Big East Preview

As promised a few days ago, I proudly present to you the 2010 Big East preview. If you want a primer on how these projections were produced, here's the link to the ACC Preview that gives a little background information on the system. For the rest of you, feel free to dive on in. Check back in a few days for the Big 10 Preview.

Big East Projections



Cincinnati
Bearly any Fumbles
Cincinnati led the nation with only 2 fumbles lost in 2009. While they were lucky to only lose 2 fumbles for the entire year, they also finished first in fewest fumbles committed (11). In addition to this, Cincinnati was also very bad at forcing fumbles last season. Their opponents fumbled only 12 times all season (3 teams finished with only 11 opponent fumbles). All this meant that games involving Cincinnati featured the fewest fumbles in 2009.


Connecticut
UCONN Do It
The Huskies have experienced quite a journey over the last decade or so. They have risen from the ranks of IAA to IA Independent status to BCS conference member. Since joining the ranks of the haves (Big East) in 2004, the Huskies have been money in the bank in games against the have-nots, both straight up and against the spread (ATS).

Louisville
Down in Flames
When Steve Kragthorpe took over for Bobby Petrino following the 2006 season, Louisville and their fans were riding high. The Cardinals had just won the Orange Bowl, finishing the season ranked 6th in the nation (and just a blown lead against Rutgers from playing for the national title). Louisville returned 13 starters in 2007, including a senior star-studded quarterback in Brian Brohm, and began the season ranked number 10. The Cardinals opened the season with a 73-10 drubbing of overmatched IAA Murray State and climbed to number 8. That's when the good times stopped. Louisville won only 12 games against IA teams over the next 3 seasons, did not participate in the postseason, and gave Syracuse 2 of their 3 conference wins in that span. Not surprisingly, Kragthorpe was given the axe after completing his 3rd season. Not only did Louisville fall a long way from their perch in the Bobby Petrino-era, they posted the biggest decline in overall winning percentage when comparing the 3-year span of 2004-2006 to the 3-year span of 2007-2009 (the entirety of the Kragthorpe-era) by an extremely large margin.


Pittsburgh
Most Improved
Entering his senior campaign in 2009, Pitt quarterback Bill Stull had thrown 360 career passes for the Panthers netting 2619 yards with a pedestrian TD:Int ratio of 11 to 10. In 2009, Stull threw 321 passes, gaining 2633 yards with 21 touchdowns and 8 interceptions.


Rutgers
Knight and Day
Prior to the 2005 season, Rutgers had participated in one bowl game in their history. They have now gone to 5 straight bowl games, winning 4 of them. However, perhaps more impressive than this feat is the amount by which they have improved in the Big East. Since 2005, Rutgers is 20-15 against their conference brethren (third best record in that span). In the 12 seasons starting in 1993 (when the Big East officially began play) through 2004, the Scarlet Knights won 12 conference games, or an average of one per season.

South Florida
The Missouri Compromise
I know, what the heck does a pre-Civil War law passed all the way back in 1820 have to with the South Florida Bulls? Well, allow me to explain. South Florida is in a unique situation in the Big East. When the end of the calendar year arrives (October, November, and December) the Bulls have an issue their fellow sunshine state universities do not. That is of course, they must annually play in cold weather games. Think about it. Every other year, South Florida must travel to New Jersey (Rutgers), Pennsylvania (Pitt), Kentucky (Louisville), West Virginia, Ohio (Cincinnati), and Connecticut. Their other road contest that occurs every other year is in up-state New York, but that game is indoors. In addition, the fact that the Big East has only 8 teams (thus only 7 conference games), means these games nearly always occur later in the year. The other BCS schools in Florida (Florida, Florida State, and Miami) do not have to deal with the weather issue. The farthest north Florida potentially has to travel late in the year is to Kentucky. Florida State has to travel to Massachusetts every other year, and occasionally must trek to Virgina (Virginia and Virginia Tech). Miami travels to Virginia once a year (as their Virginia and Virginia Tech roadies are split up) and must occasionally journey to Massachusetts. However, for those teams its not virtually guaranteed that those games will be late in the year, and more importantly it represents only a small percentage of their road games. Now that we've identified South Florida's unique situation, how have they performed since joining the Big East in 2005 in those games? The table below lists South Florida's record in outdoor road games in the 'Northern' United States on or after October 1st and their record in all other road games. For the purpose of this study, the 'North' is differentiated by the line drawn during The Missouri Compromise.That's a pretty big difference eh? But schedule strength can account for some of this, so lets dig a little deeper just to be sure. The 'Northern' outdoor road games are all games against Big East foes. The other road games include road games with the resident Big East whipping boy, Syracuse (because it occurs in a climate controlled dome), and the rest are non-conference games, ranging from cupcakes (Western Kentucky and Florida International) to national powers (Auburn, Florida State, Miami, and Penn State). If only there were some way to account for schedule strength. If only a weekly prognostication tool put out by an unbiased third party could rate the teams and determine who was favored and to what extent. Thankfully, Las Vegas and plenty of offshore sportsbooks do produce such a number. Its called the betting line. This next table shows how South Florida has done against the spread (ATS) in both types of games.As you can see, their performance outdoors in the 'North' has not been much better ATS, and their performance in all other road games has been just a shade worse. I think the most damning indictment of South Florida's performance outdoors in the 'North' is this. In 8 of their 15 'Northern' outdoor road games, South Florida has been a betting line favorite. They have won exactly one of those games straight up (1-7 record). Of course, they haven't been huge favorites in those games, as only 2 lines have been by a touchdown or more (the largest line of 9 points against Pitt in 2007 is the only game South Florida has won straight up), but they have been favorites nonetheless. In the 'other' road games, South Florida has been a betting line favorite 10 times. They have not lost a single one of these 'other' road contests. Who knows if this trend will continue under new coach Skip Holtz, but it is something to consider if you find yourself contemplating wagering your mortgage payment on South Florida late in the year.


Syracuse
Orange You Glad It Wasn't Close?
In the present edition of the Big East (since 2005), Syracuse has by far the worst record in league play at 4-31. The second worst team in that span is Connecticut. However, the Huskies have gone a respectable 14-21, meaning they are 10 games clear of the Orange. Perhaps the most amazing dimension of their suckitude has been how non-competitive the Orange have been. Of their 31 league losses, 28 have come by more than a touchdown and 16 (more than half) have come by at least 3 touchdowns. Of their 4 wins, only one has come by more than 7 points (an 18-point shellacking of Rutgers this past season).


West Virginia
Getting Bullied
Since the present incarnation of the Big East began play in 2005, West Virginia has been the league's preeminent program. The Mountaineers have finished above .500 every season in league play, and have won a pair of conference titles. Their overall conference record of 27-8 is tops, and 4 games clear of second-place Cincinnati. The Mountaineers also have a winning record and positive point differential against every team in the conference except South Florida.
Somehow the Bulls, who are a mediocre 17-18 in conference play since joining the Big East, have been the only team to have West Virginia's number.

ACC Preview

Beginning today and continuing every 3 or 4 days after, Statistically Speaking will bring you the 2010 conference previews. We'll begin with the ACC and hit the BCS conferences in alphabetical order. Then we'll move to the independents, and finally hit the 5 non-BCS leagues. Each preview will list what happened last year, and what I project to happen this year. In addition, after the projections, each team has a little mini-stat write-up on some interesting (to me) topic. If you're curious, the projections are based on last year's SDPI rankings coupled with some regression analysis based on returning starters, turnover margin, and record in close games. The projection system then spits out a winning percentage and I use this winning percentage to compute the Log 5 probability of each team winning the league games on their schedule with adjustments for homefield advantage (the Log 5 probability link is very math intensive be warned). I then add up the probabilities and and the result is the estimated number of conference wins (rounded up or down). One note on the projections. Ties are broken in the order of finish based on the predicted number of wins, not the projected result of the head-t0-head game. For example, in the ACC Coastal Division, Virginia Tech is projected as the division champ with 6.3 wins while Miami is projected as 2nd with 6.1 wins. Thus they are both projected for 6 wins and even though Miami is seen as the favorite in their head-to-head game (homefield), Virginia Tech gets the nod because they are projected for more wins. Enjoy.

ACC Projections



Boston College
The Most Underrated Team of the Decade
Boston College played in a bowl game every year of the past decade. Only 10 other schools can make that claim (Florida State, Georgia Tech, Virginia Tech, Ohio State, Oklahoma, Texas, Texas Tech, Florida, Georgia, and LSU). The Eagles won at least 8 games every season except 2000. They went 88-40 for the decade. Yet, they almost never appeared in any preseason polls, and if they did, they were not ranked very high. If you'll pardon the pun, the Eagles certainly flew under the proverbial radar. Perhaps the most telling statistic from the past decade is that the Eagles tied for the second most 'surprise' top 25 appearances in the 2000's. A 'surprise' top 25 appearance means the Eagles did not begin the regular season in the top 25, yet ended the season (after the bowls) ranked there. This is based on the preseason and end of season AP top25 polls.One of those 4 appearances (2007) was also a surprise top 10, as Boston College finished the season ranked 10th in the nation.


Clemson
What is Clutch? Baby Don't Hurt Me No More
Since 2005, the Clemson Tigers have posted a solid overall record of 41-24. Yet, in a division with relative lightweights such as Wake Forest, Maryland, NC State, and Boston College, and a powerhouse in disrepair (Florida State), the Tigers have managed only one division crown. The culprit? A complete inability to win close games.The Tigers have been the exact opposite of money in the bank in close games the past few years (money in the fire? money in the shredder? money in the stock market?). Their record in non-close games is phenomenal (won nearly 84%). However, in one-score games they have won just a shade under 36%, and in really close games (a field goal or less), they have won under a quarter of them.


Florida State
Tis' Better to Have Played and Lost
Since the inception of the BCS in 1998, the Florida State Seminoles have played in 6 BCS bowl games. The Seminoles are tied with in-state rival Florida for 4th all-time in BCS bowl appearances, trailing only Ohio State (8), Oklahoma (7), and Southern Cal (7). However, once they've made it to the big stage, the 'Noles have had trouble winning there. Florida State holds the dubious distinction of being tied with Oklahoma for the most BCS bowl losses with 5.The Seminoles also have the worst record of any team with 4 or more BCS bowl appearances. To be fair, their one win (over Virginia Tech following the 1999 season) was pretty monumental as it gave legendary head coach Bobby Bowden his 2nd and final national title.


Maryland
Something Rotten in the Fridge
When Ralph Friedgen arrived at College Park prior to the 2001 football season, the Terps had endured 5 straight losing seasons and had not participated in the postseason since 1990. Friedgen proceeded to win the conference title in his first season at the helm, breaking up a streak of 9 consecutive conference titles by the Florida State Seminoles. Friedgen didn't stop there. His Terps won 11 and 10 games in his 2nd and 3rd seasons respectively, concluding both with beatdowns of Tennessee and West Virginia in the Peach and Gator Bowls respectively by a combined score of 71-10. It looked like Maryland had made their way into the national elite. However, in the last 6 seasons, despite moderate success, at least by historical Maryland standards, the Terps have posted only one winning conference record and have yet to find themselves ranked at the conclusion of any season. Here's how Friedgen's record shakes out over his first 3 and last 6 seasons.

NC State
Another Reason Your Defense Sucks
In his 3 seasons as head coach of the Wolfpack, Tom O'Brien has yet to field a defense that finished better than 11th in the ACC. That is the primary reason the Wolfpack have gone a disappointing 16-21 with no winning records in those 3 seasons. However, one overlooked part of the Wolfpack's trouble has been their inability to generate touchbacks on kickoffs. In the past 2 seasons, NC State has kicked off 134 times. Only once has the opposing kick returner downed the ball in the endzone. For your viewing pleasure, the 10 worst touchback teams since 2008.

Wake Forest
In Good Company
Growing up a Wake Forest fan, I grew accustomed to blowouts at an early age. I guess it kept me humble. However, recently Wake Forest has been very competitive, and downright good (historically speaking). In the past 4 seasons, 19 BCS-conference teams have lost 8 games or fewer by double digits. Here is the complete list.That's pretty good company to keep. It's even more impressive when you consider that in the year before current coach Jim Grobe arrived (2000), the Deacons lost 7 games by at least double digits.


Duke
Good at Basketball, Bad at Football
While David Cutcliffe may yet change the course of football at Duke and have the Blue Devils back in the postseason for the first time since 1994, its not hyperbole to say Duke has been very bad at the game of football for the better part of the past 2 decades. Their suckitude has not been limited to games against other Division IA teams either. Since 2005, only 3 teams have lost multiple games to non-IA teams, and Duke is the only one that hails from a BCS conference.The Blue Devils have lost twice to Richmond, falling to the Spiders in 2006 and again in 2009. In addition, if you happen to be an athletic director for a school reading this blog, you may want to avoid scheduling New Hampshire and North Dakota State. The Wildcats from New Hampshire have beaten 4 IA teams since 2005 (Army, Ball State, Marshall, and Northwestern) and the Bison from North Dakota State have won 3 such games (Ball State, Central Michigan, and Minnesota).


Georgia Tech
Hiding a Bad Defense
I have a soft spot in my heart for Paul Johnson, and by extension, any team he coaches. When his option attack is clicking, its a thing of beauty. Since I live in ACC/SEC country, I get a chance to watch his team a great deal throughout the season. In 2009, I watched Georgia Tech's first 2 conference games (Clemson and Miami) and came away with the feeling that his defense was sorely lacking. The Tigers dug themselves into an early hole in Atlanta, but thanks to a handful of big plays, fought their way back, only to lose on a last second field goal. In their next game, the defense could not stop Miami until they were already multiple scores behind, eventually surrendering 454 yards in what would end up being their only conference loss. I also watched their epic pinball battle with Florida State, their game against my alma mater (Wake Forest), the rivalry game with Georgia, and the ACC Championship tilt with Clemson. The Yellow Jackets played well against Wake, but in the other games, their defense was average at best, but often terrible. Thus, when I ran the SDPI numbers in the offseason, I was surprised with how well Georgia Tech rated out. Their defense ranked 4th in the ACC in 2009, surrendering about 330 yards per game in conference play (a little more than half a standard deviation above average). So clearly, this was another case of cold, hard statistics more accurately capturing a team's ability than the human eye. Or was it? Here's another measure of ACC defense. This time instead of ranking a team by the yards they give up, they are ranked by the average number of yards per play (conference games only).When we evaluate the defenses in terms of yards per play, Georgia Tech ranks a more intuitive 8th in the ACC. As you can tell, their defense was also below the ACC aggregate average of 5.48 yards per play. However, the most interesting facet of the Georgia Tech defense from my standpoint is the number of plays they faced. ACC teams ran only 461 plays against the Tech defense, thanks to Tech's offensive style of play where the clock rarely stops running. This was by far the lowest number in the ACC. Virginia Tech, who faced the second fewest plays, was still on the field for over 40 more plays than the Yellow Jackets. At the other end of the spectrum, Georgia Tech's defense was on the field for 106 fewer plays than Virginia which led the league in defensive plays. 106 plays represents nearly 23% of Georgia Tech's total plays. Compared to the Virginia defense, the Georgia Tech defense effectively played only 3 quarters of football against ACC foes in 2009!


Miami
Not Getting What You Paid For
When they ACC raided the Big East in 2004, the thinking was by adding Virginia Tech and Miami they would become a super-conference. Each season at least one, and possibly two or three teams, would be in contention for the national title. It hasn't quite worked out that way, and one of the primary reasons has been the fall of Miami into mediocrity. The Hurricanes were the crown jewel of the ACC expansion, but as the table below details, they have the fewest conference wins of either of the 3 newbies.The Hurricanes are nearly 2 seasons worth of games behind Virginia Tech in the league standings, and they have fewer wins than Boston College despite having an extra year in the league! Miami has yet to win a conference or even a division title since joining the ACC in 2004.


North Carolina
Ding Dong! The Witch is Dead
For all intents and purposes, Florida State's dynastic stranglehold on the ACC ended in the early afternoon hours of September 22nd 2001 at Keenan Stadium in Chapel Hill, North Carolina. Wake Forest fell to Maryland in a closely contested 27-20 game that I attended, so I was unable to watch what unfolded, but when I returned to my dorm I could not believe the score that flashed across the screen. The Tar Heels, 0-3 heading into the game, unleashed a fusillade on the 2-0 Seminoles, winning 41-9. Heading into that game, Florida State had appeared in 3 consecutive national title games, boasted a 71-2 ACC record (70-2 over their first 9 seasons, and 1-0 in the current season after waylaying Duke to open the year). Including that game, Florida State is a much more pedestrian 46-25 in the nearly 9 seasons since versus the rest of the ACC. I certainly do not contend that North Carolina's amazing win somehow gave other ACC teams confidence that Florida State could be beaten. Florida State's sag in recruiting and the strengthening of the rest of the ACC would be much more plausible reasons, but the win by the Tar Heels is symbolic of the veneer of invincibility being utterly destroyed.


Virginia
The Welsh Army
Everyone knows George Welsh dragged Virginia out of the football abyss in the early 1980's. Prior to his arrival, the Cavs had never played in a bowl game and no coach had left Charlottesville with an overall record above .500 since Frank Murry in 1945. Welsh turned Virginia into an annual top-25 threat and even shared 2 ACC titles (1989 and 1995). However, another important factor in his favor was his ability to occasionally beat in-state rival Virginia Tech. In his 19 seasons at Virgina, Welsh was 9-10 against the Hokies. In his last 14 seasons after righting the ship, he was 8-6 against Virginia Tech. His successor, noted curmudgeon Al Groh, beat Virginia Tech exactly once in 9 seasons. Heading into 2010, the Cavs have lost 6 straight and 10 of 11 to their in-state rivals.


Virginia Tech
A Passing Trend
Under Bud Foster, Virginia Tech always has one of the best defenses in the nation. In fact, since 2005, they have been the preeminent pass defense. In the past 5 years, Virginia Tech has held opposing quarterbacks below a cumulative 100 passer rating for the season an amazing 5 times, easily tops in the nation in that span.

Sun Belt Recap: 2005-2009

Believe it or not, this is the final league we will examine in our half-decade retrospective! That means that the beginning of the regular season is right around the corner (50 days).

First off, here are the combined Sun Belt standings from 2005-2009.As you can see, Troy has dominated the league. The Trojans have won outright or shared the last 4 conference titles. Amazingly though, every team in the Sun Belt has had at least one losing conference season since 2005! Even mighty Troy was not immune to this as they went 3-4 in 2005. There has only been one undefeated season in Sun Belt play since 2005. Surprise, surprise, it was Troy that accomplished that feat (in 2009). North Texas and Florida International are the only teams to not post at least one winning season in conference play since 2005. North Texas never finished better than 2-5 (2005 and 2006), while Florida International managed a 3-4 record in both 2005 and 2008.

Now here is the standard deviation of each team's conference record (in wins). Teams are ranked from the most inconsistent to the least.Surprisingly, the league's 2 best teams have also been its most inconsistent. Middle Tennessee has balanced a pair of one-loss league seasons with a pair of losing conference records to make them the most inconsistent team. Arkansas State and North Texas have been the most consistent teams in the league, with North Texas being consistently bad and Arkansas State being consistently mediocre. Western Kentucky has only played one season of league ball, so obviously, they were not included in this evaluation.

Now here is each team's point differential in conference play since 2005.Again Troy has not only been the best team in the conference, they have been the most dominant. In fact, if you add up the point differentials for the other 3 teams that have outscored their opponents in league play since 2005 (Middle Tennessee, Florida Atlantic, and Louisiana-Monroe), they barely eclipse Troy's (452 to 448).

With this being the end of the decade, here's the tally of conference titles.The Sun Belt did not begin league play until 2001, so there are only 9 titles to divvy up instead of 10. Before the wheels fell off beginning in 2005, North Texas was the resident league overlord from 2001-2004. The Mean Green posted an amazing 25-1 record against their league foes in that span! Of course, since then, the Mean Green have been the worst team in the league posting a putrid 6-30 record leaving them exactly even at 31-31 since the league's formation. In between the North Texas and Troy dynasties, Arkansas State won the league in 2005 and Florida Atlantic made a surprise run to the league title in 2007.

And finally, what was the biggest takeaway from the 00 decade in the Sun Belt? The league's improvement in the postseason. In the first 5 years of the league's existence (2001-2005) the Sun Belt teams participated in 6 bowl games. Those teams were 1-5 in the bowl season and posted a scoring margin of -76. All 5 of the losses were by double digits and the lone win was a 5-point decision by North Texas over Cincinnati in 2002. In the past 4 seasons (2006-2009) Sun Belt teams have participated in 7 bowl games. Those teams have posted an 4-3 record with a scoring margin of +31. Only a single loss has come by double digits. The other 3 losses have come in overtime. Meanwhile, 3 of the 4 wins have come by double digits. The Sun Belt has gone from token representation in the bowl structure to a threat to every postseason game they play.

Sun Belt SDPI

And now we come to the final conference in our offseason sojourn. The Sun Belt may be glossed over by the casual football fan, but if you look closely, there's some good football played here.

This first paragraph will explain how SDPI is calculated. So if you want the meat of this article skip on down. In the 2009 Sub Belt regular season, conference play only, the average Sun Belt team gained and allowed 3266.89 yards. The standard deviation for yards gained (offense) was 552.80 yards. The standard deviation for yards allowed (defense) was 413.26 yards. FAU gained 3705 yards and allowed 3390 yards. Their offensive SDPI was 0.79 = [(3705-3266.89)/552.80]. Their defensive SDPI was -0.30 = [(3266.89-3390)/413.26)]. Their total SDPI was 0.49. This number ranked 4th in the Sun Belt.

To refresh your memory, here are the 2009 Sun Belt standings.

Now here are the 2009 Sun Belt SDPI standings. The standings are sorted by total SDPI with ranking for each category (out of 9 teams) in parentheses.
The top of the SDPI standings fall in line with the top of the actual standings. Troy was statistically the league's dominant team and they rolled to an undefeated conference season. Middle Tennessee was statistically a strong number 2, and they finished conference play unblemished save for their game against Troy. Louisiana-Monroe and Florida Atlantic were the other teams with SDPI finishes significantly higher than average, and they were the only other teams that finished with winning conference records. The only significant differences between the actual and SDPI standings came in the form of North Texas and FIU. The Mean Green from North Texas were far from a 'good' team, but from their performance, we could have expected them to win about 3 conference games. They won only a single game thanks to 4 league losses (6 overall) by a touchdown or less, compared to no wins by that small a number. Meanwhile, FIU finished with a mediocre league record, but were statistically the worst team in the conference. They weren't outstanding in one-score games (2-1 in the conference), but the few close wins they did manage kept them out of the basement.

Conference Superlatives

Best Offense: Troy 1.86
Troy topped 400 yards in every league game, with their worst offensive performance coming against Louisiana-Monroe, when they only managed 428 yards. Had they only gained that many yards in each, they still would have finished better than half the league in offense.

Worst Offense: Arkansas St -1.33
This is probably not what head coach Steve Roberts envisioned when he began the season with a senior quarterback who had started since his freshman year, a senior running back coming off 3 consecutive 1000-yard seasons, and a pair of returning seniors starting at receiver. The Red Wolves broke the 400-yards barrier only twice in league play, against Florida International and Western Kentucky, the most porous offenses in the league. Blame can be thrown at the feet of an inexperienced offensive line, but the good news for 2010 is that all 5 starters return.

Best Defense: Arkansas St 1.36
And this of course makes the offense's struggles all the more disconcerting. Had the offense pulled their weight, the Red Wolves could have been champs in the Sun Belt. As it was, after surrendering 507 yards to Troy in their league opener, the defense clamped down and held 4 of their next 7 conference foes under 300 yards (last 7 averaged 314 yards per game against them).

Worst Defense: FIU -1.38
The Panthers held only 2 Sun Belt opponents under 400 yards (Louisiana-Lafayette and Western Kentucky).

What's in Store for Next Year?
After earning at least a share of the last 4 Sun Belt titles, 2010 could finally be the year someone dethrones Troy. Troy will be breaking in a new quarterback from last season's top-ranked offense and 8 new starters from the 4th ranked defense. However, head coach Larry Blakeney has built a consistent winner at Troy, so count the Trojans out at your own risk. Who is most likely to unseat the league overlord? Middle Tennessee State returns alliterative quarterback Dwight Dasher along with 7 other offensive starters to a team that won 10 games last season. The rest of the conference appears to be a rather large mish-mash. Expect North Texas to make major strides in Todd Dodge's 4th season. The Mean Green were far better than their disappointing 1-7 Sun Belt record year ago and with 17 starters back and a little better luck could get back to their first bowl game since 2004. Florida Atlantic posted the second best offense in the league last season even though star quarterback Rusty Smith missed the latter half of the season with an injury. Jeff Van Camp performed admirably in his stead, posting a passer rating of 141.23 with 12 touchdowns and just 2 interceptions. Unfortunately, the Owls lose 5 starters along the offensive line and last season's top-2 receivers. Their bowl hopes will likely rest upon improvement by a defense that returns 9 starters from a middling unit (6th in the Sun Belt last year). Arkansas State was a major disappointment last year, finishing with just 4 wins after being bowl eligible 3 of the previous 4 seasons. The defense was the best the Sun Belt had to offer last season, while the offense was the worst. The defense brings back the top-4 tacklers from last season and could once again be strong. The offense does return all 5 starting offensive linemen (including 4 seniors), but loses all its skill position players. Louisiana-Lafayette was bowl-eligible for the 4th time in 5 seasons last year, but were near the bottom of the league statistically. 5 of their wins were of the close variety (decided by 8 points or less) while they suffered only one such defeat. The Cajuns may improve, but lady luck will likely keep them near the middle of the Sun Belt standings. Louisiana-Monroe was statistically the 3rd strongest team last season (behind both Troy and Middle Tennessee), but has a new head coach (and a relatively poor one at that) in Todd Berry. Berry was dealt a rough hand at Army, but did little to improve the situation, going 5-36 from 2000-2003. Florida International and Western Kentucky will likely compete with Louisiana-Monroe to stay out of the basement. Western Kentucky went winless last season, and while they were bad, they were also unlucky. The Hilltoppers lost 4 games by 8 points or less and were much more competitive in their final 3, losing them by a combined 13 points. With 18 starters back, the road to IA respectability will begin in 2010.

MAC Recap: 2005-2009

In our half-decade retrospective, we now come to the other conference in the nation's heartland, the MAC.

First off, here are the combined MAC standings from 2005-2009.No surprise at the top. Central Michigan has won 3 of the last 4 MAC titles and holds their place at the top of the conference heap, 8 games clear of Ball State and Western Michigan. Temple has only been in the league 3 seasons (they joined prior to 2007), but their league winning percentage of .625 would rank second. In fact, Temple has more league wins in 3 seasons than Miami, Kent State, and Eastern Michigan have in 5! The MAC standings have been very fluid from year to year. 10 of the league's 13 members have had at least one winning and at least one losing conference record in the past 5 years. The only teams not have both are Eastern Michigan (only team with no winning record), Temple (one of 2 teams without a losing record), and Central Michigan (only team with a winning record each year).

Now here is the standard deviation of each team's conference record (in wins). Teams are ranked from the most inconsistent to the least.While the most inconsistent team hails from the MAC West, the model of inconsistency has been the MAC East. 4 of the divisions 7 teams have a standard deviation of at least 2 conference wins! Miami, Ohio, and Buffalo have all won division titles in the past 5 seasons and also finished in last or second to last place in the MAC East. The 3 Michigan schools have been among the most consistent with Eastern Michigan consistently finishing at the bottom of the MAC West, Central Michigan consistently finishing at the top, and Western Michigan consistently finishing near the top. Akron has been the most consistent team of the past 5 seasons, thanks in part to posting 3 consecutive 3 win seasons after their surprise league title in 2005.

Now here is each team's point differential in conference play since 2005.Once again, Central Michigan has been the king of the hill, besting their league opponents by nearly twice the margin of second place Northern Illinois. Similarly, at the bottom of the standings, Eastern Michigan has lost by more than the combined margins of Kent State and Buffalo, the teams ranked 11th and 12th in conference point differential.

With this being the end of the decade, here's the tally of conference and division titles.Remember Marshall? Before heading to greener (yes that's somewhat of a pun) pastures in Conference USA, the Thundering Herd were one of the MAC's best teams. They played in the first 6 MAC Championship Games (97-02), winning 5 of them. If the MAC has been anything in the past decade, its socialistic. 10 of the league's 13 current members have played in the title game at least once (and consider Temple has only been a member for 3 seasons), with 5 different (current) teams winning the league title.

And finally, what was the biggest takeaway from the 00 decade in the MAC? The dominance of the MAC West versus the MAC East. While the MAC East and MAC West have split on conference titles in the past decade (5 each), the West has dominated the East in regular season play. Despite several shifts in conference membership since the decade dawned, the West has maintained its superiority to the East as the chart below can attest.The West has had only 3 losing seasons against the East in intra-division play, and have won at least twice as many as they have lost 4 times.

MAC SDPI

Only a pair of leagues left to review. Even though summer has just begun, the long and perilous offseason is winding down. This week, we'll examine the Big 10's little brother, the MAC.

This first paragraph will explain how SDPI is calculated. So if you want the meat of this article skip on down. In the 2009 MAC regular season, conference play only, championship games excluded, the average MAC team gained and allowed 2955.615 yards. The standard deviation for yards gained (offense) was 458.77 yards. The standard deviation for yards allowed (defense) was 263.35 yards. Bowling Green gained 3313 yards and allowed 3193 yards. Their offensive SDPI was 0.78 = [(3313-2955.615)/458.77]. Their defensive SDPI was -0.90 = [(2955.615-3193)/263.35]. Their total SDPI was -0.12. This number ranked 7th in the MAC.

To refresh your memory, here are the 2009 MAC standings.

Now here are the 2009 MAC SDPI standings. The standings are sorted by division by total SDPI with ranking for each category (out of 13 teams) in parentheses.Out West, the SDPI standings are aligned pretty well with the actual standings. Central Michigan was head and shoulders above the rest of the MAC statistically, and they rolled to an undefeated league record. However, over in the East, we see some interesting results. 2008 champ, Buffalo, finished with a losing league record, but rates out as the 3rd best team in the league and best team in the East. Further down the standings, Miami of Ohio finished last in the East yet rates as the 2nd best team in the division and 4th best in the whole league! Furthermore, at the top of the East, we have a pair of teams (Ohio and Temple) that finished a combined 14-2 against the MAC, yet both were only middling according to SDPI. How can this be? Ohio and Temple posted the top-2 in-conference turnover margins last season (+11 for Temple and +10 for Ohio). Buffalo was -2 and Miami was awful at -15 (last in the league). Ohio was unbeaten in one-score league games (4-0) as was Temple (2-0). Meanwhile, Buffalo was 2-4 in such games and Miami was 1-2. Ohio and Temple also scored a lot of their points via special teams and defense. Ohio scored 5 non-offensive touchdowns in their 8 MAC games, with 3 coming via punt returner LaVon Brazill. Temple also scored 5 non-offensive touchdowns in 8 MAC games with Delano Green scoring twice on punt returns and James Nixon scoring twice on kickoff returns. Buffalo and Miami scored only once between them in non-traditional ways, with Miami returning an interception for a touchdown in their win versus Toledo.

Conference Superlatives

Best Offense: Central Michigan 1.88
It was a fitting swan song for the poor man's Tim Tebow, Dan LeFevour. LeFevour threw for 28 touchdowns and ran for 15 more in his senior campaign. Under his guidance, the Chippewas were never held below 406 yards against MAC opponents, until their closer than expected win in the MAC Championship Game versus Ohio.

Worst Offense: Eastern Michigan -1.72
The Eagles best performance was a 364-yard day against Western Michigan. Had they averaged that many yards per conference game, that figure would have only ranked 7th in the MAC!

Best Defense: Northern Illinois 1.98
Until their regular season finale with Central Michigan (allowed 512 yards), the Huskies held every MAC opponent to 387 yards or fewer. They held 5 of their 8 MAC foes under 300 yards.

Worst Defense: Eastern Michigan -1.82
Befitting a winless outfit, the Eagles had both the league's worst offense and its worst defense. Every team gained at least 310 yards against the Eagles, and 5 teams topped 400 yards.

What's in Store for Next Year?
East Division:
Last year's co-champion Temple Owls return the MAC's leading rusher in sophomore Bernard Pierce, so they will likely get the media's nod as the preseason favorite. However, the East has been very unpredictable the past few seasons. Off a 4-7 (3-5 conference) season in 2005, Ohio won the East in 2006. Off a 2-10 (2-6 conference) season in 2006, Miami won the East in 2007. Off a 5-7 (5-3 conference) season in 2007, but just a year removed from a 2-10 (1-7 conference) record in 2006, Buffalo won the East in 2008. Off a 4-8 (3-5 conference) season in 2008, Ohio won the East in 2009. Cinderella will likely be in contention once again in 2010. Look out for Buffalo and Miami, a pair of teams highlighted earlier who were better than their actual records last season. Buffalo has a new coach and quarterback, but returns 8 starters from the league's 4th ranked defense. Miami has 19 starters back, and despite a brutal non-conference slate (Florida, Missouri, and Cincinnati) could play in the MAC Championship Game, and finish with a losing record (as they did in 2007). With the exception of Akron and Bowling Green, the MAC East looks wide open heading into 2010.

West Division:
Central Michigan has won 3 of the least 4 MAC West titles, but without record-setting quarterback Dan LeFevour and with a new coach, the Chippewas look poised to fall back to the pack. Western Michigan and Toledo also lose experienced senior quarterbacks in Tim Hiller and Aaron Opelt respectively. So who is the favorite heading into 2010? A good bet to step up and take the West are the Huskies from Northern Illinois. Jerry Kill has continued a fine winning tradition in DeKalb. Under Kill and his predecessor Joe Novak, the Huskies have finished with a winning overall record 8 times in the past 10 years. The Huskies bring back 8 starters from the league's stingiest defense and also return their starting quarterback and running back.

Conference USA Recap: 2005-2009

In our half-decade retrospective, we now come to a league that spans from deep in the heart of Texas to the eastern part of North Carolina. While the league has yet to produce a BCS-caliber team like the Mountain West and WAC, Conference USA has seen its share of press clippings in the last few years. Who can forget East Carolina's tour de force upsets of Virginia Tech and West Virginia to begin the 2008 season or the similar path trekked by Houston at the beginning of 2009 when they knocked off Big 12 neighbors Oklahoma State and Texas Tech?

First off, here are the combined Conference USA standings from 2005-2009.The league has been dominated for the last 5 years by a handful of teams. The top-5 teams in the conference in that time span have all won more than 60% of their league games. Its a close race at the top with Houston narrowly edging out East Carolina and Tulsa as the kings of the conference. Houston, East Carolina, and Southern Miss are the only schools to not post a losing season in league play since 2005. Tulane is the only school to not finish with at least a .500 mark in conference play at least once. The Green Wave had their best season in 2007 when they went 3-5. SMU is the only team to have gone winless in league play, having accomplished that 'feat' in back-to-back seasons (2007 and 2008). Amazingly, even with the combined 0-16 record in those seasons, they still rank ahead of 2 teams in wins over the past 5 years. No team has gone undefeated in the league since the divisional format was introduced in 2005. However, at least one team has gone 7-1 in each season. UCF went 7-1 twice, in both 2005 and 2007. East Carolina went 7-1 in 2009, Tulsa and Rice both finished 7-1 in 2008, and Houston went 7-1 in 2006.

Now here is the standard deviation of each team's conference record (in wins). Teams are ranked from the most inconsistent to the least.Most conferences have one or two teams that have been remarkably inconsistent since 2005. Conference USA has 4. SMU has seen both the extremes (0-8 record twice and 6-2 this past season) and the middle (4-4 twice). Rice has gone 7-1 and 6-2 as well as 1-7 and 2-6. Memphis has pinballed from 5-3 to 1-7 to 6-2 to 4-4 to 1-7. UCF has won a pair of division titles and also finished in the basement. On the other end of the spectrum, Marshall has won either 3 or 4 conference games each season since 2005.

Now here is each team's point differential in conference play since 2005.The league's best team has also been its most dominant. After narrowly edging Tulsa in the standings, Houston also narrowly edges the Golden Hurricane in point differential. Surprisingly, Southern Miss is very close to the western powers in terms of per game dominance. However, the Golden Eagles have struggled to win one-score games, going 7-11 in such games since 2005. Conversely, East Carolina is 13-5 in such games, enabling them to finish near the top of the standings despite a weaker point differential. Tulane has been the league's most dominated team by a healthy margin. Their point differential of -576 is more than that of the 2nd (UAB) and 3rd (Rice) worst teams combined (-443).

With this being the end of the decade, here's the tally of conference and division titles.Ah Louisville, remember them? The Cardinals won a pair of Conference USA titles under John L Smith in 2000 and 2001, then won another in 2004 under Bobby Petrino in their final season before heading to the Big East. Another former member, Cincinnati, also won the title in 2002. Since the divisional format began in 2005, the West has been represented each season by Houston or Tulsa in the CUSA Championship Game. However, after taking the first 2 contests (Tulsa in 2005 and Houston in 2006), the West has dropped 3 straight. East Carolina is the current member with the most titles in the 2000's, having brought home consecutive wins to close the decade.

And finally, what was the biggest takeaway from the 00 decade in Conference USA?
The metamorphosis of the Rice offense. Ken Hatfield came to Rice in 1994 after being canned by Clemson. Hatfield implemented an option-style, run-centric offense. Hatfield stayed at Rice until his ouster following the 2005 season. I don't have passing numbers for his tenure in the 1990's but from 2000-2005 (6 seasons), Hatfield's Rice teams threw a combined 43 touchdowns, with 11 being the most in any single season. Over those 6 seasons, the Owls averaged 24.6 points per game, topping out at 28.6 points per game in 2003. Hatfield was replaced by Todd Graham in 2006 and the offense shifted dramatically. Behind the passing of quarterback Chase Clement, the hands of receiver Jarett Dillard, and the toughness of tight end hybrid James Casey the Owls went on quite a run from 2006-2008. Over those 3 seasons, Rice threw 106 touchdown passes as a team and averaged 33.2 points per game. They also did it under 2 different coaches. After leading Rice to a bowl game in 2006, Graham bolted for division rival Tulsa. His replacement David Bailiff didn't change offensive schemes and the Owls continued to produce. Switching from a run-heavy option offense to one that relies on the pass does not usually produce such extreme results so quickly. Clement, Dillard, and Casey matriculated after the 2008 season and there were some growing pains in 2009. The 2009 Owls threw only 14 touchdowns and averaged just over 18 points per game, but did improve as the season wore on, averaging 25 points per game over the final third of the season after managing only 14.9 per game over the first two-thirds. With 9 offensive starters back in 2010, expect the Owls to more closely resemble the offense that took the field near the end of the 2009 campaign.

Conference USA SDPI

Slowly, but surely we are getting there. The regular season is only a little more than 12 weeks away. And we only have 3 more conferences to review. We'll start the home stretch with Conference USA.

This first paragraph will explain how SDPI is calculated. So if you want the meat of this article skip on down. In the 2009 Conference USA regular season, conference play only, championship games excluded, the average Conference USA team gained and allowed 3334.75 yards. The standard deviation for yards gained (offense) was 626.06 yards. The standard deviation for yards allowed (defense) was 319.87 yards. Marshall gained 3070 yards and allowed 3088 yards. Their offensive SDPI was -0.42 = [(3070-3334.75)/626.06]. Their defensive SDPI was 0.77 = [(3334.75-3088)/319.87]. Their total SDPI was 0.35. This number ranked 5th in Conference USA.

To refresh your memory, here are the 2009 Conference USA standings.

Now here are the 2009 Conference USA SDPI standings. The standings are sorted by division by total SDPI with ranking for each category (out of 12 teams) in parentheses.There's not a great deal of disconnect between the actual and SDPI standings. However, UTEP and SMU did perform a little differently than their respective conference records would indicate. UTEP only managed 3 conference wins thanks to a poor record in one-score games (1-4 in such games). However, the Miners have only themselves to blame for being in those games in the first place. The Miners crushed conference bowl teams Houston and Marshall by a combined 48 points, but let the poorer teams on the schedule (league doormats UAB, Tulane, and Rice) hang around. The Miners lost those 3 games by a combined 13 points. Meanwhile SMU was able to tie for the Conference USA West title because they won nearly all their one-score games (5-1 in such games). In their 8 league games, SMU outscored their opponents by a total of 9 points, which is much more indicative of a team that wins about half of its conference games.

Conference Superlatives

Best Offense: Houston 2.36
The Cougars were head and shoulders above the rest of the league when it came to moving the football. They gained over 600 yards in 5 of their 8 conference games. In their worst offensive performance, they gained 394 yards. The worst offense in the league, Rice, gained 391 yards in their best offensive showcase.

Worst Offense: Rice -1.39
Rice was held below 300 yards in half their conference games, and averaged roughly half the yardage (308) in conference play compared to the league's top offense (602) in Houston.

Best Defense: UCF 2.03
The Knights won 6 straight conference games after beginning the year 0-2, but they had an interesting defensive split in their final 3 contests. They held Houston in check (relatively) in allowing 423 yards. The following week, they made Tulane look like a high school, permitting only 50 yards to the Green Wave. They then closed the regular season by allowing a season high (versus conference opponents) 527 yards to UAB.

Worst Defense: Memphis -1.25
The Tigers suffered through an awful season, and their defense was the main reason. Only 2 conference opponents failed to top 400 yards against them.

What's in Store for Next Year?
East Division:
The top of the East Division should be very competitive in 2010. Two-time reigning champ East Carolina will have a hard time holding onto their title. Not only do they lose coach Skip Holtz, but also 8 of their top-11 tacklers, their starting running back, and starting quarterback. Head coach Ruffin McNeill plans to bring at least an abridged version of the offense he learned under Mike Leach at Texas Tech, but it will probably take at least a year before all cylinders are firing in line. With the Pirates likely in rebuilding mode, the champion of the East will likely be either UCF, Southern Miss, or Marshall. UCF boasted the league's best defense last season and returns most of the key contributors from that defense with one large exception. Defensive end Jarvis Geathers, who finished 2nd in Conference USA in sacks, is gone, but defensive end Bruce Miller, who led Conference USA in sacks, is back. The Knights do have to replace their starting quarterback, but could still see an uptick on offense as they return 4 starters on the offensive line and an 1100-yard rusher. Southern Miss suffered through a disappointing 7-6 season in 2009, and even with the loss of the school's all-time leading rusher, Damion Fletcher, could see some improvement in 2010. Wide receiver DeAndre Brown will be 21 months removed from a gruesome broken tibia that he suffered in the 2008 New Orleans Bowl. After catching 67 balls for 1117 yards as a freshman in 2008, his numbers slipped to 47 catches for 785 yards last season. Expect a return to 2008 form in 2010. If you're looking for a surprise champion in the East, keep an eye on Marshall. The Thundering Herd qualified for their first bowl game since 2004 last year, but that was not enough to save Mark Snyder's job. New coach John 'Doc' Holliday is the new head man, having come from in-state big brother West Virginia. The 2010 version of the Herd will have a senior quarterback under center (Brian Anderson) and the best freshman receiver from the 2009 season (Antavious Wilson). The loss of running back Darius Marshall, who had a year of eligibility remaining, will hurt, but the improvements in the passing game could offset the loss of Marshall. On the other side of the ball, the Herd do lose some key contributors, but they return their best defender in linebacker Mario Harvey who led the team in both tackles and sacks in 2009. After those 4 teams, UAB and Memphis will likely be bringing up the rear in the East. UAB had a real chance at bowl eligibility last season, but a rough non-conference slate, including BCS-conference members Texas A&M and Ole Miss, as well as Sun Belt champ Troy, gave them no margin for error within the league. The Blazers went 4-4, but unfortunately dropped their season finale against UCF and finished a win shy of bowl eligibility. UAB boasted the best offense in the East last season, but that certainly won't be the case in 2010 as the Blazers lose their do-everything quarterback Joe Webb. Webb not only threw for over 2200 yards and 21 touchdowns last season, but he was also the team's leading rusher with over 1400 yards. Needless to say, he won't be easily replaced. Memphis hit rock bottom in 2009, notching just one league win and fielding the league's worst defense. Head coach Tommy West was let go and his replacement Larry Porter will likely fair a little better in his initial season (maybe 2 or 3 league wins), but don't expect any miracles.

West Division:
Houston will once again be a prime contender in the West Division thanks to their high-powered offense. Quarterback Case Keenum, who has thrown 88 touchdowns over the past 2 seasons, returns along with 3, thats right, 3 1000-yard receivers. If the defense can just be a little better (only Memphis was worse last season) Houston will be the prohibitive favorite in the West. Speaking of great offenses, UTEP should again have one of the best in Conference USA in 2010. Quarterback Trevor Vitttoe, who has thrown 75 touchdown passes in his career, will look to get the Miners back to the postseason for the first time since 2005. Vittatoe will have help in his quest in the form of running back Donald Buckram who gained 1594 yards on the ground in 2009. The defense loses a lot of starters, roughly 7 depending on your accounting practices, but the players who were there didn't exactly set a new standard for greatness last season (9th in the league in defense). SMU would also seem to be a legitimate threat to bring home the crown too. While the Mustangs were not quite as good as their sterling league record, 2010 will mark the 3rd year of the June Jones regime, which means his system will be almost fully integreated in Dallas. After winning 21 combined games in 2007 and 2008, Tulsa took a surprising step back in 2009. The Golden Hurricane posted their first losing record since 2004. The offense was still solid, finishing 4th in the league, but the defense regressed and Tulsa suffered through a 6-game losing streak where they allowed an average of 36.2 points and 3 consecutive times allowed at least 44. If the defense can improve, Tulsa will make the West a 4-team race. You can pencil Rice in near the bottom of the West standings in 2010. After posting one of the league's best offenses in 2008, en route to a 10-win season, the Owls lost their all-time leading passer (Chase Clement), receiver (Jarett Dillard), and Thor (James Casey), and saw their offense become the worst in the league. The defense stayed bad, and the Owls were statistically the worst team in Conference USA. The offense should be a little better in 2010, but it will need to reach the heights of 2008 to compensate for the lack of defense, and thats extremely unlikely. But hey, at least Rice isn't Tulane. The Green Wave went the entire decade of the aughts without posting a winning record within the conference. Their best finish was 4-4 in 2002. That was also the only time they broke even. There a little to like about Bob Toledo's team in 2010 including sophomore quarterback Ryan Griffin who played well at the end of last season (8 touchdown passes and 3 interceptions in the final 4 games) and a defense that is unlikely to replicate their futility at forcing turnovers last season (5 in conference play and just 10 overall--last in the nation). Still, the West is jampacked with good to solid teams, so improvement will likely only get to Tulane to 3 league wins tops.

Mountain West Recap: 2005-2009

Two weeks ago we looked at the WAC, a league that has been dominated for the past 5 years by one team. Now we turn our attention to the Mountain West, a league that has been dominated by a mid-major triumvirate.

First off, here are the combined Mountain West standings from 2005-2009.As you can see, BYU, TCU, and Utah have dominated the league over the last half-decade. In fact, the only other team with a winning record in that span is Air Force. BYU is the only Mountain West school that has posted a winning conference record each season since 2005. Utah and TCU both suffered through 4-4 seasons, with Utah's coming in 2005 and TCU's in 2007. Outside of records posted by BYU, TCU, Utah, and Air Force, there have only been 3 other winning conference seasons. Colorado State went 5-3 in 2005, Wyoming went 5-3 in 2006, and New Mexico went 5-3 in 2007. Against all conference foes not named TCU and Utah, BYU is 29-1 since 2005. Against conference foes not named BYU and Utah, TCU is 28-2 since 2005. Against conference foes not named BYU and TCU, Utah is 23-7 since 2005. I'll do the math for you. Since 2005, BYU, TCU, and Utah are a combined 80-10 against the rest of the conference.

Now here is the standard deviation of each team's conference record (in wins). Teams are ranked from the most inconsistent to the least.Colorado State has been the league's most inconsistent team over the past 5 seasons. They finished the 2005 season with a 5-3 record, but immediately fell on hard times in 2006, dipping to 1-7. They stayed near the bottom in 2007, finishing 2-6, before rebounding to post a 4-4 record in 2008. They then plummeted to the bottom of the standings once again in 2009, finishing 0-8. This marks the lone winless league record since 2005. UNLV has been the league's most consistent team, winning just a single conference games for 3 straight seasons (2005-2007) before winning 2 in 2008 and 3 in 2009.

Now here is each team's point differential in conference play since 2005.BYU owns the league's best record, but TCU has been the most dominant team in the Mountain West over the past 5 seasons. The main reason BYU has the better record is thanks to their sterling record in close games. Both BYU and TCU have played 11 one-score league games since 2005. TCU owns a decent 6-5 record in those games, but BYU is 9-2 in such contests, having not lost a close game to a conference foe since 2005. On the other end of the spectrum are the Rebels from UNLV. As noted earlier, UNLV has lost the most conference games of any Mountain West team since 2005 (32). Even worse, more than 70% of their losses (23) have been by double-digits.

With this being the end of the decade, here's the tally of conference titles.I bet you forgot about Colorado State. The Rams won 2 titles, early in the decade (2000 and 2002), continuing their solid run from the mid-90's. In the 9-season span from 1994-2002, the Rams won or shared 6 conference titles in the WAC and Mountain West. However, since 2002, the league title has been won by either BYU, TCU, or Utah. Over the past 6 seasons, the Mountain West champion has emerged with an unblemished league record (Utah in 2004, TCU in 2005, BYU in 2006 and 2007, Utah in 2008, and TCU in 2009).

And finally, what was the biggest takeway from the 00 decade in the Mountain West?
I would have to say its the rise, at least at the top, to almost a BCS-caliber league. Case in point, in the past 6 seasons, at least one Mountain West conference team has finished in the top-20 of the final BCS standings. On 3 separate occasions (2004, 2008, and 2009) the league has placed a team in the final BCS top-10. And twice more (2008 and 2009), the league has placed 2 teams in the final BCS top-15.