Mountain West SDPI

7 down, 4 to go. This week, we'll review what happened in the Mountain West in 2009, the second year in a row the mid-major league placed a team in a BCS Bowl.

This first paragraph will explain how SDPI is calculated. So if you want the meat of this article skip on down. In the 2009 Mountain West regular season, conference play only, the average Mountain West team gained and allowed 2901.67 yards. The standard deviation for yards gained (offense) was 502.05 yards. The standard deviation for yards allowed (defense) was 541.12 yards. BYU gained 3455 yards and allowed 2712 yards. Their offensive SDPI was 1.10 = [(3455-2901.67)/502.05]. Their defensive SDPI was 0.35 = [(2901.67-2712)/541.12)]. Their total SDPI was 1.45. This number ranked 2nd in the Mountain West.

To refresh your memory, here are the 2009 Mountain West standings.
Now here are the 2009 Mountain West SDPI standings. The standings are sorted by total SDPI with ranking for each category (out of 9 teams) in parentheses.At the top of the league, the actual standings line up pretty well with the SDPI standings. When we get to the middle though, things are a little scattered. Wyoming, which was statistically one of the worst teams in the league (just a shade better than UNLV), broke even in conference play and actually won a bowl game. Similarly, Colorado State and San Diego State were statistically the class of the conference outside of the top-4, but both combined to win only 2 league games, with the Rams actually going winless in league play. The culprit as usual, was close games and turnovers. Wyoming was 3-0 in one-score conference games, besting UNLV, San Diego State, and Colorado State by a combined 7 points. The Cowboys were also pretty successful in the turnover department, going +4 in conference play, good for 3rd in the league. Meanwhile, Colorado State lost all 3 of their one-score league games, falling to Utah, New Mexico, and Wyoming by a combined 10 points. The Rams also finished -6 in turnover margin, tied for 2nd to last in the league. San Diego State did not fare quite as poorly in close games, going 1-2 against their Mountain West foes, but they had by far the worst turnover margin in conference play finishing at -12.

Conference Superlatives

Best Offense: TCU 2.03
The Horned Frogs seemed to get better as the year progressed. After averaging 435 yards and 34 points in their first 3 conference games, TCU cranked those numbers up to 523 yards and 49 points over their final 5. They also hit the infamous 'double nickel' twice in wins over San Diego State and Utah.

Worst Offense: Wyoming -1.35
The Cowboys averaged under 300 yards per game in league play (278) and were held below 250 yards 5 times. Not surprisingly, the Cowboys went 1-4 in those games.

Best Defense: TCU 1.96
In an amazing feat, no Mountain West team topped the 300-yard mark against TCU. BYU came the closest, gaining 298 yards in their 31-point home loss to the Frogs.

Worst Defense: UNLV -1.26
Save for a stellar showing against New Mexico, when they allowed a season low (vs IA teams) 287 yards, other Mountain West teams had an easy go of it. Their other 7 conference opponents averaged 471 yards against the Rebel defense.

What's in Store for Next Year?
The battle at the top in 2010 should look much the same as it has for the past several seasons. TCU, BYU, and Utah should battle for league supremacy. TCU and Utah have the edge over the Cougars who are losing both their starting quarterback, who has exhausted his eligibility, and their starting running back, who violated the school's honor code. Air Force is once again poised to be the 4th bets team in the Mountain West, though its not inconceivable for them to overtake BYU if they catch some breaks. With 4 bowl slots likely spoken for, which team is most likely to rise from the mire and qualify for the postseason? I'd say take your pick from San Diego State, Colorado State, and if you're feeling very lucky UNLV. San Diego State and Colorado State were much stronger than their wins and losses showed last season. San Diego State brings back more talent on offense, but the Rams bring back more on defense. While UNLV was statistically the worst team in the league last season, they made one of the better coaching hires in the offseason by luring Bobby Hauck away from Montana. While at Montana, Hauck led the Grizzlies to the playoffs in each of his 7 seasons, thrice taking them to the I-AA Championship Game. Of course, the last successful Montana coach to come to the Mountain West (Hauck's predecessor as Grizzlies coach, Joe Glenn) didn't exactly work out. Elsewhere, Wyoming seems poised to take a dip after achieving far more than their middling peripherals would indicate. And finally, at the bottom of the league, we have Los Lobos. It wasn't that long ago that New Mexico was the clear cut 4th fiddle in the league, finishing bowl eligible for 7 consecutive seasons from 2001-2007 under Rocky Long. However, the Lobos suffered through some poor luck and finished 4-8 in 2008. Then in 2009, they were just plain poor, winning only a single game and dropping to 1-11. Their SDPI numbers didn't suggest they were much better and with a new quarterback throwing to inexperienced receivers, 2010 doesn't offer much hope.

WAC Recap: 2005-2009

We've blitzed through the 6 BCS leagues thus far in our 5-year recaps, so now we move to the little guys. We'll start with the WAC, a league that has been dominated not only for the past 5 seasons, but also for the past decade by Boise State.

First off, here are the combined WAC standings from 2005-2009.Boise State is a robust 10 games clear of the the second best team since 2005. The largest gap between a first and second place team from the BCS conferences in this same span is 7 games (Ohio State over Penn State in the Big 10). Boise is also an amazing 33 games better than last place New Mexico State. Similarly, the largest gap between a first and last place team from the BCS conferences in this span is 27 games (Ohio State over Indiana in the Big 10 and Virginia Tech over Duke in the ACC). I guess what I'm trying to get at is that Boise has been really, really good against their league. Outside of Boise, the 3-team upper class of Nevada, Hawaii, and Fresno have performed very well. If we remove games against each other (and Boise), those 3 teams are a combined 64-11 against the bottom 5 teams in the conference since 2005.

Now here is the standard deviation of each team's conference record (in wins). Teams are ranked from the most inconsistent to the least.Hawaii has been the most inconsistent team over the past 5 seasons. They have been great (8-0 in 2007), very good (7-1 in 2006), pretty good (5-3 in 2008), average (4-4 in 2005), and kinda bad (3-5 in 2009). Boise State has been the most consistent team in the conference, winning either 7 or 8 games in each season. New Mexico State has also been very consistent, albeit on the other end of the winning spectrum. The Aggies have rolled off 3 consecutive single win conference seasons.

Now here is each team's point differential in conference play since 2005.In an average conference game for Boise State over the past 5 seasons, the Broncos have won by a shade more than 25 points. Their scoring margin is nearly more than double that of the second best team. The scoring margins for the WAC teams line up identically with their position in the aggregate conference standings meaning no team has been exceptionally lucky or unlucky over the past 5 seasons.

With this being the end of the decade, here's the tally of conference titles.Boise State joined the WAC prior to the 2001 season. In 9 seasons of WAC football play, the Broncos have won 7 league titles (6 of them outright). Hawaii broke up their streak in 2007. Louisiana Tech captured the title in 2001, the Broncos first season of play in the WAC, and TCU (remember them?) won the WAC title in 2000 on the back of LaDainian Tomlinson. The Horned Frogs bolted the WAC after their league title and began playing in Conference USA before joining the Mountain West prior to the 2005 season.

And finally, what was the biggest takeway from the 00 decade in the WAC?
Without a doubt, its the dominance of Boise State. In 2001, the WAC opened its doors and allowed a relatively unknown school from Idaho into the fold. True, Boise State had posted consecutive 10-win seasons as a member of the Big West conference prior to joining the WAC, but its doubtful anyone could have envisioned what Boise would become by the end of the decade. Since joining the WAC, the Broncos have gone 102-15 overall, finished undefeated in the regular season 4 times, and won a pair of BCS bowl games. However, Boise's most impressive accomplishment since joining the WAC is their record at home against WAC foes. The Broncos have not lost a conference game at home, compiling a gaudy 36-0 record against the WAC. And with rare exceptions, they have not been challenged in doing so. The average home game against a WAC team has seen Boise score 50.1 points and their opponents score 15.8. Only thrice has a team come within one-score of Boise. Tulsa lost by 7 in 2003, Hawaii fell by 7 in 2006, and Nevada came the closest in 2007, losing by 2 in a 4 overtime classic (on a Sunday night no less). When a WAC team comes to Boise, rest assured, the lumber will be laid.

WAC SDPI

We've exhausted our coverage of the big boys in our sojourn through the 2009 college football season. Now we move on to the mid-major leagues. We'll start with examining the WAC, home of the biggest household name outside of the BCS leagues--Boise State.

This first paragraph will explain how SDPI is calculated. So if you want the meat of this article skip on down. In the 2009 WAC regular season, conference play only, the average WAC team gained and allowed 3315.33 yards. The standard deviation for yards gained (offense) was 765.77 yards. The standard deviation for yards allowed (defense) was 342.31 yards. Fresno St gained 3393 yards and allowed 3391 yards. Their offensive SDPI was 0.10 = [(3393-3315.33)/765.77]. Their defensive SDPI was -0.22 = [(3315.33-3391)/342.31]. Their total SDPI was -0.12. This number ranked 5th in the WAC.

To refresh your memory, here are the 2009 WAC standings.
Now here are the 2009 WAC SDPI standings. The standings are sorted by total SDPI with ranking for each category (out of 9 teams) in parentheses.Not surprisingly, Boise State rates out as the best team in the WAC, followed closely by Nevada. These numbers probably overrate Nevada a bit because they dominated the lesser teams on their schedule to such a degree. Unlike Boise, Nevada was unable to hang with the better teams they faced outside the WAC, losing to Notre Dame, Missouri, and SMU by a combined 80 points. The teams with the biggest discrepancies between the actual and SDPI standings are Louisiana Tech and Hawaii. The Bulldogs and Warriors ranked 3rd and 4th respectively in SDPI, yet both had identical 3-5 conference records. For Louisiana Tech, the culprit was close losses. 3 of their 5 losses came by a combined 5 points. In addition, their 3 conference wins all came by at least 21 points with an average margin of just over 31 points per game. For Hawaii, the culprit was turnovers. In league play, the Warriors boasted a turnover margin of -9, which was second to last. These turnovers (21 in league play) severely hampered their offense. Despite the fact that they finished 4th in the conference in yards gained, they were 7th in points scored.

Conference Superlatives

Best Offense: Nevada 1.41
Outside of their struggle (relatively speaking against Boise State), the Wolfpack curbstomped every other WAC team. They never gained fewer than 496 yards against another WAC foe and averaged over 573 yards in those other 7 games. They topped 600 yards in 3 of their 8 conference games.

Worst Offense: New Mexico St -1.87
The Aggies fielded perhaps the worst offense in all of Division IA. The Aggies peaked as an offense in their first game, when they rolled for 342 yards against Idaho. In their other 7 WAC games, they averaged 220 yards per game. And of course, who can forget their showing against Ohio State in Columbus, when they finished the game with 62 yards of total offense.

Best Defense: Boise State 1.69
As always, the Broncos do it with defense. Of course, that's not to say the Broncos were flawless on this end. Fresno State and Idaho both topped 500 yards against Boise. Fresno via the ground game (320 yards) and Idaho through the air (305 yards). In their other 6 conference games, Boise allowed their WAC foes an average of only 286 yards per game.

Worst Defense: New Mexico St -1.19
The Aggies pulled double duty at the bottom of the WAC. Their defense was not quite as bad as their offense (Idaho was was very close to them in terms of defensive ineptitude, while no one was close in terms of offensive performance), but that's damning with faint praise.

What's in Store for Next Year?
The race for first place in the WAC probably won't be very exciting. With a plethora of returning starters, Boise State looks poised to continue their dominance of the WAC. However, the race for second may end being quite contentious. Reigning silver medalist Nevada, returns 9 starters from the league's best offense and looks to continue Pistol-whipping their WAC foes. The biggest challenger to Nevada may end up being Louisiana Tech. The Bulldogs featured the second best defense in the WAC last season, but in 2010 they may unveil the league's most improved offense. Not only did they acquire Sonny Dykes, who helped run the spread at Texas Tech and who revived a dormant offense at Arizona, to replace Derek Dooley as head coach, but they also pried noted spread aficionado Tony Franklin from Middle Tennessee State where he helped drastically improve the Blue Raider offense in just one season. Louisiana Tech was also better than their record would indicate last season, so look no further than Ruston, Louisiana for your 2010 WAC sleeper. Another school that could challenge Nevada is Hawaii. The Warriors were also better than their poor conference record last season and with quarterback Bryant Moniz gaining valuable experience last season, the offense should be able to put more points on the board in 2010. Fresno State has long had the reputation of an elite WAC team, but the Bulldogs only have the 4th best WAC record since 2005 (stay tuned for more on this next week). The bad news for Fresno is they lose 3 of their top-4 receivers as well as running back Ryan Matthews who led the nation in rushing yards per game and decided to forgo his senior season to enter the NFL draft. Like Fresno, another team likely to take a step back in 2010 is Idaho. The Vandals were one of the best stories of the 2009 college football season, racking up 8 wins after winning just 9 in the previous 4 seasons. Still, the Vandals were a little lucky, going 5-1 in one-score games, and they still bested only New Mexico State in terms of defensive acumen in WAC play. And speaking of the Vandals, if there is one team poised to make an Idaho-like jump from obscurity to the postseason, its Utah State. The Aggies had a very tough non-conference schedule last season, losing to Utah, BYU, and Texas A&M all on the road. Within the league, they rated out as the 7th best team, but were within shouting distance of 2 teams that qualified for bowl games (Idaho and Fresno State). 2010 will mark the senior campaign for one of the best unknown quarterbacks in the nation, Diondre Borel of Utah State. Borel threw 17 touchdown passes against just 4 interceptions last season, and could end up being the best quarterback in the league outside of Kellen Moore (Boise State) and Colin Kaepernick (Nevada) this season. The rear of the WAC should be brought up by San Jose State and New Mexico State. The Spartans are replacing Dick Tomey who did pretty good things in his 5 years at the school. Tomey took the Spartans to one bowl, and had them bowl eligible in another season. Unfortunately, he could never quite get the offense going, and its doesn't appear new coach Mike MacIntyre (former Duke defensive coordinator) will be able to do any better in his first season. DeWayne Walker had a pretty miserable first season as head coach of New Mexico State. Year 2 will likely be a little better, but the Aggies should still be one of the WAC's worst teams on both sides of the ball.

SEC Recap: 2005-2009

In our half-decade retrospective, we've looked at all 6 BCS conferences save one. It's time to see how things have gone down in the deep south over the past 5 seasons. Or as it may one day come to be known, the Urban Era.

First off, here are combined SEC standings from 2005-2009.The Gators have dominated the SEC since Urban Meyer started coaching them, racking up 3 SEC East titles in his 5 seasons as coach. Alabama has made quite a run in the past 2 seasons, winning 16 straight league games to move into 2nd place after a ho-hum 12-12 mark from 2005-2007. Florida and Alabama are the only 2 teams to have gone undefeated in league play since 2005. Alabama did it in 2008 and both teams accomplished the feat in 2009. Meanwhile, Ole Miss and Vanderbilt are the only 2 teams to go winless in league play in that same span. Ole Miss did not win a single SEC game in 2007 before rebounding to win 5 in 2008. Vandy went winless this past season.

Now here is the standard deviation of each team's conference record (in wins). Teams are ranked from the most inconsistent to the least.The most inconsistent teams in the SEC have all played out west. All 6 teams from the West have had both a losing conference record since 2005 and at least a .500 mark in league play as well. If we remove Mississippi State from the equation (the most consistent team in the West), the other 5 SEC West teams have all had at least one losing and one winning conference record. Contrast this to the SEC East, where only South Carolina and Tennessee have had both a losing and winning conference record since 2005.

Now here is each team's point differential in conference play since 2005.Florida's dominance reveals itself even more when we examine point differential. The Gators' differential of +544 (13.6 per game) is nearly equal to that of the 2nd and 3rd place teams combined (+568). The point differentials line up exactly with the conference standings until we get to the bottom. Vanderbilt has an almost identical point differential with Kentucky, yet trails them by 4 games in the standings. The Commodores also have a much greater point differential than Mississippi State, yet trail them by a game in the standings.

With this being the end of the decade, here's the tally of conference and division titles.Florida and LSU won 6 conference titles between them this decade and also 4 BCS national titles. Not a bad decade. What's even more amazing is that 2 different coaches for each team won a conference title, and in LSU's case a national title as well. As for division titles, every team that won a division title in the 2000s won at least 2. However, Tennessee and Arkansas were unable to make their SEC Championship Game appearances count, going a combined 0-5 in the big game in the Georgia Dome.

And finally, what was the biggest takeaway from the 00 decade in the SEC?
I'm inclined to say its how competitive Vanderbilt has become. In 8 seasons under Bobby Johnson, the Commodores are still an SEC bottom-feeder, having gone just 12-52 against the league since Johnson took over prior to the 2002 season. However, in the 8 seasons before Johnson's arrival, the Commodores won only 7 conference games. Johnson has nearly doubled that output in his tenure. He has also made the Commodores much more competitive as the table below illustrates.In 5 of Johnson's 8 season, the Commodores have posted a better conference point differential than they did in any season in the previous 8. Johnson made the Commodores relevant for 5 consecutive seasons beginning in 2004, and culminating with their first bowl bid in a quarter century in 2008. The team slipped a little in 2009, but their point differential would have been an average season for the team in the late 90's and early 00's. Vandy is no longer an assured win on any team's schedule.

SEC SDPI

We now come to the last (but certainly not least) BCS conference--the SEC. What can we expect in the deep south this fall?

This first paragraph will explain how SDPI is calculated. So if you want the meat of this article skip on down. In the 2009 SEC regular season, conference play only, championship games excluded, the average SEC team gained and allowed 2757.583 yards. The standard deviation for yards gained (offense) was 362.41 yards. The standard deviation for yards allowed (defense) was 421.56 yards. Georgia gained 2867 yards and allowed 3035 yards. Their offensive SDPI was 0.30 = [(2867-2757.583)/362.41]. Their defensive SDPI was -0.66 = [(2757.583-3035)/421.56]. Their total SDPI was -0.36. This number ranked 7th in the SEC.

To refresh your memory, here are the 2009 SEC standings.
Now here are the 2009 SEC SDPI standings. The standings are sorted by division by total SDPI with ranking for each category (out of 12 teams) in parentheses.The 2 teams that combined to go 16-0 in conference play in the regular season rate out statistically as the 2 best teams in the league. The biggest disconnect between the actual and SDPI standings comes down on the bayou in the form of LSU. The Tigers finished all alone in second place in the SEC West despite being outgained by about 33 yards per game in league play. The Tigers' biggest deficiency was their anemic offense, which if not for Vanderbilt, would have been the worst in the SEC. However, the defense was solid and allowed the Tigers to hang around and pull out close victories (3-1 in one-score conference games). In 2 of those wins (Mississippi State and Arkansas), which the Tigers won by a combined 7 points, their special teams and defense contributed a combined 3 touchdowns. Those 3 individual plays were likely the biggest difference between a 5-3 and 3-5 conference record.

Conference Superlatives

Best Offense: Ole Miss 0.96
In a league dominated by defense, the Rebels moved the ball well against everyone save South Carolina and Alabama. The Gamecocks and Tide held the Rebels to 460 combined yards. In their other 6 conference games, the Rebels averaged 441 yards per game.

Worst Offense: Vanderbilt -2.42
The Commodore defense was not very good, but if you're looking for a culprit for their winless league season, its clearly the offense. The Commodores averaged 235 yards per game in SEC play. They never once eclipsed 300 yards (topped out at 297) and scored only 5 offensive touchdowns in their 8 conference games!

Best Defense: Florida 2.09
This was the area of the Gators team that really allowed them to contend for the SEC and national title. Prior to the SEC Championship Game, during which Alabama gashed the Gators for 490 yards, only a single conference foe topped 300 yards against the Gator defense (Arkansas had 357 in their near upset). Besides their yardage totals, one of the most amazing aspects of the Tide's performance against the Gators were their 3 rushing touchdowns. In the regular season, the Gators allowed exactly 3 rushing touchdowns to their other 8 SEC foes.

Worst Defense: Arkansas -1.42
Every SEC team gained at least 300 yards against the Hogs (best performance came when they allowed 326 versus LSU). If the defense had been just a little better, Arkansas could have had a special season. They lost 2 games when they scored 41 and 30 points respectively.

What's in Store for Next Year?
East Division:
If there is going to be a time for the Gators' strangle-hold on the East to be broken, this will be the year. The Gators have won 3 of the last 5 SEC East pennants since Urban Meyer took over prior to the 2005 season (and 3 out of the last 4). Meyer will be breaking in a new quarterback as John Brantley takes over for the departed Tim Tebow. The Gators also lose a pair of standout pass catchers in Riley Cooper and Aaron Hernandez. The defense, the real strength of last season's team, also loses some playmakers, particularly linebackers Ryan Stamper and Brandon Spikes. The window is open for other teams to sneak in, but who is most likely to do it? Georgia is coming off their worst season (statistically) of the Mark Richt era and will be playing with an inexperienced quarterback as well. Tennessee was the second best team in the division last season, but their polished quarterback and coaching staff have flown the coop and headed west. What about South Carolina? Can they end the triumvirate that has dominated the East since the divisional format began (Florida, Georgia, and Tennessee are the only schools to win the East)? One would think this is their best chance with an improving junior quarterback in Stephen Garcia and an emerging sophomore receiver in Alshon Jeffery. The Gamecocks also have a more favorable schedule this season, with Georgia, Tennessee, and Arkansas all making the trek to Columbia, while half of their SEC road games come against Kentucky and Vanderbilt. Speaking of the 'Cats and 'Dores, Kentucky will begin a new era under Joker Phillips in 2010. It will probably look very similar to the end of the Rick Brooks era. 3 non-conference body bag games (Western Kentucky, Akron, and Charleston Southern) will have them half way to bowl eligibility, so they will just need to find 3 other wins somewhere in the SEC schedule and in their in-state battle with Louisville. For Vanderbilt, the offense can't possibly be as bad as it was last season, so the 'Dores should once again be a competitive SEC lightweight that notches a few wins. However, they did themselves no favors with a non-conference slate that actually includes living, breathing, foes in Northwestern, Connecticut, and Wake Forest, so a bowl bid is unlikely.

West Division:
In the West, it looks like a repeat, at least for the division title (and in this case a 3-peat), is probable for the Tide. The quarterback, Heisman Trophy running back, and top-2 receivers all return to a solid, if unspectacular offense. The defense loses some talent at each level with monstrous tackle Terrence Cody, athletic linebackers Rolando McClain, and playmaking defensive back Javier Arenas all departing. Still, by season's end, Nick Saban should have the defense playing if not at an elite, then at a very high level. So who is their biggest threat? Arkansas has the offensive punch to hang with the Tide, but their defense was last in the conference last season. Ole Miss was statistically the division's second best team last year, but their quarterback and do-it-all running back are gone along with a pair of talented defensive linemen in Emmanuel Stephens and Greg Hardy. The Auburn offense improved by leaps and bounds under the tutelage of Gus Malzahn in 2009, but now the Tigers must also replace their starting quarterback and running back (sense a pattern here?). The other Tigers from Baton Rouge do bring back their starting quarterback, but lose his top-receiver and the team's top-2 rushers from an offense that was not exceptional to begin with. And finally we have Mississippi State, which for the first time in a long time had an average offense under first year coach Dan Mullen. Can it get even better in year 2? Unfortunately, the Bulldogs also lose their starting quarterback and running back, and just as anyone who has ever started an exercise regimen will inform you, its a lot easier to go from out of shape to average fitness than it is to take the next step and go from average to proficient.

Pac-10 Recap: 2005-2009

In our offseason retrospective, we now come to the Pac-10, the lone BCS conference on the west coast. Here's how its played out over the last 5 seasons.

First off, here are the combined Pac-10 standings from 2005-2009.No real surprise at the top. Despite a down year in 2009, the Trojans are still 4 games clear of their closest competition in the last half-decade. Washington and Washington St are the only Pac-10 teams to not have a winning conference record since 2005 (both topped out at 4-5) and they are also the only 2 teams to go winless in league play in that span. Washington did it first in 2008, and their brethren from Pullman followed them up with a winless conference season in 2009. Since the Pac-10 went to a 9-game conference season in 2006, no team has gone unbeaten in the league (Southern Cal finished 8-1 in 2008 and Oregon finished 8-1 in 2009).

Now here is the standard deviation of each team's conference record (in wins). Teams are ranked from the most inconsistent to the least.Stanford has been the most inconsistent Pac-10 team over the past 5 seasons. That's no real surprise when you examine their record. In 2005, under the tutelage of Walt Harris, they finished a respectable 4-4 in the Pac-10. The very next season, they endured one of the worst conference seasons in recent memory. If not for the lamentable seasons put up by both Washington schools in 2008 and Washington St in 2009, the 1-8 Cardinal campaign 0f 2006 would stand as the worst team season of the past 5 years in the Pac-10. Of course, just 3 short seasons later, Jim Harbaugh had the Cardinal in contention for the Rose Bowl as they finished with a 6-3 conference record. Southern Cal has been the most consistent Pac-10 outfit of the past 5 years. Aside from their plunge into mediocrity in 2009, the Trojans had won 7 or 8 conference games from 2005-2008.

Now here is each team's point differential in conference play since 2005.Again, no real surprises here. The Trojans have outscored their conference opponents on average by about 16 points per game since 2005. If we just focus on their run from 2005-2008 (the Trojans were just above the break even point in 2009), that number jumps to over 19.7 points per game. Oregon is the only team besides Southern Cal to not be outscored in any one season. Washington State has been outscored by 653 points over the past 2 seasons. This means, on average, their Pac-10 opponents have beaten them by 36.3 points per game!

With this being the end of the decade, here's the tally of conference titles.We're giving Washington State credit for the 2002 crown they shared with Southern Cal because they beat the Trojans head-to-head. Similarly, for Southern Cal's other split titles (2006 and 2007), California and Arizona State do not get any credit because the Trojans owned the head-to-head tiebreaker. Somewhat ironically, the 2 schools with the worst records over the past 5 seasons (combined 19-69) won 2 conference titles in the first 3 seasons of the decade (2000 and 2002).

And finally, what was the biggest takeway from the 00 decade in the Pac-10?
I'm not going to go with the obvious and say the re-emergence of the Trojan empire. No, I'll say its the shift in power in the Pacific northwest from the Washington schools to the Oregon schools. The table below lists the combined winning percentage of the Oregon and Washington schools broken down into 5 year windows beginning in 1990.As you can see, the Oregon schools began the 1990's as pretty forgettable outfits. Oregon was an occasional bowl contender, but the Beavers from Oregon State were awful (3 straight single win seasons from 1990-1992). Meanwhile Washington was busy winning conference and national titles (1991) and the Cougars from Washington State would balance out 3 and 4 win seasons with an occasional bowl bid. As the decade wore on, Oregon continued to contend for bowl games and also won the conference in 1995. Oregon State steadily rose, adding to their win totals each season beginning in 1996 and culminating with their first bowl bid in 35 years following the 1999 season. Washington slipped in the Pac-10 pecking order, and while the Cougars went to the Rose Bowl in 1997, they did not have a winning season in the 2 seasons prior or the 3 seasons after. When the new decade dawned, Oregon and Oregon State enjoyed some of their finest seasons in school history. Washington also stayed relevant at the beginning of the decade, and Washington State enjoyed 3 consecutive 10-win seasons from 2001-2003. However, in the second half of the decade, the Oregon schools continued to churn out winners, posting just a single losing season between them since 2005, while the Washington schools have not had a winning season between them since 2003! Washington appears to be back on the rise under Steve Sarkisian, but Washington State is mired in deficiency. Perhaps massive changes await in the new decade, but for now it appears the state of Oregon is king in the Pacific Northwest.

Pac-10 SDPI

This week in our SDPI posts, we'll try to shed our East Coast bias as we trek out west to examine the Pac-10.

As usual, this first paragraph will explain how SDPI is calculated. So if you want the meat of this article skip on down. In the 2009 Pac-10 regular season, conference play only, the average Pac-10 team gained and allowed 3383.4 yards. The standard deviation for yards gained (offense) was 617.95 yards. The standard deviation for yards allowed (defense) was 460.26 yards. Arizona gained 3630 yards and allowed 3044 yards. Their offensive SDPI was 0.40 = [(3630-3383.4)/617.95]. Their defensive SDPI was 0.74 = [(3383.4-3044)/460.26]. Their total SDPI was 1.14. This number ranked 3rd in the Pac-10.

To refresh your memory, here are the 2009 Pac-10 standings.
Now here are the 2009 Pac-10 SDPI standings. The standings are sorted by total SDPI with ranking for each category (out of 10 teams) in parentheses.The big story in the Pac-10 in 2009 was the fall of the mighty Trojans. After winning outright or sharing 7 straight conference titles, and being a national title contender year-in and year-out, the Trojans slipped to the middle of the Pac-10 standings. Based on SDPI, their fall was no fluke brought about by poor luck or happenstance. The Trojans' offense was slightly below average and their defense was just a shade above average. Altogether, the Trojans were a middling team and their record reflected as such. However, there were 2 Pac-10 teams with conference records that didn't quite match up with their actual performances. Despite the fact that they fielded the worst offense in the Pac-10 this side of Washington State, the Sun Devils from Arizona State made up for it by fielding one of the league's best defenses. However, their poor mark in close games (0-3 in Pac-10 play in one-score games) and poor turnover margin (league worst -12) led to a poor 2-7 league record. Meanwhile, Cal won more games than they lost in the league despite being statistically the worst team besides Washington State thanks to an unblemished mark in close games (3-0 in one-score league games) and a solid turnover margin (+3).

Conference Superlatives

Best Offense: Oregon 1.44
Maybe the Pac-10 had a lot of bad defenses, maybe it was just a statistical quirk based on a relatively small sample, or maybe the Oregon offense had a tough time getting going, but the Ducks had quite a conference/non-conference split in 2009. In their 4 non-conference games (began the year with 3 straight non-league games), the Ducks averaged 270 yards per game, never gaining more than 356 yards in any contest. In Pac-10 play, Oregon averaged 475 yards per game.

Worst Offense: Washington State -2.11
The Cougars were held below 200 yards in two-thirds (6) of their conference games. The Cougars somehow managed to gash Cal for 440 yards of offense, yet still lost by more than 4 touchdowns. The Cougars scored 10 touchdowns in their 9 conference games.

Best Defense: Oregon 1.17
Outside of a no-show at Stanford (505 yards allowed at 7 yards a pop), the Oregon defense acquitted itself very well, holding 5 league teams under 350 yards.

Worst Defense: Washington State -2.26
In their best defensive showing, the Cougars 'held' Southern Cal to 403 yards. If they allowed that many yards in every game, they would have finished 9th in the Pac-10 in defense!

What's in Store for Next Year?
The Trojans will be back in their customary place in 2010 right? 2009 was just a bump in the road and a slew of Rose Bowls are in the future right? Maybe not. Why? Well, as mentioned earlier, the Trojans were not a particularly good team in 2009. Their offense and defense were right around average by Pac-10 standards, and the Trojans were actually outscored by 9 points in their 8 conference games not involving Washington State. Don't forget the Trojans will also be breaking in a new coach, a coach who has yet to accomplish anything of note I might add, and will also be losing a great deal of talent including all 4 starters in the secondary. Don't pencil the Trojans in for a return to glory just yet. That's good news for the other 9 teams in the conference, but may be bad news for the Pac-10's national reputation. The 2010 Pac-10 could be a lot like the 2009 Big East in that it is a major conference with no real favorite heading into the season. So who could contend for the title in 2010? The defending champs from Oregon seemed poised to make another run at the Rose Bowl, until some minor legal issues emerged in the offseason. Stanford loses star running back Tobey Gerhart to the NFL Draft, but does return 7 other starters from the 2nd best offense in the conference. If the defense can get a little better, Jim Harbaugh will once again be one of the hottest coaching commodities come December. Mike Riley has built a consistent winner at a former college football outpost, and the Beavers have finished just one game shy of the Rose Bowl each of the past 2 seasons. The defense loses only 3 starters, and should remain one of the league's best, but the offense must break in a new quarterback and will likely go through some growing pains. Arizona State will certainly be better than their 2-7 conference record in 2009, but massive improvements on offense are unlikely as the starting quarterback, running back, and top-2 receivers must be replaced. Rick Neuheisel has yet to post a competent offense in his 2 seasons in Los Angeles, so the Bruins will likely play a few games in the Rose Bowl, but none in the postseason. Washington will likely be a trendy pick in the preseason, and the Huskies certainly showed marked improvement in Steve Sarkisian's first season, but they were still statistically one of the worst teams in the Pac-10 (below average on both sides of the ball). Cal won more Pac-10 games than they lost last season, but in their 4 losses, they were far from competitive. In loses to Oregon, Southern Cal, Oregon State, and Washington, the Bears were outscored by nearly 29 points per game (and 2 of those losses came at home). The Bears defense was also the 2nd worst in the Pac-10 last season, so the chance that they end their 52-year Rose Bowl drought is unlikely. As for Washington State, well if they somehow manage to win the league in 2010 (hell, if they qualify for a bowl game), it will be one of the biggest surprises of all time. So who does that leave? Arizona. Lesser Stoops has been quietly building a contender in Tucson. Sure the Wildcats didn't exactly end the season on a positive note, losing 33-0 to Nebraska in the Holiday Bowl, but they were solid on both sides of the ball in the Pac-10. If they can overcome the loss of offensive coordinator Sonny Dykes (head coach at Louisiana Tech) and some attrition on defense, the Wildcats could find themselves in their first ever Rose Bowl come early January.

Big 12 Recap: 2005-2009

Thus far in our offseason half-decade retrospective, we've looked at the ACC, Big East, and Big 10. Now we examine the Big 12. Care to hazard any guesses as to who the 2 best teams in this league are?

First off, here are combined Big 12 standings from 2005-2009.Texas and Oklahoma are the Yankees and Red Sox of the Big 12. However, Texas is the only team to have gone undefeated in league play (2005 and 2009). Over the past 5 seasons, the Red Raiders from Texas Tech have not only been the 3rd best team in what has amounted to a 2 team league, but they have gone a respectable 4-6 against Texas and Oklahoma (beating Oklahoma 3 straight times in Lubbock). And while the Red Raiders have made a habit of taking it to the bullies of the Big 12 on numerous occasions, they have also been subject to a few shockers as well. The Red Raiders have lost 3 straight at Oklahoma State, once to a very good Cowboy team (2009), once to a thoroughly mediocre Cowboy team (2007), and once to a Cowboy team that would have gone winless in the Big 12 if not for the generosity of Tech (2005). The Red Raiders also dropped home games to lackluster squads from Texas A&M (2009), Missouri (2006), and Colorado (2007) teams. If the Aggies and Buffs had not won those games, they would not have even been bowl eligible. Elsewhere in the standings, Missouri and Nebraska have clearly been the cream of the crop in the Big 12 North. Oklahoma State and coach Mike Gundy deserve major kudos. After bottoming out in his first season at 1-7, the Cowboys have nearly clawed their way back to .500, going 18-14 in league play over the past 4 seasons. Baylor is the lone Big 12 team to not post at least a break even mark in league play at least once since 2005. The Bears (2007) are also one of only 2 teams (Iowa St in 2008) to post winless seasons in league play.

Now here is the standard deviation of each team's conference record (in wins). Teams are ranked from the most inconsistent to the least.Kansas has been the most inconsistent Big 12 team of the last half-decade. This is primarily the result of their dream 2007 season (7-1), followed shortly thereafter by a 1-7 nightmare (2009) that saw them lose their final 7 games and ultimately cost Mark Mangino his job. Oklahoma has been the most consistent team, alternating 6 and 7 win seasons from 2005 through 2008, before bottoming out (relatively) with 5 league wins in 2009.

Now here is each team's point differential in conference play since 2005.The point differential standings align almost perfectly with the actual league standings. The only real head-scratcher is Missouri's large lead over Nebraska in point differential (+221 points) resulting in only a one-game lead in the standings. All of this difference can be attributed to the historic 2007 season that saw Nebraska sink to new lows and Missouri reach new heights. Missouri's point differential (+154) was 236 more than Nebraska's (-82) that season. if we remove 2007 from the equation, Nebraska actually has a slight advantage in point differential (+113 to +96) and in the standings (21-11 to 17-15).

With this being the end of the decade, here's the tally of conference and division titles.Again, no shocker. Well, maybe a little. While Texas has the better league mark since 2005, Oklahoma really dominated this conference in the first half of the aughts. They won 4 of 5 South Division titles and thrice went unbeaten in Big 12 play (regular season). They were 36-4 against the Big 12 from 2000-2004. Of course, Texas was no slouch, compiling a 34-6 record over the same span. However, the Longhorns never defeated the Sooners in that stretch and won only a single division title, which they blew as heavy favorites to Colorado in 2001. The South has been favored in each Big 12 Championship Game in the past decade, and the pair of titles won by the North occurred in somewhat shocking (Colorado over Texas in 2001) and ultra-shocking fashion (Kansas St over Oklahoma in 2003).

And finally, what was the biggest takeaway from the 00 decade in the Big 12?
The fundamental shift in power from the Big 12 North to the Big 12 South. When the Big 12 was formed in the mid-1990's the class of the conference was clearly in the North. Nebraska had just won back-to-back national titles (94 and 95). They would contend for another in 1996 before sharing the title with Michigan in 1997. Kansas State was experiencing its finest decade ever under Bill Snyder. Colorado was still a national player, appearing in bowl games in 10 out of 11 seasons from 1985-1995, along with a somewhat dubious national title in 1990. It should be noted that when the league formed, even perennial doormat Kansas was coming off a 10-win season in 1995. Meanwhile, the 2 big boy programs in what would be the South were experiencing some of their worst times. Howard Schnellenberger and John Blake conspired to run Oklahoma into the ground, posting a 17-27-1 record in their 4 combined seasons (1995-1998). While Texas did upset Nebraska in the first ever Big 12 Championship Game in 1996 (for which Steve Spurrier is eternally grateful), the Longhorns managed only a 41-28-2 record in 6 seasons under John Mackovic (1992-1997) and lost at least 4 games each season save one. After the schools canned Blake and Mackovic, they certainly hired the right men for the job. Meanwhile, back in the North, Nebraska slipped a little under Tom Osborne's successor Frank Solich. After releasing him of his duties, they slipped a lot more under Bill Callahan. Kansas State also slipped under Bill Snyder. Upon his retirement, the program slipped a lot more under his replacement Ron Prince. Colorado also slipped under Gary Barnett and then really faceplanted when they hired zen guru Dan Hawkins to take his place. The fall of these 3 powers allowed programs such as Missouri, Kansas, and Iowa State to enjoy some of their finest seasons in the late-1990's and 2000's. However, the fall of those formerly elite 1990's programs caused a severe divisional imbalance. In the 1990's, Big 12 North Division teams were a combined 42-30 against teams from the South. That's good for a winning percentage of .583. In those 4 seasons, the North never finished worse than 9-9 against the South. Since 2000, the North has enjoyed exactly 2 winning seasons against the South (2001 and 2007). In both those seasons, the North went 10-8 against the South. They also broke even in 2000. From 2000-2009, the North has gone 65-155 against the South. That's a winning percentage of .361. The chart below shows the Big 12 North's winning percentage versus the South since the conference formed prior to the 1996 season.

Big 12 SDPI

It's only March and we're already half way through the BCS leagues. This week, we'll examine the Big 12 and what to expect from that conference in the fall.

This first paragraph will explain how SDPI is calculated. So if you want the meat of this article skip on down. In the 2009 Big 12 regular season, conference play only, championship games excluded, the average Big 12 team gained and allowed 2926.917 yards. The standard deviation for yards gained (offense) was 419.36 yards. The standard deviation for yards allowed (defense) was 507.96 yards. Colorado gained 2352 yards and allowed 2721 yards. Their offensive SDPI was -1.37 = [(2721-2926.917)/419.36]. Their defensive SDPI was 0.41 = [(2926.917-2721)/507.96]. Their total SDPI was -0.97. This number ranked 10th in the Big 12.

To refresh your memory, here are the 2009 Big 12 standings.
Now here are the 2009 Big 12 SDPI standings. The standings are sorted by division by total SDPI with ranking for each category (out of 12 teams) in parentheses.The actual standings and the SDPI standings are a little misalligned. In the North, Missouri rates as the best team, despite the fact that Nebraska beat them on the field and in the standings. Elsewhere in the North, Iowa State ranks as the worst team (by far), yet they qualified for a bowl game, while Colorado and Kansas finished below them in the standings. In fact, the middle-four teams in the division (Nebraska, Kansas, Kansas State, and Colorado) were separated by only half a standard deviation. In the South, Oklahoma rated out as the best team, despite losing outright to both Texas Tech and Texas. Speaking of the Red Raiders, they rate as the second best team in the league, but they are always overvalued by SDPI because of the type of offense they run. We'll see if that continues with the changes at head coach.

Conference Superlatives

Best Offense: Texas Tech 1.52
In an interesting twist, the Red Raiders were held in check only once in Big 12 play, when they were held to 259 total yards against Nebraska (worst since a loss to TCU in 2006). Nebraska featured the 2nd best defense in the Big 12. Against the league's best defense (Oklahoma), the Red Raiders rolled up 549 yards. Perhaps venue had a little something to do with that. The Nebraska game was in Lincoln, while the game against the Sooners came in Lubbock.

Worst Offense: Nebraska -1.60
The Cornhuskers gained over 400 yards only once in conference play, versus Kansas. They were held below 300 yards 6 times in league play. In the Big 12 Championship Game, the offense was what prevented the Huskers from shaking up the BCS standings, as they wasted a great defensive performance by gaining 106 total yards!

Best Defense: Oklahoma 1.29
Outside of the aforementioned game against Texas Tech, the Sooners held their Big 12 foes in check. Kansas (305) and Kansas State (364) were the only other Big 12 teams to gain over 300 yards against the Sooners defense.

Worst Defense: Texas A&M -1.50
The Aggies defense kept them from enjoying a sensational season as they featured the 2nd best offense in the league. Only Baylor (297) and Iowa State (324) failed to gain over 400 yards against the Aggies in Big 12 play.

What's in Store for Next Year?
North Division:
Just as a duumvirate has emerged in the South Division with Texas and Oklahoma, I have a feeling the same is well on its way to occurring in the North. Nebraska and Missouri have won the past 4 North Division titles, and since Nebraska's resurrection began under Bo Pelini in 2008, the Tigers and Huskers are a combined 14-2 against the rest of the Big 12 North, with the average win coming by more than 2 touchdowns (16.9 points per game). Missouri is set in the backfield with cannon-armed quarterback Blaine Gabbert and running back Derrick Washington, but the Tigers lose Gabbert's favorite target, receiver Danario Alexander, who hauled in 113 balls last season. The Tigers will also be without the services of do-it-all linebacker Sean Weatherspoon. The Huskers will be more limited on offense, but should improved upon their dismal showing from last season. The defense, even with the loss of superstar defensive tackle Ndamukong Suh, should once again be one of the Big 12's best. Couple the still strong defense with minor improvements on offense and the venue of this year's clash (Lincoln, Nebraska), and Nebraska should be the odds on favorite heading into 2010. The other 4 teams in the division, Colorado, Iowa State, Kansas, and Kansas State should not pose a serious threat to either Nebraska or Missouri. However, at least one, and perhaps two of the four will be participating in the bowl season. Colorado was a trendy sleeper last season, and the university's financial trouble could be a godsend for embattled coach Dan Hawkins. In most other economic climates, Hawkins would have been axed after a 4th straight losing season in 2009. However, Colorado couldn't afford his buyout, and Hawkins is around for year 5. I don't know that Colorado is a sleeper, but the Buffs were much better than a team that won only 2 league games. The defense was actually solid last season, and with only 4 starters gone, should remain the strength of the team. Colorado won't set the Big 12 afire in 2010, but with a little luck, Hawkins should have his first winning season in Boulder. Whether or not that's grounds for remaining employed is not up to me. Of the other 3 schools, Kansas State has the next best shot at getting to a bowl. In Bill Snyder's first year back in Manhattan, the Wildcats went from the worst defense in the Big 12 to merely below average. The offense, despite the loss of 1st round pick Josh Freeman, stayed about the same. Like Colorado, the Wildcats shouldn't be a legitimate threat to the top teams in the conference, but should only need to corral 3 league wins to get to the postseason. Iowa State was a great story last season, as only a madman or genius would have picked them to go to a bowl after an 0-8 Big 12 season in 2008. However, statistically, the 2009 bowl-winning Cyclones were a shade worse than their 0-fer Big 12 play 2008 incarnation. The difference was close games (3-2 in one-score games in 2009 after going 0-4 in such games in 2008) and turnovers (+8 in Big 12 play in 2009 and -2 in 2008). The Cyclones won't go winless in the Big 12 in 2010, but I wouldn't pencil them in for postseason play either. Kansas should compete with the Cyclones for the cellar in the North. Kansas is under new management with Turner Gill taking the reigns from Mark Mangino. Unfortunately, Gill will not have the services of 3 key skill position players that helped the Jayhawks win the Orange Bowl in 2007 (quarterback Todd Reesing, running back Jake Sharp, and receiver Kerry Meier). This will likely be a rebuilding year in Lawrence.

South:
I'm not gonna come up with any ground-breaking predictions for the Big 12 South. For the 100th straight year (actually just the 12th) either Oklahoma or Texas will win the division. Oklahoma should be the odds on favorite for several reasons. Statistically, the Sooners had both a better offense and defense than Texas in 2009. Oklahoma was done in by poor luck in close games (1-4 in one-score contests) and an average turnover margin (even in Big 12 play). Meanwhile, Texas won both their one-score games, and featured a fabulous turnover margin (+11 in Big 12 play). Texas also scored 11 non-offensive touchdowns to Oklahoma's 4. Those other facets of play all help to win football games, but unfortunately for Texas, they are also not as consistent year-to-year as outperforming your opponent on a down-by-down basis. Another big reason to like the Sooners in 2010 is that their quarterback was thrown into the fire last season. Following Sam Bradford's injury in the season opener against BYU, Landry Jones threw passes in each game save one (Baylor). He learned on the job, and also performed well overall (130.82 passer rating ranked 52nd nationally), though he did have a few stinkers in the Sooners losses (3 touchdown passes and 8 picks in the 5 games the Sooners lost). Texas also had their quarterback get some crucial on the job training, but unfortunately it came in the BCS National Championship Game after Colt McCoy was knocked out early. Garret Gilbert had an uneven performance against one of the best defenses in the nation, and he probably won't face any circumstances as dire as that game in his college career. Still, the Sooners have a decided edge at perhaps the most important position. Elsewhere in the South, Oklahoma State enjoyed yet another solid campaign under Mike Gundy, posting one of their best defensive performances in recent memory. It's a true shame Dez Bryant only got to play in 3 games before the NCAA kicked him to the curb, as the accomplishments in Stillwater could have been historic. Without him, the offense was only 7th in the Big 12, and the Cowboys proved to be paper tigers against the more elite teams they faced. A downturn is sure to ensue after the Cowboys bid adieu to 8 starters on defense and the school's all-time leading passer in Zac Robinson. Texas Tech will be a team everyone has their eye on in 2010. Can Tommy Tuberville maintain the pace set by Mike Leach at a football outpost in Lubbock? Tuberville is a fine coach, but Mike Leach did some amazing things in his decade-long run at Tech. Texas A&M will also be an interesting team to watch. They were certainly the epitome of an unbalanced team in 2009. Their offense, behind quarterback Jerrod Johnson, was 2nd in the Big 12, but their defense was dead last. The defense loses only one significant contributor, but again, it was dead last. If the offense can at least somewhat resemble their 2009 form and the defense can become bad instead of awful, the Aggies could be a proverbial darkhorse in 2010. And finally, Baylor will attempt to qualify for their first bowl game since joining the Big 12. The Bears do have a stud in quarterback Robert Griffin, who was sidelined in the 3rd game last season with a torn ACL. If he returns to form, the Bears will have a puncher's chance of picking up some wins against the Big 12 underbelly (Kansas, Kansas St, and Texas A&M all come to Waco), and could play in their first bowl game since 1994.

Big 10 Recap: 2005-2009

Thus far, in our offseason half-decade look back, we've examined the ACC and Big East. Now we move toward the mid-west and the Big 10 (11).

First off, here are the combined Big 10 standings from 2005-2009.While the Trojans from Southern California get a great deal of the national pub for 'dominating' their conference, its clear the Buckeyes have also been on quite a roll over the last 5 years. Ohio State is 7 games clear of their closest competitor (Penn State), and their worst finish in that span has been a tie for first. Minnesota and Indiana are the lone Big 10 schools to not post a winning conference record in the past 5 seasons. The Golden Gophers finished 4-4 in 2005, while the Hoosiers best finishes were consecutive 3-5 marks in 2006 and 2007. Two teams have gone winless in league play, Illinois in 2005 and Minnesota in 2007, and only one team has gone unbeaten (Ohio State in 2006). Besides Ohio State, Penn State is the only Big 10 team to not have a losing record since 2005. Their worst finish was 4-4 in 2007.

Now here is the standard deviation of each team's conference record (in wins). Teams are ranked from the most inconsistent to the least.The most inconsistent Big 10 team in the past 5 years has been Michigan. The Wolverines were 18-6 in league play from 2005-2007, but are just 3-13 since. The second most inconsistent team is Illinois. In the past 5 years, the Illini have a winless conference campaign on their ledger as well as a second place conference finish that earned them a Rose Bowl berth. The most consistent Big 10 team has also been the best team. Ohio State finished 7-1 four times in the past 5 seasons, and in the other year went 8-0.

Now here is each team's point differential in conference play since 2005.These numbers line up pretty well with the actual standings. Ohio State once again stands as the most dominant Big 10 team, outscoring their conference foes by over 19 points per game since 2005.

With this being the end of the decade, here's the tally of conference titles.Please note that this does not include shared titles. Iowa is conspicuously absent from this list despite tying for a pair of titles in 2002 and 2005. The real travesty is that the 2002 undefeated Big 10 team never got to face off against the undefeated Buckeyes from the same season. I bet you had forgotten about the pair of titles won by Purdue and Illinois at the beginning of this past decade.

And finally, what was the biggest takeway from the 00 decade in the Big 10?
I would say it was the death and subsequent resurrection of Penn State football. If you asked most football fans in the middle of the 2004 season if Joe Pa would still be coaching at the dawn of the next decade, the answer would likely be 'absolutely not'. Penn State was 16-24 in the Big 10 from 2000-2004 (26-33 overall) with just a single bowl appearance and had lost 13 of 16 Big 10 games. Since then, Penn State is 29-11 in the Big 10 and 51-13 overall with 5 consecutive bowl appearances and a pair of conference titles.

Big 10 SDPI

On our sojourn through the 2009 college football season we now head west, to the Big 10. Don't look now, but the Big 10 may have been the best conference in 2009. Here's the link to last year's SDPI post on the Big 10.

As usual, this first paragraph will explain how SDPI is calculated. So if you want the meat of this article skip on down. In the 2009 Big 10 regular season, conference play only, the average Big 10 team gained and allowed 2843.273 yards. The standard deviation for yards gained (offense) was 287.49 yards. The standard deviation for yards allowed (defense) was 428.63 yards. Illinois gained 2825 yards and allowed 3163 yards. Their offensive SDPI was -0.06 = [(2825-2843.273)/287.49]. Their defensive SDPI was -0.75 = [(2843.273-3163)/428.63]. Their total SDPI was -0.81. This number ranked 9th in the Big 10.

To refresh your memory, here are the 2009 Big 10 standings.
Now here are the 2009 Big 10 SDPI standings. The standings are sorted by total SDPI with ranking for each category (out of 11 teams) in parentheses.There's not a great deal of disconnect between the actual and SDPI standings. I suppose the biggest difference is Penn State. The Nittany Lions ranked as the best team according to SDPI, yet they lost to the 2 teams that finished directly ahead of them in the standings, at home no less. No ranking system is perfect, but it should be noted that in their other 6 conference games, Penn State was very dominant, winning by an average of 20.5 points per game. Meanwhile, Ohio State lost to Purdue and made up for their modest yardage differential by leading the conference in turnover margin (+12 in league play) and scoring 4 non-offensive touchdowns, including 3 in their win over Wisconsin. Iowa was the master of winning ugly. Their 6 Big 10 wins came by an average of 9.2 points. Iowa and Ohio State are underrated by this system primarily because their defenses were so good (just ask Oregon and Georgia Tech) and because this system does not give any weight to special teams or turnovers, 2 key elements that can swing any football game. Conversely, Penn State is a little overrated because outside of those 2 contests (and the defense actually played very well against Iowa), the Nittany Lions were not really challenged in Big 10 play.

Conference Superlatives

Best Offense: Penn State 1.26
When they weren't being suffocated by the league's 2 best defenses (508 combined yards against Ohio State and Iowa), the Lions carved up Big 10 defenses to the tune of nearly 450 yards per game.

Worst Offense: Minnesota -1.67
Can't we all just admit you made a mistake in letting Glen Mason go? At least when the Gophers were a fledgling Big 10 team, they were fun to watch. Remember Laurence Maroney, Marion Barber, and Gary Russell? To be fair, the Gophers were without super star receiver Eric Decker for the last half of their Big 10 schedule. However, the Gophers actually averaged more yards per game over their last 3 conference games (326) than their first 5 (277) when Decker was healthy.

Best Defense: Ohio State 1.45
At this point, its only surprising when Ohio State doesn't field the best defense in the Big 10. The Buckeyes narrowly edged Iowa for this honor, allowing 11 fewer yards over the course of 8 Big 10 games.

Worst Defense: Michigan -1.36
Oh, how the mighty have fallen. It should be noted that Michigan was 10th last season (ahead of only Indiana). Rich Rod has now presided over the 2 worst Michigan defenses in the program's history.

What's in Store for Next Year?
Surprise, surprise. The favorite for next year according to all of the preseason magazines and this blogger extraordinaire will be Ohio State. Ohio State is seemingly underrated by SDPI each season thanks to Tressel's ultra-conservative nature. The Buckeyes take very few risks on offense and usually rank in the bottom half of the Big 10 in yards per game. However, they create a lot of turnovers and use their fine special teams to produce a field position advantage (or actual defensive or special teams scores) that help them win games. The chart below illustrates what I'm referring too. When this happens consistently over the course of time, it's a trend. If Indiana or Purdue or Minnesota does it for one season, it's a fluke and they are not likely to be as fortunate the next season. Judging from past returns, Ohio State will probably field a mid-level Big 10 offense in 2010, but with help from a superb defense and special teams play, should finish at or near the top of the league in scoring. The only issue standing against the Buckeyes and yet another Big 10 title is their road schedule. While the Buckeyes get key rivals Penn State and Michigan at home, they must travel to Madison to take on the Badgers and Iowa City to take on the Hawkeyes. Those 2 teams are your 2 best bets to dethrone the Buckeyes. Iowa loses some key players from their fantastic defense, including leading tackler linebacker Pat Angerer, but should be poised to do their best Ohio State-lite impersonation and win a lot of low-scoring blue collar battles. SDPI saw Wisconsin as the 2nd best team in the Big 10 last season. With the emergence of quarterback Scott Tolzien, receiver Nick Toon, and tight end Garrett Graham the Badgers finally had a passing offense to compliment their always potent running game. Graham has exhausted his eligibility, but Tolzien and Toon remain along with running back John Clay who rushed for over 1500 yards last season. Elsewhere in the Big 10, Penn State should be bowl bound again, but will likely struggle to compete with the league's elite thanks to the loss senior quarterback Daryll Clark. Purdue was much better than their record in Danny Hope's first season as coach and could return to the postseason for the first time since 2007 despite the loss of senior quarterback Joe Elliott. The rest of the league is very muddled. Michigan seemed to be back on track early in 2009 behind hot-shot quarterback Tate Forcier, yet the Wolverines still finished only 9th in the league in offense to go along with their poor showing on defense. Still, its Michigan, so a 3rd straight bowl-less winter would be unthinkable. Minnesota has been playing like the worst team in the Big 10 for a few years now, and their actual record may end up matching it in 2010. Northwestern will likely take a step back after losing what amounted to their entire offense in the person of quarterback Mike Kafka. Illinois has and always will be an enigma. After a solid performance in 2008 than belied their poor conference record, the Illini backed it up with a putrid showing in both categories in 2009. Who knows what the Zooker has in store for us in 2010? Indiana has typically been the league's whipping boy, but the Hooisers showed signs of life in 2009, losing 3 conference games by a combined 7 points. With a senior quarterback at the helm, they could get back to a bowl for the 2nd time in 4 seasons.

Big East Recap: 2005-2009

A few weeks ago we looked at the last half-decade in the ACC. Now we'll move to the league the ACC plundered and left for dead in the mid-00's, the Big East.

First off, here are the combined Big East standings from 2005-2009.I was a little surprised West Virginia still has the best league record since 2005. In the 2 seasons Bill Stewart has been at the helm, the Mountaineers have continued to play well in the league, going 10-4. Against teams not named Cincinnati, the Mountaineers are 10-2 in that span. In fact, of the Mountaineers 8 league losses in the past 5 seasons, 7 have come to either Cincinnati (2), Pitt (2), or South Florida (3). The other loss came to what used to be known as Louisville. After winning 14 of their last 15 conference games, the Bearcats from Cincinnati rose up to take the silver medal. West Virginia is the only Big East team to not have a losing record since 2005. Not surprisingly, Syracuse is the only Big East team to not have a winning record since 2005.

Now here is the standard deviation of each team's conference record (in wins). Teams are ranked from the most inconsistent to the least.The most inconsistent team has been Louisville. From 2005-2006, the Cardinals went 11-3 in Big East play and seemed poised to be a national player. Since then, they are 5-16 in league play, besting only Syracuse over that period (3-18). Speaking of the Orange, they are the most consistent Big East team over the past 5 seasons. After going 0-7 in league play in 2005, the Orange have been remarkably consistent since, notching a single Big East win in each season. West Virginia has also been very consistent, following up their 7-0 campaign in 2005 with 4 straight 5-2 league records.

Now here is each team's point differential in conference play since 2005.In this methodology, the Mountaineers come out head and shoulders above every other Big East team. Their point differential is nearly 300 points better than 2nd place Rutgers. Teams 3-5 are clustered very closely together, with only 11 points separating 3rd place Pitt from 5th place South Florida. The main reason why Cincinnati is so far ahead of South Florida in the actual standings (+6 games) despite having a nearly identical scoring differential is their performance in one-score games. The Bearcats are 11-6 in one-score conference games since 2005, while the Bulls are only 2-9.

With this being the end of the decade, here's the tally of conference titles.
And finally, what was the biggest takeway from the 00 decade in the Big East?
History is no barrier to success, particularly if no one in the conference has a great history. Of the 8 current Big East teams, Pitt and Syracuse are the only 2 that can claim a national title. Pitt has 6 with their most recent coming in 1976, while Syracuse can claim the 1959 title. At the beginning of this decade, Rutgers was a perennial doormat, Cincinnati and Louisville were on the outside looking in at big money leagues as members of Conference USA, South Florida was still playing IAA ball, and Connecticut had just made the jump to IA. West Virginia had some moderate success under Jim Carlen, Bobby Bowden, and Don Nehlen, but nothing like the spoils they enjoyed under Rich Rodriguez from 2003-2007. I didn't include them in the above table, but West Virginia was actually the co-champions in both 2003 and 2004, giving them a technical run of 4 titles in 5 seasons. Who knows what the future holds for the Big East, but the conference appears to be in much better shape than was imagined when re-allignment began in 2004.