm sticking with yards only. The yardage version of SDPI has a better correlation with future performance than points, and including both last season made the post seem (at least to me) quite muddled. Of course, this is by no means, the end all be all rating system, but it can give us an idea of which teams will improve and decline in 2009. After a one week hiatus, we will now move out west and examine the Pac-10.

If you want the meat of the article, skip this next paragraph as it just gives an example of how SDPI is calculated. The mean yardage for and against for all Pac-10 teams in conference play was 3126 yards. The standard deviation for yards gained was 782.72. The standard deviation for yards allowed was 651.28. Arizona gained 3454 yards in conference play and allowed 2934. Their offensive SDPI was 0.42 = ([3454-3126]/782.72). Their defensive SDPI was 0.29 = ([3126-2934]/651.28). Their total SDPI was 0.71 which ranked 4th in the conference.

To refresh your memory, here are the 2008 Pac-10 Standings.

Now here are the 2008 SDPI Standings sorted by total SDPI, with conference rank in offense, defense, and total SDPI in parentheses.

Surprise surprise. The Trojans from Southern Cal were head and shoulders above their Pac-10 brethren. If you took the second place team (Oregon State) and doubled their SDPI numbers they would still be in second place. After the Trojans and Beavers, the next set of teams were just about even. Cal, Arizona, and Oregon are all separated by 8 one-hundredths of a standard deviation. After a little drop off, the next three teams were also eeffectively even. UCLA, Arizona State, and Stanford are separated by only 18 one-hundredths of a standard deviation. Then we have the dregs of the conference. Washington and Washington State combined to go 0-23 against IA schools outside the state of Washington. While the Cougars were able to defeat the Huskies and avoid a winless conference season, they were clearly the worst of the duo over the entire year.

Best Offense: Oregon 1.22
In a photo finish, the Ducks edged the Trojans by a single yard over the course of the Pac-10 conference season. I'm inclined to give the Ducks the benefit of the doubt as well, since they accumulated that extra yard despite having to face the Trojans defense. The Trojans, aside from their eight other common conference foes, got to face an Oregon defense that was much more generous.

Worst Offense: Washington State -1.74
The Cougars averaged under 200 yards per game in conference play. They broke the 300-yard mark only once in conference--against the Huskies in the Apple Cup.

Best Defense: Southern Cal 1.75
The Trojans allowed about 221 yards per game to their Pac-10 foes. Put another way, they made nearly every Pac-10 team look like a slightly better version of Washington State. After opening the conference season getting run over by the dimunitive Jacquizz Rodgers, the Trojans allowed only 206 yards per game to their next eight Pac-10 opponents. Somehow Stanford was also able to run wild on the Trojans (200 yards rushing and 367 total yards). If we remove that game from consideration, their other seven Pac-10 opponents averaged only 183 yards per game against the Trojans defense.

Worst Defense: Washington State -1.68
In five of their nine Pac-10 games the Cougars allowed over 500 yards. Even if we give them a mulligan and only consider their four 'good' games, their defense would only rank seventh in the conference.

Looking ahead to next season, the prohibitive favorite should be...

Washington State
Just seeing if you were paying attention. Once again, 2009 appears to be the Trojans title to lose. There appears to be three tough Pac-10 games on the docket next season: road trips to Cal, Oregon, and Arizona State. Still, its a pretty safe bet the Trojans take at least two of those, and with the gap in performance between the Trojans and everybody else in 2008, it would take some great improvement, and a little luck, for a team to even share the conference crown with Pete Carroll's boys.

The team(s) you should be buying are...

Washington and Washington State
The good news for fans in the Pacific Northwest is that extreme performances (whether good or bad) are simply not statistically likely to be repeated. The chances of Washington and Washington State performing worse than they did last season is infinitesimally small. Washington State for one, had to deal with an unprecedented amount of injuries. In fact, coach Paul Wulff even held open tryouts for the scout team quarterback in October; something that is almost unheard of at the Division IA level. Washington didn't quite have the injury problems of the Cougars, though they did lose quarterback Jake Locker for the season in the fourth game. The Huskies also had bad luck in another area--close games. They lost three games by a combined 11 points (BYU, Stanford, and Washington State). Locker is expected to return to the starting lineup in 2009 and the Huskies also brought in a new coach with a winning pedigree, Steve Sarkisian, so there is reason for optimism. While both teams were pretty bad last season, the Huskies have a much shorter distance to travel to become competitive. With five conference home games, the Huskies can realistically dream of a bowl bid to cap Sarkisian's maiden voyage. Washington State should improve, but a bowl game seems like a pipe dream. The goal instead should be doubling or tripling last season's solitary conference win.

The team(s) you should be selling are...

???
This may seem like a very cowardly cop-out, but there is no single team in the Pac-10 that I can say without hesitation will have a worse year in 2009. In my opinion, the most likely candidate is Oregon State, but Mike Riley has kept the Beavers near the top of the standing the past three seasons with three very different teams.

The team(s) you should be holding are...

Arizona, Stanford, and UCLA
Arizona would appear to have a lot going for them heading into 2009 fresh off the school's first postseason appearance in a decade. The team was statistically in the top half of the conference last season. However, the Wildcats have a few issues that stand out. First and foremost, they are coached by Mike Stoops. I'm not saying Stoops is a bad coach, in fact, he has done a fine job in rebuilding the Arizona program after the debacle that was John Mackovic. Unfortunately, the Wildcats seems to have several WTF? games each season. Last year it was road losses to a 4-8 New Mexico team (where the Wildcats committed five turnovers) and a 5-7 Stanford team, as well as a last second home loss to Oregon State that kept the Beavers in the hunt for the Rose Bowl. 2007 also featured losses to New Mexico (a 9-4 bowl team) and Stanford (4-8 in Jim Harbaugh's first season), and these were at home. 2006 saw Arizona lose at home to Washington (5-7) and archrival Arizona State (7-6), when a victory in either would have propelled the 6-6 Wildcats to a bowl game. Suffice it to say, don't bank on Arizona to deal well with prosperity. Oh, and I neglected to mention that the Wildcats must replace their all-time leading passer, Willie Tuitama, along with last season's leading receiver, Mike Thomas, in 2009. On the other hand, Arizona was 0-4 in one-score games last season and besides Tuitama and Thomas, returns nearly their entire offense from last season. Be wary of expecting excessive good fortune or disproportionate doom and gloom for Arizona. Another Pac-10 record of 4-5 or 5-4 seems about right. The Stanford Cardinal flirted with a bowl game last season before dropping their final three contests to finish 5-7. There was definite improvement in Year 2 of the Jim Harbaugh era as the Cardinal won four conference games for the first time since 2005. Stanford also defended their home turf very well, going 4-1 in Palo Alto, with the lone loss coming at the hands of the Trojans. Stanford fans have reason to look forward to the coming season with the return of senior running back Toby Gerhart (Stanford's first 1000-yard rusher this century). The running game has certainly improved under Harbaugh as Stanford averaged under 3 yards per rush from 2003-2007 before breaking the glass ceiling and nearly getting to 5 yards per rush (4.89) in 2008. An optimist would also point out the fact that although Stanford was eighth in SDPI, they were within shouting distance of the seventh and sixth place teams (Arizona State and UCLA). Of course the cynic has plenty of ammo as well. In conference games not involving the two Washington schools, Stanford was 2-5 and was outscored by almost 10 points per game. The offense has a passable but decent at best quarterback in senior Tavita Prithard, and though super-recruit Andrew Luck is waiting in the wings, the passing game is still a work in progress. Finally, for all the good Stanford did at home, they struggled mightily on the road. Their lone road win in seven tries came against Washington by seven points. With just four conference home games in 2009, the Cardinal must win some games on the road if they harbor postseason aspirations. What does 2009 hold for Stanford? I wouldn't bet against Jim Harbaugh, as he has made the Cardinal competitive in record time, but a lot has to go right for Stanford to get to a bowl game this season. And what about the Bruins? If it wasn't for the two Washington schools (a common refrain in 2008), the UCLA offense would have been the most reviled unit in the Pac-10. The defense was bowl-ready, finishing second to Southern Cal (though they allowed about 81 more yards per game than the Trojans) in Pac-10 play. The defense should continue to be among the best in the conference with four of the top five tacklers back, including linebacker and All-America candidate Reggie Carter. At least a little improvement can be expected from the offense, as the passing attack ammassed only nine touchdowns to go against 21 interceptions last season. If Kevin Craft, or whoever plays quarterback, can take just a little better care of the ball, and not put the defense in such unenviable situations, the Bruins could climb in the Pac-10 standings. Of course, it is important to mention that two of UCLA's three Pac-10 victories last season came against the Washington schools (surprise surprise). Outside of those games, UCLA's only other conference victory came in a squeaker at home over Stanford (23-20). Like Stanford, UCLA has only four conference home games in 2009, so if they are to improve in Rick Neuheisel's second season, they will have to win some games on the road.

Be Like Mike

Avid readers of this blog, if they exist, were likely looking forward to the post on Pac-10 SDPI. Alas, with conference tourneys winding down and the NCAA tournament winding up(?), I have been preoccupied. Thus, the Pac-10 SDPI post will have to wait until next week. However, I do have a Pac-10 nugget to share. With Mike Bellotti's shift from head coach to AD last week, I thought it would be a good time to wax nostalgic on his tenure at Oregon.

Bellotti took over as head coach of the Ducks after the 1994 season when Rich Brooks left Eugene for the riches of the NFL. In his 14 seeasons at the helm, the Ducks have posted the second best record in Pac-10 play (see table below).In those 14 seasons, the Ducks played in 12 bowl games (winning half of them). They suffered only a single losing season (a 5-6 record in 2004) after posting seven losing seasons in the previous 14 years. His teams won or shared two conference titles (2000 and 2001) and finished second three other times (1999, 2005, and 2008). His teams won at least 10 games four times (2000, 2001, 2005, and 2008) and never finished worse than 3-5 in Pac-10 play. Every other Pac-10 school has finished at least 2-6 or worse in Bellotti's tenure. Twice, Bellotti had his team in contention for the national championship. In fact, Oregon may have been the better choice to face Miami in the 2002 Rose Bowl, and if not for a tough break (literally) to quarterback Dennis Dixon in November of 2007, his penultimate team may have played for all the marbles. Bellotti didn't build the Oregon program (you can credit Rich Brooks for that), but he did keep it on firm footing and made it better than it was under his predecessor. He is the apotheosis of maintaining and improving upon a moribund program's initial success, and every coach should strive to be like Mike.

Big 12 Review 2005-2008

In addition to the SDPI posts, another offseason interest of mine has been to look at how each IA conference has shaken out since 2005. I chose 2005 as the starting point because that was the year the ACC expanded to 12 teams, the Big East added 3 new members and booted Temple, Conference USA added a championship game, the Mountain West added TCU, the WAC looted the Sun Belt after several of its members joined Conference USA, and the Sun Belt added 2 independents from Florida (FAU and FIU). Since 2005, there has only been one change in any IA conference. That was the expansion of the MAC by a single team with the addition of Temple. We'll begin with a look at the ACC since 2005. And one final note, each of the statistics posted here are for conference games only (championship games excluded). Since each school plays a vastly different non-conference schedule, this offers a better standard of comparison. So far, we've looked at the ACC, Big East, and Big 10. Now we turn out attention to the Big 12. Here are the cummlative Big 12 standings since 2005.No surprise at the top of the conference, as Oklahoma and Texas have owned the Big 12 for the better part of this decade. The third place finish by Texas Tech speaks to the coaching prowess of Mike Leach, not just because he lacks the tradition of some of the programs below him, but also because he has to deal with Oklahoma and Texas every season. Against other Big 12 teams besides Texas and Oklahoma, Texas Tech is 18-6 since 2005. The best Big 12 North team since 2005 is Missouri, winners of the past two North championships. Remember who won the North in 2005? Colorado. Despite that chaampionship in 2005, the Buffs have a better conference record than only three teams since then. In fact, since that championship season, Colorado has lost twice as many Big 12 games as they have won (8-16 record).

Now here is each team's home record in conference play since 2005.The Sooners have defended their home turf in Norman perfectly since 2005. In fact, the last time Oklahoma lost at home to a Big 12 team was in 2001 to arch-rival Oklahoma State. The other elite teams in the South have also defended their homefield very well, though not quite at the level of the Sooners. The biggest disparity between home and road performance actually belongs to five teams (four of them from the North). Texas Tech, Missouri, Colorado, Kansas State, and Iowa State are all five games better at home. In fact, Iowa State has won only once on the road in conference play over the past four seasons (a 42-14 beating of Texas A&M in 2005). Speaking of the Aggies, their struggles at home are a little surprising. Their home and road records are both 7-9 since 2005.

Now here is how homefield advantage shakes out in the Big 12 (in conference play only) with respect to the nation at large (with rank out of the 11 IA conferences in parentheses).Homefield advantage has meant more in the Big 12 than any other conference since 2005. That makes sense considering the fact that the Sooners have yet to taste defeat at home to a Big 12 foe since 2005, and that other five teams are five games better at home than they are on the road (with Kansas narrowly missing the cut at four and a half games better at home).

Next up is how each Big 12 team stacks up offensively for each season. This is the ranking of yards per game in conference play.Mike Leach and the Red Raiders have been first or second in offense each season. In the two seasons they failed to grab the top spot, they were outdone by historic offenses than either won (Texas in 2005) or played for (Oklahoma in 2008) the national title. Oklahoma's struggles on offense in 2006 and 2007 are shocking, especially considering the 2006 team featured Adrian Peterson. If you remember though, Peterson missed the final seven regular season games, including the Big 12 Championship win over Nebraska. That team was also quarterbacked by Paul Thompson, a solid, but unspectacular player. The 2007 team's lack of offensive firepower is harder to explain. Sam Bradford led the nation in pass efficiency and the Sooners had two backs top 700 yards on the ground. The main reason for the Sooners low placement is the offensive environment they played in. The past few seasons, the Big 12 has been very condusive to offense, or adverse to defense, depending on where you stand. Nationally, Oklahoma has been a good offense, but when compared to their Big 12 peers, they have been mediocre on occasion. Speaking of mediocrity, Dan Hawkins would killl for a mediocre offense in Boulder. After finishing seventh in the league in offense in Gary Barnett's swan song, Hawkins has yet to develop a consistent offensive attack. In he is unable improve the offense in 2009, he may be on his way out. Its also interesting to note Missouri's relatively unimpressive offensive finishes. With one season of Brad Smith and three seasons of Chase Daniel under center, the Tigers have yet to finish better than third in the conference in yards.

And finally, here are the defensive rankings for each team. This is yards allowed per game in conference play.Which season did Missouri put it all together and nearly play for a national title? When they had an elite defense. That season sticks out like a sore thumb when compared with their other pedestrian finishes. Notice how the Husker defense steadily eroded under Bill Callahan (2005-2007) and then rebounded immediately when Bo Pellini became the coach. Oklahoma was anchored by their defense in 2005 and 2006. Imagine if they could have posted those same defensive efforts to match their historic offensive performance in 2008. There would been a great deal of 'best team ever' talk. Kansas went from elite defense in 2005, to also-ran in 2006, back to elite in 2007, to below-average in 2008. Will the trend continue in 2009? Despite all the offensive accolades Mike Leach has garnered at Texas Tech, its clear he also delegates to competent men on the other side of the ball. Along with Oklahoma and Texas, the Red Raiders are the only team to never finish below average on defense in the past four seasons.

Big 12 2008 SDPI

One of my favorite set of posts from the past two offseasons has been the SDPI recap/early preview. Don't know what SDPI is? It stands for Standard Deviation Power Index and is a tool Eddie Epstein used in his book Dominance to rate pro football's best teams. The basic idea is to look at how far above or below average (by standard deviations) a specific team is relative to their conference brethren. Since each team plays the same number of conference games, it can give us a good idea about who the best team was within the conference. However, it cannot tell us which conference is better. But the purpose of these posts is not to determine which conference is superior, but rather project ahead which teams in a conference will be contenders or also rans in the upcoming season. In the first post on SDPI two years ago, I calculated SDPI based on points scored and allowed within conference play. Last season I used points scored and allowed as well as yards gained and allowed. This season, I'm sticking with yards only. The yardage version of SDPI has a better correlation with future performance than points, and including both last season made the post seem (at least to me) quite muddled. Of course, this is by no means, the end all be all rating system, but it can give us an idea of which teams will improve and decline in 2009. We've already looked at the ACC, Big East, and Big 10 so now we'll take a look at the Big 12.

If you want the meat of the article, skip this next paragraph as it just gives an example of how SDPI is calculated. The mean yardage for and against for all Big 12 teams in conference play (championship game excluded) was 3450.47 yards. The standard deviation for yards gained was 604.40. The standard deviation for yards allowed was 448.37. Kansas gained 3283 yards in conference play and allowed 3577 Their offensive SDPI was -0.28 = ([3283-3450.47]/604.40). Their defensive SDPI was -0.28 = ([3450.47-3577]/448.37). Their total SDPI was -0.56 which ranked 7th in the conference.

To refresh your memory, here are the 2008 Big 12 Standings.

Now here are the 2008 SDPI Standings sorted by total SDPI, with conference rank in offense, defense, and total SDPI in parentheses.

I'm a man who gives credit where credit is due, and it looks like the BCS got it right. Despite their head-to-head win over Oklahoma, in the other seven Big 12 conference games, the Sooners were simply more dominant than the Longhorns. Statistically, they were the best team and I have no problem with them earning the Big 12 Championship bid, and later the BCS National Championship Game bid. The Sooners offense was historically prodigious in 2008. In conference play, the second best offense (Texas Tech) was was nearly three quarters of a standard deviation worse, and the third best offense (Nebraska) was more than an entire standard deviation below the Sooners. Vehement SEC partisans might point out that Florida shut-down the mighty Oklahoma attack, but while the Sooners did gain a season-low 363 yards against the Gators, if not for two red-zone gaffes, they would have been in a great position to win the national title. Those same SEC partisans might also point out that Oklahoma put up those yardage and point totals against a set of Big 12 defenses that were not exactly rugged. It also bears mentioning that the other eleven teams in the conference also got to play those defenses. The Sooners separated themselves, at least offensively, from their conference brethren like few teams before them. Not surprisngly, as three teams in the division finished 7-1 in league play, the South was once again superior to the North as the top three and four of the top six teams resided in that division. What may come as a shock to some folks is that Nebraska rates out as the top team in the North. After being bludgeoned by Missouri on their homefield, on national television, by 35 points, the Huskers would lose only twice more the rest of the season--by six at Texas Tech and in embarrassing fashion at Oklahoma. Meanwhile Missouri would prove their pretender status, at least on the national scene, by dropping a home game to Oklahoma State, being blown out at Texas, and losing at a neutral site to arch-rival Kansas. Missouri certainly owned the Huskers in their head-to-head meeting, but over the rest of the Big 12 season, Nebraska was the better team.

Best Offense: Oklahoma 1.86
The most remarkable fact about the Okahoma offense is not how many yards and points they put up, but how many negative plays they avoided. Sam Bradford threw four interceptions and was sacked six times in eight Big 12 games. If we include the Big 12 Championship Game against Missouri, those numbers do not change. Two of those interceptions and three of those sacks came in the loss to Texas. I hope Mr. Bradford took his offensive linemen out for some quality steaks after he won the Heisman.

Worst Offense: Colorado -1.64
Think Dan Hawkins regrets leaving the cozy confines of Boise, Idaho?

Best Defense: Texas 1.30
Maybe this Will Muschamp character knows a thing or two about defense. Not surprisingly, the only game where the Longhorns really struggled defensively was the upset loss in Lubbock where the Red Raiders gained 579 yards.

Worst Defense: Kansas State -1.82
In other years, a performance like this could be enough to get the greatest coach in program history to make a comeback...

Hardest Schedule (based on cumulative SDPI of opponents): Baylor 5.29
The Bears played in the more arduous South division, meaning they had to play Oklahoma, Texas Tech, Texas, and Oklahoma State. In two of their three games against the North, they drew the best teams from that division--Nebraska and Missouri. All in all, they faced the top six teams in the conference.

Easiest Schedule (based on cumulative SDPI of opponents): Iowa State -4.58
If I wanted to fan the flames of the Gene Chizik hiring fiasco, I might remind you that the team with the easiest conference schedule went winless in Big 12 play. Obviously, they played in the weaker division, and in their games against the South, they managed to avoid the triumverate of Oklahoma, Texas Tech, and Texas.

Entire Schedule Strength (hardest to easiest)
Baylor 5.29
Kansas 3.60
Kansas State 1.34
Oklahoma State 0.86
Texas 0.27
Texas A&M 0.17
Texas Tech -0.25
Oklahoma -0.46
Nebraska -1.72
Colorado -1.91
Missouri -2.77
Iowa State -4.58

Looking ahead to next season, the prohibitive favorite should be...

North: Nebraska
Projecting Nebraska as the favorite to take the North in 2009 is based on their good standing in 2008 (statistically the best team in the division with the third ranked offense and second ranked defense) and because frankly, its hard to come up with a convincing argument for any of the other five teams. Statistically, Kansas State was the league's worst team last season, and while they have a good shot at improving this season (more on that later), a division title may be the coaching job of Bill Snyder's career. Iowa State may finally have a coach who wants to to be their, but they were winless in the Big 12 last season despite owning the league's easiest schedule. Colorado has yet to find an offense in three seasons under Dan Hawkins, and actually regressed in Year Three after making significant progress in Year Two. Missouri, the two-time defending division champ, loses one of the best quarterbacks they've ever had (Chase Daniel), their number one playmaker (Jeremy Maclin), one of the nation's best tight ends (Chase Coffman), an over-looked senior receiver (Tommy Saunders) and two starting offensive linemen. On the other side of the ball, the Tigers will be without the services of alliterative defensive end Stryker Sulak who led the team with 10.5 sacks last season. Along with Sulak, six of the top eight tacklers from last season's mediocre defense are gone. Fortunately for the Tigers, game-changing linebacker Sean Weatherspoon will be around for his senior year. It looks like a rebuilding year in Columbia, and while rebuilding may mean the Texas Bowl instead of 4-8, it likely precludes a division title. That leaves Kansas as the likely only legitimate contender the Huskers will have to deal with. Kansas returns a great deal of talent on the offensive side of the ball with quarterback Todd Reesing, running back Jake Sharp, and receiver Kerry Meier (the best hands in college football) all back for their senior seasons. The Jayhawks also have a pair of talented junior receivers in Dezmon Briscoe (led the team in catches, yards, and touchdowns last season) and Jonathan Wilson. However, despite the glut of returning skill position players, Kansas may have some issues along the offensive line as three or four starters (depending on your definition) depart. The Jayhawks will also be without linebacker James Holt who led the team in tackles and sacks last season, as well as five other defensive starters. Oh yeah, and there's also the matter of the schedule. While the Jayhawks do host Nebraska, they have only three conference home games, and one is against Oklahoma. Still repaying the football gods for their tranquil 2007 conference schedule, the Jayhawks must travel to Colorado (one win at Boulder since 1995), Kansas State (one win in Manhattan since 1989), Texas Tech, and Texas. Ouch. I don't doubt that the Jayhawks can win some of those games, but they can't win enough to take the division. That leaves one team. Nebraska. Though it was overshadowed, the job Bo Pelini did in resurrecting the Nebraska defense in his first year on the job was amazing. In 2007, the Huskers finished dead last in the Big 12 in yards allowed per game in conference play, permitting 512 yards per game. In 2008, the Huskers finished second in yards allowed per game, permitting only 365 per contest. The defense also improved as the season wore on as the table below illustrates. Those first six games include clashes with powerful offenses like Missouri and Texas Tech, but also games with San Jose State (113th in total offense), New Mexico State (62nd in total offense), and Virginia Tech (103rd in total offense). In their last seven games, the Huskers tussled with Oklahoma and faced only two teams ranked lower than 44th in total offense (Colorado at 95th and Clemson at 87th). The primary difference between the first and second half of the season was the pass rush. In their first six games, the Huskers managed only 11 sacks. In their last seven, they totalled 24, including 19 in the last four games. The bulk of the players who accumulated those sacks will be back in 2009, including defensive tackle Ndamukong Suh, who led the team with 7.5 sacks. Another positive indicator going forward is that Nebraska played very good defense despite almost never forcing turnovers. The Huskers forced only nine turnovers in eight conference games, tied with Iowa State for the fewest forced turnovers in Big 12 play. The good news for the Huskers is that turnovers, while the result of skill and practice, are also highly random. A team that forces a minuscule number of turnovers one season will tend to force more the next season. Of course, the Huskers do have a few areas they will need to address to actually win the North in 2009. Foremost among them is quarterback. Joe Ganz tossed 25 touchdowns last season and posted the 14th best passer efficiency rating in the nation. If the Huskers can just get competent quarterback play, they should take the North crown.

South: Oklahoma or Texas
After my 'War and Peace' breakdown of the North, here's an abriged version on the South. Oklahoma or Texas have won the South every season since 1999. Texas Tech had their chance last season, and almost broke through. Unfortunately, the two biggest stars of that team, quarterback Graham Harrell and receiver Michael Crabtree, are gone. I'm sure Mike Leach will find an air apparrent under center and lead the Red Raiders to eight or nine regular season victories, but Oklahoma or Texas will represent the South in the Big 12 Championship Game.

The team(s) you should be buying are...

Iowa State and Kansas State
New head coach Paul Rhodes is not exactly stepping into an ideal situation, but the good news is, it only takes one win to improve upon last season's dismal campaign. Though they were winless last season (in conference play), the Cyclones actually rated out better than both Texas A&M and Kansas State (although those two teams did beat them on the field). The Cyclones were far from a 'good' or even 'mediocre' team (eighth in offense and tenth in defense in the Big 12), but they were certainly better than most winless squads. They were undone by a poor record in close games. Three of their eight conference games were decided by a single score (Kansas, Colorado, and Kansas State). The Cyclones lost each of those games by a combined 14 points. A few lucky bounces here or there and Iowa State would have been another middling 2-6 team, rather than one that bore the stigma of a winless conference season. Along with the likelihood of a little better luck in 2009, the Cyclones also bring back their starting quarterback (Austen Arnaud), running back (Alexander Robinson), eight of their top nine receivers, and seven starters on defense. Once again the schedule is very inviting as the Cyclones avoid Oklahoma, Texas Tech, and Texas from the Big 12 South. They also host Baylor and Colorado, as well as getting Kansas State at a neutral site in Kansas City. They won't be anywhere close to the best team in the division, but with North Dakota State, Kent State, and Army on the non-conference slate (as well as the annual showdown with rival Iowa), a bowl bid is at least within the realm of possibility. Elsewhere, in Manhattan, Kansas, the architect of the greatest turnaround in college football history returns to try to right the program once again. Let's face it, Ron Prince was a terrible hire. When he was the offensive coordinator at Virginia, did anyone ever stop and say to themselves, 'Wow. We have to get this man to coach our team.' I doubt it. Especially after this game. Much like two decades ago, Snyder has a long way to go to get this team back on track, but luckily for him the schedule may give him the chance to at least get the Wildcats back to the postseason. To be fair, the road trips are nightmarish (Texas Tech, Oklahoma, and Nebraska in conference play, along with a non-conference trip to UCLA), but the home conference schedule includes dates with Texas A&M (another statistically awful team last season), Colorado, and Kansas (Jayhawks win in 2007 was their first in Manhattan since 1989). Besides the schedule, the other good news for Kansas State is that they were partucularly young on defense last season. The top six tacklers from last season are back, and it would be hard to envision them being any worse. Three Big 12 teams gashed the Wildcats for over 600 yards last season and three others topped the 500-yard mark. Defenses that bad that are not coached by complete morons tend to get better (see Nebraska from last season as a luminating example). On offense, Snyder must find a quarterback to replace Josh Freeman, who departed for the NFL. However, even with Freeman, the Wildcats were only ninth in the conference in total offense. And against Big 12 defenses, well he wasn't that good.And a number of prognosticators have this guy going in the first round? Am I missing something here? He played below average ball in a conference not known for its defense. OK. Back to the matter at hand. Whoever (Iowa State or Kansas State) wins the showdown in Kansas City on October 3rd, will have a great shot at getting to a bowl game and wiping the taste of an awful season from their palates.

The team(s) you should be selling are...

Missouri and Texas Tech
I've already examined the myriad of personnel losses Missouri is facing heading into 2009, but I can't emphasize how much Missouri will miss those skill position players. A bowl bid is a distinct possibility, but definitely not assured. Texas Tech will also be breaking in new skill position talent, and it should also be noted that the Red Raiders were very fortunate in one-score games last season. Their victories over Nebraska, Texas, and Baylor were by a combined 19 points and were all decided late. If the Red Raiders were a little less fortunate, that 7-1 breakthrough is just another ho-hum 5-3. The home schedule outside of Oklahoma (and who knows, the Red Raiders have beaten the Sooners the past two times in Lubbock) is very winnable, but if Texas Tech breaks even on the road in conference play (Texas, Nebraska, Oklahoma State, and Baylor), 2009 will have to be considered a success.

The team(s) you should be holding are...

Baylor
Believe me, no one is rooting for the Bears more so then yours truly. However, Baylor's first bowl bid since 1994 will probably have to wait until at least 2010. For starters, despite showing substantial improvement under Art Briles, the Bears were still only the fifth best team in their division. Quarterback Robert Griffin certainly gives the casual fan a reason to watch Baylor. I know as a Wake fan, I am certainly glad Kirby Freeman started the opener in Waco. Still, even with Griffin, the Bears finished eleventh in the Big 12 in offense, beating out only Colorado. The bad news for Baylor is that they only managed two conference wins despite an outstanding turnover margin of +11 in Big 12 play (second to Oklahoma at +14). The primary reason for that great turnover margin was the fact that Baylor had only five turnovers in their eight conference games. Part of that was the efficient play of Griffin, who threw only three interceptions in conference play, and part of it was the fact that Baylor only lost six of their twenty fumbles on the season. Griffin will probably throw more interceptions in 2009 (see Colt McCoy in 2007) and the Bears will certainly fail to recover 70% of their own fumbles. More turnovers are bad for any team, but especially for teams operating at a distinct talent disadvantage like Baylor. Another factor, and this will be the case for the foreseeable future, is the schedule. The Bears four conference home games are against Oklahoma State, Nebraska, Texas, and Texas Tech, all of which are likely bowl teams. The road schedule is not much easier with trips to Oklahoma, Iowa State, Missouri, and Texas A&M on the horizon. The Bears did beat Iowa State and Texas A&M in Waco last season, but the Bears have just two road wins since joining the Big 12 in 1996! The non-conference schedule will give the Bears a chance at a fast start (Wake Forest, Connecticut, Northwestern State, and Kent State), but barring multiple league upsets, Baylor will be home for the holidays yet again.

Big 10 Review 2005-2008

In addition to the SDPI posts, another offseason interest of mine has been to look at how each IA conference has shaken out since 2005. I chose 2005 as the starting point because that was the year the ACC expanded to 12 teams, the Big East added 3 new members and booted Temple, Conference USA added a championship game, the Mountain West added TCU, the WAC looted the Sun Belt after several of its members joined Conference USA, and the Sun Belt added 2 independents from Florida (FAU and FIU). Since 2005, there has only been one change in any IA conference. That was the expansion of the MAC by a single team with the addition of Temple. We've already examined both the ACC and the Big East, so now we'll turn our attention to every southern man's favorite whipping boy--the Big 10. First here are the cummlative Big 10 standings since 2005.Surprise. Surprise. The Ohio State Buckeyes, who have won or shared the conference title every season since 2005 have the league's best record. Two of their three losses during that span have come to the league's second best team--Penn State. I find it a little odd that only four of the league's eleven teams have an overall winning conference record since 2005. In fact, only Ohio State has had a winning conference record each season. Penn State went 4-4 in 2007, and every other team in the conference has had at least one year with a losing record in conference play.

Now here is each team's home record in conference play since 2005.Not surprisingly, the teams with the best overall record has defended their home turf well. Ohio State and Penn State have both won 14 of their 16 conference home games since 2005. What is a little surprising is that Ohio State has lost only once on the road in conference play. That means they have twice as many home losses as road losses! If you've read the other league wrap-ups, you may remember that the other tops teams are just as good on the road as they are at home. West Virginia has the exact same home and road conference record while Virginia Tech is only one game better at home against the ACC than they are on the road. Perhaps this is an indication that homefield advantage means less to elite teams. That is, they enjoy the proverbial bullseye they take with them on the road and are actually just as likely to fall asleep and lose to a lesser team at home as they are to fall to a motivated underdog on the road. As the other conference breakdowns come, we'll see if this is an actual trend or just a function of the order of the breakdowns. The biggest discrepancy between home and road record belongs to Penn State and Wisconsin. The Nittany Lions are 14-2 in Happy Valley, but a rather mediocre 9-7 away from home. Meanwhile, Wisconsin is 13-3 in Madison (with two home losses in 2008), but a below average 7-9 away from home. Among bad teams, Indiana has the biggest discrepancy as they are a somewhat dangerous 6-10 at home, but only 2-14 away from home.

Now here is how homefield advantage shakes out in the Big 10 (in conference play only) with respect to the nation at large (with rank out of the 11 IA conferences in parentheses).Overall, the Big 10 has been mediocre in terms of homefield advantage. However, it is interesting to note that while the ACC and Big East have had their whipping boys (Duke and Syracuse are a combined 3-27 at home versus conference foes the past four seasons), the Big 10 teams with the worst home records are Illinois and Minnesota at 5-11. That winning percentage is more than three times the mark of the aforementioned Blue Devils and Orange.

Next up is how each Big 10 team stacks up offensively for each season. This is the ranking of yards per game in conference play. There's a lot of ebb and flow for the offenses in the Big 10. Two of the top three offenses from 2005 (Northwestern and Michigan State) ended up being the bottom two offenses in 2006. The next season, they both rebounded to rank in the top three once again. Illinois went from being one of the worst offenses in the conference at the beginning of the Ron Zook era to one of the league's best. Call it the 'Juice Effect'. This table and the subsequent one for defense show which side of the ball Ohio State and Penn State have used to dominate the conference (hint: its not offense). This table also shows a disturbing trend for Michigan at the conclusion of the Lloyd Carr era. Rich Rod was unable to reverse that course during his first season on the job.

And finally, here are the defensive rankings for each team. This is yards allowed per game in conference play.Why did Michigan fall from perennial bowl team to also-ran in 2008? The defense fell apart. As we noted earlier, the offense had been in a steady decline at the end of Lloyd Carr's tenure. However, the defense remained among the best in the conference and kept Michigan near the top of the league standings. When the defense degenerated and the offense remained stagnant, the Wolverines fell to the bottom of the standings. The Buckeyes have owned the defensive side of the ball throughout Jim Tressel's tenure, and when the offense cooperates (see the number one ranking in 2006), an undefeated season is sure to follow. Besides Ohio State and Penn State, the rest of the conference has seemed to alternate strong defensive showings with mediocre to weak performances. That is of course, with the exception of Indiana, Minnesota, and Northwestern. The Hoosiers have finished last in defense once and never fared better than eighth in the conference in yards allowed. Minnesota has finished last twice, with their best placing being seventh. Northwestern has yet to finish last, but they have been between seventh and tenth each season. This is somewhat ironic considering they are coached by a former linebacker.

Big 10 2008 SDPI

One of my favorite set of posts from the past two offseasons has been the SDPI recap/early preview. Don't know what SDPI is? It stands for Standard Deviation Power Index and is a tool Eddie Epstein used in his book Dominance to rate pro football's best teams. The basic idea is to look at how far above or below average (by standard deviations) a specific team is relative to their conference brethren. Since each team plays the same number of conference games, it can give us a good idea about who the best team was within the conference. However, it cannot tell us which conference is better. But the purpose of these posts is not to determine which conference is superior, but rather project ahead which teams in a conference will be contenders or also rans in the upcoming season. In the first post on SDPI two years ago, I calculated SDPI based on points scored and allowed within conference play. Last season I used points scored and allowed as well as yards gained and allowed. This season, I'm sticking with yards only. The yardage version of SDPI has a better correlation with future performance than points, and including both last season made the post seem (at least to me) quite muddled. Of course, this is by no means, the end all be all rating system, but it can give us an idea of which teams will improve and decline in 2009. We've already looked at the ACC and Big East, so now its time to turn our attention to the midwest and examine the Big 10.

If you want the meat of the article, skip this next paragraph as it just gives an example of how SDPI is calculated. The mean yardage for and against for all Big 10 teams in conference play was 2813.64 yards. The standard deviation for yards gained was 385.46. The standard deviation for yards allowed was 447.15. Iowa gained 2917 yards in conference play and allowed 2452 Their offensive SDPI was 0.27 = ([2917-2813.64]/385.46). Their defensive SDPI was 0.81 = ([2813.64-2452]/447.15). Their total SDPI was 1.08 which ranked 4th in the conference.

To refresh your memory, here are the 2008 Big 10 Standings.

Now here are the 2008 SDPI Standings sorted by total SDPI, with conference rank in offense, defense, and total SDPI in parentheses.

Penn State was clearly the best team in the Big 10 last season, posting the second best offense and number one defense in the conference. However, what really jumps out, at least to me, is the high finishes by both Illinois and Wisconsin. According to SDPI, the Illini and Badgers, who both finished 3-5 in conference play, were among the top three teams in the Big 10 in terms of performance on a down-to-down basis. However, that performance did not translate to achievement on the scoreboard. Illinois finished first in the Big 10 in yards gained, but only fourth in points scored thanks a defense that rarely gave the offense good field position by forcing turnovers (last in forced turnovers with 12 in conference play) and a special teams unit that ranked 93rd nationally in punt return average and 63rd in kickoff return average. Meanwhile, Wisconsin saw a disconnect on the other side of the ball. Their defense ranked a respectable fourth in the conference in yards allowed, but a deplorable ninth in points allowed. The offense contributed to the poor showing of the defense by leading the conference with 22 turnovers. Opposing Big 10 kickers also torched the Badgers, making all 13 of their field goal tries. Further down the standings, we see that Minnesota, despite their bowl appearance after a winless conference campaign, still has a long way to go to achieve mediocrity and that Michigan was very bad last season.

Best Offense: Illinois 1.57
The Illini moved the ball well against everyone. They topped 500 yards of offense three times in league play, but amazingly lost one of those games (Minnesota) thanks to three turnovers.

Worst Offense: Minnesota -1.46
Remember the Glen Mason era, when the Gophers could pound the ball with the best of 'em? Minnesota cracked the 100-yard rushing barrier in just two conference games, and averaged only 78 yards per game and 2.56 yards per rush in conference play, easily the worst in the Big 10.

Best Defense: Penn State 1.20
Until Southern Cal dismantled them in the Rose Bowl, this really looked like one of the best defensive units in the nation. Only three conference foes eclipsed the 300-yard mark, and only Illinois was within sniffing distance of 400 yards (372).

Worst Defense: Indiana -2.14
The Hoosiers were definitely the anti-Penn State. Only two Big 10 teams failed to gain at least 400 yards against the Hoosiers woeful defense.

Hardest Schedule (based on cumulative SDPI of opponents): Indiana 4.55
Believe me, this is the only spot where the Hoosiers have a shot at finishing number one. The Hoosiers faced eight of the top nine teams in the Big 10, and the only way the schedule could have been more difficult would have been to swap in Ohio State for Minnesota. Of course, it also helps that the Hoosiers had no way of playing themselves as they were easily the worst team in the conference.

Easiest Schedule (based on cumulative SDPI of opponents): Purdue -4.02
The schedule was set up to send Joe Tiller out a winner, but fate (and poor special teams which we'll get to later) intervened. Purdue played the three worst teams in the conference (Minnesota, Michigan, and Indiana), and not surprisingly, their two conference wins happened to come in those games.

Entire Schedule Strength (hardest to easiest)
Indiana 4.55
Michigan 4.43
Ohio State 1.29
Michigan State 1.06
Minnesota 0.43
Iowa 0.13
Penn State -0.15
Illinois -1.84
Wisconsin -2.16
Northwestern -3.80
Purdue -4.02

Looking ahead to next season, the prohibitive favorite should be...

Ohio State
I know statistically the Buckeyes were only fifth in SDPI, and this was likely the worst Buckeye team since 2004. However, Ohio State was one Terrelle Pryor fumble from winning their third straight outright Big 10 title and playing in the Rose Bowl. Pryor put up good numbers as a true freshman, rushing for over 600 yards and posting a passer rating of 145.62, which would have ranked 21st in the nation if he had enough attempts to qualify. Pryor should improve in 2009, and even if he never achieves the zenith most recruiting gurus think he will, he is an obvious upgrade over Todd Boeckman. Next season, the Buckeyes must play the four teams that finished above them in SDPI (Penn State, Illinois, Wisconsin, and Iowa). Each of those teams save Penn State must travel to Columbus. And speaking of Penn State, while the Lions were clearly the best team in 2008, attrition will likely prevent them from being the best team in 2009. The Lions will be breaking in a new quarterback to replace departing senior Daryll Clark. The Lions will also be without their top three receivers from 2008 and three of their top five tacklers. Winning in State College will be no gimme for the Buckeyes in 2009, but Penn State will likely find themselves on the wrong end of a few conference games as well.

The team(s) you should be buying are...

Illinois, Purdue, and Wisconsin
I discussed earlier how on a down-to-down basis the Illini were the second best team in the Big 10 last season. But as they say, a picture is worth a thousand words. See if you can guess from the table below during which season Illinois went to the Rose Bowl and during which season they missed a bowl game entirely. As you've probably already guessed, the more statistically dominant season is the one where the Illini did not make it to postseason play. The biggest difference between the six win conference season of 2007 and the three win conference season of 2008 is turnovers and random chance. The Illini were +7 (second in the Big 10) in turnover margin in conference play in 2007 and 3-1 in one-score conference games. In 2008, they were -4 (eighth in the Big 10) in turnover margin in conference play and 1-1 in one-score conference games. Both those trends have a good chance of reversing themselves in 2009 and the Illini should return to a bowl game. Another team that was better than their record indicated in 2008 was the Purdue Boilermakers. In Joe Tiller's swan song, Purdue performed from down-to-down at about their usual rate. They were fifth in the conference in offense and fifth in defense. Unfortunately, their punt coverage units let them down. Purdue gave up three punt return touchdowns on the season (two in conference play) and was dead last in the nation (120th) at covering punts, allowing 16.7 yards per return. That's not to say Purdue was unlucky in covering punts, they were plain bad, but performance in special teams is not as consistent year-to-year as performance on offense and defense. That's great news for new head coach Danny Hope and all Purdue fans. One area where Purdue was exceptionally unlucky was at recovering their own fumbles. Purdue fumbled only 12 times in 2008 (tied for sixth in the nation for fewest fumbles), but were only able to fall on two of them. Purdue was last in the nation in percentage of own fumbles recovered. Unlike special teams, fumble recovery is totally random, so you can bet Purdue will have better luck corralling loose balls next season. With better special teams play, some improved luck, and a competent quarterback under center, Purdue should be back to a mid-level bowl game next season. We've already touched on some of the reasons Wisconsin is poised for a rebound in 2009, but another factor to add to the equation is their poor luck in close games in 2008. Wisconsin was involved in four one-score Big 10 games in 2008, and was victorious in only one. The Badgers lost by two points to Michigan, three points to Ohio State, and by a single point to Michigan State. Their luck in close games should improve and if quarterback Dustin Sherer makes any progress in his senior season, the Badgers could be a darkhorse contender for the Big 10 title.

The team(s) you should be selling are...

Michigan State and Minnesota
After posting much better numbers than their 3-5 conference record would indicate in 2007, the Spartans reversed course and finished well above where a team with their middling numbers should hae been expected. The Spartans went 6-2 in the Big 10 despite being outgained by about 36 yards per game in conference play. Their offense, despite the presence of Javon Ringer was the eighth best in the conference, and the defense was also eighth in yards allowed. So how did Michigan State manage to win all those games? For starters they were 2-0 in one-score games. Their one-score games also happened to occur against Iowa and Wisconsin, two of the better teams on the schedule. Their turnover margin was another reason for their success. While they were only -1 for the season in conference play (sixth in the Big 10), once we remove their two blowout losses to Ohio State and Penn State, that margin jumps to +6. The only other conference game in which they had a negative turnover margin was against Purdue. Michigan State was already outclassed against the Buckeyes and Lions, so the turnovers merely served to make their beatings more embarrassing. However, against teams of similar or less ilk (Indiana, Iowa, Northwestern, Michigan, and Wisconsin), the extra turnovers allowed the Spartans to win despite their failings on a down-to-down basis. In 2009, the Spartans will be breaking in a brand new backfield as both Ringer and quarterback Brian Hoyer have exhausted their eligibility. The offense, which wasn't that good to begin with, will probably remain near the bottom of the conference. The defense will likely see some improvement as four of the top five tacklers return as does the best playmaker on the line, defensive end Trevor Anderson. The Spartans luck will likely find some balance between their devine providence in 2008 and their poor fortune in 2007. Expect their conference record to strike some counterbalance between 2007 and 2008 as well, but the Spartans are by no means Rose Bowl contenders. Until November, it looked like the Golden Gophers had turned the proverbial corner. At the end of October, they were 7-1 (3-1) in the Big 10, and memories of a winless conference season in 2007 were forgotten. Then the Gophers dropped their last four conference games and were bludgeoned by Kansas in their bowl game. What happened? The turnovers stopped coming. To be fair, Minnesota did not play as well on offense or defense over their last four conference games, but being outgained on average by about 62 yards per game is not the mark of a team that wins 75% of its games. All told, Minnesota was last in the conference in offense and ninth in defense. The offense has a great chance at improving with players such as quarterback Adam Weber and receiver Eric Decker, but the Gophers have a long way to go on both sides of the ball to be average.

The team(s) you should be holding are...

Michigan
Yes Michigan really was that bad in 2008. Only Minnesota posted a worse offense, and only Indiana performed worse on defense. Michigan has a long way to go to get back to where they were, but unlike Minnesota and Indiana, they have a brand name, and a proven coach. Rich Rod's first team at West Virginia went only 3-8. His next six teams never won fewer than eight games. Michigan may well miss out on a bowl once again in 2009, but in the long run, Rich Rod will right the program.

Big East Review: 2005-2008

In addition to the SDPI posts, another offseason interest of mine has been to look at how each IA conference has shaken out since 2005. I chose 2005 as the starting point because that was the year the ACC expanded to 12 teams, the Big East added 3 new members and booted Temple, Conference USA added a championship game, the Mountain West added TCU, the WAC looted the Sun Belt after several of its members joined Conference USA, and the Sun Belt added 2 independents from Florida (FAU and FIU). Since 2005, there has only been one change in any IA conference. That was the expansion of the MAC by a single team with the addition of Temple. A few weeks ago, we looked at the ACC since 2005. Now, we shall turn our attention to the league that the ACC pillaged and allegedly left in ruins--the Big East. First here are the cummlative Big East standings since 2005. West Virginia has thoroughly dominated the league since 2005. Their record is five games clear of second place Rutgers, and interestingly, they are the only team to have a winning record in conference play in each season since 2005. It also pays to mention here that the Big East has done pretty well for itself since being left for dead following the exodus of Boston College, Miami, and Virginia Tech. The conference has won three of its four BCS bowl games since 2005, two of them as heavy underdogs. In addition, if not for one gaffe by its eventual conference in champion in 2006 and again in 2007, the Big East winner would have been playing for all the marbles in early January. Big East teams have also posted a respectable 13-7 record in bowl games since 2005. How has the Big East been able to maintain a BCS-worthy level of success since losing three of its marquee programs?
1. Its members have hired good coaches (for the most part).
While Rich Rod was hired before the the exodus, he is an example of an excellent coaching hire as he put the Mountaineers in position to contend for not only a conference, but national title as well. Brian Kelly is another up-and-comer who may eventually prove to be too big for Cincinnati, but for the time being, he has been an upgrade over Mark Dantonio (though that is in no way an insult to Dantonio). Randy Edsall is another solid coach, who has guided Connecticut as they have transitioned from IAA newbie to BCS conference team in only a decade. And who can forget Greg Schiano, who has done his best Bill Snyder impression, and made Rutgers a legitimate threat to win the conference. Of course, there have been some questionable hires as well (Greg Robinson, Bill Stewart, and Dave Wannstedt to name a few), but for the most part, the positions have been filled with competent men.
2. They grabbed the right teams from Conference USA.
Cincinnati is a large state-supported institution in a football crazed state. Louisville was arguably the best team in Conference USA when they were poached by the Big East. South Florida may have been a reach at the time as they were only 4-7 in their second season of play in Conference USA, but the Bulls, like the Bearcats, are a large state-supported school in a football hotbed.
3. They gave Temple the boot.
The Owls have very little in the way of gridiron history, so throwing them out was addition by subtraction.

Now here is each team's home record in conference play since 2005. West Virginia has defended its homefield very well, with an 11-3 record (tops in the league), but it should also be noted they also have the exact same record on the road! Every team except Syracuse has a winning record at home. The biggest discrepancy between home and road record belongs to the either the Connecticut Huskies or the Louisville Cardinals. Connecticut is a solid 8-6 at home since 2005, but only 3-11 on the road (with two of the wins coming this past season against basement dwellars Louisville and Syracuse). Louisville has gone 10-4 at home since 2005 (9-1 before their disastrous 1-3 home record in 2008), but only 5-9 away from Papa John's Stadium.

Now here is how homefield advantage shakes out in the Big East (in conference play only) with respect to the nation at large (with rank out of the 11 IA conferences in parentheses). As you can see, with the exception of 2007, the Big East has consistently been one of the most home-friendly conferences. From 2005-2008, they rank behind only the Big 12 in homefield advantage, with home teams winning nearly 60% of the time in conference showdowns. If we remove the record of the moribund Orange from Syracuse, that number climbs to 66.2% (nearly two wins for every one loss).

Next up is how each Big East team stacks up offensively for each season. This is the ranking of yards per game in conference play.Even with the loss of offensive guru Bobby Petrino following the 2006 season, Louisville has remained among the most prolific offenses in the league. The reason for their decline will be revealed in the next paragraph. The influence Brian Kelly has had on the Cincinnati offense is readily apparent as they have finished in the top three in offense in the conference during both of his seasons as head coach despite starting a new quarterback in 2007 (Ben Mauk) and several new quarterbacks in 2008. One remarkable fact is the consistency with which several teams have finished in the final offensive rankings. Syracuse has been dead last each season, Pitt has been fifth three times in four seasons, Connecticut has finished seventh three times in four seasons, and South Florida has fnished third or fourth each season.

And finally, here are the defensive rankings for each team. This is yards allowed per game in conference play.While the majority of the offenses in the Big East have been very consistent, the defenses have been the exact opposite. One season after finishing last in the conference in defense (2006), Pitt regrouped and posted the best defense in the league. Connecticut nearly equaled that feat by posting the second worst defense in 2007 (thank you Syracuse) and rebounding to feature the league'e best defense in 2008. Cincinnati has also gone from terrible (2005), to good (2006), to below average (2007), and back to good again (2008). Rutgers has also seen their defense go from a strength (2005-2007) to a relative weakness. However, the biggest dropoff has been from the Louisville Cardinals.The Cardinals allowed about 100 more yards per game to Big East foes than they did in 2005. It also doesn't help that their turnover margin has been trending downward at the same time.It's been a perfect storm of attrition, injuries, and turnovers that has Steve Kragthorpe squarely on the hot seat in 2009.

Big East 2008 SDPI

One of my favorite set of posts from the past two offseasons has been the SDPI recap/early preview. Don't know what SDPI is? It stands for Standard Deviation Power Index and is a tool Eddie Epstein used in his book Dominance to rate pro football's best teams. The basic idea is to look at how far above or below average (by standard deviations) a specific team is relative to their conference brethren. Since each team plays the same number of conference games, it can give us a good idea about who the best team was within the conference. However, it cannot tell us which conference is better. But the purpose of these posts is not to determine which conference is superior, but rather project ahead which teams in a conference will be contenders or also rans in the upcoming season. In the first post on SDPI two years ago, I calculated SDPI based on points scored and allowed within conference play. Last season I used points scored and allowed as well as yards gained and allowed. This season, I'm sticking with yards only. The yardage version of SDPI has a better correlation with future performance than points, and including both last season made the post seem (at least to me) quite muddled. Of course, this is by no means, the end all be all rating system, but it can give us an idea of which teams will improve and decline in 2009. Last time we looked at the ACC. In this post we'll examine the Big East and see what the conference has in store for 2009.

If you want the meat of the article, skip this next paragraph as it just gives an example of how SDPI is calculated. The mean yardage for and against for all Big East teams in conference play was 2379.88 yards. The standard deviation for yards gained was 321.16. The standard deviation for yards allowed was 302.12. Pitt gained 2425 yards in conference play and allowed 50 Their offensive SDPI was 0.14 = ([2425-2379.88]/321.16). Their defensive SDPI was 0.43 = ([2379.88-2250]/302.12). Their total SDPI was 0.57 which ranked 3rd in the conference.

To refresh your memory, here are the 2008 Big East Standings.

Now here are the 2008 SDPI Standings sorted by total SDPI, with conference rank in offense, defense, and total SDPI in parentheses.

Cincinnati and Rutgers were effectively tied at the top of the league, with the Bearcats owning the top spot by the slimmest of margins. Cincinnati did it with great balance, boasting the league's third ranked offense and second ranked defense. Rutgers had the league's best offense (by a wide margin), but a slightly below average defense. SDPI also shows how close together the middle of the conference was clustered. The teams ranked third through sixth (Pitt, South Florida, Connecticut, and West Virginia) were all within six tenths of a standard deviation. It should be no surprise then, that four of the six games between these four teams were decided by six points or less.

Best Offense: Rutgers 1.42
In their first three conference games, the Knights averaged 273 yards per game and scored 39 points (1-2 record). Over their last four conference games, the Knights averaged 504 yards per game and did not score fewer than 35 points in any one game (4-0 record). The most shocking offensive statistic in the Big East is that West Virginia, with Pat White, finished sixth in th league in offense!

Worst Offense: Syracuse -1.96
The Orange averaged 306 yards per game over their first four league games (still would have ranked last in the conference), but over their final three games they broke the 200 yard barrier only once and average a paltry 175 yards per game.

Best Defense: Connecticut 1.09
If only they had a passing attack to compliment the defense and running back Donald Brown.

Worst Defense: Louisville -1.75
Yes even worse than Syracuse. In fact, these guys were more than half a standard deviation worse than the Orange. After playing decent defense in their first four conference games (allowed 334 yards per game), injuries and fatigue caught up with the Cardinals as they allowed 525 yards per game over their final three.

Looking ahead to next season, the prohibitive favorite should be...

There is no prohibitive favorite.
If the Big East is anything in 2009, it is a league in flux. League champion Cincinnati loses a pair of talented 1000-yard receivers, the G-Unit if you will, in Marshwan Gilyard and Dominick Goodman, as well as their top-5 tacklers and number one sack man (defensive end Connor Barwin) from a defense that was the second best in the league. Connecticut will be without the services of workhorse running back Donald Brown (first in the nation in rush yards and second in rush attempts in 2008) who departed left early for the NFL. Louisville loses a solid senior quarterback in Hunter Cantwell from an offense that was the second best in the Big East last season. And of course, it bears mentioning that the defense will have to improve substantially to be mediocre. Like Connecticut, Pitt is also victimized by a running back leaving school early for the riches of the NFL. LeSean McCoy (1488 rushing yards) is gone, and his backup, the diminutive LaRod Stephens-Howling, has exhausted his eligibility. Rutgers must break in a new starting quarterback in 2009, but the biggest loss is likely junior receiver Kenny Britt (averaged 130 yards receiving in the Scarlet Knight's 7-game win streak to end the year), another early entrant to the NFL. South Florida may be poised to make a run at the conference title, but it should be noted they have yet to win more than four conference games since joining the Big East. West Virginia loses one of the best collegiate quarterbacks ever, and is still coached by Bill Stewart. And Syracuse, well they suck. If you are trying to pick a favorite for next season, take a seven-sided die (sans the Orange of course) and give it a throw.

The team(s) you should be buying are...

Connecticut and South Florida
Yes Connecticut loses their star running back Donald Brown and senior quarterback Tyler Lorenzen. However, three starting offensive linemen return to block, likely for either sophomore Jordan Todman (averaged over 6 yards per carry in limited action last season) or senior Andre Dixon who was slated to be the starter in 2008 (2nd Team All Big East in 2007 with over 800 yards rushing). The running game should suffer a bit of a decline, but conversely, even without Lorenzen, the passing game has nowhere to go but up. As a team, the Huskies ranked 110th in the nation in completion percentage, 106th in yards per pass, 117th in touchdown passes, and 117th in quarterback rating. And let's not forget the defense, which was statistically the best in the Big East in 2008. Five of the team's top-6 tacklers return, so despite the loss of both defensive ends (Julius Williams and Cody Brown combined for 17 sacks in 2008), the defense should remain among the best in the conference. Despite beginning the year 5-0, and finding themselves ranked as high as number 10 at the end of September, the South Florida Bulls managed only a 2-5 record in Big East play. They failed to win a conference game on the road, and managed only a split of their four conference home games. Half of their league wins came against moribund league doormat Syracuse, and the other was a squeaker over Connecticut. So why do the Bulls stand a good chance at improving next season? As mentioned previously, between the top (Cincinnati and Rutgers) and bottom (Louisville and Syracuse) of the league, there wasn't a whole lot of difference between Pittsburgh, South Florida, Connecticut, and West Virginia, at least on a down-to-down basis. In fact, based on SDPI, the Bulls were the fourth best team in the conference. Unfortunately for South Florida, they were beset by a poor turnover margin (-6 in conference play, ahead of only Louisville) and just plain bad luck (1-3 record in one-score conference games). Both those trends should improve in 2009 and give the Bulls a winning record in Big East play and a shot at the conference title. And that conference title shot may well come down to the play of senior quarterback Matt Grothe. Grothe is a little overrated, as he is nowhere near the caliber of uber-stars and Heisman contenders like Tim Tebow, Colt McCoy, and Sam Bradford, but he is an above average quarterback. In my opinion, the biggest knock on Grothe is that he has not improved. The table below lists Grothe's key passing stats in his three seasons as a starter. See if you can pick out which seasons are his freshman, sophomore, and junior campaigns.Year A is his sophomore year, Year B is his junior season, and Year C is his freshman campaign. Basically Grothe is the same player he was when he entered South Florida, albeit now his arm shoulders a larger burden of the team's offense. If Grothe can cut down on his turnovers (12 of his 15 interceptions in 2008 came in Big East play), and maintain his solid completion rate, the Bulls could very well rise to the pinnacle of the Big East.

The team(s) you should be selling are...

West Virginia
Bill Stewart is a hard guy not to pull for. In an age where many coaches (I'm looking at you Bobby Petrino) are out looking for number one, Stewart realizes what an honor and privilege it is to coach college football and be paid handsomely to do it. Unfortunately, I'm not sure he is good at what he does. Stewart took over a West Virginia squad that brought back a talented senior quarterback (Pat White) along with a sophomore speedster (Noel Devine) and proceeded to produce the sixth best offense in an eight team league. The defense also regressed (fifth in the conference), but this was somewhat expected as only four starters returned from the 2007 unit. Believe me, West Virginia was very lucky to go 5-2 in Big East play last season. Their biggest ally in 2008 was their turnover margin (first in Big East play at +11). Five Connecticut turnovers turned a close game (West Virginia trailed 13-7 at half) into a 35-13 Mountaineer romp and five Louisville turnovers allowed West Virginia to emerge victorious from a 7-all halftime tie to win 35-21. Does West Virginia deserve credit for forcing those turnovers? Absolutely. But, this fact remains, teams with a good turnover margin one season tend to see that margin reduced the next season and vice-versa. Add to that, the fact that White will be absent from the Mountaineer backfield and West Virginia should have its first season of more than two conference losses since 2001.

The team(s) you should be holding are...

Pitt and Rutgers
As mentioned earlier, LeSean McCoy's departure leaves a gaping hole in the Pitt backfield. Even with McCoy, the Panther offense was only the fifth best in the conference. Without him, the onus of the offense falls to quarterback Bill Stull who has yet to prove he is anything more than an average (at best player). Pitt's defense did finish third in the league in 2008, but it was still well below the top two units at Connecticut and Cincinnati. In addition, four of the top-5 tacklers from that unit are gone, so we'll have to wait and see if Wanny's recruits are ready to step in. After beginning the season 1-5, with the lone win coming against IAA Morgan State, the Scarlet Knights streaked to the finish line by winning seven in a row, only two of which were by fewer than 18 points. The main difference in the streak? The play of senior quarterback Mike Teel who went from terrible to offensive player of the year. Seriously. Take a look at the numbers. If you prorate the final seven games over a whole season, Teel is easily the best quarterback in the conference. Alas, Teel and his top-target, wide receiver Kenny Britt, as well as receiver Tiquan Underwood (494 yards in 2008) and tight end Kevin Brock (300 yards in 2008), will be gone in 2009. The Knights also lose their leading tackler on defense (linebacker Kevin Malast), a pair of strong defensive tackles who led the team in sacks (Jamaal Westerman) and tackles for loss (Pete Tverdov), and the only gentlemen in the secondary with multiple interceptions (Jason McCourty and Courtney Greene). The Knights have a lot of pieces to replace, but after seeing the job he did in righting the ship, not just after the 1-5 start in 2008, but overall, its hard not to have faith in Greg Schiano.